NBA pre-flop
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
hold off. have to see some defense first. clippers leading should help keep game close and slow down pace late, but i need to see some sign of that before playing under.
played 1H as well... Nuggz definitely have more talent and Joker is dominant, just not sure any of these guys will be comformatble in a game 7 playoff elimination setting. Spurs & Pop know all about it. I'll take experience here with the team that hasn't shown it is anything but equal to its opponent, especially early on in game of this series.
PHI/TOR
PHI/TOR
Check out these stats... really makes Philly's win in Game 2 so much more suprising:
PHI
Embiid 12 pts, 5 reb (2-7 FG)
Simmons 6 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast (3-6 FG)
Harris 9 pts, 11 reb (3-11 FG)
3PT: 10-35
Turnovers: 19
Steals: 5
FTs: 24-26
-----
TOR
Leonard 35 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast (13-24)
Siakam 21 pts, 7 reb (9-25)
Lowry 20 pts, 5 & 5 (7-17)
3PT: 10-37
Turnovers: 10
Steals: 10
FTs 13-15
-----
Here's the catch:
- Offensive rebounding was even
- Made 3PT even
- Toronto clearly took better care of the ball
- AND they took 14 more shots, while PHI finished with +16 rebounding differential
Key was the FT disparity:
PHI starters went 19-19 from the line, while TOR shot it will, they attempted just 15 FTs total.
94-89 Final:
5 point margin... BUT if you watched the whole game, the final score might seem misleading becuase it felt like PHI controlled the game for the most part. PHI held leads of 18 and 19 pts in the 1H and led by as much as 13 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th qtr.
TOR was as high as a -470 favorite to win the series before last night. They are now down to -190 and apparently you can find as low as -160 (according to OddsShark).
Here is the series odds history:
4/24: PHI+180 / TOR-220 (Westgate opener)
4/25: PHI+190 / TOR-230
4/26: PHI+205 / TOR-245
4/27: PHI+240 / TOR-290 (before gm1)
4/28: PHI+335 / TOR-470 (after gm1)
4/30: PHI+140 / TOR-160 (lowest line)
Curr.: PHI+165 / TOR-190
One thing will remain consistent this series:
COACHING edge to TOR.
Yes, I give the 1st year coach Nurse a leg up on Brown. In fact, I'd probably rank Brown as the worst coach remaining in the playoffs.
The most telling thing might be the early line movement in game 3:
O/U 216 (opener)
PHI -1.5
----
TOR -1 -106 (Pinnacle, currently)
O/U 214
Meanwhile, most every other book sits at PK'em. The move is natural given the Raptors were the last team to lose, but the move through zero at the sharpest global book says a lot more.
Total-wise, the two point move down is reaction to game 1 finishing 20 points below the total (223) and game 2 falling 37 points short (220). I do see a small window of value on the over there as I have the game 3 total at around 216.5/217 in Philly.
My take is if you can find that series price on TOR -160, I think you have a damn good bet right there, but I don't know if that's still available. It does look to me like there is still some value at -190 with the expectation that the series goes back to Toronto tied 2-2. There is no doubt that the 76ers have a strong collection of talent, though inexperienced when it comes to a deep playoff run (save Redick). However, the veteran experience on this Raptors team combined with superior coaching should be worth at least one away win in Philly and game 3 seems ripe for the picking.
Finally, I'll wrap up this superfluous post with an incredible graphic I came across this morning. This is truly remarkable when you look at the players that Kawhi is being compared with in the playoffs:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="tl" dir="ltr">Regular season TS% Kawhi vs playoff Kawhi vs playoff Field. <a href="https://twitter.com/uncle_vick_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@uncle_vick_</a><a href="https://twitter.com/alfredcuzzo1987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@alfredcuzzo1987</a><a href="https://twitter.com/JCMacriNBA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JCMacriNBA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnickFilmSchool?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnickFilmSchool</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKnicksWall?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheKnicksWall</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/knickanator?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@knickanator</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/goknickstape?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@goknickstape</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Nykterryandtray?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Nykterryandtray</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnicksCentral?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnicksCentral</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/knickscenario?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@knickscenario</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnicksFanTv?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnicksFanTv</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/SuYork_1023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SuYork_1023</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ptknicksblog?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ptknicksblog</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBATwitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBATwitter</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBAPlayoffs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nba?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nba</a> <a href="https://t.co/UNsNZl35iv">pic.twitter.com/UNsNZl35iv</a></p>— Shuaib (@ShuaibA12) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShuaibA12/status/1122910266830807041?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Credit: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bw1hsJABMn4/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Game 3 play:
TOR-pk 5x
PHI/TOR
Check out these stats... really makes Philly's win in Game 2 so much more suprising:
PHI
Embiid 12 pts, 5 reb (2-7 FG)
Simmons 6 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast (3-6 FG)
Harris 9 pts, 11 reb (3-11 FG)
3PT: 10-35
Turnovers: 19
Steals: 5
FTs: 24-26
-----
TOR
Leonard 35 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast (13-24)
Siakam 21 pts, 7 reb (9-25)
Lowry 20 pts, 5 & 5 (7-17)
3PT: 10-37
Turnovers: 10
Steals: 10
FTs 13-15
-----
Here's the catch:
- Offensive rebounding was even
- Made 3PT even
- Toronto clearly took better care of the ball
- AND they took 14 more shots, while PHI finished with +16 rebounding differential
Key was the FT disparity:
PHI starters went 19-19 from the line, while TOR shot it will, they attempted just 15 FTs total.
