NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

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NCAAB

Thursday, February 8

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Trend Report
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Cnotes53

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THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CHAT at VMI06:00 PMCHAT -15.5
U 161.0		+500 +500
ALBY at BING06:07 PMALBY +3.0
U 154.0		+500 +500
MILW at YSU06:30 PMMILW +8.5
O 161.0		+500 +500
HOF at HAMP07:00 PMHAMP +10.0
O 148.5		+500 +500
SHSU at JVST07:00 PMSHSU +2.5
O 135.0		+500 +500
SPU at QUIN07:00 PMQUIN -7.5
O 135.5		+500 +500
RID at FAIR07:00 PMRID +4.5
O 149.0		+500 +500
MEM at TEM07:00 PMTEM +8.5
U 147.0		+500 +500
IONA at NIAG07:00 PMIONA -2.5
U 146.5		+500 +500
OAK at NKU07:00 PMOAK -1.0
O 144.5		+500 +500
UVM at NJIT07:00 PMUVM -14.0
U 133.0		+500 +500
NORAL at UNF07:00 PMUNF -6.0
U 153.5		+500 +500
DEL at TOWS07:00 PMTOWS -4.0
O 133.0		+500 +500
UMASS at UMBC07:00 PMUMBC +7.5
U 164.0		+500 +500
CWM at MONM07:00 PMCWM +8.5
U 142.0		+500 +500
IOWA at PSU07:00 PMIOWA -1.0
U 162.5		+500 +500
CARK at JAC07:00 PMJAC -6.5
U 145.5		+500 +500
UNH at BRY07:00 PMBRY -5.5
U 160.0		+500 +500
MW at LIU07:00 PMMW -12.0
O 135.0		+500 +500
SAM at UNCG07:00 PMSAM +1.0
O 149.5		+500 +500
DETU at WRST07:00 PMDETU +18.0
O 160.0		+500 +500
WAG at FDU07:00 PMFDU -2.5
U 139.5		+500 +500
MAN at MSM07:00 PMMSM -10.0
U 141.0		+500 +500
MRST at SIE07:00 PMSIE +4.5
O 128.0		+500 +500
NE at CAMP07:00 PMCAMP +2.0
O 133.5		+500 +500
MTU at LIB07:00 PMMTU +11.0
O 131.0		+500 +500
DREX at UNCW07:00 PMUNCW -4.0
O 137.5		+500 +500
WIGB at RMU07:00 PMWIGB +2.5
O 137.5		+500 +500
SH at CCSU07:00 PMCCSU -6.0
O 146.0		+500 +500
STON at ELON07:00 PMSTON -3.5
U 142.0		+500 +500
UTRGV at SFA07:30 PMSFA -16.0
U 149.5		+500 +500
DEN at SDAK08:00 PMSDAK +3.5
O 162.0		+500 +500
KC at NDSU08:00 PMKC +4.0
O 136.5		+500 +500
NCAT at COFC08:00 PMNCAT +21.5
O 154.5		+500 +500
NEOM at UND08:00 PMUND -4.0
O 146.0		+500 +500
ARIZ at UTAH08:00 PMUTAH +5.5
U 160.5		+500 +500
TST at UVU08:00 PMUVU -3.5
U 137.5		+500 +500
MTST at UNCO08:00 PMUNCO -6.5
U 155.0		+500 +500
ORU at STT08:00 PMSTT -6.5
O 144.0		+500 +500
KENN at PEAY08:00 PMKENN -2.0
O 153.0		+500 +500
MONT at NAU08:00 PMMONT -5.5
U 144.0		+500 +500
ASU at COLO08:00 PMCOLO -14.5
U 148.5		+500 +500
QNC at LIP08:00 PMQNC +7.5
O 168.0		+500 +500
TNTC at SEMO08:30 PMTNTC -1.0
O 136.0		+500 +500
UALR at WIU08:30 PMWIU -1.0
O 140.0		+500 +500
TNST at LNDNWD08:30 PMTNST -4.5
U 138.0		+500 +500
EIU at USI08:30 PMUSI -4.0
U 134.5		+500 +500
CSUS at IDST09:00 PMCSUS +5.5
O 125.0		+500 +500
FAU at UAB09:00 PMFAU -6.0
O 156.0		+500 +500
SIUE at MORE09:00 PMSIUE +10.5
U 131.0		+500 +500
SUU at UTECH09:00 PMUTECH +2.5
U 152.0		+500 +500
PRST at WEB09:00 PMWEB -9.5
U 143.5		+500 +500
CSF at UCD09:00 PMUCD -6.0
U 134.0		+500 +500
WASH at ORE10:00 PMORE -8.5
U 155.0		+500 +500
CP at CSN10:00 PMCSN -10.5
U 142.0		+500 +500
WSU at ORST10:00 PMORST +9.0
O 134.5		+500 +500
ACU at SEA10:00 PMSEA -10.0
U 141.5		+500 +500
UCI at UCSB10:00 PMUCI -3.5
U 143.0		+500 +500
CSB at UCRV10:00 PMCSB +4.5
O 131.0		+500 +500
UTA at CALBA10:00 PMUTA +3.5
O 141.0		+500 +500
SF at PEPP11:00 PMSF -9.5
U 146.5		+500 +500
UCSD at HAW11:59 PMHAW -1.0
U 138.0		+500 +500
 
