NCAA footbal sides project 2021

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1

"Do your handicapping work and what do you get - another losing bet and deeper in debt."
I thought of that old song as I watched Geo Southern fail to get a single first down until almost halftime.

Record: 16-23
Picking and choosing is not working, so I have two options: take a week off or stop choosing and just play all the spots with a winning record.
If I was doing this poorly with my standard college bets I'd probably take a week off, but since this is a side project for small $ there's no real damage to my bankroll. Of course, like everyone, I like to win, but I also really enjoy the chess match/battle with the books, the math of it, can I figure out how to traverse my way through a season and finish with a + balance?
So, this weekend I'm going to ride the highest W %'s and fade the worst.

Starting with tonight.

OP spots are 6-12; Ov 1-2, Un 5-10.
I've been getting 3-4 of these each week, but unless late line changes give me any additional spots I only have one this week, Marsh/N Tex Un. At 5-10, 67% with 15 plays tracked, I'm fading it.

The line opened at 69. This morning, the board is split between 66' and 66.
I'll wait to buy, see if it drops any further, but monitor it carefully in case there's a buy back on the Over by anyone who bought the opening # Under and is looking for a middle, or late buys by the Over-loving public, send it higher. I'll post the # I get after I buy in.

NP Over spots are hitting at 40% (8-12), this translates to a 60% fade. There's a play tonight, Clem/Syr Ov.
I'd normally be happy to get in on a 60% spot but Clemson can't possibly keep playing so poorly on offense, sooner or later they're going to bust open, right? They're 1-2 in this spot, but I can't fade it, I can't see how they and Syracuse don't put up 20+ each to reach 44 pts in this match-up.
I'm tempted to actually ride the Over, despite the 8-12 record overall, and the Tiger's 1-2.

CP Unders are usually reliable and after a 9-9 start are on an 8-3 run. I have 5 spots this week:
Tulsa, Cin, W Kent, BC & UTEP. Back with buys asap.

UPDATE: Grabbed the 66.

Buys:
Marsh/N Tex Ov 66
Aub/Ark Un 54

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with Ov in the Marshall game.
Needed 66, had 49 points at halftime, got tight after a 0-0 third quarter, but got enough scoring in the 4th quarter to push it Over.

Good move laying off that Clemson Ov I was tempted to take. That team is awful, the QB has no accuracy, and when he gets lucky and delivers a ball on target is receivers can't catch it.

Record: 17-23

Buys:
Aub/Ark Un 54
Tulsa/S Fla Un 55'
Idaho/E Wash Un 80

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-3
A 1-3 week puts me at 17-26, nine games below .500.
I said I was going to stop picking and choosing and ride my highest % plays.
The highest % I had was CP Un; they went 3-2. They go 3-2 and I go 0-3 for the day.
Why? Because after I lost the morning game with Tulsa in the CP Un spot I shut it down for the day, and missed out on late winners. In other words, I picked and chose again. And . . . lost again.
So this week, I'm going to play all CP Un spots unless either team has a losing record for this play.

And I'm playing all spots in an 13-5 play I have charted.

And I'm going to use FCS plays. I lost the only one I used last week, Idaho Under.
I chose it from amongst several in the same situational spot because I got seduced by the high #, 80.
E Wash scored 71 by themselves, and the play lost by 22.
But here's the good news - I charted FCS spots using the same formula for FBS that has worked so well.
And though I lost the E Wash spot, it was one of only three losers. And it had ten winners.
One of the other losses was also a total of 80 (the Houston Baptist game) so if I eliminate all plays at a total of 80 or higher it was 10-1. I haven't been charting FCS this season, but I thought I'd look at it this past weekend. And I like the results.

I went back and checked my results for FCS Unders here at MJ's last year, and here's what I found:
Unders went 13-9, 59% (my posted FCS buys went 7-2 so I was doing a better job of picking and choosing last year.)
The 13-9 looks underwhelming when compared to 23-4 on FBS Unders, but in reality 59% is solid, and worth playing anytime.
So, I'm going use those this week, too.

It's going to be a crazy week, I'm going to play an insane number of games, but, reminder - this is all for small money, not like the investment plays in my other thread.
I'll either get back in black or close to it, or dig my hole even deeper.
Either way, I'm gonna have some fun. (I think.)

