NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Grabbed the 5.5 and that'll probably be it for me unless there's value at the half.
There's still time for the 1Q to go over. A few GS threes wouldn't hurt
Well looks like we took it on the cheek pretty bad last night Deezy. Ended up losing everything I made from Monday's games, which is just poor money management on my behalf considering those were both good-sized positive moneyline wins. Anyway, thoughts on tonight's games? My gut leans toward the underdogs again but something tells me I'm not going to get another 2-0 on these series tonight. I already have a pretty good sized bet in on the Bulls to win the East at +550, so I'm invested even without a bet tonight and do feel like these first two games without J.R. Smith is the time to strike for Chicago. Obviously the status of CP3 is huge to the late game and we likely won't know until game time, but the +7 line (especially combined with the Clips -200 series price) seems to imply (to me at least) that Vegas leans toward him not playing. I'm also very interested in the line movements throughout the day, but do expect these games to fall much closer to the spread than the first games did, so I don't want to end up getting in at lines much worse than this morning's +6 and +7, respectively. Look forward to reading your thoughts when you post them.
Pulling the trigger on Chicago +6 and LA +8, as well as both moneylines (+215 and +290 respectively) and hoping CP3 plays. Also playing the first half and first quarter of both games, so underdogs all the way for me. A little scary for sure, and as I said earlier, I'd be slightly surprised to hit both straight up, but even one should put me ahead on the night.
I still think the Cleveland line is just a little inflated for a team without two of its starters and that now is the time for Chicago and betters alike to take advantage of a weakened Cleveland team. I do expect one of LeBron or Kyrie to come up big tonight, but Chicago has enough weapons and are well rounded enough to mitigate some of that. Hoping for another special performance from Butler and expecting a bit more from Noah.
The late game is largely a guessing game at this point as this line will move when the CP3 news becomes official. Ultimately I just think the price is too high and expect this to be a fairly close game with or without him. My biggest worry is a monster game from Harden, as I think that the most notable little talked about story from game one was how tentative and unwilling to take it to the hole he was. I do expect much more aggression tonight and might even take a look at his over prop(s) despite my Clips play.
I feel I could write even more about these games/series but am alas at work and only have so much time. In the end it boils down to value and gut feel on both these games and I'm really hoping for a repeat performance of the series openers. Let's go doggies and good luck tonight Deezy and everyone else playing.
:toast:
I still think the Cleveland line is just a little inflated for a team without two of its starters and that now is the time for Chicago and betters alike to take advantage of a weakened Cleveland team. I do expect one of LeBron or Kyrie to come up big tonight, but Chicago has enough weapons and are well rounded enough to mitigate some of that. Hoping for another special performance from Butler and expecting a bit more from Noah.
The late game is largely a guessing game at this point as this line will move when the CP3 news becomes official. Ultimately I just think the price is too high and expect this to be a fairly close game with or without him. My biggest worry is a monster game from Harden, as I think that the most notable little talked about story from game one was how tentative and unwilling to take it to the hole he was. I do expect much more aggression tonight and might even take a look at his over prop(s) despite my Clips play.
I feel I could write even more about these games/series but am alas at work and only have so much time. In the end it boils down to value and gut feel on both these games and I'm really hoping for a repeat performance of the series openers. Let's go doggies and good luck tonight Deezy and everyone else playing.
:toast:
Well this is looking like a lost cause. Was hoping it wouldn't he both LeBron AND Kyrie. On to the next one I guess. But damn this is hard to watch/stomach.
On a more worthwhile (less complaining) note, I think the Harden totals are just a bit too high and I'll likely be laying off, even though it would likely be a good Clipper hedge.
P.S. - Hope you don't mind the many/lengthy posts in your thread Deezy. Still looking forward to any insight on the late game. C'mon Chris Paul!
On a more worthwhile (less complaining) note, I think the Harden totals are just a bit too high and I'll likely be laying off, even though it would likely be a good Clipper hedge.
P.S. - Hope you don't mind the many/lengthy posts in your thread Deezy. Still looking forward to any insight on the late game. C'mon Chris Paul!
Great write up Thad. Sorry about not having much input today. Still reeling from the last two days... ugly ugly ugly. Just needed to regroup a little bit. I think that sitting out the first game or two of these series or at least limiting the action to lower unit amounts is the way to go until you can get a feel of how these teams will play each other. I'm still shocked at the way the Warriors and Curry, especially, shot last night. They just didn't have their A-game and it led to a very rare home loss.
I made a play on CLE 1Q tonight right after I saw that Thompson was starting at the four spot, but I didn't get a chance to post it here. I really like that lineup for the Cavs much better than anything else they can put out there at the moment. And with the way Shumpert is playing so far tonight, both offensively and defensively, Blatt is going to have to consider keeping him in there as the starter even after JR gets back. JR is better suited for the 6th man role anyway and that comes from watching every game he played in NY for four years.
