first two weeks of the season have been really lame for me. not used to this whole "losing in college football" thing. weird feeling. 
revised and final list of plays for saturday:
(scratched western michigan and florida. lost on uconn friday)
bigger plays:
michigan and san diego state under 24
(halftime play above)
akron (+31) over virginia
arizona state (-2) over iowa
texas christian (+6) over texas tech
ohio state / nc state under 46
toledo (-8.5) over eastern michigan
normal plays:
central florida (+23.5) over penn state
colorado state moneyline (+150) over minnesota :scared :scared
miami,ohio (-19.5) over ohio university
miami,ohio 2nd half (-9) over ohio university
"re"-add :
florida (+3) over tennessee
when it came down to it, just couldnt pass on akron in this spot. virginia certainly outclasses the zips, but cavs are in somewhat of a new territory, where theyre expected to pound the shit out of teams and cover big numbers. akron having two pathetic efforts in the first two weeks takes this line from 27-28ish to 31. thats a significant climb. 4+ touchdowns is a lot of points to give a good offense, especially one with a quarterback as good as anyone out there...zips defense will get shredded, but i think this one ultimately ends up around 46-21 or something like that.... main part of the asu play is the revenge angle. sometimes, revenge is 'over-handicapped', but i think the angle is definitely applicable here. iowa beat the shit out of asu last year in a game that was expected to be close. devils really underachieved last season but i looks -- to this point -- like they finally might be playing to their potential. dont really understand the pick'em type line, since i figured asu would be laying 3.5 or 4 points, but not complaining...... playing tcu because i expect them to run the football right down tech's throat. obviously, raiders are going to move the ball with that wide open offense, but i think tcu's bowl game last year vs. boise proves that a solid rushing offense is the best defense against an explosive passing team. tech will get their share of points, and may very well be up 7-10 at halftime, but i think frogs rushing game will ultimately wear down tech and this one will be decided by a late FG. ..... looks like im on an island with colorado state. but ive got way too much respect for lubick and his ability to coach in big games to not give him a shot here. minnesota has the ability to score 30+ pts, but theyve always been a questionable road team under mason. and csu's first two games (colorado, southern cal) have done a lot more to prepare them for this one than have minnesota's (toledo, illinois state) ...... finally, betting on a miami team with high expectations to get this ship righted. cant say i have tons of fundamental reasoning behind this one. its a high chalk, but once this game dropped under 20 points, i had to grab it. ohio is trying to experiment with throwing the ball more, but that could be trouble here. if they give miami more possessions, its gonna mean more of a rout. from what ive read, hoeppner has done a good job of focusing his guys for this game and putting the two non-conference games behind them. dont see miami being tested at all... got the number i was looking for on central florida. i think the knights are going to keep this one under 20 pts. penn state is kind of in a sandwich spot here. its early, but this game is in the middle of a power conference sandwich -- psu back home after a road night game at boston college and then they go to wisconsin and minny in the next two weeks (two ranked opponents). i dont think the lions are good enough to lay a focused beating on ucf. and i think ucf's two tough games to open the season only help them here.
ohio state under 46....after looking over some old osu numbers, a few things jumped out at me:
1) ohio state has gone under the total in their first road game in every year tressel has been head coach. that gives me reason to believe defense is emphasized at practice when osu hits the road because thats the way to win games in hostile environments.
2) ohio state went under the total in 3 of their 4 road games last season (the 3 unders all had < 40 pts)
3) ohio state went under the total in ALL 4 of their road games during the 2002 season (43,33,16,39)
and with zwick showing a propensity for making mistakes, i think the osu game plan is going to be super vanilla and they (once again) are going to play field position football and win with their defense. one thing that is very apparent with tressel is that he has no problem with playing the field position game and putting the game on the shoulders of the defense.
also worth noting that last years 3OT game was not a wide open game by any means. the game was 17-7 after 3 quarters before nc state made their rally behind rivers and then both teams scored a few times in OT. but both defenses played pretty well in regulation.
also -- for you side players, ohio state hasnt lost very much under tressel, but they are 0-3 in their first game away from columbus in his 3 years as head coach. that being said, no way do i bet against him here. i will take the under though.
