NBA pre-flop
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
I put in a small series wager on Porty because I think there is value at this number and at worst, I believe I will have an opportunity to extract some value from this later on the series at the very least. Nothing about Denver's game 1 win seemed overly convincing to me and while Jokic is playing extremely well, they are still heavily reliant on Murray play very well in order to win and his performances have been inconsitent in the playoffs. Meanwhile, you have a hungry veteran group lead by a self-aware underrated superstar on the other side of the court playing really well and looking to prove themselves. This group is trying to get past the conference semifinals for the first time in 19 years as a franchise, but also as a first for Lillard, McCollum and Co. They are playing like they have something to prove after having lost Nurkic with Kanter stepping up and a chip on his shoulder (literally?) as well. Meanwhile, this is this Denver group's first experience in the playoffs period, let alone being a relevant contender. I do think Denver's home court edge is largely overrated - a product of a grueling regular season, while the home edge in Portland is just as strong. With Portland just a 4-pt fav in game 2, they will have every opportunity to steal one on the road tonight, if not, then in game 5. I have these teams rated as even on a nuetral court and the line tonight reflects that, so the value on the series is on Portland at this point, even priced down to +210.
PORTLAND to win Series +220 2.5x
PORTLAND to win Series +220 2.5x
I see alot of people on the OVER, but I honestly think that UNDER is the right play in this one tonight. I am going to hold out for a better number with live wagering, but I doubt this game clears 220 and probably not the opener of 217.5. Just an opinion at this point, but I'll be looking for number around 221.5 with in-play to go under, but of course it depends on the early flow of the game.
When Murray scores over 20....
When Murray scores over 20....
Also - and I meant to post this earlier but forgot about it - this applies to all remaining games in the series, I know that with certain sites such as BetOnline you can parlay a player prop with the game outcome. Well, it makes a ton of sense IF you like Denver TO WIN the game, then parlay that with Jamaal Murray's point total over 19.5 or 20. These two outcomes are highly correllated and that is how Denver's postseason as played out thus far. In terms of live betting tonight and moving forward, pay close attention to how Murray plays early... is he being aggressive?... is he driving to the hoop and/or getting open looks?... Is he hitting shots early? IF NOT, then you can probably safely look to Portland on the live line to win the game straight up or cover a short number if that is what's being offered.
When Murray scores over 20....
Also - and I meant to post this earlier but forgot about it - this applies to all remaining games in the series, I know that with certain sites such as BetOnline you can parlay a player prop with the game outcome. Well, it makes a ton of sense IF you like Denver TO WIN the game, then parlay that with Jamaal Murray's point total over 19.5 or 20. These two outcomes are highly correllated and that is how Denver's postseason as played out thus far. In terms of live betting tonight and moving forward, pay close attention to how Murray plays early... is he being aggressive?... is he driving to the hoop and/or getting open looks?... Is he hitting shots early? IF NOT, then you can probably safely look to Portland on the live line to win the game straight up or cover a short number if that is what's being offered.
I would holf off on that for the moment if you can live bet it, you can probably get an under 202 or so if you wait for the first few minutes of the 3rd qtr to play out, rather than hoping for the game to fall under 197
