NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

Udog · Jan 4, 2024

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 18

Sunday’s games
Falcons (7-9) @ Saints (8-8)
— Falcons can win NFC South if they win and Bucs lose.
— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta scored 28-23-29-17 points in Heinicke’s four starts.
— Heinicke is 13-15-1 as an NFL starter, 1-3 this year.
— Falcons are 26-58 (44.8%) on 3rd down in Heinicke’s starts.
— Atlanta is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— underdogs covered nine of Atlanta’s last 12 games.
— Atlanta is 13-11 ATS in last 24 games as a road dog (1-2 TY).
— Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last two games, Falcons were 9-26 (34.6%) on third down.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 8-7-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-7-2

— New Orleans needs this win and some help to make playoffs.
— Saints won three of their last four games SU.
— Last three games, opponents are 8-36 on third down.
— Saints are 8-8, but have been an underdog in only 4 of 14 games.
— Saints outscored last five opponents 73-38 in second half.
— New Orleans is 7-3 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Saints are 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— New Orleans is 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite (2-4 TY).
— New Orleans scored 15 TD’s on its last 54 drives.
— under is 3-1 in Saints’ last four games.
— Saints are 1-4 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-8. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Falcons (+2) beat New Orleans 24-15 at home in Week 12.
— Atlanta ran ball for 228 yards in that game.
— Saints won eight of last eleven series games.
— Falcons covered three of last four visits to the Superdome.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Underdogs are 6-3-1 ATS in NFC South divisional games.

Browns (11-5) @ Bengals (8-7)
— Driskel will start at QB, Browns’ 5th starting QB this season.
— Driskel is 1-9 as an NFL starter (1-4 with Bengals in 2018).
— Browns have already clinched a playoff spot; Flacco will rest.
— Cleveland won/covered its last four games, by 4-3-14-17 points.
— Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
— Cleveland is 9-3 SU in last 11 games (7-2 ATS in last nine)
— Last seven weeks, Browns are 32-106 (30.2%) on third down.
— Last four weeks, Cleveland have seven TD plays of 29+ yards.
— Browns are 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (5-5 TY).
— Browns are 8-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Opponents have converted only 64-219 (29.2%) third down plays.
— over is 5-1 in last six Cleveland games.
— AFC North favorites are 18-10 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 10-3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 8-7

— Bengals lost last two games, scoring 11-17 points.
— Cincinnati was eliminated from playoff race last week.
— Last three weeks, Cincy was outscored 44-20 in first half.
— Over is 6-2 in Bengals’ last eight games.
— Bengals are 6-2 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 allowing more than 2o.
— Cincinnati is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite (3-3-1 TY).
— Cincinnati is 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Bengals are 2-4-1 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
— Backup QB Browning is completing 69.9% of passes (9 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— Browning is 3-3 as an NFL starter.
— Six of Bengals’ last seven games went over total.
— Team total: under 10-6. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Browns (+2) beat Cincinnati 24-3 at home in the season opener.
— Cleveland ran for 206 yards; Bengals had only 152 total yards.
— Cleveland won nine of last 11 series games.
— Browns are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Cincinnati.
— Over is 6-2-2 in last ten meetings.
— underdogs are 7-3 ATS in AFC North divisional games.

Jets (6-10) @ Patriots (4-12)
— Jets split their last four games, scoring 30-0-31-20 points.
— Last five games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers (4-12)
— This season, Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jets are 1-8 when they score less than 20 points.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 13-17 ATS as a coming off a loss.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-11-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last 12 games, Jets converted 47-191 (24.6%) third down plays.
— QB Siemian is 14-18 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.
— Last three games, Jets were outscored 30-6 in second half.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Jets were outscored 62-6 in first two AFC East road games TY.
— Team total: under 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Patriots split their last four games, after a 1-8 skid.
— Five of NE’s last six losses were by six or fewer points.
— Patriots are 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
— NE is 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less.
— New England is 4-6 ATS in games coming off a loss TY.
— Patriots are 3-5 ATS in last eight AFC East home games.
— New England is minus-10 in turnovers this year (+38 from 2019-22).
— Since Brady left, NE is 29-37 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 84-102 without Brady.
— Zappe is 4-3 as an NFL starting QB, Mac James 18-26.
— Last four New England games went over the total.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Patriots (-2) beat Jets 15-10 in New Jersey in Week 3.
— New England outgained Jets 358-171 in that game.
— Patriots won their last 16 games SU against the Jets.
— Jets are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in AFC East divisional games.

Jaguars (9-7) @ Titans (5-11)
— Jacksonville wins AFC South if they win this game.
— Jaguars lost four of their last four games.
— QB Lawrence is banged up (concussion/shoulder; check status)
— Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as road favorites (3-1 TY)
— Jaguars are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off win (5-2 TY).
— Last four weeks, Jaguars were outscored 44-16 in first half.
— Jaguars are minus-11 in turnovers in their losses (+5 in wins).
— Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in last five AFC South road games.
— Pederson is 65-55-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-29 as an NFL starter; backup Beathard is 3-10.
— Jaguars’ last three games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 8-7-1. Opponents’ team total: over 8-8

— Titans lost seven of their last nine games.
— Last three games, Titans scored 12 ppg.
— Check status on which QB starts for Tennessee.
— Tennessee is 13-7 ATS last 20 games as home underdogs (3-2 TY)
— Titans are 1-4 ATS in last five AFC South home games.
— Tennessee fired its special teams coach last month.
— Titans are 4-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-10 scoring 17 or less.
— Tennessee is 16-14-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss (4-5 TY).
— Titans are minus-8 in turnovers (10-18) so far this season.
— QB Tannehill is 82-73 as an NFL starter; Levis is 3-6.
— Under is 10-4 in Tennessee’s last 13 games.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 8-5-3

— Jaguars (-6.5) beat Tennessee 34-14 at home in Week 11.
— Jacksonville won last three series games, scoring 30.7 ppg.
— Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Nashville.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
— Road teams are 6-4 ATS in AFC South divisional games.

Vikings (7-9) @ Lions (11-5)
— 4th-string QB Mullens (5-15 as NFL starter) gets nod here.
— Mullens has completed 67.3% of passes (5 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— He is Vikings’ 4th starting QB in 16 games this year.
— Vikings lost five of last six games (the win was 3-0).
— Last two games, Minnesota is minus-5 in turnovers (1-6)
— Minnesota is 6-8 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 1-6 when they allow 27+ points.
— Vikings are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss
— Vikings have won field position in 2 of 16 games this season.
— Over is 3-0 in Minnesota’s last three games.
— Vikings are 6-5 ATS in last 11 NFC North road games (2-0 TY).
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 9-6-1

— Last week, Lions clinched their first division title since 1993.
— Next week, Detroit has its first home playoff game in 30 years.
— Win can help their seeding; regulars figure to play.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 8-4 ATS as road underdog (4-3 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss (4-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 34-15-1 ATS overall.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 6-2 ATS in NFC North home games.
— Last three games, Detroit is +4 in turnovers (7-3)
— Last eight games, Lions ran ball for 155.4 yards/game.
— Lions are 8-1 when they score 26+ points, 3-4 when they don’t.
— Detroit has 12 TD’s on its last 29 drives.
— Goff is 67-53-1 as an NFL starter, 23-22-1 with the Lions.
— over is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— Lions (-2.5) won 30-24 in Minnesota two weeks ago.
— Vikings ran ball for only 17 yards, were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Minnesota is 8-3 in last 11 series games (2-3 in last five).
— Vikings are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three visits to Detroit.
— Over is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
— Road teams are 9-1 ATS in NFC North divisional games TY.

Buccaneers (8-8) @ Panthers (2-14)
— Tampa Bay clinches NFC South win a win here.
— Bucs won four of their last five games, but lost to Saints LW.
— Tampa Bay covered seven of its last ten games.
— Bucs are 2-7 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 6-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS on the road this year.
— Bucs are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite (0-0 TY)
— This year, Buccaneers are 4-3 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games.
— Mayfield is 40-47 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Bucs are 5-3 ATS in last eight NFC South road games.
— Team total: over 7-7-2. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Carolina lost eight of its last nine games (3-2 ATS last five).
— Panthers didn’t score a TD in three of their last four games.
— Carolina allowed 13-7 points in its two wins.
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants last month.
— Carolina is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home dog (3-3-1 TY)
— Panthers are 3-2 ATS in last five games, overall.
— Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 94-25 in first half.
— Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS this year in games following a loss.
— last 3 years, Panthers are 10-21-1 ATS in games following a loss.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in last five NFC South home games.
— Team total: under 11-5. Opponents’ team total: over 10-6

— Tampa Bay (-3.5) beat Carolina 21-18 at home in Week 13.
— Tampa Bay won seven of last eight series games.
— Bucs are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.

