NCAA footbal sides project 2021

[RBD]

My posts on Ov/Un's usually contain a lot of info - records, stats, picks, reasons, etc, and they run long.
I don't want to add to it with more of the same on sides, so I'm going to post sides in this thread and not clutter up my main thread.

My largest wagers are in boxing, but close to it are my NCAA Unders. The buys in this sides project will be nowhere near my wager size on totals, another reason for separating them from my Ov/Un plays. I have years of data to back up my totals but zero data on sides as I usually don't 'cap/play them for anything other than the occasional TV/action fun stuff.

As usual, I'll 'cap 4-5 systems, and post some here, will add or subtract when/if they have value.

Play A is already off to a good start as a fade at 0-2; Dogs 0-2.
Play B is 0-1; Dogs 0-1

I'll update with this week's spots in A & B later. For now, here are the buys I made today, all in Play C, 0-0 thus far in 2021. This is a play I did well with in basketball. I have NO idea if it will work in football, but there's only one way to find out - jump in and get my feet wet.
Not happy it kicked out all Favs, but, small $ only, so what the hell - here I go.

UPDATE 9/1:

Play A (0-2, Dogs 0-2) has . . .
Thursday: Tenn
Friday: Old Dom, (Correction: play is Old Dom, not N'west)
Saturday: LA Tech, Rice, U Mass, Hou, N Ill, S Miss, C Mich, Ohio, Akron

Play B (0-1, Dogs 0-1) has . . .
Thursday: Ohio St
Friday: N'West
Saturday: Kentucky, Rice, Texas, N Dame

Play C has . . .
C1: Hou, Ohio, S Miss
C2: Army, Penn St, Navy, Ohio, Hou, Tex San Ant

I do not expect any of these three plays (A, B, C) to have a winning record so I'm fading the spots and taking the other side when I buy any of them. I think C has the best chance to be a profitable fade so I bought all of them this week, all for small $, just a little fun, me vs the #'s.

Last week, A & B had a match on Uconn and they lost, this week they match on N'West and Rice. CORRECTION: Rice only, not N'West.
I'd like to fade the N'West spot but Mich St has gone from +7 to +3, and I will not buy a bad line on a side after the value is gone. With totals, yes, but sides, no.

I did add one buy to those I already bought on Monday, the S 'Bama spot.

Buys:
Syr -1
Geo St -2
Wisc - 5'
Marsh -2
Tex Tech -1
Ill -5'
Cal -3
S 'Bama -1

 

[RBD]

Recap: 4-4, -$40 (based on a $100 unit)

It was a simple plan for the week, as posted: Fade all the C spots.
They went 3-4, my record should be 4-3, with a profit.
So, why is it 4-4 and minus juice?
Because of Cal -3.
I have NO idea where this buy came from. Saturday morning I reviewed my bets and saw Cal -3. WTF??!!
I checked my log book - no play ON Cal or a fade AGAINST Nevada, in the C spot or any of the plays I track but don't post.
I was hoping I bought in error but didn't post it, checked my post here, and . . . Cal -3 is NOT posted as a qualifying spot but IS posted as a buy. And I don't know why.

Too many mistakes in week one, have to clean it up this week.

On the good news side, from last week's post:
"I do not expect any of these three plays (A, B, C) to have a winning record so I'm fading the spots and taking the other side when I buy any of them."

The three spots combined for a 7-14 week, meaning the call for fades was dead-on at 14-7, 67%!
Note - the C Mich spot was posted, but the line change made it come off the board as it no longer qualified. They lost, which means it was another W for the fade on these spots, but I am not counting it as a W in the record - these records HAVE to be accurate because I use them to decide which games to buy.

Also good news - matches. When I had a match - the same play in two different systems - they went 0-3 for a 3-0 fade.

All good stuff to use moving forward.

Season records:
Play A: 2-10, Favs 0-4, Dogs 2-6
Play B: 2-4, Favs 2-3, Dogs 0-1
Play C1: 0-3, Favs 0-3, Dogs 0-0
Play C2: 3-3, Favs 1-2, Dogs 2-1

That's a combined 7-20 for a 74% fade.

If these numbers hold for a couple of weeks before leveling out I can make some nice bank.
I'm upping my base unit a little on these plays, since they're working well.

I'll update this post with qualifying spots after I finish 'capping.

 

[RBD]

This week's fade spots to choose from:

A has Mid Tenn St, U Mass, UAB

B has Tex A&M, G South, S' Bama, SD St

C1 has E Car, Miss St, SD St

C2 has E Car, G South, Tex St, SD St, Vandy

Have matches on E Car and SD St

Records for all of these spots are in the post above this.

Buys:
V Tech -20
Geo -23'
Col +17
Fla Atl -7
B Green +14
NC St -1
S Car -2
Az -2
Fla Int -1'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 6-3
Upping the $ size of my base unit to jump on these before they level out was the right move

Posted spots went 7-8, a small win, but I did a good job at picking which ones to buy and got a 6-3 day.