revised and final list of plays for saturday:
(scratched western michigan and florida. lost on uconn friday)
bigger plays:
michigan and san diego state under 24
(halftime play above)
akron (+31) over virginia
arizona state (-2) over iowa
texas christian (+6) over texas tech
ohio state / nc state under 46
toledo (-8.5) over eastern michigan
normal plays:
central florida (+23.5) over penn state
colorado state moneyline (+150) over minnesota :scared :scared
miami,ohio (-19.5) over ohio university
miami,ohio 2nd half (-9) over ohio university
"re"-add :
florida (+3) over tennessee
when it came down to it, just couldnt pass on akron in this spot. virginia certainly outclasses the zips, but cavs are in somewhat of a new territory, where theyre expected to pound the shit out of teams and cover big numbers. akron having two pathetic efforts in the first two weeks takes this line from 27-28ish to 31. thats a significant climb. 4+ touchdowns is a lot of points to give a good offense, especially one with a quarterback as good as anyone out there...zips defense will get shredded, but i think this one ultimately ends up around 46-21 or something like that.... main part of the asu play is the revenge angle. sometimes, revenge is 'over-handicapped', but i think the angle is definitely applicable here. iowa beat the shit out of asu last year in a game that was expected to be close. devils really underachieved last season but i looks -- to this point -- like they finally might be playing to their potential. dont really understand the pick'em type line, since i figured asu would be laying 3.5 or 4 points, but not complaining...... playing tcu because i expect them to run the football right down tech's throat. obviously, raiders are going to move the ball with that wide open offense, but i think tcu's bowl game last year vs. boise proves that a solid rushing offense is the best defense against an explosive passing team. tech will get their share of points, and may very well be up 7-10 at halftime, but i think frogs rushing game will ultimately wear down tech and this one will be decided by a late FG. ..... looks like im on an island with colorado state. but ive got way too much respect for lubick and his ability to coach in big games to not give him a shot here. minnesota has the ability to score 30+ pts, but theyve always been a questionable road team under mason. and csu's first two games (colorado, southern cal) have done a lot more to prepare them for this one than have minnesota's (toledo, illinois state) ...... finally, betting on a miami team with high expectations to get this ship righted. cant say i have tons of fundamental reasoning behind this one. its a high chalk, but once this game dropped under 20 points, i had to grab it. ohio is trying to experiment with throwing the ball more, but that could be trouble here. if they give miami more possessions, its gonna mean more of a rout. from what ive read, hoeppner has done a good job of focusing his guys for this game and putting the two non-conference games behind them. dont see miami being tested at all... got the number i was looking for on central florida. i think the knights are going to keep this one under 20 pts. penn state is kind of in a sandwich spot here. its early, but this game is in the middle of a power conference sandwich -- psu back home after a road night game at boston college and then they go to wisconsin and minny in the next two weeks (two ranked opponents). i dont think the lions are good enough to lay a focused beating on ucf. and i think ucf's two tough games to open the season only help them here.
ohio state under 46....after looking over some old osu numbers, a few things jumped out at me:
1) ohio state has gone under the total in their first road game in every year tressel has been head coach. that gives me reason to believe defense is emphasized at practice when osu hits the road because thats the way to win games in hostile environments.
2) ohio state went under the total in 3 of their 4 road games last season (the 3 unders all had < 40 pts)
3) ohio state went under the total in ALL 4 of their road games during the 2002 season (43,33,16,39)
and with zwick showing a propensity for making mistakes, i think the osu game plan is going to be super vanilla and they (once again) are going to play field position football and win with their defense. one thing that is very apparent with tressel is that he has no problem with playing the field position game and putting the game on the shoulders of the defense.
also worth noting that last years 3OT game was not a wide open game by any means. the game was 17-7 after 3 quarters before nc state made their rally behind rivers and then both teams scored a few times in OT. but both defenses played pretty well in regulation.
also -- for you side players, ohio state hasnt lost very much under tressel, but they are 0-3 in their first game away from columbus in his 3 years as head coach. that being said, no way do i bet against him here. i will take the under though.
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