Cowboys (11-5) @ Commanders (4-12)
— Dallas has clinched playoff spot, is trying for #2 seed now.
— Cowboys lost two of last three games, is 1-4 ATS in last five.
— Dallas is 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite (3-1 TY)
— Favorites covered seven of their eight road games TY.
— Dallas scored 15.8 ppg in losses, 35.6 ppg in wins.
— Cowboys are +14 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-15 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
— Dallas is 5-3 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
— QB Prescott is 76-43 as an NFL starter.
— Last two games, Dallas was outscored 37-17 in first half.
— Three of last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Team total: over 10-6. Opponents’ team total: under 9-6-1

— Washington lost seven in row, 12 of last 14 games (3-7 ATS last ten)
— Commanders covered once in their last six games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-12 as NFL starter.
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator in November.
— Since then, Washington allowed 34.3 points/game.
— Washington is 1-11 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last seven games, Commanders are minus-9 in turnovers (5-14).
— Washington is 11-17 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Last 14 games, Commanders were outscored 228-99 in 1st half.
— six of their last nine games went over the total.
— Washington is 2-5-1 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
— Team total: under 5-1 last six Opponents’ team total: over 12-4

— Cowboys (-13) whacked Washington 45-10 at home in Week 12.
— Cowboys averaged 10.3 yards/pass attempt in that game.
— Dallas won 12 of last 16 series games.
— Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last nine visits here.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
— Home teams are 5-4-1 ATS in NFC East home games.

Rams (9-7) @ 49ers (12-4)
— Rams are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven games; they’re in playoffs.
— Regulars will be rested in this game; Rams play next week.
— Backup QB Wentz (46-46-1 as an NFL starter) gets his first Rams start.
— Rams are 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 5-7 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 8-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 98-46 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Last six weeks, LA scored 17.2 ppg in first half, leading all six games.
— LA is 2-3 SU outdoors this season, scoring 20 ppg.
— under McVay, Rams are 28-35-2 ATS coming off a win, 4-3-1 TY.
— under McVay, Rams are 10-10-3 ATS as road underdogs, 2-2-1 TY.
— Five of Rams’ last six games went over the total.
— Team total: over 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— QB Purdy, RB McCaffrey won’t play in this game.
— SF is 7-1 since its bye week (5-3 ATS), scoring 31.6 ppg.
— 49ers have another bye week next week- they’re #1 seed.
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17-19 in losses.
— 49ers have outscored opponents 216-128 in 2nd half.
— SF ran for 171.2 yards/game in their last six games.
— 49ers are 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— SF is 18-13 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
— Last five weeks, 49ers have 24 TD’s on 58 drives.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— backup QB Darnold is 21-34 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-7

— This game means nothing to either team, other than a rivalry game.
— 49ers (-7) beat Rams 30-23 at SoFi back in Week 2.
— 49ers won five in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Rams are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.

Eagles (11-5) @ Giants (5-11)
— Eagles are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five games.
— Philly can still get #2 seed, if they win and Dallas loses.
— Eagle defense gave up 29 points in 2nd half of LW’s loss.
— Last six weeks, Philly gave up 31.5 ppg.
— Last three games, Eagles outscored foes 41-12 in first half.
— Last four games, Philly is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 3-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 36-18 SU.
— Last two years, Eagles are 1-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Hurts is 36-18 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 6-3 in Eagles’ last nine games.
— Eagles were minus-8 in turnovers in their losses (+2 in wins).
— Team total: over 9-6-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-2 last nine

— Giants lost last three games, giving up 24-33-26 points.
— Last nine weeks, Big Blue was outscored 119-50 in first half.
— QB Taylor is 27-29-1 as an NFL starter, 1-3 this year.
— Last five weeks, Giants are 19-68 on third down.
— Giants gained 389 yards LW, their most since Week 2.
— Last 12 games, Giants are +16 in turnovers.
— TY, Giants are 5-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Big Blue is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
— Giants are 3-5 ATS in last eight NFC East home games.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven Giant games.
— Team total: under 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Eagles (-13) beat Giants 33-25 at home two weeks ago.
— Eagles outgained Giants 465-292, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Philly won 18 of last 21 series games.
— Eagles are 6-4 ATS in last ten visits to the Garden State.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Home teams are 5-4-1 ATS in NFC East home games.

Bears (7-9) @ Packers (8-8)
— Chicago won/covered five of last seven games.
— Four of those seven games were decided by 5 or less points.
— Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
— Bears are 2-5 SU in one-score games this season.
— Chicago is 2-8 SU when it scores less than 27 points
— Bears ran ball for 250-192 yards last two games.
— Fields is 10-27 as an NFL starter.
— TY, Bears are 3-4 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bears led their last two games 21-7 at halftime
— last three years, Bears are 16-34 SU/21-27-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 4-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Chicago is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Six of their nine games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Packers make the playoffs with a win here.
— Green Bay is 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS in its last seven games.
— Packers are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Green Bay outscored last six foes 105-45 in first half.
— Last five games, Packers are +6 in turnovers (9-3)
— Packers are 5-5 TY in one-score games.
— Last six games, Green Bay is 51-105 (48.6%) on third down.
— Packers are 9-5 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
— TY, Packers are 3-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jordan Love is 8-9 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS this year in games coming off a win.
— Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
— Last three weeks, Green Bay gave up only 87.3 rushing yards/game.
— Team total: over 8-7. Opponents’ team total: under 8-6-1

— Packers (+1) won 38-20 in Chicago in the season opener.
— Packers won last nine series games (8-1 ATS)
— Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— Road teams are 9-1 ATS in NFC North divisional games TY.

Seahawks (8-8) @ Cardinals (4-12)
— Seahawks make playoffs if they win, and Packers lose.
— Seattle is 2-4 SU last six games, with both wins in last minute.
— Seahawks are 5-4 in one-score games this season.
— Seahawks are 8-2 scoring 20+ points, 0-6 scoring less than 20.
— Seahawks were outscored 128-45 in second half of their losses.
— Last four games, opponents converted 27-52 third down plays.
— TY, Seattle is 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Seahawks are 3-5 SU in road games this season.
— Seahawks are 3-2 ATS last five games as a road favorite (1-0 TY).
— Smith is 29-36 as an NFL starter; Lock is 9-14.
— Seahawks are 6-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 2-8 if they don’t.
— Three of Seattle’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Seattle is 5-3 ATS in their last eight NFC West road games.
— Team total: under 10-6. Opponents’ team total: over 8-7-1

— Arizona is 3-10 SU/5-8 ATS in its last 13 games
— Cardinals scored TD’s on all four 2nd half drives last week.
— In 5 of last 6 games, Arizona gave up 21+ points in first half.
— Cardinals are 4-3 ATS as a home dog TY.
— Cardinals are 0-10 SU when they score less than 25 points.
— Last eight games, Arizona was outscored 135-66 in first half.
— Last four games, Cardinals converted 29-59 on third down.
— Cardinals lost 23 of last 29 games SU (12-14 ATS in last 26).
— Murray is 28-36-1 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games.
— Arizona is 2-4 ATS in last six games coming off a win.
— Team total: over 9-7. Opponents’ team total: over 9-6-1

— Seahawks (-8) beat Cardinals 20-10 at home in Week 7.
— Seattle won nine of last 12 series games.
— Seahawks covered three of last four visits to Arizona.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Home teams are 3-6-1 ATS in NFC West divisional games.

Broncos (8-8) @ Raiders (7-9)
— Denver benched QB Wilson for their last two games.
— Backup QB Stidham (1-2 as an NFL starter) gets nod here.
— Stidham was 20-32/224 in LW’s win against the Chargers.
— Broncos lost three of their last five games.
— Last two games, Denver didn’t allow a first half TD.
— Denver is 2-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— since 2018, Broncos are 18-15-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver is 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last two weeks, opponents converted only 5-24 on third down.
— Broncos are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Eight of last 11 Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Denver is 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 9-7. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Raiders are 4-4 SU/6-1-1 ATS since they changed coaches.
— Last three games, Las Vegas scored four defensive touchdowns.
— Raiders outscored last four opponents 62-21 in first half.
— Raiders didn’t scored offensive TD in two of last four games.
— Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games.
— Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Raiders are 4-2-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 11-5 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 13-18 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
— QB O’Connell is 4-5 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 12-4. Opponents’ team total: under 10-5-1

— Raiders (+3.5) won season opener 17-16 in Denver.
— Raiders won last eight series games.
— Broncos are 0-3 SU/ATS in three visits to Las Vegas.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Favorites are 6-4 ATS in AFC West divisional games.

