NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Early one for Weds
Early one for Weds
Playing this now, because I only see the line moving up. I was hoping for 5 to show again, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Not a huge fan of laying the wood, but in this situation I think it's warranted. I feel pretty confident that the Grizz will take care of business, Conley or no. The question is, how ready is Portland to go home. It will either be a blowout early on and we see the Blazers quit, or they will keep it close late into the fourth. Either way, the Grizz finish 'em off.
MEM -4 (-140)
Risking x7 to win x5
GLTA
Early one for Weds
Playing this now, because I only see the line moving up. I was hoping for 5 to show again, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Not a huge fan of laying the wood, but in this situation I think it's warranted. I feel pretty confident that the Grizz will take care of business, Conley or no. The question is, how ready is Portland to go home. It will either be a blowout early on and we see the Blazers quit, or they will keep it close late into the fourth. Either way, the Grizz finish 'em off.
MEM -4 (-140)
Risking x7 to win x5
GLTA
Teaser
Teaser
Disclaimer: I have ATL ML in an open parlay and I do expect them to win this game.
This may not be the wisest decision on my part, but the more I look back on this playoff matchup, the more apparent it becomes that the Hawks do not warrant being a 9 point favorite over ANY playoff team right now, let alone a Brooklyn team that they have faced in four straight games. Atlanta has played .500 ball over their last 20 games, yes TWENTY. The longer this series goes on, the more familiar these teams become with each other and the closer the games get. I believe that the Hawks can grind out a close win tonight given their coaching edge and the extra boost from the crowd that they will receive at home. So, while I still believe it is very likely that the Hawks will win, I think there is value on the line and that Brooklyn can keep it within double digits. Again, maybe not the wisest of bets, but since I feel just as strongly about Memphis closing out their series tonight, I'm going to hedge some and put Brooklyn in a teaser, while giving myself a little extra cushion. I'll be rooting hard for this to stay within the 13 tonight.
2-Team Teaser:
BKN +13
MEM -2
Risking x3 to win x2
I also have a strong lean to the under, but am hoping for a 202 or at least a 201 to show late right before tip.
Teaser
Disclaimer: I have ATL ML in an open parlay and I do expect them to win this game.
This may not be the wisest decision on my part, but the more I look back on this playoff matchup, the more apparent it becomes that the Hawks do not warrant being a 9 point favorite over ANY playoff team right now, let alone a Brooklyn team that they have faced in four straight games. Atlanta has played .500 ball over their last 20 games, yes TWENTY. The longer this series goes on, the more familiar these teams become with each other and the closer the games get. I believe that the Hawks can grind out a close win tonight given their coaching edge and the extra boost from the crowd that they will receive at home. So, while I still believe it is very likely that the Hawks will win, I think there is value on the line and that Brooklyn can keep it within double digits. Again, maybe not the wisest of bets, but since I feel just as strongly about Memphis closing out their series tonight, I'm going to hedge some and put Brooklyn in a teaser, while giving myself a little extra cushion. I'll be rooting hard for this to stay within the 13 tonight.
2-Team Teaser:
BKN +13
MEM -2
Risking x3 to win x2
I also have a strong lean to the under, but am hoping for a 202 or at least a 201 to show late right before tip.
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I'm thinking about playing the ML myself, but would hold off until closer to game time. I think we'll see some 6's pop up. It's been my gut feeling all along that this series would go 7 games, but if the Clips lose tonight, I don't see them covering the spread. My thoughts are that the value tonight is probably on the ML at anything above 2/1 and I've already found a +215 out there. I'm going to hold out a little bit longer and see if something higher than 225 pops up in case we see a move to 6.
...as I'm writing this, I see the line jumped to 6 and +225 is available. :scared
Agree. I just have a feeling the Clips go all out as this is their last chance at making a run and SA is on their downward side..Just have a feeling Blake will go off the next two games..I think at this point they know what they need to do. Just hope Rivers keeps Barnes out as much as possible except for defensive scenarios...GL
Any thoughts on the line going up with majority of public on Clips? not by a wide margin, but SA is certainly not a huge public play from what I can see, yet line holding steady and going up in some places..
Don't want to Hijack D's thread but I'm sure he has thoughts on this as well..
I call BS on this line move..lol Reverse line movement..:SIB
On a serious note the public always has a short term memory and most (public) base their decision on history. In this case, the line to me will have no barring and probably wont even be a factor..Books have to put this type of line up based on home court advantage, game scenario and public perception..JMHO
Ok, so I grabbed a little on the ML earlier and then it went up some and now it's gone back down. I may get involved in-game, but will have to wait and see.
LAC ML +220 x2.5 to win x5.5
To respond to locman's question (no worries about hijacking), I'm not really worried about the public money. I don't see overly lopsided action on any one side. Yes, it does look the number of tickets written favors the Clippers slightly, but who the hell really knows. I only factor stuff like that in when it's so obviously skewed to one side and it's obvious that the big money is on the other side. Even then, it doesn't change my handicap of the game. It might just affect my unit size or persuade me to lay off a side, but that's about it. The one thing that's changed merket-wise in the last few years, which we really see a lot more of in the playoffs, is that sports wagering on major American sports has really grown on a global scale. You can have your "smart money" coming into Nevada/offshore on one side, while there's some betting syndicate in Asia pounding the line on the other side. Suffice it to say, I don't put too much stock in these bet percentages, but it sure is interesting to follow. Maybe the most telling thing in terms of line moves is what happens right up before game time, so it is interesting that the last move appears to be on the Clippers side.
This easy Bulls win is a fantastic way to close out the last leg of my four team parlay. No sweat for a profit of x10 :00hour
LAC ML +220 x2.5 to win x5.5
To respond to locman's question (no worries about hijacking), I'm not really worried about the public money. I don't see overly lopsided action on any one side. Yes, it does look the number of tickets written favors the Clippers slightly, but who the hell really knows. I only factor stuff like that in when it's so obviously skewed to one side and it's obvious that the big money is on the other side. Even then, it doesn't change my handicap of the game. It might just affect my unit size or persuade me to lay off a side, but that's about it. The one thing that's changed merket-wise in the last few years, which we really see a lot more of in the playoffs, is that sports wagering on major American sports has really grown on a global scale. You can have your "smart money" coming into Nevada/offshore on one side, while there's some betting syndicate in Asia pounding the line on the other side. Suffice it to say, I don't put too much stock in these bet percentages, but it sure is interesting to follow. Maybe the most telling thing in terms of line moves is what happens right up before game time, so it is interesting that the last move appears to be on the Clippers side.
This easy Bulls win is a fantastic way to close out the last leg of my four team parlay. No sweat for a profit of x10 :00hour