94-89 Final:
5 point margin... BUT if you watched the whole game, the final score might seem misleading becuase it felt like PHI controlled the game for the most part. PHI held leads of 18 and 19 pts in the 1H and led by as much as 13 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th qtr.
TOR was as high as a -470 favorite to win the series before last night. They are now down to -190 and apparently you can find as low as -160 (according to OddsShark).
Here is the series odds history:
4/24: PHI+180 / TOR-220 (Westgate opener)
4/25: PHI+190 / TOR-230
4/26: PHI+205 / TOR-245
4/27: PHI+240 / TOR-290 (before gm1)
4/28: PHI+335 / TOR-470 (after gm1)
4/30: PHI+140 / TOR-160 (lowest line)
Curr.: PHI+165 / TOR-190
One thing will remain consistent this series:
COACHING edge to TOR.
Yes, I give the 1st year coach Nurse a leg up on Brown. In fact, I'd probably rank Brown as the worst coach remaining in the playoffs.
The most telling thing might be the early line movement in game 3:
O/U 216 (opener)
PHI -1.5
----
TOR -1 -106 (Pinnacle, currently)
O/U 214
Meanwhile, most every other book sits at PK'em. The move is natural given the Raptors were the last team to lose, but the move through zero at the sharpest global book says a lot more.
Total-wise, the two point move down is reaction to game 1 finishing 20 points below the total (223) and game 2 falling 37 points short (220). I do see a small window of value on the over there as I have the game 3 total at around 216.5/217 in Philly.
My take is if you can find that series price on TOR -160, I think you have a damn good bet right there, but I don't know if that's still available. It does look to me like there is still some value at -190 with the expectation that the series goes back to Toronto tied 2-2. There is no doubt that the 76ers have a strong collection of talent, though inexperienced when it comes to a deep playoff run (save Redick). However, the veteran experience on this Raptors team combined with superior coaching should be worth at least one away win in Philly and game 3 seems ripe for the picking.
Finally, I'll wrap up this superfluous post with an incredible graphic I came across this morning. This is truly remarkable when you look at the players that Kawhi is being compared with in the playoffs:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="tl" dir="ltr">Regular season TS% Kawhi vs playoff Kawhi vs playoff Field. <a href="https://twitter.com/uncle_vick_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@uncle_vick_</a><a href="https://twitter.com/alfredcuzzo1987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@alfredcuzzo1987</a><a href="https://twitter.com/JCMacriNBA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JCMacriNBA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnickFilmSchool?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnickFilmSchool</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKnicksWall?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheKnicksWall</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/knickanator?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@knickanator</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/goknickstape?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@goknickstape</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Nykterryandtray?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Nykterryandtray</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnicksCentral?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnicksCentral</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/knickscenario?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@knickscenario</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KnicksFanTv?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KnicksFanTv</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/SuYork_1023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SuYork_1023</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ptknicksblog?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ptknicksblog</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBATwitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBATwitter</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBAPlayoffs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nba?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nba</a> <a href="https://t.co/UNsNZl35iv">pic.twitter.com/UNsNZl35iv</a></p>— Shuaib (@ShuaibA12) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShuaibA12/status/1122910266830807041?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Credit: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bw1hsJABMn4/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Game 3 play:
TOR-pk 5x
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In stark contrast to my previously lengthy post, I will follow this one up by mentioning only that I did make a series bet yesterday... Strictly a value play that I believe I will have the opportunity to hedge or extract value from at some point in this series.
HOU to win series (vs GSW) +320 5x
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