Chiefs (10-6) @ Chargers (5-11)
— Mahomes is sitting this week; other starters will probably also rest.
— Chiefs have a home playoff game next week.
— Chiefs are 4-5 in their last nine games, after a 6-1 start.
— KC scored one offensive TD LW, gave up two defensive TD’s in Week 16 loss.
— Chiefs did kick six field goals last week.
— Chiefs haven’t had a plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last ten games, Chiefs are minus-11 in turnovers (5-16)
— Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog (0-0 TY).
— Chiefs held 12 of last 14 foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, KC converted 8-28 third down plays (28.6%)

— Under is 8-3-1 in their last thirteen games.
— Chiefs are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win (4-4 TY).
— backup QB Gabbert is 13-35 SU as an NFL starter.
— Gabbert’s last start was in 2018.
— Team total: under 12-4. Opponents’ team total: under 11-5
— Chargers lost seven of their last eight games.
— Chargers fired their coach/GM three weeks ago.
— Chargers are 0-6 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— QB Stick is 83-127/861 passing in his first three NFL starts.
— Chargers allowed 14 TD’s on opponents’ last 45 drives.
— Bolts are 2-6 SU at home this season.
— LA is 8-7-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Chargers have 11 takeaways (+8) in wins, six (minus-11) in losses.
— Opponents are 18-70 (25.7%) on 3rd down in LA wins, 65-146 (44.5%) in losses.
— Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Charger games.
— Chargers are 5-3 ATS in last eight AFC West home games.
— Team total: under 5-2 last seven. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Chargers (+5.5) lost 31-17 at Arrowhead in Week 7.
— Chiefs had 415 passing yards in that game.
— Kansas City won 16 of last 19 series games.
— Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in last ten road series games.
— Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings played in California.
— Favorites are 6-4 ATS in AFC West divisional games.

Bills (10-6) @ Dolphins (11-5)
— Buffalo is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS since its bye week.
— Buffalo scored 28 ppg in six games since firing their OC.
— Bills are 8-0 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last six games, Buffalo has a +6 turnover ratio (12-6).
— Last seven games, Bills ran ball for 158.7 yards/game.
— Bills are 1-3 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Buffalo outscored last six foes 102-47 in first half.
— Josh Allen is 57-35 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 13-15-2 ATS in last 30 games after a win.
— Buffalo’s last two wins were by a total of eight points.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in last five AFC East road games.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 8-7-1

— Dolphins won five of their last seven games SU.
— Miami is 1-4 SU vs teams that currently have winning record.
— Favorites are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games.
— Miami scored 30+ points in eight of 11 wins; 20-17-14-27-19 in losses.
— Last four games, Miami is +5 in turnovers (9-4).
— Dolphins averaged 7+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games.
— Last 5 games, Miami converted 40-85 third down plays (47.1%).
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-12 ATS as an underdog (0-4 TY).
— This year, Miami is 3-0 ATS coming off a loss.
— over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Tagovailoa is 32-18 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 8-8. Opponents’ team total: under 9-7

— Winner of this game wins AFC East.
— Buffalo (-2.5) whacked Miami 48-20 at home in Week 4.
— Buffalo won nine of last ten series games.
— Bills are 5-4-1 ATS in last ten visits to Miami.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in AFC East divisional games.

Cnotes53 · Jan 5, 2024

Friday’s 6-pack:
— Steelers (-3.5) @ Baltimore- Steelers need a win, Ravens do not.
— Texans (-1.5) @ Indianapolis- Both teams need this win, and some help.
— Jets @ New England (-1.5)- Could this be Belichick’s swan song in Foxboro?
— Jaguars (-3.5) @ Tennessee- Jacksonville needs a win to take the AFC South.
— Eagles (-4.5) @ Giants- Eagles need a win and a Washington upset for the #2 seed.
— Bills (-2.5) @ Miami- Winner takes the AFC East crown.

Quote of the Day
“The receivers that got picked, they’re great players, but I was hot. I guess I didn’t do enough during the season, so I’ve got to go harder.”
Detroit WR Amon-Ra St Brown, who was bypassed for a spot in the Pro Bowl

Friday’s quiz
Who was coach of the LA Rams, before Sean McVay?

Thursday’s quiz
Baltimore’s Justin Tucker kicked the longest field goal in NFL history, a 67-yarder that was a game-winner against the Lions in 2021.

Wednesday’s quiz
Dolphins’ QB Bob Griese won a Super Bowl against Minnesota, when he was 6-7 passing for the whole game, in a 24-3 Miami win. Miami ran ball 53 times for 196 yards, had only 73 passing yards.

****************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

— Week 18 in the NFL has some unusual QB matchups; there are at least five games where both QB’s starting this week are backups:
Steelers (Rudolph) @ Ravens (Hundley)
Browns (Driskel) @ Bengals (Browning)
Chiefs (Gabbert) @ Chargers (Stick)
Rams (Wentz) @ 49ers (Darnold)
Broncos (Stidham) @ Raiders (O’Connell)
Jeff Driskel will be the fifth quarterback to start a game for Cleveland this season.

— Jets cut RB Dalvin Cook, who went unclaimed on waivers; he then signed with the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve had injury issues in their backfield recently.
Cook carried the ball only 67 times for 214 yards for the Jets this season, after the Jets gave him a one-year, $7M contract in August.

— Tough time of year for football coaches whose teams didn’t win this year:
LSU fired four defensive assistant coaches.
Oklahoma fired its defensive coordinator.
North Carolina fired its offensive coordinator.

— It was reported couple weeks ago that Kansas State QB Will Howard was bolting from K-State to USC, but turns out he is going to Ohio State instead.

— Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman was given a 7th year of eligibility by the NCAA; Bowman played three years at Texas Tech, two at Michigan, before playing for the Cowboys this past season. Bowman passed for 402 yards in OSU’s bowl win over Texas A&M.

— Atlanta Braves signed recently-acquired P Chris Sale to a 2-year, $38M contract; Sale was 6-5, 4.30 in 20 starts for Boston LY, which followed three injury-plagued seasons.

— Mets signed OF Harrison Bader, giving him $10.5M for one year; Bader hit .232 last year, splitting time between Bronx and Cincinnati.

— Movie of the Day: Solitary Man (2009)- A prolific car dealer watches his personal and professional life hit the skids because of his business and romantic indiscretions.
Tremendous cast: Michael Douglas, Susan Sarandon, Danny DeVito, Mary-Louise Parker, Richard Schiff, Jenna Fischer, Bruce Altman.
The movie was written by the two guys who wrote the Showtime series Billions, which was an excellent show. This movie isn’t always pleasant, but it is interesting.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: In 2023, free agent P Blake Snell was the first pitcher since 1913 to lead the major leagues in both ERA and walks allowed.

— Oregon 76, Washington 74
Huskies were only 12-22 on the foul line, at home.

— Memphis 78, Tulsa 75
Memphis led by 14 at the half, needed a 3-pointer with 0:02 left for the win.
Penny Hardaway’s team is 12-2 against schedule #28; they’re #44 in experience, #343 in continuity, so they figure to improve as they play together more.

— Oakland 100, Milwaukee 95
Lot of whistles: Oakland was 30-39 on foul line, Milwaukee 26-35
Jack Gohlke is a senior G for Oakland; so far this year, he’s taken 167 shots- 52-162 on 3-point shots, 3-5 on 2-point shots.

— Cal-San Diego 79, Cal-Santa Barbara 72
Gauchos were expected to win the Big West, but they’re off to an 0-3 start in BW play.
When you shoot 10-17 on the arc at home and still lose, that isn’t good.

— Minnesota 73, Michigan 71
Michigan has lost three in row, eight of last eleven games.
Wolverines outscored Minnesota 17-5 on the foul line, still lost.

— James Madison 68, Louisiana 61
14-0 Dukes survived 19 turnovers and 5-22 shooting on the arc.
JMU started the season with OT wins at Michigan State, Kent State, but overall, they’ve played schedule #314 this season.

— There was an unusual scene they showed during the Colorado-Arizona game on ESPN; during the day, movie star Adam Sandler was playing in a half-court pickup game with the Arizona student managers. Sandler is a pretty good ballplayer for a guy in his late 50’s.

Cnotes53 · Jan 6, 2024

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Most 3-point shots made, amongst active NBA players:
4,159— Steph Curry
3,232— James Harden
2,819— Klay Thompson
2,791— LeBron James
2,688— Damian Lillard
2,371— Paul George

Quote of the Day
“I think it comes down to, for us, how they (Pacers) got our number, there’s certain teams that just [have] your number. We’re still trying to figure that out because I know we’re gonna play them in the playoffs and, boy, it’s not gonna be pretty. It’s not gonna be pretty for them.”
Milwaukee Bucks’ Malik Beasley; the Pacers are 4-1 vs Milwaukee this season

Saturday’s quiz
Who has scored the most overtime goals in NHL history?

Friday’s quiz
Jeff Fisher was coach of the LA Rams, just before Sean McVay.

Thursday’s quiz
Baltimore’s Justin Tucker kicked the longest field goal in NFL history, a 67-yarder that was a game-winner against the Lions in 2021.

**********************************************

Saturday’s 1st Den: Random stuff on a winter night……..