My estimate that these would be good spots to fade is still on the mark. Year to date they're a combined 14-28, a 67% fade rate with more than 40 plays.

The only spot with a winning record is C2 at 6-5.
Best fade thus far is A at 3-12.

Updated charts:

A: 3-12, Favs 0-4, Dogs 3-8
B: 3-7, F 2-5, D 1-2
C1: 2-4, F 0-3, D 2-1
C2: 6-5, F 1-2, D 5-3

My record: 10-7

Back midweek with this week's spots, hoping for some buys in A, but also looking forward to plays in C2 because I think it likely to join the other spots and also have a losing record. It barely pulls a winning record after Fla Int blew a chance at a late FG in regulation and then had a turnover in OT for a loss.

 

[RBD]

Correction: I think I made an error on my formula for week one.
I can't recreate the data used at that time, I'm not sure if I made an error or what the error is if I did, so I'm going to eliminate week one records for all plays from my charts and start with week two.
Handicapping sides in college is new for me, and I'm fumbling my way along trying to find what works.
I hate to do this, but if I can't depend on the accuracy of the data then my #'s are useless to me, so I'm eliminating week one.

My record on buys stays the same of course, at 10-7.

Updated charts:
A: 1-2, Dogs 1-2
B: 1-3, Favs 0-2, Dogs 1-1
C1: 2-1
C2: 3-2

This weeks spots . . .

Fri: C2 has Louisville

Sat:

A has Buff, E Mich (CORRECTION: U Mass NOT E Mich)

B has Mich St, Buff, Fla (CORRECTION: 'Bama NOT Fla), Iowa, W Forest, N'West, Ok St

C1 has Minn, Memphis

C2 has V Tech, Mich St, Ok St, BYU

I still see these as Fade plays for small $/action/TV fun (at least until I get more data.)

I might also add some totals here, plays that I have active in my various Ov/Un systems but don't want to make investments in; yet.

One buy for tonight.

Update: Added a buy.

Buys:
UCF -7
N'Western/Duke Ov 49'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1, missed with Central Florida, but still playing with house money today.
Record: 10-8

Buys:
N'Western/Duke Ov 49'
Coastal Carolina -14

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 11-10

It was a good 1-2.
What is a good 1-2?
When you lose your Fri night play and Saturday morning play and are staring at 0-3 if you don't win your afternoon game!

I got the W with a fade on an OP Un spot (N'West/Duke) from my post on totals They were 1-3 coming into the day with 2 games on the schedule. I used the the first one but either would have worked as they both won, that play is 1-5 now (5-1 as a fade.) There are 3 more spots to fade this weekend, Ov in Mia-Oh/Army, Un in La Laff/G South and Un in Ind/W Kentucky. They're too new (not enough data acquired) to use as investment buys in the other thread but I might use them here for small $ plays.

I bought two dogs tonight that have a good chance to win SU.
My stats show MTS with a 67% chance to cover tonight, and I took Wake with the FG & a hook.

Buys:
MTS +3
W Forest +3'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0-1
Banked a W with W Forest, pushed with Mid Tenn St.
Record: 12-10

Buys:
UCLA -4
UCLA/Stan Ov 60
La Laff/Geo South Ov 54
Charleston/E Car Ov 59

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2-1
Got a win with UCLA, lost the UCLA Ov by 1 pt, pushed with E Car Ov and lost with G South Ov.
I was in good shape with all three Overs going into the 4th quarter, but couldn't get them home.
Record: 13-12

This week I'm going to fade my ply with the lowest W %. The usually reliable CP Unders are waaaay under-performing at are at 3-9. First up is the Thursday night game.

Buys:
Virg/Maryland Ov 62

 

[redsfann]

Recap: 1-2-1
Got a win with UCLA, lost the UCLA Ov by 1 pt, pushed with E Car Ov and lost with G South Ov.
I was in good shape with all three Overs going into the 4th quarter, but couldn't get them home.
Record: 13-12

This week I'm going to fade my ply with the lowest W %. The usually reliable CP Unders are waaaay under-performing at are at 3-9. First up is the Thursday night game.

Buys:
Virg/Maryland Ov 62

Iowa plays Maryland Friday night.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBD]

I got my M's mixed up, meant Miami not Maryland.
Thanks for picking me up on it and good luck to you with your play this weekend.

(My favorite Hemingway quote is the cynical, "Isn't it pretty to think so." Often quoted and copied in TV/movie scripts without crediting the source.)

 

[redsfann]

Any fan of Hemingway is OK In my book :toast:

Enjoy your write ups. Good luck with your plays


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Well, that sucked. I really thought I had that game nailed, needed Ov 62, got 58, barely escaping a 1 pt loss when Miami missed a last second FG.

