NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Hey AX any reason to stay away from Akron I was leaning that way.

That's was just for Gunny because he asked me to tell him to stay away...so I did. I have no lean on that...

 

[grindstone]

Here are the lastest # public %

DALL/ATL open 196.5 Current 196


29% over
71% under

 

[cubboy]

thanks ax

thanks ax

got it at 196 good luck to all .im off to the gambling boat to play some bj and watch some games ..

 

[sheets]

hey guys whats up

just got in some time to read my favorite thread , i took notice you doing good on ncaa ax , but thats to be expected with you bro .....i took a beating with memphis fg and than loaded up on ht and got killed lol
im thinking of teasing nova and the zags down 6 and loading up but not sure yet ...any thoughts guys??

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Enjoy the day off Joe...Not even some CBB?

No I only play NBA, it's my first season picking nearly every day picks so i totally concentrate on this! And to be honest: I don't know nothing about CBB! But maybe I'll watch out for some games in this thread

BOL :0corn
Joe

 

[grindstone]

196.5 but 196 is good IMHO

Thanks Brother loaded up on Miss St + 6 myself let's do this

:toast:

 

[granpa]

Here is the link to the NCAA Tourney Thursday spreadsheet I set up in Goggle docs, again this is just my use to help determine plays, normal handicapping goes in behind these I dont play it solely based on these, and sometimes my capping points to the opposite of it, just helps me look for value.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO5FQaf7haZKeU2N4p05-IQ&hl=en

BTW, the spreadsheet is interactive so if you change the ATS Line and O/U for your sportbook it will give you different differential #'s.

A negative on the ATS would indicate DOG, A negative on the O/U would indicate playing OVER the total.

Slicer, very interesting stuff on your sheet considering LSU, Mem, Purdue, UNC & UConn games have all hit the "pick side". BYU is the only loss so far. I'd love to get this for Sat's game if at all possible.

Thanks, Granpa

 

[Eagle123]

Locked on 196.5 DAL U, GL to us AX

 

[axp59]

im thinking of teasing nova and the zags down 6 and loading up but not sure yet ...any thoughts guys??

I just don't tease...I say if you have a play...play it strait up.

 

[Slicer]

Im working on the 7pm games now, I'll be here for about an hour, then off to dinner and the 7pm games, checking in again around the 9pm.

FINAL NBA UPDATE FOR TODAY:

Clev by 11.2 and 183.6 total
Atl by 2.2 and 193 total
Lakers by 17 and 230.2 total

 

[Slicer]

no problem granpa, like I said it still averages overall around 53% at the 500 play mark, haven't done a tabulation so far, but tourney wise so far It's been doing quite well in helping me select the strong plays I want to get involved in.

 

[Ools]

Slicer??

Slicer??

Slice --- whats the accuscore predictions to actual standings at this time?

have you tracked all results?

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

M'Land Over 132 - MLand deserved this one Cal has no heart - M' land will give Mem all they can handle IMO - tooK MSST and the Over 2-1 so far and have Dallas Under 196.:SIB

 

[Slicer]

Rest of the Card tonight according to Accuscore:

Currently today: 6-1 ATS Sides, 2-5 O/U's

Note, all games but 2 have gone over today *interesting*

Below is projected winners and margins (based on 10,000 simulations of the games, use them to compare vs. your spread line to determine plays:

Texas 8.2 and 124
Clemson 5.4 and 135.4
Villanova 14.8 and 127.4
Gonzaga 15.7 and 133.1
Duke 20.4 and 135.2
Oklahoma 18.4 and 128.8
UCLA 7.4 and 134.2
Illinois 7.7 and 126.1

Personally I like WKU, VCU, Oklahoma, Zaga, Nova not sure yet what Im gonna pull trigger on though.

 

[jebaum]

That thing about making shots is looking pretty key in the Miss st game 5/17 yeeks!

 

[Slicer]

BTW my results and records are based on the closing lines at bodog, so results could be different from someone that uses another book, which is why I made the spreadsheet available to anyone, that way you can plug in your numbers and get a feeling.

Often times the play's switch at the last minute (for record keeping purposes due to a .5 pt tick in the line) So to establish a base line I decided best to grade against the closing line, which is often different from the line we get early sometimes.

The main thing is to use the simulation numbers as predictors for selecting your plays and then apply your normal handicapping routine to the games. Sometimes I go against the system and win, sometimes I lose, it's just a tool.

 

[axp59]

M'Land Over 132 - MLand deserved this one Cal has no heart - M' land will give Mem all they can handle IMO - tooK MSST and the Over 2-1 so far and have Dallas Under 196.:SIB

You freakin action jackson junkie...Keep killin' em Bro!!!!

 

[PickNPop]

Here are the lastest # public %

DALL/ATL open 196.5 Current 196


29% over
71% under

:scared That worries me a bit.

 

[PickNPop]

As I suspected, this is Turc's POD too. Had to lock in the other 1/2 unit before the tailers took it down a point or two.

Down goes the dream of 196.5 lol :violin:

 

[axp59]

Gotta admiit that Turc is one of the hottest cappers right now and consistent. But that capper that's now in 2nd place is hot too. I'm not sure I know him/her.