— From 2018-23, Gonzaga posted a 223-24 record, making the Sweet 16 in the last six NCAA Tournaments. Last time Gonzaga didn’t made the second weekend of the tournament? 2014.
But this year, Gonzaga is off to a 10-4 start, 4-3 vs top 100 teams, 0-3 vs top 50 clubs. Their bench is in the bottom 10 in the country in minutes played; they can’t afford any injuries.
The entire WCC is down this year, starting with BYU bolting to the Big X. So far this season, the WCC is:
0-6 SU vs the WAC, 0-6 ATS
6-18 SU vs Mountain West, 8-16 ATS.
4-10 SU vs Big West, 4-10 ATS
7-6 SU vs Pac-12, 6-7 ATS
St Mary’s was picked to win the WCC this year, but they’re 10-6, 2-5 against top 100 teams. There is no guarantee the WCC will get two teams in the NCAAs.

— SEC teams are 18-12 SU against the ACC this season, 19-11 ATS.

— UConn 88, Butler 81
Butler led by 7 early in the second half.
UConn shot 69% inside the arc.
Huskies had a 33-24 edge on the boards.

— Fairfield 93, Siena 69
Brycen Goodine scored 40 points, made 8-12 on the arc.
Here’s the thing; Goodine didn’t start the game, still scored 40 points.
Siena is 2-12; they played one junior and no seniors.

— New Mexico lost 76-68 at Colorado State Tuesday; Lobos’ star Jaelen House played only 19:00 because of foul trouble. When House and Jamal Mashburn were on the court at the same time, Lobos were +13; they were minus-21 when one/both guys were on the bench.

— ESPN’s Seth Greenberg said he thinks Wake Forest has the best starting 5 in the ACC; so far this season, Demon Deacons are 10-3, winning their last eight games- four of those wins were against top 100 teams.
Wake Forest’s bench ranks #323 in country in minutes played, something to remember when the ACC Tournament rolls around. Wake Forest is good, but not deep.

— Word of the Day: Opportunity- a set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: Rockies C Elias Diaz won MVP of the All-Star Game last year; he was first National Leaguer to win that award since Melky Cabrera won it in 2012, as a member of the Giants.

— Seattle Mariners traded P Robbie Ray to the Giants, for OF Mitch Haniger, P Anthony DeSclafani. Unusual trade; all three players are over 30 years old.
Ray won the 2021 Cy Young while pitching for Toronto, then signed a 5-year deal with Seattle for $23M a year- he is under contract through the 2026 season and is owed $73M over that time. Ray had Tommy John surgery last year, is expected back in the second half of 2024.
Haniger previously played five years with Seattle; he hit 39 homers for the Mariners in 2021, but played total of only 118 games the last two years, hitting .209 for the Giants last year.
DeSclafani was 4-8, 4.88 in 18 starts for the Giants last year; he is 54-56 in his career.

— OF Michael Brantley retired Friday, ending a 15-year career; he hit .298 in his career, with a .794 OPS. He made five All-Star games, helped the Astros win the 2022 World Series.

— Los Angeles Lakers won the first-ever In-Season Tournament, beating the Pacers 123-109 on December 9th; since then, the Lakers are 3-9 and are hanging onto the last playoff spot in the West by a half-game.
Indiana went 2-6 in their first eight games after that loss to the Lakers, but now they’ve won five games in a row, are 19-14, the #5-seed in the East.

— Over/under total for Pacers-Hawks Friday was 262 points, the highest total for any NBA game in the last thirty years- Indiana has been involved with the three highest totals in the last thirty years.

— Former Cowboys’ tight end Jason Witten is now a high school coach in Texas; he coaches at Liberty Christian HS in Argyle, TX. Witten’s team won the state title this season, winning all their games by 28+ points- the last two years, Liberty Christian is 24-2.

— Baltimore Ravens are 13-3 this season; they’ve had the lead in the last 2:00 of all 16 games.

Udog · Jan 6, 2024

NFL
Weather Report

Week 18

Cnotes53 · Jan 6, 2024

SATURDAY, JANUARY 6

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
PIT at BAL	04:30 PM	BAL +3.0 O 35.0	+500 +500
HOU at IND	08:15 PM	HOU -1.0 O 47.0	+500 +500

Cnotes53 · Jan 7, 2024

NFL BEST BETS WEEK 18 THRU THE SUPERBOWL!

01/06/2024................................. 1 - 2...........................33.33%......................- 6.00

Cnotes53 · Jan 7, 2024

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Most foul shots made, amongst active NBA players:
8,227— Lebron James (73.5%)
7,484— James Harden (86%)
6,826— Kevin Durant (88.5%)
5,856— DeMar DeRozan (84%)
5,768— Russell Westbrook (77.6%)
4,764— Chris Paul (87%)

Quote of the Day
“Why would you want to dance with somebody who doesn’t want to dance with you?”

Adam Sandler, The Wedding Singer
Sunday’s quiz
Who was the Houston Texans’ QB, the last time they played in a playoff game, in 2019?

Saturday’s quiz
Alex Ovechkin (26) has scored the most overtime goals in NHL history.

Friday’s quiz
Jeff Fisher was coach of the LA Rams, just before Sean McVay.

******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday……..

— Steelers 17, Ravens 10
Game was 7-7 after three quarters, on a cruddy, rainy day.
Rudolph threw a 71-yard TD pass on first play of 4th quarter.
Rudolph is now 8-4-1 as an NFL starter.
Pittsburgh finishes 10-7; they need help to make the playoffs.
Steelers won seven of last eight series games.
Total yardage: Steelers 289, Ravens 224
Backup QB Huntley was 15-28/146 passing in his 9th (3-6) NFL start
Ravens are the #1-seed in the AFC; they have next week off.

— Texans 23, Colts 19
Houston makes the playoffs, with a rookie QB/rookie head coach.
WR Collins caught nine passes for 195 yards and a TD.
Last seven games, Texans are +7 in turnovers (10-3).
Texans are 8-1 ATS in last nine AFC South road games.
Colts converted only once on 11 third down plays.
Indy ran ball for 227 yards, but threw ball on decisive 4th-and-short play.
Favorites covered nine of Colts’ last ten games.
Colts are 13-15 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less.

— Troy Aikman came up with a great nugget during this game; apparently Brett Favre was a high school coach in Mississippi after his playing days were done. His team won a state title in his second year on the job, with their only loss that season against a team whose QB was Gardner Minshew.

— SEC
Kentucky 87, Florida 85- Gators led by 5 with 6:34 left to play.
Alabama 78, Vanderbilt 75- Bama led by 18 midway thru first half.
Tennessee 90, Ole Miss 64- First loss for Rebels, who played schedule #235

— Big X
Kansas 83, TCU 81- Jayhawks survived being minus-9 (18-9) in turnovers.
Baylor 75, Oklahoma State 70, OT- Teams combined to shoot 6-35 on the arc.
Cincinnati 71, BYU 60- Teams are in same league, despite being 1,670 miles apart.

— Big East
Seton Hall 78, Marquette 75- Kolek scored only 5 points (1-6 from floor)
St John’s 81, Villanova 71- Pitino’s Red Storm is 11-4, vs schedule #33.
Creighton 79, Providence 70- Friars’ F Hopkins is out for the year, big loss.

— ACC
North Carolina 65, Clemson 55- Tigers shot 1-18 on the arc, at home.
Wake Forest 86, Miami 82 OT- Eight players in this game played 38:00+.
Boston College 95, Georgia Tech 87- Tech led by 16 early in second half.

— Upsets of the Day:
LSU (+11.5) 68, Texas A&M 53
George Washington (+11.5) 84, VCU 82
Eastern Michigan (+10.5) 71, Kent State 69 OT
Cincinnati (+9.5) 71, BYU 60
Charlotte (+8.5) 70, FAU 68
Texas-San Antonio (+8.5) 89, Rice 82 OT
Eastern Illinois (+8.5) 90, Little Rock 88
Southern Miss (+7.5) 81, James Madison 71

— Baseball Fact of the Day: Francisco Rodríguez holds the record for most saves in one season; he saved 62 games for the 2008 Angels.

— There were 24 college basketball games Saturday, where the team that won trailed by 10+ points in that game.

— Pac-12
Cal 66, UCLA 57- Bruins are in freefall, losing nine of last 11 D-I games.
Arizona State 76, Colorado 73- ASU is 4-0 in Pac-12; they were 6-5 in pre-conference games.
Oregon 89, Washington State 84- Ducks made 14-24 shots on the arc.

— WCC
Saint Mary’s 68, LMU 64- Gaels won 8 of last 9 games, after a 3-5 start.
Santa Clara 78, Pepperdine 72- Junior F Bal had 28 points, one assist- his job is to shoot.

— Sun Belt
Southern Miss 81, James Madison 71- First loss of the season for the Dukes.
Troy 66, Appalachian State 62- Troy in 3-0 in Sun Belt, after a 6-6 pre-conference mark.
Marshall 79, Texas State 75- Bobcats led by 11 points early in second half.

— Big Sky went 6-3 against the Summit League Saturday; they win the two-night challenge between the two leagues, 11-7.

— Mountain West
Utah State 77, Colorado State 72- Aggies were 20-23 on foul line, Colorado State 4-11.
Nevada 72, Fresno State 57- Wolf Pack is 14-1; they’re #6 experience team in country.
San Diego State 72, UNLV 61- Aztecs led 25-9 early, coasted home from there.

