NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Rough night last night Deezy. Clips just didn't look like they wanted it enough. We'll get 'em tonight. Unfortunately I can't find the +9 or the +400 for the Wiz, and doubt I'll see it again. Looks like you got an excellent line.
Thad,
Rough night, indeed. Rockets showed some pride, refusing to be ousted from the playoffs on their home floor. Griffin played like the beast that he's been all playoffs long, but outside of him and CP3, they shot horribly, especially from 3PT, which is a critical component to this team's success (averaging over 30 3PA/gm in this series and shooting 42% in their 7 wins in the playoffs). I was a pretty surprised that they couldn't at least go over the 2H team total, which I based on a poor shooting 1H that I thought would regress to the mean in the 2H. They had ample opportunity in the 4th qtr and were trying hard to cut the lead down with starters staying in late, but ultimately they were resigned to heading back home where they'd have a much easier time closing out the series. I plan to continue playing on the Clips in the 1H and 2Q in game 6 and will most likely lay the wood on the ML as well since this has an extremely low chance of going back to Houston for a game 7.
Looking at the line move in the ATL/WAS game, I'm glad I got that early, but I can't say that I'm surprised it moved down. Aside from Wall being questionable for the game (I doubt that he plays), I think that the opener of 9.5 was way off. The books simply made a mistake. IMO, there's still value at 8 and I would bet it for a smaller amount than what I put on it at 9, but you may be able to catch another half point on WAS when Wall is officially ruled out closer to tip. I think there's a chance we could get some in-game value if ATL gets out to a fast start early on, especially if they have their outside shooting going early, but I expect a pretty close game most of the way.
BOL whatever you decide to do. :toast:
Was thinking the exact same thing on the Wiz. Hoping to catch another half closer to game time and expect another close game. Just hoping it doesn't further move down. Will likely be on them either way so wishing us luck.
Please post if you have any inclinations on the other game. I'm thinking I may just lay off or wait for a good in game line as of right now.
Please post if you have any inclinations on the other game. I'm thinking I may just lay off or wait for a good in game line as of right now.
Wall is in for game 5 tonight...gonna test the hand. While I've already got a pretty nice position, why not take a shot at the series? These teams are pretty evenly matched with Wall on the court, maybe even give the edge to the Wiz. Wall is the best player on the floor when he plays in this series. Pretty good chance of a hedge opportunity in game 7 of he stays healthy. The race to beat your bookmaker is on!
WAS adj series price +400 x3
WAS adj series price +400 x3
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We're gettin a little crazy today... With Tony Allen expected to be ruled out after warmups, I look forward to watching this guy reintroduce himself into the series. Tony has had him locked down for the most part... Thompson pretty much a non-factor when Allen has been guarding him. Not tonight...
Klay Thompson OVER 20.5 PTS (-120) x2
Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 3PT FGM (-200) x2
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We're gettin a little crazy today... With Tony Allen expected to be ruled out after warmups, I look forward to watching this guy reintroduce himself into the series. Tony has had him locked down for the most part... Thompson pretty much a non-factor when Allen has been guarding him. Not tonight...
Klay Thompson OVER 20.5 PTS (-120) x2
Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 3PT FGM (-200) x2
I think it was after the first or 2nd time out. I'll have to go back to the play-by-play to check.
Sorry, I actually got it after the 1st qtr ended. It was 33-31 at that point. Makes sense, because they base that off the projected pace from the closing total of 192.5...
192 / 4 qtrs = 48 pts/qtr
48 x 3(remaining qtrs) + 64 = 208
Pretty much how all in-running totals work, which makes it easy to take advantage when teams shoot an uncharacteristically low/high shooting percentage to start the game and you expect a regression to the mean. Also number of fouls for certain key players (LeBron had 2 at the time I bet the total under). The algorithms that create the in-game lines typically don't factor that data in.
192 / 4 qtrs = 48 pts/qtr
48 x 3(remaining qtrs) + 64 = 208
Pretty much how all in-running totals work, which makes it easy to take advantage when teams shoot an uncharacteristically low/high shooting percentage to start the game and you expect a regression to the mean. Also number of fouls for certain key players (LeBron had 2 at the time I bet the total under). The algorithms that create the in-game lines typically don't factor that data in.
Well said. Reason why I ask is cuz I got it during the same time and my line was 207.5. Just trying to see if my lines r skewed. BTW. Bullies look terrible.