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Friday’s 6-pack:
— Warriors 131, Pacers 109- Steph Curry was 11-16 on the arc.
— Magic 127, Spurs 117- Franz Wagner scored 34 points, had 7 assists.
— Cavaliers 118, Nets 95- Cleveland has won 8 in row, 16 of last 17 games.
— Bulls 118, Memphis 110- Chicago was +19 with Vucevic, minus-11 without him.
— Timberwolves 129, Bucks 105- Milwaukee is 1-4 with Doc Rivers as coach.
— Suns 129, Jazz 115- Kevin Durant had 31 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists.

Quote of the Day
“We need a backup quarterback. We didn’t have one last year.”
Jets’ owner Woody Johnson, apparently not a fan of Zach Wilson

Friday’s quiz
Bill Russell played 13 years in the NBA, won 11 titles; what college did he go to?

Thursday’s quiz
Daryle Lamonica was the Oakland Raiders’ QB in Super Bowl II.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the basketball movie Blue Chips, Nick Nolte’s team played against a team coached by Rick Pitino (also George Raveling, Bob Knight).

***************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..​

— “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”
Ferris Bueller
If you had told me two months ago that on National Signing Day for college football, Nick Saban would be playing in the pro-am at the Phoenix Open golf tournament, I would’ve scoffed at you, but here we are, with Saban hacking away in Arizona, the same day it is announced that he is now part of ESPN’s GameDay, the Saturday morning pre-game show for college football.
I’d rather hear him do analysis on games, but Lee Corso will be 89 in August, so Saban figures to take that spot, eventually.

— Blind resumes for two QB’s who aren’t in the Hall of Fame:
Player A: 72-72 in regular season, 8-2 in playoffs, won two Super Bowls.
Player B: 117-117 in regular season, 8-4 in playoffs, won two Super Bowls.
Which guy are you putting in Hall of Fame? Both? Neither?

— 34 of 57 Super Bowls have been decided by 10+ points.
Over the last 22 Super Bowls, #1-seeds are 2-9 when playing an opponent who wasn’t a #1-seed.

— Eliot Wolf is going to be the mew personnel guru in New England; he was the Patriots’ director of scouting the last two years. Wolf has spent most of his career with the Packers.

— Philadelphia Eagles are only NFL team ever to start out 10-1 two years in a row, and not win a championship in either season.

— I’m looking forward to next April’s NFL Draft; the Rams will actually have a first round pick. Last time they had a first round pick was 2016, when they drafted Jared Goff.

— In case you were wondering, Riddler was the villain on the first episode of the old Batman TV series, back when I was a little kid. Frank Gorshin was great in that role.

— Before Thursday’s game in New York, Dallas Maverick star Luka Doncic had played 42+ minutes in five of his last six games; no player in the last six seasons has played that many minutes, without playing in an overtime.
Doncic played 40:00 Thursday, scored 39 points (with 11 assists) in a 122-108 win against the Knicks. Dallas was +18 with Doncic on the floor, minus-4 with him on the bench.

— Utah Jazz outscored Milwaukee 40-13 in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s 123-108 win; they’re the only team in the last 25 years to outscore an opponent by 25+ points in a quarter, while using the same five guys for the entire quarter.

— Baseball Note of the Day: Dodgers re-signed lefty P Clayton Kershaw, bringing him back for his 17th major league season. Kershaw won’t be available until sometime next summer; he had surgery on his left shoulder after last year’s playoffs.

