NBA pre-flop
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Hey DZ. Just wondering why Mia? Atl has beat them 3 times. Not trying to be negative, just wondering about your insight. Thanks
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- Sep 1, 2012
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Expected Lineup
PG Trae Young
SG Kevin Huerter GTD
SF Kent Bazemore
PF D. Dedmon GTD
C Alex Len GTD
INJURIES
C Miles Plumlee INACT
F T. Prince INACT
F O. Spellman INACT
F John Collins GTD
C D. Dedmon GTD
G Kevin Huerter GTD
C Alex Len GTD
No problem, bud. There are alot of reasons I like the Heat tonight, but just to sum up a few real quick...
1 - You already mentioned... TRIPLE revenge.
2 - MIA avenging close home loss from earlier in season.
3 - Second leg of B2B for ATL coming from Chi yest.
4 - ATL has not shown up well in B2B situations this season, sporting a 2-5 record ATS and 3-4 SU with the two covers coming against the tanking Suns (during their 17-game losing streak) and a 3-pt home win vs CLE who was also playing B2B and in the middle of a 1-18 stretch (non-cover there). Other B2B losses were brutal showings, including a 26-pt loss @CLE, a 5-pt home loss to the Knicks, a 14-pt loss @CHA and a 16-pt home loss to the Magic.
5 - Tough situational spot otherwise for ATL expending a lot of energy in home & home vCHI with tough win after the 4-OT game.
6 - Consensus on ATL side, but line move from 8 to 10/10.5 is a strong indicator, but the inactives for ATL are obviously a strong part of that move.
7 - Can't get too carried away with this info, but word is out that the team was seen partying late in South Beach after having flown in from CHI.
8 - With a weak opponent at home, Miami knows they must win this game to have a shot at a playoff berth as they only have 3 or 4 games against bottom-10 opponents remaining on the schedule. Furthermore, they should feel some urgency to win this one going away as they need to save some energy for a critical away game at Charlotte on Wednesday which factors heavily into the playoff race.
9 - More generally, in the post-LeBron era, MIA has ramped up their level of play in March, especially against weak/bottom-feeding opponents at home. I'll let you or anyone go check out their record the last 4 years, but they did get the month off to a strong start against Brooklyn on Saturday night.
Had I not missed the early move, I would have played Miami in the first quarter and half. I will be hunting for live-betting opportunities in this one. Look for Miami to make a strong push for a playoff spot in the last month and a half of the season. This is a play-on team, especially at home the rest of the way. Spoelstra is a good coach who eats, sleeps and breaths film, so he will come prepared for thier 4th matchup of the season against the Hawks. He also knows how to put his teams in position for a run at a playoff spot late in the season, even when sitting multple games under .500
GL
Mavs are openly tanking again and I have no problem with laying the juice. Played last night..
ORL -300 12x to win 4x
...the only question remaining today is if I am going to parlay the Heat (vs Cavs) with the Mavs for something extra.
ORL -300 12x to win 4x
...the only question remaining today is if I am going to parlay the Heat (vs Cavs) with the Mavs for something extra.
No sweat here... and it shouldn't be with the Mavs on the road, especially versus the top 2/3rds of the league. Just for some context and to keep evreyone informed here, the Mavs 2019 1st round pick that was traded to Atlanta in the Doncic-Young deal is top 5 protected this year, so they have some work to do. The common thought is that Dallas would prefer to delay conveying the pick as that also pushes back the 2 picks they conveyed to the Knicks in the Porzingis trade. This should be fun, especially as Dallas gets closer to Atlanta in the standings late in the season.
Knicks and Mavs are auto-fades. We'll see who else we can add to this list as we wind down towards the end.
Tuesday tank-a-thon
Tuesday tank-a-thon
Three prime tankers on deck tonight.... Knicks, Dallas & LA.
DAL...
Doncic questionable tonight. Said he felt a "pop" in his knee. Dallas will not take any risks and I expect him to sit. Spurs ML looking juicy at sub-200.
IND...
Pacers line at home vs Knicks is predicatably hight. A good parlay candidate if you want to bring down the risk amount on the Spurs ML.
LA...
Lakers are an interesting case tonight, clearly tanking and playing a bad team on the road. They've shut most of the young guys down and LeBron is on a minutes limit. It couldn't be more clear at this point that this team is not trying to win games and they can really do themselves a favor in terms of potential draft order by dropping some more games as they are bunched up in the standings with a few other non-playoff teams who have similar records. Everyone is aware of the Lakers recent skid and some might call it a season-long skid, but it is not like they only lose to good or middling teams. The last month included losses to Phoenix, Memphis, New Orleans and Atlanta and those were supposed to be games in which they were "trying" as they were still in playoff contention. I don't see how things would be any different tonight and Chicago at a pick'em looks very enticing. I will probably spend a little more time reading the tea leaves on this game with the optimal strategy being to wait until after tip to get a better read on the Lakers motivation and jump in with an in-running wager.
gl
Tuesday tank-a-thon
Three prime tankers on deck tonight.... Knicks, Dallas & LA.
DAL...
Doncic questionable tonight. Said he felt a "pop" in his knee. Dallas will not take any risks and I expect him to sit. Spurs ML looking juicy at sub-200.
IND...
Pacers line at home vs Knicks is predicatably hight. A good parlay candidate if you want to bring down the risk amount on the Spurs ML.
LA...
Lakers are an interesting case tonight, clearly tanking and playing a bad team on the road. They've shut most of the young guys down and LeBron is on a minutes limit. It couldn't be more clear at this point that this team is not trying to win games and they can really do themselves a favor in terms of potential draft order by dropping some more games as they are bunched up in the standings with a few other non-playoff teams who have similar records. Everyone is aware of the Lakers recent skid and some might call it a season-long skid, but it is not like they only lose to good or middling teams. The last month included losses to Phoenix, Memphis, New Orleans and Atlanta and those were supposed to be games in which they were "trying" as they were still in playoff contention. I don't see how things would be any different tonight and Chicago at a pick'em looks very enticing. I will probably spend a little more time reading the tea leaves on this game with the optimal strategy being to wait until after tip to get a better read on the Lakers motivation and jump in with an in-running wager.
gl
If you can put the DENVER ML tongiht (vs DAL) in an open parlay to tie up with the SAN ANTONIO ML (vs NYK) tomorrow night, I would definitely do that. It is still alot of juice to swallow, but a 20-25% ROI over 24 hrs ain't bad.
:0074
:0074
- Mar 19, 2006
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Sure. I know these seem obvious, but when you are betting MLs against teams who are losing with purpose, the return on investment far exceeds the risk.