CP Unders are 20-14, 58%. There are five spots this week: U Mass, LSU, E Car, Temple, W Kent.
I'm eliminating Hou, S Fla, and W Kent because they have all lost in this situational spot this year.

Back with more buys later this week.

Update, Tue 10/18: Added a buy.
OK/Kan Under is in the, "And I'm playing all spots in an 13-5 play I have charted" spot I mentioned above. If I use it after this week I'll tag it with a mnemonic for reference purposes. It's 22-16 overall (decent at 57%) but when it's a RD team off a HM game last week it's 13-5. Oklahoma fits.

Cincy is in the same spot but I'm wavering on that one. The Bearcats are one of my fav teams to use in Unders because Fickell, with a lead late in the game, usually plays a ball control/run out the clock type of offense. But after watching last week's game he has clearly been converted to the "You have to run up the score to impress the committee" type of HC. Since the line has already dropped 2 pts on that game I'll likely lay off at the current number.

Buys:
U Mass/Fla St Un 60'
LSU/Miss Un 76
Ok/Kan Un 67'

 

[RBD]

Did a Saturday morning update in my other thread, no additional buys yet. Bought three more here though.

FCS has Harv/Princeton Over ("He's wearing my Harvard tie. Oh sure, like he went to Harvard!") and Unders in N Iowa/S Dak St, Missouri St/N Dak St, and Alcorn St/Texas South.
I bought all three Unders.

Update #1: Added 2 FCS buys.

Buys:
U Mass/Fla St Un 60'
LSU/Miss Un 76
Ok/Kan Un 67'
N Iowa/S Dak St Un 50
Missouri St/N Dak St Un 49'
Alcorn St/Texas South Un 59'
Bryant/Wagner Un 54
Davidson/Butler Un 59

 

[RBD]

Here are the rest of the FCS games that qualify, up to the 11:00 a.m. starts:
Ov in N Car Cent/Morgan St
Un in Youngstown St/Indiana St, Lehigh/Fordham, San Diego/ Presby

Not playing the Overs, but sticking to my commitment to play all Unders EXCEPT games with a total of 80 or more, which were 0-2 last week, including the Presby game.

Update: Here are the rest of the FCS plays qualify today:
Ov in Bethune Cook/Jackson St, Tennessee St/Eastern Ill, Kennesaw State/Campbell, Nicholls/ Houston Baptist

Un in North Carolina AT& T/Hampton, SE Missouri St/Tenn Martin, Charleston South/N 'Bama

I bought all of the rest of the Unders.

Craziest day of my entire betting life.
If the percentages from last week don't hold I'll be digging my way to China.

Buys:
U Mass/Fla St Un 60'
LSU/Miss Un 76
Ok/Kan Un 67'
N Iowa/S Dak St Un 50
Missouri St/N Dak St Un 49'
Alcorn St/Texas South Un 59'
Bryant/Wagner Un 54
Davidson/Butler Un 59
Youngstown St/Indiana St Un 54'
Lehigh/Fordham Un 51'
North Carolina AT& T/Hampton Un 61'
SE Missouri St/Tenn Martin In 63
Charleston South/N 'Bama Un 58'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 8-7
Well, that turned out to be a lot of work for little gain, but . . . a lot of fun.
Hit 2 of 3 FBS, but got a split of 5-5 on FCS.
Record: 25-33

Scenario: The books offer Ov or Un for a game with a total of 58 pts. Your crystal ball shows you there will be only 17 pts at the end of the third quarter. What will you bet, Ov or Un?
You'd go all in on the Under, right?
Wrong move. Read on . . .
The Charleston South Un was a particularly bad beat.
It looked like it was going to give me a W for a decent 9-6 FCS day.
Had Un 58'. Had just 14 pts at halftime.
Looking good, eh?
Just 3 pts in the third quarter for 17 pts total.
I could give up FORTY-ONE pts in the fourth quarter and STILL win. Then . . . Kids Ball happened.
They scored 28 pts in barely three minutes, thanks to turnovers on three straight possessions.
Just 17 pts in three quarters, then 50 pts in the fourth quarter.
Kids Ball - ya can never trust 'em!