— Famous people who were born on February 9:
Joe Pesci
Carole King
Vince Papale
Bill Veeck
Mookie Wilson
 
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VA COMMONWEALTH is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after 2 consecutive conference games in the current season.

SAN DIEGO ST is 58-33 ATS (21.7 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more in the current season.




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, February 9

Friday’s 3 interesting games
Dayton (-1.5) @ VCU
Dayton (19-3, 9-1)
KenPom rating: 23
Tempo: 347
Experience: 80
Continuity: 189
Dayton won three in row, 16 of last 17 games.
Flyers are 4-1 SU/3-1 ATS as an A-14 road favorite.
Dayton has #12 eFG% in the country.
Flyers are 6-3 vs top 100 teams.


VCU (16-6, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 85
Tempo: 296
Experience: 241
Continuity: 340
VCU won seven of its last eight games.
Rams are 3-2 SU in A-14 home games.
VCU is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Rams are 3-6 vs teams in the top 100.


VCU won six of last eight series games.
Road team won last four meetings.
Flyers won last two visits to VCU, by 30-4 points.
AAC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 4-5 ATS.


San Diego State @ Nevada (-1.5)
San Diego State (18-5, 7-3)
KenPom rating: 20
Tempo: 224
Experience: 54
Continuity: 130
San Diego State lost three of its last four road games.
Aztecs are 2-3 SU/1-1-1 ATS as MW road underdogs.
Aztecs have the #68 eFG% defense in the country.
San Diego State is 8-5 against teams ranked in top 100.


Nevada (18-5, 5-4)
KenPom rating: 48
Tempo: 225
Experience: 5
Continuity: 41
Nevada won three of its last four games
Wolf Pack is 3-1 SU/2-2 as a MW home favorite.
Wolf Pack is getting 23.7% of its points on foul line (#18)
Nevada is 4-4 vs top 100 teams.


Nevada (+6.5) lost 71-59 at Viejas January 17.
San Diego State won 10 of last 11 series games.
Teams split their last four meetings in Reno.
MW home favorites of less than 4 points are 4-5 ATS.


San Jose State @ Colorado State (-16.5)
San Jose State (8-15, 1-9)
KenPom rating: 219
Tempo: 283
Experience: 209
Continuity: 136
San Jose State lost six in row, nine of last ten games.
Spartans are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS as MW road underdogs.
San Jose State has #317 eFG% defense in country.
Spartans are 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Colorado State (15-7, 6-5)
KenPom rating: 41
Tempo: 69
Experience: 73
Continuity: 89
Colorado State won its last three games, scoring 75.7 ppg.
Rams are 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in MW home games.
CSU is shooting 58.9% inside arc (#6)
Rams are 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 150.


San Jose swept Rams LY, after losing previous 17 meetings.
Spartans lost six of their last seven visits to Fort Collins.
Mountain West double digit home favorites are 5-4 ATS.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, February 9

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NCAAB

Friday, February 9

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Trend Report
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Dayton @ VCU
Dayton
Dayton is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Dayton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
VCU
The total has gone OVER in 5 of VCU's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of VCU's last 5 games when playing Dayton

San Diego State @ Nevada
San Diego State
San Diego State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Nevada
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego State's last 7 games on the road
Nevada
Nevada is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Nevada is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Diego State

San Jose State @ Colorado State
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games when playing Colorado State
Colorado State
Colorado State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Colorado State is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games when playing San Jose State


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FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DAY at VCU07:00 PMVCU +2.0
O 134.0		+500 +500
SDSU at NEV08:00 PMSDSU +2.0
U 142.5		+500 +500
SJSU at CSU09:30 PMCSU -16.0
O 147.5		+500 +500
 
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Saturday’s 6-pack:
College hoop teams whose subs play the fewest minutes:
14.9%— Princeton
16.8%— Ball State
17.6%— Indiana State
17.6%— Citadel
18.2%— Tulane
18.9%— Air Force

Quote of the Day
“It’s always been the turnover or the loose ball or the rebounding that has to get better. Without question, it’s our defense. We’re slow laterally, we’re unathletic and we’re small.”
St John’s coach Rick Pitino

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Brock Purdy play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
Bill Russell played 13 years in the NBA, won 11 titles; he went to college at San Francisco

Thursday’s quiz
Daryle Lamonica was the Oakland Raiders’ QB in Super Bowl II.

