NBA WED 032509 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[jim844]

can anyone recommend a place i can go to see where the $ is being put?
like which team is the public favorite etc
i play on bet365 and i dont' see %'s
i see cover's consensus numbers but i dunno if that's regarding where the moneys' goin or just cover's cappers

 

[vtfiyaboi]

louisiana's sports advocate:
hornets coach likely won't be able to fill out his starting lineup until shortly before 7 p.m. against the nugs. starting center tyson chandler; his primary backup, hilton armstrong; starting forward peja stojakovic; and reserve forward ryan bowen are all healing from injusies.
so basically, we wont know if these guys will be playing till sumtime before tipoff. hope this helps you guys in any way.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Hawks should be interesting game, I don't think they can get to be bigger than -4 fav as everyone would jump on Spurs, but at -4 (or better) I'm thinking Hawks. Or are the linemakers that arrogant to make Spurs +6-dog ?

How rude to give Spurs +6.5 (what did it open at?). Same thing like last game with Twolves, I had it capped at 9-14 win by Hawks and wasn't gonna give them 2 possessions worth of value...Hawks ended up covering barely.
Same thing tonight, I have Hawks at 4-8 win around 55%...45% is rest which counts in blowouts from either side, hot/cold players, yada yada. I don't wanna buy points vs Spurs...so now what...have to lay off again...is Timmy gonna be rested...I liked this one

 

[Mindframe913]

Two points for me.

First this fade the public and fade the Tout.

The public is often correct and some Touts do a fine job, Cap your games work them through and play only a few games a night and it will work.

Second today is a great card so lets be happy.

Last, i always laugh at the Over talk..at the old place it was like tabbo...

Remember it is always about making money....so you can pay taxes so your CPA makes a good livin'

Ax and Co Blessing!!

love what your saying here...have to take this number 1 experiment with a grain of salt...i have found that when public is on a great team vs a crap team..public wins...ive found when number 1 pick is an ok team vs an ok team that def can end up winning outright.....it never fails to go with the ok team and the points ( when they are the number 1 most wagered game that day) great point you made though.

 

[Ools]

Ax - was emailing with Turc - trying to talk him into checking out this site -- laying low for now -- but he sends his regards.

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore 11:55am EST

Mavs 13 and 226.4
Sixers 7.3 and 197.5
Hawks 3.1 and 176.7
Cavs 12.7 and 186.5
Pacers 2.4 and 207.6
Bobcats 3.1 and 189.5
Raptors 6.5 and 197.1
Knicks 6.1 and 219.5
Hornets 5.7 and 191.1 (with tyson,peja as playing)
Magic 3.8 and 188
Suns 1.1 and 233.5

 

[JBrilman]

40, there's also a strong trend for team's first game back at home after at least a 5 game road trip. Much like PHI@POR MON night. I think it's in pg2 or pg3 of MON's thread.

GL

Ax,

can you please re post for everyone, I just went back and couldn't find it.

 

[JBrilman]

Should have went with my my first pick on yesterdays thread...UTH under.

 

[omega]

hi ax
i am new in this site.would like to say u and your
fellow cappers are very insightful with ur threads.
I have learnt alot about capping from u guys.

would likes to know ur thoughts on the under of
min/phi and cha/was.

Often heard u talks about ur dogs.Wondering what
kinds of dogs u have

 

[PickNPop]

Morning, A-TEAM.

MIL/TOR is now @ 202 for Pinny...

 

[jim844]

this raising of the line reminds me of the atl/min game we all had the under on at 196.5 and the line kept dropping prompting people to take the under thinking vegas was lowering the line to get people away from the under when the game went over greatly
did that make sense?

 

[toastonastick]

this raising of the line reminds me of the atl/min game we all had the under on at 196.5 and the line kept dropping prompting people to take the under thinking vegas was lowering the line to get people away from the under when the game went over greatly
did that make sense?

I think that was the public taking the line down that night, then 5 minutes before tip someone sharp put in the buy call on the over, If I remember right.

Good luck today!

 

[jlippens]

Off my list @196 but a DEN side is viable +5.

Agreed on the side here.

 

[canuckfan77]

Agreed on the side here.

It looks like it's down to 4.5 now. I like the Celtics getting 3.5 even better IMHO.

 

[axp59]

Ax - was emailing with Turc - trying to talk him into checking out this site -- laying low for now -- but he sends his regards.

How's business? Man, such a shame...I guess it's just a difference in business philosophies...please send him my very best wishes...I hold no ill will...although I don't agree with his current chosen profession

 

[JBrilman]

http://www.contracostatimes.com/warriors/ci_11989563

:shrug:

SO does this mean he will or will not play tonight? If he doesn't and the are listing Crawford as not playing I see the 225 number as having potential.

 

[axp59]

Ax,

can you please re post for everyone, I just went back and couldn't find it.

This is the whole thing...the last piece is really what you want...

PHI this season on a true on the road b2b where both games are away from home

0-4 SU losing by an average of 9 points


lost by 10 against ORL 11/06
lost by 2 SAS 1/3
lost by 15 OKC 3/8
lost by 10 PHO 3/18

Portland this season hosting a team on the tail end of a true road b2b

10-2 SU winning by an average of 9 points

but don't be fooled by this...take a close look

MIN won by 4 11/08
CHI won by 42 11/19
SAC won by 1 11/24
NOH won by 15 11/28
ORL lost by -1 12/09
TOR won by 13 12/27
CHA won by 14 1/28
OKC won by 14 2/11
MEM won by 4 2/18
IND won by 2 3/4
MIN won by 2 3/7
DAL lost by -4 3/11

that 42 point wins masks the reality and skews this average win number. given today's number of -7, they would only be 5-7 ATS in these SU wins.

All I'm saying is be careful before you unload on this game. This season in the NBA, teams coming off a long road trip of at least 5 games have been caught with their pants down on their first home game back. Sure SU is 20-10 but they are only winning by an average of 3 points. ATS is 16-13-1 with an average line of -3 and failing to cover this small number by simply winning by 3 (push).

Just be careful since I'm seeing a lot of excitement for POR here. First game back is a big letdown spot.

 

[axp59]

hi ax

would likes to know ur thoughts on the under of
min/phi and cha/was.

Often heard u talks about ur dogs.Wondering what
kinds of dogs u have

Thank you

I have NO PLAY on the unders for either game. I am partial to the MIN side. Scroll up and you'll see why.

My five dogs are all wieners...hot dogs if you will. Those are disparaging names for them and they are easily insulted. They are Dachshunds that rule my entire home. Damn place is crawling with them. I'm on the couch in my office now and there's 3 of them on here with me. The other two are causing trouble somewhere I'm sure.

BOL

 

[JBrilman]

Also does anyone find it odd that DEN/PHO 228.5 have not had a total this high in there last 10 games. and have gone over that same number only 2 times in those 10 games and one of them was OT.

Another game worth a look IMO

 

[axp59]

:shrug: SO does this mean he wil.....[B][I]NO LINKS PLEASE...HOUSE RULES[/I][/B]