I'm going to have some fun again this week. I got out of last week with no damage, and, what the hell, it's crazy to bet so many spots but it was fun, and I have some good stuff to work with this week(and remember - this is for small $ size bets.)

Last week I used Unders, but it's just as profitable to fade Overs.

Unders are: CP 24-15 (61%), NP 18-10 (64%), F CS 15-9 (62%)

Overs are: CP 16-25 (a 61% fade), NP 11-17 (61% fade), FCS 2-7 (77% fade)

I won't buy every spot active this week.
For example, CP has Navy/Tulsa Un, a solid play overall at 61%, BUT, these teams are a combined 0-3 in this spot this season, so I won't buy it.
I'll list all active plays in my main thread in case anyone is interested.

One buy for now.
With Navy at 0-1 in CP Un and Tulsa at 0-2, I'll fade it and hope either busts through with enough scoring to make it an Ov again.

Buys:
Navy/Tulsa Ov 47

 

[BuddyWright]

RBD I used to post an abreveated interview
with roxy borough the guy at the time that owned Las Vegas sport consultants the dudes that sold the line to most of the books in vegas. If there is anyone that needs to read this I believe it you bro.

The whole article is posted online under the title= THE MAN WHO SETS THE ODDS. AN INTERVIEW WITH ROXY ROXBOROUGH

Type that in and pay attention to what he says about gamblers and systems.

GoodLuck on your action

 

[RBD]

Buddy,
Thanks for the tip, I'll take a look (I'm an avid reader, devour 1-2 books per week.)

I used to run the most popular sports book in Vegas.
Of course I know LVSC. And I know Roxy, and Karol.
I made odds for years (not just copied LVSC lines like most books, we made our own NFL #'s, were the first to put them up Sunday afternoon.)

Not sure why I "if anyone" needs to read the article. As I've pointed out, this post is for fun, small $. My other thread is for investments (7-4 this season, 63%.)
Overall, I have a + $ balance here, all sports. Individually, I have a +$ balance in NFL, FBS, FCS, MLB, NCAA, and boxing, every sport except NBA, so I'm doing okay, and I plan on beating the NBA this year (though as the saying goes, "The best laid plans of mice and men . . .")

While at my sports book, I had a saying: "Blessed are the 'System Guys' for they know how to beat us."
It was sarcasm of course, we made a lot of $ off of the System Guys. But that's not to say there are not systems that work, such as last year, my New Play Under system went 23-4, posted here. That type of # is sure to go down, but it's still hitting at 64% this season, and that's good enough for me.

Yes, it is ridiculous and crazy to play as many games as I play in this thread, which is why I've pointed it out repeatedly.
I've offered the following advice many times:
As a book, my disadvantage is that I HAVE to put up a line on every game. Your advantage as a player is that you DON'T have to bet every game, you can be selective. And the more games you bet, the more you reduce my disadvantage. And increase yours.

I keep an honest record of my plays so people can decide for themselves if they want to ride a play or not.
I even break it down to type of play - side, total, Fav, Dog, Ov, Un - so people who might be considering a play can make an even more informed decision.
Generally, I'm a very conservative bettor, especially when making investment-size wagers (it's week nine of the college football season and I've only recommended 11 bets) but I have the available disposable income (and very little of it is being disposed of with the small $ amounts used here) to divulge in tiny excesses like this for a little fun once in a while.
So, I do.

 

[BuddyWright]

My office was across the street from PALACE STATION during the late 80s and early 90s.Back then all the locals went to the Palace...odd our paths didnt cross???

 

[RBD]

I didn't hang out in casinos on my off hours, except for when I had guests in town and all they wanted to do was see the latest new joint on the strip.



Today's buys - none yet. Busy with errands and stuff.
And, Bookmaker decided to no longer put up FCS totals any more? They said they're going to put them up, but they haven't, looks like I lost an out for comparison shopping; pussies.

I'm looking over stuff now, but like I said busy with other stuff and not feeling it today.