********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff on a winter night……​

— We start today with a TV recommendation: Rolling Along, with former NBA player/US Senator Bill Bradley talking about his life from Missouri childhood to Princeton basketball fame, the NBA, and his 18 years in the Senate.
Rolling Along is on HBO Max; it is like listening to a college History class, taught by someone who was there.

— Purdue’s basketball team is 21-2 this season, 10-2 in conference play; they’re on their way to being a #1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Will they get there?
Let’s take a look at coach Matt Painter’s March resume:
In Purdue’s last two NCAA tourney games, things didn’t go well:
2022- lost 67-64 to Saint Peter’s in Sweet 16, as a 13-point favorite.
2023- lost 63-58 to FDU in first round, as a 23-point favorite.
Not good, but a small sample size; here is his whole March resume:
1st round- 10-5 SU/10-5 against the spread
2nd round- 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS. He’s been a good first weekend coach, except for last year.
Sweet 16- 1-5 SU/1-5 ATS. No bueno. Purdue was an underdog in 4 of those 6 games.
Elite 8- 0-1 SU/ATS
Overall, Painter is 10-8 ATS in NCAA’s as a favorite, 7-6 as an underdog. I’m not sure why Zach Edey hasn’t gone to the NBA yet, but this will be Painter’s best chance to get to a Final Four.

— I’m guessing the Las Vegas Raiders aren’t thrilled that the arch-rival Chiefs are using their facilities to practice for Sunday’s Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes, by the way, is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. He made $37M this season; 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy is on a 4-year contract, worth a total of $3.73M ($932,000/year)

— Chiefs/49ers both get 16% of the tickets for the Super Bowl; the host team Raiders get 4% of the tickets to sell.

— NFL is going to have a regular season game in Brazil next year, one in Spain in 2025.

— Netflix is going to do a Hard Knocks-type show on the Boston Red Sox this season; not sure exactly when it will be on TV, but it will be about the 2024 season. This is something that is long overdue; baseball needs all the TV exposure it can get.

— With spring training starting next week, interesting to note that the Atlanta Braves have won the NL East six years in a row, and they’re favored to win it again this season.

— Baseball Note of the Day: Active career leaders in strikeouts:
3,367- Max Scherzer
3,342- Justin Verlander
2,944- Clayton Kershaw
2,189- Chris Sale
2,152- Gerrit Cole

— Movie of the Day: The Intern (2015)- A 70-year old retiree becomes a senior intern at an online fashion site. Robert DeNiro is the intern, Anne Hathaway is the person who owns the fashion site. She doesn’t intend to give him much work, but he proves to be quite useful, a source of support and wisdom. Good movie.

— Boston College hired Bill O’Brien as its new football coach; O’Brien was 54-52 as coach of the Houston Texans from 2014-20. He was 15-9 in two years at Penn State (2012-13) and spent the last three weeks as Ohio State’s new offensive coordinator, after working with the Patriots this past season.

— Ohio State filled the OC opening by hiring UCLA Chip Kelly, who once upon a time, went 28-36 coaching in the NFL (Eagles/49ers). Kelly was 46-7 in four years coaching Oregon, 35-34 in six years at UCLA.
UCLA has to act fast to replace Kelly, because in today’s bizarre world, UCLA’s players will get poached by other schools if the Bruins don’t name a new head coach soon.

— Michigan Wolverines hired former Ravens/Giants DC Wink Martindale as its new defensive coordinator, where his biggest job will be how to stop Kelly’s offense next November.

— Amazon Prime Video is going to have a Wild Card playoff game on TV next season

— Guard named Ish Smith holds the NBA record for most teams; he’s played on 13 different teams in his career.

— There are eight sets of twins playing college basketball this season.

— Last defending champion to make the Sweet 16 in the NCAA basketball tournament was Duke, way back in 2016.

— VCU 49, Dayton 47
Only 2nd loss in last 18 games for the Flyers.
Teams combined to shoot 9-38 on the arc.
Dayton was only 9-18 on foul line.

— Nevada 70, San Diego State 66, OT
Teams combined to shoot 6-32 on the arc.
Wolf Pack won four of its last five games.
San Diego State lost four of last five road games.
 
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, February 10

Saturday’s 5 interesting games
Illinois @ Michigan State (-2.5)
Illinois (17-5, 8-3)
KenPom rating: 9
Tempo: 75
Experience: 12
Continuity: 162
Illinois won five of its last six games.
Illini is 3-2 SU/2-0 ATS as a Big 14 road underdog.
Illinois has #17 eFG% defense in the country.
Illini is 8-5 vs top 100 teams.