Udog · Jan 7, 2024

NFL
Weather Report

Week 18

Cnotes53 · Jan 7, 2024

SUNDAY, JANUARY 7

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
ATL at NO	01:00 PM	NO -3.0 O 42.0	+500 +500
MIN at DET	01:00 PM	DET -4.0 O 47.5	+500 +500
NYJ at NE	01:00 PM	NE -2.0 U 29.5	+500 +500
TB at CAR	01:00 PM	TB -4.5 U 37.0	+500 +500
JAC at TEN	01:00 PM	TEN +3.5 U 41.0	+500 +500
CLE at CIN	01:00 PM	CLE +7.5 U 37.0	+500 +500
CHI at GB	04:25 PM	CHI +3.0 O 46.0	+500 +500
SEA at ARI	04:25 PM	SEA -3.0 O 47.5	+500 +500
LAR at SF	04:25 PM	SF -4.0 U 40.5	+500 +500
PHI at NYG	04:25 PM	NYG +5.5 O 43.0	+500 +500
DAL at WAS	04:25 PM	WAS +13.5 U 47.0	+500 +500
DEN at LV	04:25 PM	LV -3.0	+500
KC at LAC	04:25 PM	KC +3.0 U 35.5	+500 +500
BUF at MIA	08:20 PM	BUF -3.0 O 48.0	+500 +500

Cnotes53 · Jan 8, 2024

NFL BEST BETS WEEK 18 THRU THE SUPERBOWL!

01/07/2024................................8 - 11...........................42.10%......................- 20.50
01/06/2024................................. 1 - 2...........................33.33%......................- 6.00

TOTALS......................................9 - 13,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,40.90%......................- 26.50

********************************************************************************

Cnotes53 · Jan 8, 2024

Monday’s 6-pack:
Next weekend’s NFL playoff games:
Saturday 4:30- Browns @ Houston
Saturday 8:15- Dolphins @ Kansas City
Sunday 1:00- Steelers @ Buffalo
Sunday 4:30- Packers @ Dallas
Sunday 8:15- Rams @ Detroit
Monday 8:15- Eagles @ Tampa Bay

Quote of the Day
“They can do whatever they want; there’s no rules against it. We didn’t stop them in the second half. They can do whatever they want. It is what it is. Hats off to them. They kicked our you-know-what in the second half, made us pay, took advantage of turnovers.
That’s their prerogative. It’s also my prerogative to tell him how I feel. Whether people like that or not, oh well. Like I said, credit to them, they do whatever they want.”
Falcons’ coach Arthur Smith, annoyed by Saints TD with 1:10 left, when score was 41-17

Monday’s quiz
Where did QB Carson Wentz play his college football?

Sunday’s quiz
Deshaun Watson was the Houston Texans’ QB, the last time they played in a playoff game, in 2019.

Saturday’s quiz
Alex Ovechkin (26) has scored the most overtime goals in NHL history.

**********************************************

Monday’s Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Buccaneers 9, Panthers 0
Tampa Bay clinched NFC South win a win here.
Buccaneers won five of their last six games.
Bucs are 7-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
Tampa Bay will host the Eagles in the playoffs next week.
Panthers are 1st team to be shut out in consecutive games since ‘08 Browns.
Carolina never led a game in 4th quarter TY; both wins were on walk-off FG’s.
Carolina lost nine of its last ten games (3-3 ATS last six).
Panthers didn’t score a TD in four of their last five games.

Bills 21, Dolphins 14
Bills win AFC East; they host the Steelers next week.
Harty tied game 14-14 with a 96-yard punt return TD.
Bills outgained Miami, 473-275.
Buffalo is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS since its bye week.
Dolphins in first half: 31 plays, 225 yards; they led 14-7.
Dolphins in 2nd half: 17 plays, 47 yards, 4 punts and an INT
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13 ATS as an underdog (0-5 TY).
Next week, Dolphins visit Kansas City Saturday night.

Titans 28, Jaguars 20
Loss knocks Jacksonville out of the playoffs.
Jaguars lost five of their last six games.
Last five weeks, Jaguars were outscored 65-29 in first half.
Jaguars were 8-14 on third down, Titans 6-11.
Tennessee scored TD’s on three of its first four drives.
Titans ran ball for 175 yards; Henry ran for 153 yards and a TD.
Tennessee is 14-7 ATS last 21 games as home dogs (4-2 TY)
Titans are 5-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-10 scoring 17 or less.

Saints 48, Falcons 17
Falcons’ first two drives: nine plays, 169 yards, two TD’s.
Falcons rest of game: 51 plays, 220 yards, 3 points.
Falcons are 3-11-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Saints scored TD with 1:10 left; Falcons WERE NOT HAPPY about it.
This game was 17-17 at halftime.
Saints were eliminated from playoffs when Green Bay won its game.
Carr was 22-28/264 passing with four TD’s.
Saints won nine of last 12 games against Atlanta.

Bengals 31, Browns 14
Bengals led 24-0 at halftime.
Browns in first half: 25 plays, 71 yards, 2 turnovers, no points.
Driskel was 5th QB to start a game for Cleveland TY.
Browns visit Houston in the playoffs next week.
Bengals’ first four drives: 24 plays, 224 yards, 21 points.
Mixon ran ball 14 times for 11 yards and a TD.
Cincinnati is 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games as home favorites (4-3-1 TY).
Bengals are 7-2 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 allowing more than 2o.

Jets 17, Patriots 3
Jets end a 15-game losing streak vs New England.
Total yardage: Jets 254, New England 119
Teams combined to convert 4 of 29 third down plays.
Jets went 3-2 in their last five games this season.
NE is 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or less.
Patriots were 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
New England was minus-12 in turnovers this year (+38 from 2019-22).
In his career, Belichick is 84-103 without Brady.

Lions 30, Vikings 20
Detroit scored TD’s on two of first three drives.
Last four games, Detroit is +6 in turnovers (9-3)
St Brown caught seven passes for 144 yards and a TD.
Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.
Vikings lost six of last seven games (the win was 3-0).
Mullens was 30-44/396 passing, but threw INTs on last two drives.
Jefferson caught 12 passes for 192 yards and a TD.
Vikings were 1-7 when they allowed 27+ points.

Cowboys 38, Commanders 10
Dallas wins division, hosts Green Bay in playoffs next week.
Cowboys scored five TD’s on only nine drives.
Prescott was 31-36/279 passing, with four TD’s.
Dallas is 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a road favorite (4-1 TY)
Cowboys outgained Washington, 440-180.
Dallas was 6-10 on 3rd down, Commanders 2-10
Washington lost eight in row, 13 of last 15 games (3-8 ATS last 11)
Washington was 1-12 this year giving up more than 17 points.

Rams 21, 49ers 20
Rams converted 9 of 15 third down plays.
Rams are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS last eight games
Rams are 9-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
Rams visit Detroit (Stafford’s old team) in next week’s playoffs.
49ers led 20-7 at halftime.
49ers in second half: 16 plays, 26 yards, 3 punts and a lost fumble.
SF is 0-5 this year when they score less than 27 points.
49ers are still the #1 seed in NFC, have next week off.

Giants 27, Eagles 10
Giants led Philly 24-0 at halftime.
Eagles turned ball over three times in the first half.
Eagles went 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in their last six games.
Eagles visit Tampa Bay in next weekend’s playoffs.
Giants outgained Philly 415-299.
Taylor was 23-32/297 passing, with a TD pass.
Last two weeks, Giants gained 389/415 yards, an improvement.
Last 13 games, Giants were +19 in turnovers.

Packers 17, Bears 9
Packers outgained Chicago, 432-192.
Green Bay was 7-10 on third down, Bears 3-10.
Packers are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in its last eight games.
Green Bay visits Dallas and its old coach (McCarthy) next week.
Bears were in Green Bay territory on every drive, scored only 9 points.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five visits to Lambeau.
Bears were 2-5 SU in one-score games this season.
Fields is 10-28 as an NFL starter.

Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20
Trailing 20-13, Lockett caught a 34-yard TD pass with 1:54 left.
Lockett also scored 2-point conversion for the deciding points.
Arizona missed a 51-yard FG on last play of the game.
Cardinals outgained Seattle, 466-327.
Seattle was eliminated when Green Bay won its game.
Seahawks were 9-2 scoring 20+ points, 0-6 scoring less than 20.
Seahawks were 6-4 in one-score games this season.
Cardinals were 0-11 TY when they scored less than 25 points.

Raiders 27, Broncos 14
Denver scored 16-14 points in splitting backup QB Stidham’s starts.
Broncos lost four of their last six games.
Denver was 2-5 ATS as a road underdog this season.
Broncos are 7-16 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Raiders led 17-7 at halftime.
Raiders went 5-4 SU/7-1-1 ATS after they changed coaches.
Las Vegas was 5-2-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less.
Raiders won their last nine games against Denver.