 

[RBD]

Fading FCS Overs would have hurt last week, going in at 2-7 they went 9-3.
But . . . as usual, Unders are my best 'caps and playing FCS Unders would have more than made up for the losses on fading the Overs as Unders went 12-3.
I don't expect Overs to perform as well this week, but playing Unders seems the better strategy, the more steady W %. I added another out for FCS totals to make up for Bookmaker dropping them.

Sitting at 25-33 I have some work to do. Got a buy on one of tonight's game and an early buy for a Saturday game, a fade of a CP Ov spot (59%)
Again, reminder, this is small $ for fun stuff.

Buys:
E Mich/Tol Un 54
Ok St/W Virg Un 49'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Close one. Had E Mich/Tol Un 54, and only 52 scored at halftime.
Just needed to hold them to a safety of fewer in the second half, but . . . no.
NEXT!

Record: 25-34

Added another source for FCS totals, hoping they can cut into the deficit.
Del St/Morgan St qualifies as an Over for tonight's game (they're 11-10) but I'm laying off, looking at hitting all the Unders (27-12) this week.
For now, adding a couple of FBS Unders from my New Play category (20-11), and a fade of a 5-11 spot.

Again, reminder, this is small $ for fun stuff.

Buys:
Utah/Stanford Un 54
Ok St/W Virg Un 49'
Mich St/Purdue Un 54
Mid Tenn St/ W Kentucky Ov 67'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 25-35
Short on time, still 'capping and trying to get bets in.
I'm buying all FCS Unders that qualify today, small $/action/fun, stats/record for these are in my other thread.
I'll update with added buys throughout the day.

Not buying them, but for record-keeping purposes and transparency here are the games that qualify as FCS Overs today:
Kennesaw St/Robert Morris, Drake/Marist, Sacred Heart/St. Francis, Nichols/McNeese State, N Hamp/Albany, Harv/Columbia, Montana/N Colorado, E Kentucky/Stephen Austin, Portland St/Weber State, Grambling/Ark Pine, East Ill/Austin Peay, Campbell/James Madison, Houston Bap/N'western State

Two games qualify as FCS Unders that I'm not buying, Presby/Valpo, Citadel/Samford

Update: Added buys for the 10:00 games.
Update: Added the rest of the FCS buys.
Corrected total on the Howard game and the Fordham game.
Fini.


Buys:
Ok St/W Virg Un 49'
Mich St/Purdue Un 54
Mid Tenn St/ W Kentucky Ov 67'
Alcorn St/Bethune Cook Un 58
Yale/Brown Un 68
Missouri St/S Ill Un 63
Fordham/Georgetown Un 61
Gardner-Webb/Hampton Un 65'
N 'Bama/Monmouth Un 61'
Howard/ S Car St Un 58
Montana State/ E Wash Un 68'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 5-5-1
No gain, a little pain, got screwed on the push, lost with under a minute to go.
Still, a lot of action, a lot of fun, minuscule damage.
Record: 30-40

Using FCS Unders was the wrong move (easy in hindsight) as they went 4-5.
I didn't fade Overs because they went 9-3 the previous week and they reverted to form at 5-9 (a 64% fade.)

Let's look at these, by week, since I started 'capping FCS. Here are the Overs:
Week one: 1-2
Week two: 1-5
Week three: 9-3
Week four: 5-9
Week three looks to be a freak week. Overall, a small winning play to fade them.

Now, Unders:
Week one: 10-3
Week two: 5-6
Week three: 12-3
Week four: 4-5
Generally speaking, you can't get hurt fading them every week, on the two weeks it lost it was only by one game, and overall it's hitting at a very strong 64%.

Back with this week's plays when the lines go up.

Update: Early buys (I got 67' @BM; 66' common #)

Buys:
Utah/Az Un 54'
NC St/Wake Un 66'

 

[RBD]

Adding two buys. From my other thread today:
I have two spots that qualify tonight: NP Un has Kent St/C Mich; OP Ov has Toledo/B Green
I'm not wild about passing up on another NP Un, but you KNOW what happens if you jump on a spot that you passed on the previous night and it won - Johnny Come Lately usually loses?
OP spots are a great fade at 6-16 (72%) but Overs are just 1-4 of that record. Nice %, but not a lot of data."

NP Unders are now 24-13 after last night's W.