Michigan State (14-9, 6-6)
KenPom rating: 17
Tempo: 308
Experience: 71
Continuity: 20
Michigan State won five of its last seven games.
Spartans are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS as Big 14 home favorites.
MSU has #34 eFG% defense in country.
Spartans are 3-6 vs teams in the top 50.


Illinois (-3.5) beat MSU 71-68 at home January 11.
Illinois outscored Spartans 18-5 on foul line in that game.
Illinois won last four series games.
Illini lost four of last five visits to East Lansing.
Big 14 home favorites of less than 4 points are 8-5 ATS.


TCU @ Iowa State (-6.5)
TCU (16-6, 5-4)
KenPom rating: 29
Tempo: 68
Experience: 3
Continuity: 144
TCU won three of its last four games.
Horned Frogs are 2-2 SU/2-1 ATS as Big X road dogs.
Horned Frogs are #22 team on offensive boards.
TCU is 4-6 against teams ranked in top 100.


Iowa State (17-5, 6-3)
KenPom rating: 12
Tempo: 133
Experience: 126
Continuity: 201
Iowa State won four of its last five games
Cyclones are 4-0 SU/2-1 as a Big X home favorite.
Cyclones are forcing turnovers 26.1% of time (#2)
Iowa State is 7-5 vs top 100 teams.


Iowa State (+5.5) won 73-72 at TCU January 20.
Horned Frogs turned ball over 27 times in that game.
Iowa State won last four series games.
Teams split their last four meetings at Iowa State.
Big X home favorites of less than 7 points are 13-16 ATS.


Gonzaga @ Kentucky (-5.5)
Gonzaga (17-6)
KenPom rating: 22
Tempo: 61
Experience: 145
Continuity: 218
Gonzaga won six of its last seven games.
Zags are 9-4 outside WCC, 5-5 vs top 100 teams.
Gonzaga has #19 eFG% in country.
Gonzaga has #24 eFG% defense in country.


Kentucky (16-6)
KenPom rating: 24
Tempo: 11
Experience: 167
Continuity: 320
Kentucky lost three of its last five games.
Wildcats are 10-2 outside SEC, 5-5 vs top 100 teams.
Kentucky has #7 eFG% in country.
Last three games, Kentucky scored 91-92-109 points.


Kentucky lost 88-72 at Gonzaga last year.
WCC non-conference road underdogs are 9-16 ATS
SEC non-conference home favorites are 34-31 ATS.


St John’s @ Marquette (-7.5)
St John’s (14-9, 6-6)
KenPom rating: 27
Tempo: 174
Experience: 43
Continuity: 1
St John’s lost five of its last seven games.
Red Storm is 1-4 SU/3-1 ATS as Big East road dog.
St John’s is shooting 30.5% on arc in Big East play (#10 of 11)
Red Storm is 5-6 vs top 50 teams.


Marquette (17-5, 8-3)
KenPom rating: 10
Tempo: 176
Experience: 121
Continuity: 3
Marquette won its last six games (5-1 ATS)
Marquette is 4-1 SU/ATS as a Big East home favorite.
Golden Eagles are forcing turnovers 22.6% of time (#9).
Marquette is 9-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Marquette (+1.5) won 73-72 at St John’s January 20.
Marquette was down 10 in first half; they were 3-9 on foul line.
Golden Eagles won last five series games.
Red Storm lost three of last four visits to Marquette.
Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 5-16 ATS.


Arizona @ Colorado (-1.5)
Arizona (18-5, 9-3)
KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 15
Experience: 88
Continuity: 215
Arizona won its last four games, scoring 91 ppg.
Wildcats won in triple OT at Utah Thursday.
Arizona is 3-3 SU on Pac-12 road this season.
Wildcats are 11-4 in games vs top 100 opponents.


Colorado (16-7, 7-5)
KenPom rating: 27
Tempo: 101
Experience: 191
Continuity: 57
Colorado lost two of its last three games.
Buffs are 6-0 SU/2-3-1 ATS as Pac-12 home favorites.
Buffs have #25 eFG% in country.
Colorado is 7-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Arizona (-11) waxed Colorado 97-50 at home January 4.
Home team won last 14 series games.
Arizona won six of last eight meetings.
Wildcats lost their last five visits to Boulder.
Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 ATS
 
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NCAAB

Saturday, February 10

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Trend Report
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