Chiefs 13, Chargers 12
Only TD of the game was 97-yard fumble return by the Chiefs.
Chargers outgained KC 353-268, but obviously Mahomes didn’t play.
Chiefs split their last ten games, after a 6-2 start.
Last two games, Kansas City scored one TD on offense, kicked eight FG’s.
Chargers were on KC’s 5-yard line on first drive, fumbled for defensive TD.
Rest of game, Chargers kicked four FG”s, didn’t score a TD.
Chargers lost eight of their last nine games.
Bolts were 0-7 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.

Cnotes53 · Jan 9, 2024

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
First six picks in 2024 NFL Draft:
1- Bears
2- Commanders
3- Patriots
4- Cardinals
5- Chargers
6- Giants

Quote of the Day
“The gap between achieving and underachieving was much bigger than what I anticipated this year, in a variety of ways.”
Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank, after firing their coach Monday

Tuesday’s quiz
What AFL/AFC team was the first one to win a Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
Carson Wentz played his college football at North Dakota State.

Sunday’s quiz
Deshaun Watson was the Houston Texans’ QB, the last time they played in a playoff game, in 2019.

*******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: NBA trends (thru Sunday)

NBA trends (thru Sunday)
Hawks (14-21):
— lost six of last eight games SU (1-7 ATS)
— 1-10 ATS as a home favorite
— over 11-3 at home
— 1-5 ATS if they played night before.

Celtics (28-8):
— won 12 of last 14 games SU (6-3 ATS last nine)
— 7-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— over 5-2 last seven road games.

Nets (16-21):
— lost six of their last seven games.
— 8-2 ATS as home favorite.
— 0-7 ATS last seven road games.
— 2-4 ATS if they played night before.

Hornets (8-26):
— lost 12 of their last 13 games SU (6-7 ATS).
— 2-10 ATS last 13 games as road underdog.
— under 7-3 last ten games.

Bulls (17-21)
— 7-5 SU in their last 12 games (8-4 ATS).
— 5-2 ATS last seven as a home favorite.
— under 8-0 last eight games.

Cavaliers (21-15):
— split their last eight games SU.
— 6-3 ATS last nine home games.
— under 6-2 last eight road games.

Mavericks (22-15):
— won/covered four of their last five games.
— 6-2 ATS as road favorites.
— under 5-2 last seven home games.
— 5-2 ATS if they played night before.

Nuggets (26-12):
— won 9 of last 11 games SU (6-5 ATS)
— 5-10 ATS as a road favorite
— under 7-3 last 10 home games.
— 2-7 ATS if they played night before.

Pistons (3-33):
— 5-2 ATS in last seven games.
— 6-8 ATS as a home underdog, 9-11 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games
— 1-5 ATS on first night of a back/back.

Warriors (17-19):
— lost five of last seven games SU
— 4-13 ATS as a home favorite
— 7-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 4-1 last five games

Rockets (18-16):
— won three of last four games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 4-1 last five road games.
— 4-1 ATS if they played night before.

Pacers (21-15):
— won/covered six of last seven games.
— under 6-0 last six road games
— 5-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— 1-5 ATS if they played night before.

Clippers (22-13):
— 14-3 SU in last 17 games (10-4 ATS in last 14)
— 1-6 ATS as an underdog.
— under 5-1 last six games.

Lakers (18-19):
— 4-10 SU since they won the in-season tournament.
— 9-17 ATS as a favorite.
— over 9-2 last eleven road games.
— 1-7 ATS if they played night before.

Grizzlies (13-23):
— 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS since Morant came back; now he’s OFY.
— 5-11 ATS at home.
— over 5-1 last six road games

Heat (20-15):
— lost three of last four games SU.
— 5-10 ATS at home.
— under 6-1 last seven games.

Bucks (25-11):
— lost three of last four games SU (0-4 ATS)
— 6-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
— under 4-1 last five games.

Timberwolves (25-10)
— 3-4 in last seven games SU (1-5 ATS last six)
— 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 3-1 last four home games.

Pelicans (22-15):
— won/covered three of last four games
— 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
— under 5-1 last six games.

Knicks (21-15):
— won/covered their last four games
— 11-4 ATS as a favorite, 7-9 as a road underdog
— under 5-1 last six games
— 2-5 ATS if they played night before.

Thunder (24-11):
— lost last two games, after a 7-1 run.
— 11-3 ATS as a home favorite, 7-2 as a road dog.
— over 9-2 last eleven home games
— 3-1 ATS if they played night before.

Magic (21-15):
— 6-4 SU/8-2 ATS last ten games
— 12-4 ATS at home, 5-0 as a home dog.
— over 3-1 last four games.

76ers (23-12):
— 1-3 last four games SU.
— 18-7 ATS as a favorite, 4-5 as an underdog.
— under 5-1 last six games.
— 2-6 ATS if they played night before.

Suns (19-17):
— won five of last seven games SU.
— 9-18 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five road games

Trailblazers (10-25):
— 2-4 SU/ATS in last six games.
— 6-10 ATS at home
— over 5-3 last eight games
— 5-1 ATS if they played night before.

Kings (21-14):
— won four of last six games SU.
— 8-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— 0-5 ATS if they played night before.

Spurs (5-30):
— last last five games SU, are 4-2 ATS in last six
— 6-10 ATS as a home underdog, 8-10 as a road dog.
— under 5-1 last six games.
— 0-3 ATS if they played night before.

Raptors (15-21):
— 4-3 SU/5-2 ATS last seven games.
— 9-7 ATS as a favorite.
— over 5-1 last six games.
— 2-4 ATS if they played night before.

Jazz (18-20):
— won/covered seven of last nine games.
— 12-4 ATS at home
— 6-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 5-1 last six games

Wizards (6-30):
— 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS last eight games
— 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 7-3 last ten games.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.
So far this season, it has happened 24 times, so 48 games; underdogs are 29-19 ATS in those games, over 28-20 (13-11 first night, 15-9 second night)

Udog · Jan 9, 2024

WILD CARD ROUND

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

NFL

Wild Card Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Cleveland @ Houston
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland

Miami @ Kansas City
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 16 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

Green Bay @ Dallas
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

LA Rams @ Detroit
LA Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Cnotes53 · Jan 10, 2024

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Spreads for this week’s playoff games:
— Browns (-2.5, 44.5) @ Houston
— Dolphins @ Kansas City (-4, 44.5)
— Steelers @ Buffalo (-10, 36)
— Packers @ Dallas (-7.5, 50.5)
— Rams @ Detroit (-3, 51.5)
— Eagles (-3, 43.5) @ Tampa Bay

Quote of the Day
“I hear I had a good year. It’s the worst year of my life, though. That’s the reality of it. What happened this season can’t happen again.”
Jets’ WR Garrett Wilson

Wednesday’s quiz
Which Division I college basketball team is known as the Camels?

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets were the first AFL/AFC team to win a Super Bowl; they upset the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.

Monday’s quiz
Carson Wentz played his college football at North Dakota State.

*****************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Nebraska 88, Purdue 72
Cornhuskers made 14 of 23 shots on the arc.
Purdue took 33 3’s, only 24 2-point shots.

— Iowa State 57, Houston 53
Cyclones jumped out to a 14-0 lead, held on for dear life.
Houston was last unbeaten team in the country.

— Kentucky 90, Missouri 77
56 of Kentucky’s 90 points were scored by freshmen.
Senior big guy Mitchell had 20 points, 12 boards, played all 40:00.

— Western Michigan 95, Northern Illinois 90, OT
Broncos trailed by 17 in first half, by 9 with 4:16 left.
WMU was 25-47 on foul line, Northern Illinois was 18-24.

— Texas 74, Cincinnati 73
Texas outscored Cincinnati 4-0 over the last 0:59.
Bearcats were only 8-15 on the foul line.

— Auburn 66, Texas A&M 55
Auburn has won eight in a row, is now 13-2.
Teams combined to shoot 8-41 on the arc.

— This is Sub-Plot Weekend in the NFL playoffs:
Browns @ Houston- Deshaun Watson should be the TV analyst.
Dolphins @ Kansas City- Tyreek Hill against his old team.
Steelers @ Buffalo- The two head coaches were college roommates.
Packers @ Dallas- Mike McCarthy against his old team.
Rams @ Detroit- Stafford/Goff were traded for each other.
Eagles @ Bucs- Mayfield was Oklahoma’s QB in 2017, Hurts in 2019.

— Last six years, the #6-seeds are 9-3 SU in this round against #3-seeds, 6-0 in the NFC.
Last four years, home teams are 5-3 ATS in the #4-5 seed matchups.
Since 2012, #5-seeds who were road favorites at the #4-seeds are 5-2 ATS.

— LA Rams were the only NFL team this season that didn’t score a touchdown on defense or special teams.

— Only nine NFL quarterbacks started all 17 games for their team this season.

— Michigan 34, Washington 13
Wolverines win their first national title since 1997.
Michigan’s first three drives: 17 plays, 235 yards, 17 points.
Michigan ran for 303 yards, 174 in the first quarter.
Teams combined to convert 3 of 24 third down plays.