Based on %'s for each play, they're worth a TV action/fun play here.

Buys:
Utah/Az Un 54'
NC St/Wake Un 66'
Tol/B Green Un 50
Kent St/C Mich Un 75'

 

[Tkj]

I like it! Good luck RBD ! Thanks!
:0074:0074:0074

 

[RBD]

Tkj - Noooooo! Don't "like" picks in this thread, I'm doing lousy here.
I keep repeating, "This is for fun/action" (though it's been a minimal amount of fun thus far) as a warning.
I know, I know, we're all big boys and make out own decisions, but . . .

If you played along last night I hope it was for small money as I keep noting. As I outlined yesterday, MAC games are usually not fun to play an Under on, and after not playing one the previous night, and it stayed Under, it was not advisable to jump on last night's spot. And that turned out to be a correct theory.

Recap: 0-2
Record: 30-42

I'm 12 games under .500, I think the worst I've ever been was 15 or so, in NBA (my worst sport.)
I'm going full kamikaze this weekend, riding all FBS spots that qualify, taking Unders and fading Overs.
By day's end I may find the hole I've dug has me almost to China.

Buys:
Utah/Az Un 54'
NC St/Wake Un 66'

 

[RBD]

As I said when I posted the weekly records for FCS spots, I'm fading all the FCS Overs today and taking all the FCS Unders. It's go big or go home day (well, not really "go home" since these are all small money plays and I could survive a bloodbath if that's how things turn out.)

The lines are just coming across now so I'll be updating in this post as I add plays (I don't want to keep adding new replies that bump this to the top, bad enough I'm setting a bad example with so many plays, no need to call attention to it, eh? But, all in the name of fun.)

FCS Overs: Morgan St/Albany

FCS Unders: Bucknell/Army, Valpo/Butler, Holy Cross/Fordham, Southern Ill/ Ind St, Marist/Presby, Yale/Princeton, LIU/Bryant, Norfolk St/Delaware St, Brown/Columbia
(Like last week, no play for me on the Presbyterian game Un. That's been the right move three of the last four weeks.)

Buys:
Utah/Az Un 54'
NC St/Wake Un 66'
Bucknell/Army Un 58
Valpo/Butler Un 56
Holy Cross/Fordham Un 59
S Ill/Ind St Un 54'
Yale/Princeton Un 51
LIU/Bryant Un 53
Norfolk St/Delaware St Un 55
Morgan St/Albany Un 39
Brown/Columbia Un 68
Elon/Towson Un 48
ETSU/W Car Un 64

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-10
Record: 33-52
From my previous post:
"These are all small money plays and I could survive a bloodbath if that's how things turn out."
Prophetic, eh?
By mid-afternoon I felt like Caesar on March 15, 44 BC.
The cuts came so quickly that I shut it down and did not bet the later games, which was the only right move I made as they would have put me even deeper in the hole.

Unders went 4-8 after weeks of . . .
Week one: 10-3
Week two: 5-6
Week three: 12-3
Week four: 4-5

The ONLY week playing all Unders could hurt was the week I jumped on, this past week.
Previously, the worst weekly loss was 1 unit.

Trying sides didn't pan out. Playing FCS Unders was a good strategy on paper at 31-17 (correction, 17 not 7), but in execution the %'s leveled out and I took a beating. At 19 games under .500 the only thing left to do is set a reasonable goal - get the deficit to single digits before the reg season ends. That means I have 4 weeks to get back at least 9 units. Best way to do that is to just stick to the tried and proved.
The games afoot.

 

[RBD]

Record: 33-52
As always with these, small $.

Saturday morning update, for tracking purposes only FCS games that qualify as an Un:
Charleston Southern, Tennessee State, Dartmouth, Colgate, VMI, Samford, Southern Illinois, Holy Cross, James Madison, Norfolk St, Presby, 'Bama St, Tarleton St, Dixie St

Overs: Wofford, St Francis, Marist, Drake, McNeese St, Gardner- W, Stetson, Mercer, Citadel

Buys:
W Forest/Clem Un 56'
Tex St/ CC Ov 61
UAB/Tex SA Un 53'
LA Laf/Liberty Un 53'
Kansas/TCU Un 64'