BOTH teams deserved to lose. I entered the 4th quarter in great shape, only needed 14 pts, 1 TD each, after they just put up 25 pts in the third quarter, but Virg was up by 2 scores and stopped playing aggressively on offense. Then Miami caught up, got within 2 pts. On their last drive of the game they advanced the ball easily vs a tired Cav defense, then, when they got inside the 20 yd line they stopped doing what got them there and ran 2 weak run plays up the middle then took a knee on third down to settle for a FG, which their kicker boinked off the left upright.

A lot of people say playing for the FG is the right move in that spot, avoiding a possible fumble/turnover.
WRONG!
Yes, they might fumble; that is ONE bad outcome.
On a FG there are THREE possible bad outcomes:
1 - a bad snap that the placeholder fumbles or can't put in position for the kicker
2 - a blocked kick
3 - what happened last night - they miss the FG

(And on the final drive, Virginia's Head Coach Moron Mendelhall called a late timeout, losing 20 valuable seconds off the clock before he signaled the refs. I will never understand how some of these HC's can be paid hundreds of thousands of dollars yet can't comprehend simple clock management.)

Anyway . . .

Record: 13-13

My action/fun plays are getting action, but not as much fun as I'd like. Hence (hence?) small $.

Buys:
Maryland +3 (I got them with the hook but +3 is the common # now.)
Hou Un 54'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2

Well, that was certainly ugly.
A half-point loss on the Houston total, thanks to three interceptions including a pick 6.
And the Maryland/Iowa game was over in the second quarter thanks to SEVEN Maryland turnovers, including five interceptions from Tagovailoa.

Record:13-15

Got some work to do today, and I'll be making buys throughout the day including - if I get the right numbers - some second half adjustments.

UPDATE: Added a buy.

Buys:
Toledo/U Mass Ov 56
Wisc -1'

 

[RBD]

Second half adjustment plays.

I have a decent pace in the Toledo game, but I'll fall short on my Over if U Mass doesn't score, and it doesn't look like U Mass can score.
I'm going to use the, "Kill 'em in the first half, kill 'em in the second half" theory and take Toledo in the second half.
I should be okay there as long as U Mass doesn't try a new quarterback, and probably even if they do.

Wisconsin's offense looks almost as bad as Massachusetts, and their special teams are even worse. I'm not looking good there but I don't see a viable buy-off so I'll stick with what I already have.


Buys:
Toledo/U Mass Ov 56
Wisc -1'
Toledo second half -7'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-3
Even missed my halftime adjustment, by half of a point.

On an 0-6 run.
Let the flogging continue...
Buys:
Nev/Boise St Ov 58'
E Car +3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
After an 0-3 start on Saturday I closed with two winners.
Record: 15-18

I'm tracking five different plays for sides, and every one of them is either hovering around .500 or doesn't have enough data to make the spot usable. I'll keep tracking but for now I'm going to use the totals that I like but don't want to make investment size buys on.

Tonight, I have a spot that's just 9-9 (as detailed in my other post) but on a 6-0 run.
It has a play on the Un in both games. I was going to buy both, but I also have another play with a decent W% that says take the CC/Ark St game Un, so since I have two leans on that game I'll use that one for my lone buy. The common # right now is 73' with one or two 73 & 74 out there. I'll wait a little before buying it to see if 74 becomes more readily available. If not, grab a 73'. I'll post my # after I buy it.

UPDATE - wait to buy was the right call, 74/74' available now; still waiting

Update #2: Five minutes to kickoff and there are a few 75 out there, including one of my outs.
I'll use 74' here since it's the common #.


Buys:
CC/Ak St Un 74'
Penn St/Iowa Un 41

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0

Nice hit on Un 74' in CC game, landing on 72.
Shouldn't have been that close after just 24 pts in the first half. Up by more than 3 TD's in the fourth quarter, Coastal was in closeout mode, using the entire play clock before snapping the ball and running it up the middle. Problem is, Ark St can't tackle and gave up TD runs of 64 and then 67. Had to sweat it out a little over the final 7 minutes, but hey - that's what TV action/fun bets are for.

Good move staying off the Houston game Un as they were one play away from taking a knee when Tulane gave up a 35 yd run with 1:03 left in the game to push it Over.

Record: 16-18

Buys:
Penn St/Iowa Un 41
S Car/Tenn Un 57
Maryland/Ohio St Un 71

 

[RBD]

Adding a buy.

Buys:
W Virg/Baylor Un 45
Penn St/Iowa Un 41
S Car/Tenn Un 57
Maryland/Ohio St Un 71

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-4
Ugliest day of the season. Unders, my strongest plays, go 8-4 and I pull an 0-4.
Doing a lousy job at picking spots.
Record: 16-22

Buys:
Geo South team total Ov 23