— Nike told Eldrick Woods to take a hike, after a 27-year partnership that had been paying Woods $20M a year.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: Bob Welch is the last major league pitcher to win 27+ games in a season; he went 27-6 for the 1990 A’s, who won the American League title.

— A quirk in Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers, which has a ton of deferred money in it: should Ohtani move out of California after his contract is up in 2033 with the vast majority of payouts still to come, the tax hit for the state of California would amount to $98M.

— Word of the Day: Compete- strive to gain or win something by defeating or establishing superiority over others who are trying to do the same.
Competitions are the moments and events in your life that help you improvise so that you can put forward the best version of yourself.

— NFL coaching news:
Washington Commanders fired Ron Rivera
Atlanta Falcons fired Arthur Smith
Tennessee Titans fired Mike Vrabel.
New Jersey Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale “resigned”; the team fired two of his assistants, which prompted him to “resign”.

— Illinois basketball player Luke Goode is the nephew of former NFL QB Trent Green.

— UNLV QB Jayden Maiava transferred to Georgia; he’ll probably sit next year behind Carson Beck, then take over in 2025. As a freshman this year, Maiava led UNLV to a 9-5 record and its first bowl game in ten years.

— LSU hired defensive coordinator Blake Baker away from Missouri; he is going to make $2.5M a year, boatload of $$$ for an assistant coach.

— Learned this week that billboards are prohibited in Hawai’i.

— Baseball stuff:
Mets signed P Sean Manaea to a 2-year, $28M contract.
Dodgers signed OF Teoscar Hernandez for one year, $23.5M.
Cubs signed P Shota Imanaga, who pitched 8 years in Japan.

Cnotes53 · Jan 11, 2024

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Top six rated college basketball conferences:
1) Big X
2) Big East
3) SEC
4) Big 14
5) ACC
6) Pac-12

Quote of the Day
“It’s outrageous. What happened tonight, this is completely B.S.. This is shame. Shame for the referees. Shame for the league to allow this. Twenty-three free throws for them, and we get two free throws in the fourth quarter? Like, how to play the game? I understand respect for All-Stars and all that, but we have star players on our team as well.”
Toronto Raptors’ coach Darko Rajakovic

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the coach of the Seahawks, before Pete Carroll?

Wednesday’s quiz
Campbell’s basketball team is known as the Camels; they play in the CAA.

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets were the first AFL/AFC team to win a Super Bowl; they upset the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.

***************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

Before we get into a busy news day, I’d like to thank the Big Dawg for picking NFL games on my blog this year; he went 30-23-1 (56.6%) against the spread. 17-5 over the last seven weeks!!! Lot of professional handicappers don’t do that well.
He’s had a winning season on this site in every year but one, and that ain’t easy to do.

— Seahawks fired Pete Carroll as head coach Wednesday; they tried to be nice about it, but Carroll had made it clear that he still wanted to be the coach. They say he’ll still be around as an advisor, but the guy went 147-98-1 with the Seahawks, 10-9 in playoff games, 1-1 in Super Bowls, and this is how they treat him?
Fact of the matter is, the last three years, Seattle went 25-26 in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs, and that wasn’t good enough. It ain’t easy being 72 years old in today’s world.

— Speaking of which, Nick Saban is out at Alabama, after 17 seasons; he went 206-29 with the Crimson Tide, 16-7 in bowl games.
Overall, Saban was 297-71-1 as a college coach with seven national titles (he won one at LSU); he also went 15-17 coaching the NFL’s Dolphins in 2005-06.
Good luck to the poor bastard that Alabama hires next; following the guy who might be the best college football coach ever is no easy task.

— Ever hear of Gene Bartow? Damn good coach, the guy went 491-253 as a college basketball coach, but he made the mistake of following John Wooden at UCLA. Wooden was/is the best college hoop coach ever; Bartow went 51-10 in two years at UCLA, but it wasn’t enough for the spoiled fan base/administration, so Bartow left Westwood after those two seasons.
Ironically, Bartow then moved to Alabama, where UAB was starting a new basketball program, and Bartow ran that team for 17 years, going 350-193 coaching the Blazers.

— Oh by the way, in 1980, Ohio State hired Nick Saban to be its defensive backs coach; the guy he replaced?
Pete Carroll.

— In the NBA, LA Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, $152.4M contract; do the math, and over an 82-game season, Leonard will make $61,951 per game over the length of that contract.

— Toronto Raptors lost 132-131 to the Lakers Tuesday night in LA; the Lakers shot 28-36 on the foul line, Toronto 8-13. Lakers took 23 of those foul shots in the decisive 4th quarter.
After the game, Raptors’ coach Darko Rajakovic wasn’t happy; he went on a tirade, slapping a table for emphasis while he ripped the officials and the NBA. Losing isn’t fun.

— I mentioned Tuesday that UNLV QB Jayden Maiava transferred to Georgia, but he changed his mind and is now transferring to USC. College football has gotten crazy.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: Babe Ruth holds the record for most innings pitched in a World Series game; he threw a 14-inning complete game in a 2-1 win in the 1916 World Series, and he also knocked in one of the runs his team scored.

— Movie of the Day: Blue Chips (1994)- A college basketball coach chooses to break the rules in order to recruit the players he needs to stay competitive.
Nick Nolte is great as the coach of fictional Western U; Bob Cousy is the athletic director of the school, Penny Hardaway and Shaquille O’Neal are two of his players. JT Walsh plays a wealthy booster, Alfre Woodard plays Penny Hardaway’s mom. Excellent cast.
I mention the movie today because Wednesday night, FS1 had their mike in a St John’s huddle, with Rick Pitino coaching his team; it is almost exactly the same as a scene in Blue Chips, when Pitino’s team is coaching against Western U, and Pitino is instructing his players.
That was 30 years ago, and Pitino is still an awesome coach.

— Central Florida 65, Kansas 60
UCF posts the upset in its first-ever Big X home game.
Kansas led by 16 in first half, 37-29 at halftime.

— St John’s 75, Providence 73
St John’s is 4-0 in Big East for first time since 2001.
Friars lost last three games, after an 11-2 start.

— Butler 69, Marquette 62
Marquette led 30-19 early on; they went 5-31 on the arc.
Last two games, Tyler Kolek is 2-19 from the floor.

— Memphis 107, Texas-San Antonio 101, OT
Roadrunners led by 4 with 1:16 left in regulation.
Memphis was 30-43 on foul line, UTSA 16-21.

— Saint Louis 88, St Joe’s 85
Billikens trailed 39-19 with 5:20 left in first half.
Saint Louis made 14-26 shots on the arc.

— California 82, Colorado 78
Buffaloes led by 20 with 1:38 left in first half.
Cal posted its 2nd straight upset; they were 10-23 on arc.

— Louisville 80, Miami 75
Cardinals were a 16.5-point underdog.
Miami led by 9 with 14:10 left in game.

— North Carolina 67, NC State 54
Last three games, Tar Heels allowed 57-55-54 points, all on the road.
Wolfpack shot 26.1% from floor, 2-21 on the arc.

— You don’t think the NFL Draft is a fascinating process?
Rams’ WR Puka Nucua just set the all-time receiving yardage record for a rookie, and he was the 20th receiver taken in the ’23 Draft.

— We’re starting something a little different today; on the college basketball page, I’ll post info on five of every day’s most interesting games.

Cnotes53 · Jan 12, 2024

Friday’s 6-pack:
Quarterbacks who started for Mike Vrabel with the Titans:
41-27— Ryan Tannehill
30-33— Marcus Mariota
3-6— Will Levis
2-1— Blaine Gabbert
1-2— Malik Willis
0-2— Joshua Dobbs

Quote of the Day
“We all know that college football is changing like crazy right now and we’re ahead of the curve. We’ve got a plan. We’ve got great support. If there’s something I need, I can go ask for it.”
Oregon football coach Dan Lanning, who is staying with the Ducks

Friday’s quiz
Jets were the first AFL/AFC team to win a Super Bowl; they upset the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.

Thursday’s quiz
Jim Mora Jr was the coach of the Seahawks, before Pete Carroll. He is now the coach at UConn.

Wednesday’s quiz
Campbell’s basketball team is known as the Camels; they play in the CAA.

***************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

— “What have you done for me lately?”
14 NFL teams made the playoffs this year; of the other 18 teams, eight have fired their coach, including Bill Belichick/Pete Carroll, who are Hall of Fame-level coaches.
Strange times we live in.

— In the NBA, Miami Heat signed coach Eric Spoelstra to an 8-year, $120M contract extension; he’s been Miami’s coach for 16 years, winning 59% of his games, and two NBA titles.

— Knicks recently traded for OG Anunoby; in his first six games for New York, Anunoby is +124, meaning the Knicks have outscored opponents by 124 points (20.7 points/game) with Anunoby on the floor. You don’t see numbers like that very often.

— QB Casey Thompson will finish his college career at Oklahoma next year; it’ll be his 7th year of college football. Thompson, whose father was a good QB for the Sooners, has previously played for Texas, Nebraska and Florida Atlantic.

