NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting

C

coolhandluke

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axp59 said:
you old fart! LOL

man, I go to the supermarket and see his dressing and wonder...where did time go. I've seen Butch...Sting...dozens of times. Man, sometimes when you're getting older, you can't escape even in a supermarket!!!
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Boy ain't that the truth, I find myself also thinking about things that never entered my mind in younger years...................
 
axp59

axp59

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coolhandluke said:
Do you also consider how evenly matched the teams are which might lead to an OT situation???
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I do, that's one of the things that scares many unders players obviously. When I look at the total, I have to consider the side. Not where the books set the side number but where I cap it. Books only care about public perception and you can't go by their side number. cap the game yourself and understand how close the game will really be. You're going to get moosed with OT as an unders player so you got to learn to live with it.

side note: i did hit one OT under this season.
 
axp59

axp59

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grindstone said:
I hear you brother, thanks again for the info and also why don't you play sides?? I think with all these great cappers here we can pick one game a day. What do you think?? I'm just asking hope you don't mind.
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Bro, that was part of my 'lie' as explained to boss. I'm a capper GrindStone. Of course I cap sides. LOL I just didn't want to get bothered over there. Most of the young guys over there look at playing totals as taboo or you're less of capper cause you play totals.
Remember a while back someone pissed me off because they said what I did was like flipping a coin. There is no such thing as capping totals. That's when I met FlippaCoin...for sticking up for me. If I tell people I only cap totals then I get less hassles. We saw how that mess ended up.

I did see a note from an old Gent there today asking me to play out the POD so I can claim my rightful place. After tonight, with this win and a loss on CLE by IWM888...I'm 10 units ahead of her and Chump for the season. It feels good but I only entered that contest because a friend told me I couldn't win it. He was boxed about 2 months ago for bashing some guy.

Long story short...I cap sides and feel free to throw em out there.
 
t20boss

t20boss

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axp59 said:
OK boss, We've been chewin the same dirt for a few so I got to fess up. I've already told this story to KB in the past. I lied! The reason I said I didn't do anything else over there but the NBA was because I didn't want anyone bothering me for plays.
Remember when I posted that info for the NHL? I was doing quite well with that so I thought it would be nice to share. My inbox was bombarded and I swear I got 50 friend request in one day. Just to get the 'system'. I regretted the day I released that I had NHL info. I think someone here is actually playing that right now and is turning a profit.

But today, I'm just an Action Junkie. What could it hurt betting 1/20U on a college game to watch it. I hit my NBA POD so that means I could lose about 19 CBB games and still be even. I know I'm in it for the money and not the action. I just need to get this out of my system once in a while.

You are right sir, I have been to the window tonight and that means I'm done.

How's your card tonight old friend?
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I kinda figured you were a scheister (as my German uncle used to say back in the day). Don't know too many people that know B-Ball as well as you do and don't look at both pro and college. Never saw you in Lipps NHL thread, so figured you were'nt down with pucks either. But I did see you tip yourself a few times like you mentioned - damn, sharks were all over ya.

Small play on my UCLA Bruins to beat the hell out of VCU tonight - I see you've got a play w/VCU - I wish you well - one of us will win. :0corn

Fun reading the posts from the new guys just jumping on board and wondering how all these people that just joined a couple of days ago all ventured into this thread. Hope some of the other old guys like Chump, Turc, etc make it over here at some point..
 
t20boss

t20boss

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axp59 said:
Excellent question. I think the value is inherently on the under. The public is overs crazy.
I go to a diner and my waitress is a 'gambler'. Doesn't cap games, just picks teams for the action. I give her winners all the time except she won't play em. I come back the next day and expecting her to be happy but she isn't. She played the over. This happens all the time. She can't and won't pull the trigger on the under because NBA games are 'high scoring'.
With that said, the books know this. On most nights, you'll find a square play on the over. That's where we come in. I try to spot lines overnight that looks odd and I present it to you guys. We then cram and find that gem of an under we call our UOD!!!
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Another great analogy from my man, Ax. Write down these words of wisdom, everyone - this man has so many excellent philosophies - and it will definitely help you out in the long run. Tractor pulls, gas stations, now waitresses gambling... :thumb:
 
axp59

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t20boss said:
I kinda figured you were a scheister (as my German uncle used to say back in the day). Don't know too many people that know B-Ball as well as you do and don't look at both pro and college. Never saw you in Lipps NHL thread, so figured you were'nt down with pucks either. But I did see you tip yourself a few times like you mentioned - damn, sharks were all over ya.