I do have a play I'll post for tonight, the same kind that really helped me pad the total units won in the first round. Much like the way CLE came storming out of the gate after a game 1 loss, I'm expecting something similar from Houston tonight - increased energy, more aggressiveness and better awareness from Harden, who needs to cut down on the turnovers and get back to going to the hoop more, as well as better rebounding and defense, especially from Ariza, Smith & Brewer, who all looked like they were a step behind defensively on Monday. We will just have to see though because Houston's defense thus far in the playoffs has been lackluster to say the least. Additionally, with Paul out a second game, I'm not sure that we're going to see the same effort from the Clippers without their star this time around. That first game that a key player is out for a team always seems to result in increased energy and a sense of pride as well as some key contributions from players off the bench (a la Rivers and Crawford in game 1). I like the Rockets for the game, but like the 1 quarter even more. GLTA
HOU -2 (-120) 1Q x5
I made a play on CLE 1Q tonight right after I saw that Thompson was starting at the four spot, but I didn't get a chance to post it here. I really like that lineup for the Cavs much better than anything else they can put out there at the moment. And with the way Shumpert is playing so far tonight, both offensively and defensively, Blatt is going to have to consider keeping him in there as the starter even after JR gets back. JR is better suited for the 6th man role anyway and that comes from watching every game he played in NY for four years.
I do have a play I'll post for tonight, the same kind that really helped me pad the total units won in the first round. Much like the way CLE came storming out of the gate after a game 1 loss, I'm expecting something similar from Houston tonight - increased energy, more aggressiveness and better awareness from Harden, who needs to cut down on the turnovers and get back to going to the hoop more, as well as better rebounding and defense, especially from Ariza, Smith & Brewer, who all looked like they were a step behind defensively on Monday. We will just have to see though because Houston's defense thus far in the playoffs has been lackluster to say the least. Additionally, with Paul out a second game, I'm not sure that we're going to see the same effort from the Clippers without their star this time around. That first game that a key player is out for a team always seems to result in increased energy and a sense of pride as well as some key contributions from players off the bench (a la Rivers and Crawford in game 1). I like the Rockets for the game, but like the 1 quarter even more. GLTA
HOU -2 (-120) 1Q x5
Your thoughts are always welcome in this thread! As well as the updates, IE.
Much appreciated guys :0008
Adding...
Adding...
LAC TT UNDER 26.5 1Q x1
LAC TT UNDER 52.5 1Q x2
These both worked in game one, although the full game team total lost, but the same idea applies here. Don't expect the Clippers office to be as efficient without Paul.
GLTA
:toast:
Adding...
LAC TT UNDER 26.5 1Q x1
LAC TT UNDER 52.5 1Q x2
These both worked in game one, although the full game team total lost, but the same idea applies here. Don't expect the Clippers office to be as efficient without Paul.
GLTA
:toast:
And AGAIN the Rockets play horrific defense in the 2nd qtr to ruin my 1H TT. There is no doubt we have a pattern here...
Total pts by game for Rockets opponents in 2nd quarters of the playoffs:
36, 27, 36, 36, 28, 27 and now 41 tonight.
That's an astonishing average of 33 pts per 2nd qtr, which will only get worse on the road (they gave up a combined 72 in both 2nd qtrs in Dallas). Looks like we already have 2nd quarter plays for games 3 and 4 of this series!
Total pts by game for Rockets opponents in 2nd quarters of the playoffs:
36, 27, 36, 36, 28, 27 and now 41 tonight.
That's an astonishing average of 33 pts per 2nd qtr, which will only get worse on the road (they gave up a combined 72 in both 2nd qtrs in Dallas). Looks like we already have 2nd quarter plays for games 3 and 4 of this series!
Tailing all four of those Deezy. Love the info you posted on Houston's 2nd quarter defensive struggles. Also playing Clips -4 for the game (bought the half). Best of luck and please post if you have anything on the early game.
Thanks oceanguy. It's great to share an angle on here that works out in a way that we can all profit. We'll be looking for more of the same in game 4 when the 1H team totals and 2nd qtr totals are up on the board.
News just officially broke that Wall will not play in the early game so the markets are reacting to that. I'm hoping to be able to catch a +4.5 or +5 on the Wizards before game time. Looking at a possible 1Q play in the late game as well.
News just officially broke that Wall will not play in the early game so the markets are reacting to that. I'm hoping to be able to catch a +4.5 or +5 on the Wizards before game time. Looking at a possible 1Q play in the late game as well.
I believe we will see a lower scoring, grind-it-out type of game as these teams adjust to a couple of injuries to key players (Gasol/Irving). I'm more confident in the first half going under than anything else.
CLE/CHI UNDER 49.5 1Q x2
CLE/CHI UNDER 98 1H x5
CLE/CHI UNDER 195 x2
GLTA
:toast:
CLE/CHI UNDER 49.5 1Q x2
CLE/CHI UNDER 98 1H x5
CLE/CHI UNDER 195 x2
GLTA
:toast:
