NBA WED 032509 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

JCWhy

JCWhy

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Locked in the Bucks/Raptors and hoping for another number I like when I wake up. I think the best chance is the Heat/Pacers but I think we will see a 208 line and that isn't good enough for me :sleep:
 
burnetto57

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burnetto57

burnetto57

axp59 said:
LMAO, Yes, do know it very well and it's really simple sys play with Celtics/Knicks... it's not Acela triangle...it's the Acela angle. It's an unspoken deal between the the two teams. You aint going to make an east coast run by beating both. You beat the C's in Boston, you aint gonna be beat the Knicks at the garden. I've actually played with this just this year but I can remember which West coast team it was. The problem was there was a team in between like TOR. I think the sys play has to be NY/BOS and vise versa but no other teams in between. interesting theory. I tried to build on it actually by adding some superior teams into the mix like CLE but didn't work out too well when the Lakers ripped trough the East.
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Thanks - sorry for the 'off topic' - but he's been doing quite well - going to PM him tomorrow - to try to get a better understanding - thx.
 
LookKaPyPy

LookKaPyPy

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axp59 said:
I think the sys play has to be NY/BOS and vise versa but no other teams in between.
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I thought it was b2b games...

Hawks should be interesting game, I don't think they can get to be bigger than -4 fav as everyone would jump on Spurs, but at -4 (or better) I'm thinking Hawks. Or are the linemakers that arrogant to make Spurs +6-dog ?

Sixers back home finally...trouble covering...off to work...back in 8 :sadwave:
 
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barts185

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Some MIL/TOR Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Toronto


The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games


8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996


5 of 5 games in this series played at Toronto have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.


Is there a way to insert a table?


Don't see much recent data for MIL as a road dog of 1-5 points. Last time was 02/03.

For the year, O/U: 3-7-0 (-8.2) avg total: 196.8

team=Bucks and season=2008 and site=away and line >0 and line <=5

if you bring that down to a 1-3 range for away dog, o/u moves to 2-2-0 (-2.1) avg total: 195.1

team=Bucks and season=2008 and site=away and line >0 and line <=3


MIL as any sort of road dog with a total of 200 or higher

team=Bucks and season=2008 and site=away and line >0 and total >=200

4-6-0 (-5.2) avg total: 209.4


narrow that to road dog of 1 to 5 with a total of 200 or higher and only 2 games qualify, and they were in December, but did both go under much higher totals and would have been right at this total.

team=Bucks and season=2008 and site=away and line >0 and line <=5 and total >=200

0-2-0 (-16.8) avg total: 217.2
So, right at the 201 mark (okay, 200.4)

For TOR,
Home favorite of 1-3, all fairly recent (2 of the 3 within the past 10 days)

team=Raptors and season=2008 and site=home and line <0 and line >=-3

O/U: 0-3-0 (-8.0) avg total: 207.7

expand that to Home Favorite of 1-5

team=Raptors and season=2008 and site=home and line <0 and line >=-5

O/U: 4-6-0 (-5.7) avg total: 199.9

but, the 4 most recent (3 wiithin the past 10 days) have gone under, 2 by significant margins


5 games this season have had TOR favored by between 1 and 5 and been totaled at 200 or higher. All 5 went under.

0-5-0 (-19.4) avg total: 210.2
So, significantly under the 201.
 
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Mindframe913

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morning dudes. So auburn became the number 1 pick last second. so i put a unit on baylor.

Fade the number 1s
march 24- lakers -8 win ok thunder +8 .5 u L
auburn -3 loss baylor -3 1u W so for now 1-1


march 25
number 1 as of 815 am - Notre dame -2.5

but from here on out it will be one play a night what ever ends up being the number 1 before tip-off . So technically fading the number 1 is 1-0 with baylor winning outright.
 
Mindframe913

Mindframe913

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early money was on the bucks raptors over...from 6pm to 11pm 100 % were on the over...as of now 78 % on the under....:shrug:
 
axp59

axp59

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San Antonio at Atlanta
I think the buy-in number for this is around 186. There is a very realistic chance we see this.
 
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Macgruder23

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Mindframe913 said:
morning dudes. So auburn became the number 1 pick last second. so i put a unit on baylor.

Fade the number 1s
march 24- lakers -8 win ok thunder +8 .5 u L
auburn -3 loss baylor -3 1u W so for now 1-1


march 25
number 1 as of 815 am - Notre dame -2.5

but from here on out it will be one play a night what ever ends up being the number 1 before tip-off . So technically fading the number 1 is 1-0 with baylor winning outright.
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Trust me, the anti-public thing seems like a great tool..last week during NCAA you would have taken a bath..I promise you I have tried that angle its a 50/50 thing just like guessing..it runs hot and cold..A couple guys like Bobby Blue Chip and Wise and Wiser strictly play anti-consensus, check out their posts..hope this helps:)
 
axp59

axp59

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Here's another one that' may present some value with the correct number
Denver at New Orleans
This also has a realistic chance of coming out with my buy-in number of 200
 
4

40seven

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Two points for me.

First this fade the public and fade the Tout.

The public is often correct and some Touts do a fine job, Cap your games work them through and play only a few games a night and it will work.

Second today is a great card so lets be happy.

Last, i always laugh at the Over talk..at the old place it was like tabbo...

Remember it is always about making money....so you can pay taxes so your CPA makes a good livin'

Ax and Co Blessing!!
 
axp59

axp59

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40seven said:
Two points for me.

First this fade the public and fade the Tout.

The public is often correct and some Touts do a fine job, Cap your games work them through and play only a few games a night and it will work.

Second today is a great card so lets be happy.

Last, i always laugh at the Over talk..at the old place it was like tabbo...

Remember it is always about making money....so you can pay taxes so your CPA makes a good livin'

Ax and Co Blessing!!
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Thanks pal...I'm limiting my posts to the 3 unders I've identified. IMHO, given the right numbers, that's where the values are. I love the fact that there are 11 games today because of its effect on the economy of the board. Going to be watching the board most of the day. I am optimistic about today. BOL as always!
 
axp59

axp59

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40seven said:
I like Philly Under afor the same reasons i liked AH on Monday....at 201 and climbing.
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I know all the recent number are coming from their recent road trip but does it bother you that they're scoring +10 and allowing +10 over the league average...220 average totals the last 5 or somewhere around that.
 
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