if u have a 203.5 line for lakers and think its under.. i got a 205 and should pull the trigger now before the line moves down some... what do you think?
NBA TUE 032409 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
hawks 2nd quarter
hawks 2nd quarter
i throw this out there now, cuz i may not remember/have time tomorrow. for the hawks/spurs matchup on wednesday - look at the 2nd quarter matchup. i just read an article from espn's john hollinger about atlanta's tendency to outscore opponents in the second quarter. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090320
refers to our best buddy flip "from the hip - to cover the overs" murray and pachulia's ability to dominate as reserves. some of you may be on this already. i can't even bet quarter lines w/ my bookie; just throwing it out there.
the spurs also have had two very poor 2nd quarters against their last 4 opponents. 3/16 @ okc - the spurs got outscored 24-13. then got dominated by the rockets in the second quarter sunday. S.A seemed to dominate the first quarters of both games, but let the opponent back in it in the second quarter. i looked for the past month's second quarters and there were a few other poor 2nd quarters by S.A., but nothing overwhelming. they also have played well in some 2nd quarters - 3/14 against the rockets - won the quarter - 22-15. also the game before that they came back to shut down the lakers in the second quarter after performing miserably in the first.
anyway - for those of you that bet quarters; keep your eye on that wednesday matchup. it may have value.
hawks 2nd quarter
i throw this out there now, cuz i may not remember/have time tomorrow. for the hawks/spurs matchup on wednesday - look at the 2nd quarter matchup. i just read an article from espn's john hollinger about atlanta's tendency to outscore opponents in the second quarter. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090320
refers to our best buddy flip "from the hip - to cover the overs" murray and pachulia's ability to dominate as reserves. some of you may be on this already. i can't even bet quarter lines w/ my bookie; just throwing it out there.
the spurs also have had two very poor 2nd quarters against their last 4 opponents. 3/16 @ okc - the spurs got outscored 24-13. then got dominated by the rockets in the second quarter sunday. S.A seemed to dominate the first quarters of both games, but let the opponent back in it in the second quarter. i looked for the past month's second quarters and there were a few other poor 2nd quarters by S.A., but nothing overwhelming. they also have played well in some 2nd quarters - 3/14 against the rockets - won the quarter - 22-15. also the game before that they came back to shut down the lakers in the second quarter after performing miserably in the first.
anyway - for those of you that bet quarters; keep your eye on that wednesday matchup. it may have value.
If this is in reference to the Accuscore simulations...from what I have learned and observed that's not enough cushion to pull the trigger on the under. Ax always looks for 2 possesion cushion. The Accuscore numbers do change throughout the day. I just posted it to give the guys an idea of what the system has simulated. If Slicer doesn't update ( I'm sure he will) by noon, I can.
good lookin out baby doll. well its gettin late for me... so im off.. hopefully the lines get better by tom..
- Mar 18, 2009
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ax,i never want to be an i told you so with the talent we have here , but the atl game went as expected lights out and a loose up and down game . also tried to get your feel on the bos/clip game ..the celts with garnett are gonna get very defensive, but that got shot down. . tommorrows another day. after having my most productive weekend i followed it with maybe one of my best days ever. jmu,o.d.,st. mary, stanford,pacific,oregon st. push , then celtics under. (im just a 1 or 2 game a day player except i extend my bankroll for tournament or playoff time)my loss to keep me human was the portland game. what can you do philly showed up they deserved the win..thanx to ax and everyone for all contributions to this site all info used or not is greatly respected and appreciated
- Mar 18, 2009
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early leans , gs/sat under. and sides on utah and chicago. will study and take in comments from all of you. my observation is san antonio as well as the celtics now what it takes for them to win championships ..defense !!!these teams will start tightening and gearing up for the playoffs.once they get their seed locked then they will back off , but for now these teams are going to tighten up the d. san antonio has not allowed more than 87 points in their las 5 games. gs avgs 102 on the road and 3 out of their last 5 road games they have scored right at 90 points. ...this would be a signature win for houston if they could beat utah in utah. utah has won the last 3 meetings at home. utah has spent the whole month of march on the road popping in three times 3-0 to continue their home court dominance.poss. play n under. there is alot of value in chicago at home right now..i'm still not impressed with detroit they had that little streak after the coaching change , but haven't been able to sustain without rip and others coming in and out they are unable to maintain the high level of quality to win day in and day out.Rose hit that rookie wall , but is back and probably the leading candidate for rookie of the year. Bulls aren't a bad team they play hard every day and thats all you can ask for. they have won 8 of their last 10 home games many against quality teams(boston,orlando,new orleans,denver,as well as detroit) when the line comes out it should be in the 4 max 5 point range.....just my two cents
I think I will sit out tomorrow.