Small play on my UCLA Bruins to beat the hell out of VCU tonight - I see you've got a play w/VCU - I wish you well - one of us will win. :0corn

Fun reading the posts from the new guys just jumping on board and wondering how all these people that just joined a couple of days ago all ventured into this thread. Hope some of the other old guys like Chump, Turc, etc make it over here at some point..
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I think your Bruins will take care of business. I really like anything that comes out of the CAA every year. They always give you something. Remember when VCU beat Duke a few years back.
I sure hope some of the 'older' minds migrate here. They would love it. Turc is enjoying the fame right now. He absolutely deserves it. I hope they don't drive him crazy. I'm getting to know a few newer guys...like that old fart Luke. LOL This is going to work out just fine.
 
axp59

axp59

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t20boss said:
Another great analogy from my man, Ax. Write down these words of wisdom, everyone - this man has so many excellent philosophies - and it will definitely help you out in the long run. Tractor pulls, gas stations, now waitresses gambling... :thumb:
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Dude, please tell me you really don't save those stories. The tractor pull was pretty good. I should look that up and give it to Grindstone...This is why I bet unders...physics...tractor pulls..waitresses...What the F are you talking about. Are you on drugs?????
 
grindstone

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axp59 said:
Bro, that was part of my 'lie' as explained to boss. I'm a capper GrindStone. Of course I cap sides. LOL I just didn't want to get bothered over there. Most of the young guys over there look at playing totals as taboo or you're less of capper cause you play totals.
Remember a while back someone pissed me off because they said what I did was like flipping a coin. There is no such thing as capping totals. That's when I met FlippaCoin...for sticking up for me. If I tell people I only cap totals then I get less hassles. We saw how that mess ended up.

I did see a note from an old Gent there today asking me to play out the POD so I can claim my rightful place. After tonight, with this win and a loss on CLE by IWM888...I'm 10 units ahead of her and Chump for the season. It feels good but I only entered that contest because a friend told me I couldn't win it. He was boxed about 2 months ago for bashing some guy.

Long story short...I cap sides and feel free to throw em out there.
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AX let me first start by say thanks again for the info. You are truely a good man because you answer each and everyone one on this forum and I'm sure it takes alot of time doing this. I truely believe that what you do is amazing and to let us come into your world and discuss sports handicapping is a plus. When honest people chat and help each other out, it's amazing what the final product can turn out to be. As for the sides thanks Bro I'm glad you don't mind because some nights I love some sides and don't post here on your post because I don't want to disrespect you in any way. I just want to help and help others here because I believe we can beat the books. With all this experience that is here I'm sure a good thing has to come out. God Bless you and everyone helping out in this forum.
 
grindstone

grindstone

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axp59 said:
Dude, please tell me you really don't save those stories. The tractor pull was pretty good. I should look that up and give it to Grindstone...This is why I bet unders...physics...tractor pulls..waitresses...What the F are you talking about. Are you on
drugs?????
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Here you go AX

Billy Buck Tractor % public # o/u 50 yards

60% over
40% under

:mj07:
 
axp59

axp59

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Grindstone, this is OUR thread pal. You've heard me say this so many times. I am the designated thread starter!...and I do some capping on the side. TOTALS ONLY CAPPING! :)
 
t20boss

t20boss

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axp59 said:
Dude, please tell me you really don't save those stories. The tractor pull was pretty good. I should look that up and give it to Grindstone...This is why I bet unders...physics...tractor pulls..waitresses...What the F are you talking about. Are you on drugs?????
Click to expand...

Grindstone would love it, man. Nah, didn't save those classic lines from ya, but everytime you go off on a tangent, it all comes back...
 
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