Not enough value on offer and there is a short card.
Wednesday looks pretty impressive with some potentially good games to cap or beat the spread.
Not enough value on offer and there is a short card.
Wednesday looks pretty impressive with some potentially good games to cap or beat the spread.
Stafox
Stafox
(641) LA LAKERS @ (642) OKLAHOMA CITY | 03/24/2009 8:05 PM
Play OVER LA LAKERS on the first half total in Road games after a non-conference game
The record is 12 Overs and 3 Unders this season (+8.70 units)
(645) GOLDEN STATE @ (646) SAN ANTONIO | 03/24/2009 8:35 PM
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the total in All games after 3 or more consecutive unders
The record is 10 Overs and 29 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.00 units)
The only two trends that show any value. Just throwing this out there as info.
Best of luck to you fellas.
:mj06:
Stafox
(641) LA LAKERS @ (642) OKLAHOMA CITY | 03/24/2009 8:05 PM
Play OVER LA LAKERS on the first half total in Road games after a non-conference game
The record is 12 Overs and 3 Unders this season (+8.70 units)
(645) GOLDEN STATE @ (646) SAN ANTONIO | 03/24/2009 8:35 PM
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the total in All games after 3 or more consecutive unders
The record is 10 Overs and 29 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.00 units)
The only two trends that show any value. Just throwing this out there as info.
Best of luck to you fellas.
:mj06:
Babydoll, I just want to make this correction...I'm actually on the low end of a 3 possession cushion (7). I'd prefer 9 obviously but somewhere in the 3 possession range will do. Anything higher really requires further study. When I cap a game that gives me a DD discrepancy from the book's number, it raises a big flag to dig deeper. Thanks for even remembering my cushion approach.
Hi Ax,
Lost badly yesterday....
Hope can win it back today
I also hurt badly by sun burn....sleep in the boat by accident...its really hurt!!
Lost badly yesterday....
Hope can win it back today
I also hurt badly by sun burn....sleep in the boat by accident...its really hurt!!
I actually had a lot to say on this one...
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=361553&page=3
#68
Monday was tough but it's what we do after a beat-down like this that defines us. :toast: on your evening.
I'm just not a comfortable talking about the C's because I know I cannot be objective. I have a 1/20U homer play on the C's for every game. I'll comment on C's games with a HOMER disclaimer but I'd rather not talk about it at all. They're one of those no value teams much like the Lakers and it's likely a better play to fade them which a god-fearing C's Homer would never do.
The under is not necessarily an automatic for me with KG in the lineup. This season with KG playing more than 1/2 the game (24+ mins) the O/U at home 15-11. On the road, it's a different story. O/U is 7-18 with KG in the lineup and playing more than half the game.
Keep it hot bro. looking forward to more from you.
I think this has to be something all of us must keep in the forefront when capping the latter part of the season. I know this is stating the obvious but some of the younger cappers may need this reinforced in their routines.
Hi Ax,
Lost badly yesterday....
Hope can win it back today
I also hurt badly by sun burn....sleep in the boat by accident...its really hurt!!
LOL eagle, you live the life my man. How long is this vacation...1 month?? we can't win them all and we certainly won't win it all back in one day. One play at a time eagle. BOL pal and stay out of that sun!!!
Ax,
One observation (for what it is worth) -- it seems you are being pursuaded or rather, you are now taking into account the opinions of other cappers more so than you did on the other site. this has caused some losses in recent days. while the back and forth is fun - i think you should just stick to your guns and go with those picks that only YOUR numbers validate. I have found that the forum can be helpful in discussing plays with people but it can also cause one to chose plays they would not normally chose or to discount plays they normally would have played. good luck
:soapbox:
One observation (for what it is worth) -- it seems you are being pursuaded or rather, you are now taking into account the opinions of other cappers more so than you did on the other site. this has caused some losses in recent days. while the back and forth is fun - i think you should just stick to your guns and go with those picks that only YOUR numbers validate. I have found that the forum can be helpful in discussing plays with people but it can also cause one to chose plays they would not normally chose or to discount plays they normally would have played. good luck
:soapbox:
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Thanks pal...I'm likely taking the day off and start capping the WED games early. It was a tough night for sure but nothing we can't recover from. Last week was a profitable week so I can't complain. It looks like you've followed my threads on the other side so you know that the NBA is really tough work for me.
Thank you for you comments. These losses are on me but I'll bounce back.
BOL