— Bronx Bombers signed P Marcus Stroman to a 2-year, $37M deal; Stroman is from Long Island- he was 10-9, 3.95 in 25 starts for the Cubs last year.

— USC basketball star Isaiah Collier hurt his hand, is out 4-6 weeks; Trojans were already struggling at 8-8, 2-3 in Pac-12. Now it figures to get worse.

— NFL’s Washington Commanders hired former Golden State Warriors GM Bob Myers, to give owner Josh Harris objective advice on who should lead Washington into a new era- the two know each other because Harris owns the Philadelphia 76ers, and their paths crossed in NBA circles. Will be interesting to see who the Commanders’ new coach will be.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: First baseball game Vin Scully broadcasted was a Dodgers-Phillies game on April 18, 1950; seven Hall of Famers played in that game.

— Word of the Day: Transition- a change from one thing to the next, either in action or state of being.

— Santa Clara 77, Gonzaga 76
Broncos end a 26-game losing streak against Gonzaga.
Watson/Nembhard were 23-37 from floor; rest of Zags were 9-30.
Santa Clara out-rebounded Gonzaga 44-31.

— Florida Atlantic 85, Tulane 84
FAU’s Martin got fouled shooting a 3 with 0:00.4 left, made 2 of 3 foul shots.
Owls are 2-2 since their double OT win over Arizona.
Four of Tulane’s five starters played 38+ minutes.

— Utah 90, UCLA 44
Bruins went in tank, got outscored 57-21 in second half.
UCLA lost 10 of its last 12 Division I games.
Bruins are shooting 44.9% inside arc (#328), 27.9% on arc (#341)

— Illinois 71, Michigan State 68
Spartans fall to 9-7, 1-4 in conference games.
Illinois was 18-22 on foul line, Michigan State was 5-7.
Illini played only seven guys, and the 7th guy played 5:00.

— Rio Grande Valley 81, Seattle 80 OT
First win in five WAC games for the Vaqueros.
Seattle shot 62% inside arc; they led by 4 in overtime.
Three of Seattle’s last six games went to overtime.

— Georgia State 77, Old Dominion 70
Monarchs led 41-21 with 3:21 left in first half.
Georgia State had a 47-34 edge on backboards.
ODU slips to 4-12, 0-4 in Sun Belt games.

— Green Bay is a mid-major team to watch in the Horizon League; they’re 5-2 SU/7-0 ATS in Horizon games this season, after 14-46 in Horizon games the last three years.
Green Bay is the #348 experience team, #342 continuity team; they’re turning ball over 21% of time (#333) while playing a slower tempo, but they’re shooting 53.8% inside arc (#67).

— We’re starting something a little different this week; on the college basketball page, I’ll post info on five of every day’s most interesting games.

Udog · Jan 12, 2024

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Saturday’s games

Browns (11-6) @ Texans (10-7)
— Cleveland is in playoffs for third time since their reboot in 1999.
— Browns’ last playoff spot was 2020; they split two playoff games that year.
— Browns won four of their last five games; last week’s loss didn’t matter.
— Flacco is 113-87 as an NFL starter, 10-5 in playoff games.
— Browns are 1-2 ATS as road favorite TY, 5-12 since 2013.
— Cleveland is 7-3 SU in last 11 games overall.
— Browns are 8-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-6 allowing 24+.
— Browns are 4-5 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or loss points.
— over is 5-1 in last six Cleveland games.
— Coach Stefanski has 38-31 career record, 1-1 in playoffs.
— AFC North favorites are 19-9-1 ATS outside the division.

— Houston is 7-3 in its last ten games SU.
— Texans are 6-3 SU on road at home TY.
— Houston is 13-15-1 ATS last 29 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Last seven games, Texans are +7 in turnovers (10-3).
— This is Texans’ first playoff spot since 2019.
— Houston is 4-6 all-time in playoff games, 4-2 at home.
— Texans are 8-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or loss points.
— Texans are 2-6 when they allow 20+ points.
— under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.
— Rookie QB Stroud is 9-6 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff game.
— Rookie HC Ryans is 10-7 this year; obviously, this is his first playoff game.
— AFC South underdogs are 13-14 ATS outside the division.

— Browns won here 36-22 Christmas Eve, but Stroud didn’t play.
— Cleveland won last four series games.
— Browns won 27-14 in Houston LY, 36-22 this year.
— Since 2012, #5-seeds who were road favorites at #4-seeds are 5-2 ATS.

Dolphins (11-6) @ Chiefs (11-6) (-4.5)
— Dolphins are 2-3 SU in last five games, after a 9-3 start.
— Miami is 1-5 SU vs teams that made the playoffs.
— Favorites are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games.
— Miami scored 30+ points in eight of 11 wins; 18.5 ppg in losses.
— Last five games, Miami is +6 in turnovers.
— Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
— Miami lost its last five playoff games SU.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13 ATS as an underdog (0-5 TY).
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Star WR Hill used to play for the Chiefs.
— Tagovailoa is 32-19 as an NFL starter, 0-0 in playoffs.
— Miami made playoffs LY; Skylar Thompson was QB in that game.
— coach McDaniel is 0-1 in playoff games.
— AFC East underdogs are 7-13-1 outside the division.

— Chiefs won three of last four games, after a 2-4 skid.
— KC scored one offensive TD in last two games; Mahomes DNP LW.
— Chiefs kicked eight field goals last two weeks.
— Chiefs are 1-4 SU vs teams that made the playoffs (win was vs Miami).
— Chiefs haven’t had a plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last 11 games, Chiefs are minus-11 in turnovers (6-17)
— Since 2019, Chiefs are 10-2 in playoff games, winning 2 Super Bowls.
— Under is 9-3-1 in their last 14 games.
— coach Reid is 22-16 in playoff games, 12-7 with KC.
— Mahomes is 85-25 SU as an NFL starter, 11-3 in playoffs.
— AFC West favorites are 13-15 ATS outside the division.

— Weather forecast: frigid night, temps near zero. Very cold.
— Chiefs beat Miami 21-14 in Germany, back in Week 8 (was 21-0 at half).
— Chiefs won last four series games; their last loss to Miami? 2011.
— Teams split last four meetings played in Arrowhead.
— Last six years, #6-seeds are 9-3 SU vs #3-seeds in this round.

Sunday’s games

Steelers (10-7) @ Bills (11-6) (-10)
— Steelers won last three games, in QB Rudolph’s only ’23 starts.
— Rudolph is 8-4-1 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff start.
— Steelers scored 13.4 ppg in last five games Rudolph didn’t start.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh converted 19-42 on third down.
— Steelers are 5-3 SU on road this year.
— Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS last 34 games as a road dog (3-2 TY).
— Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.
— Pittsburgh lost last four playoff games, giving up 42.8 ppg.
— Four of last last Steeler games went over the total.
— coach Tomlin is 8-9 SU in playoff games,
— AFC North underdogs are 7-6-1 ATS outside the division.

— Buffalo is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS since its bye week.
— Only one of those five wins was by more than seven points.
— Bills are 9-0 giving up 20 or less points, 2-6 giving up more than 20.
— Last seven games, Buffalo has a +5 turnover ratio.
— Last six games, Bills ran ball for 152.8 yards/game.
— Bills are 4-5 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Buffalo outscored last six foes 102-47 in first half.
— Four of their last six games went over the total.
— Josh Allen is 67-34 as an NFL starter, 4-4 in playoff games.
— Bills are 4-3 in playoffs last three years, 4-1 at home.
— coach McDermott is 4-5 in playoff games.
— AFC East favorites are 8-12-1 ATS outside the division.

— Two head coaches were roommates in college.
— Buffalo won three of last four series games.
— Steelers lost 38-3 here, in Week 5 last year.
— Last three years, #2-seeds are 4-2 ATS vs #7-seeds in this round.

Packers (9-8) @ Cowboys (12-5)
— Packers are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in its last eight games.
— Packers are 14-7 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog (3-3 TY).
— Green Bay outscored last seven foes 112-51 in first half.
— Last six games, Packers are +5 in turnovers (9-4)
— Packers are 6-5 TY in one-score games.
— Green Bay is 3-3 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Last six games, Green Bay is 58-115 (50.4%) on third down.
— since 2014, Packers are 6-6 in playoffs, but that was with Rodgers at QB.
— Jordan Love is 9-9 as an NFL starter; this is his first playoff start.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— LaFleur is 58-30 as an NFL coach, 2-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North underdogs are 13-9-2 ATS outside the division.

— Dallas won seven of its last nine games SU.
— Cowboys are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Dallas scored 15.8 ppg in losses, 35.8 ppg in wins.
— Dallas is 3-4 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Cowboys are +16 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— since 1998, Dallas is 4-11 in playoff games (2-3 since 2018)
— Dallas split its last six home playoff games.
— QB Prescott is 75-45 as an NFL starter, 2-4 in playoff games.
— Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
— McCarthy won a Super Bowl coaching Green Bay.
— McCarthy is 11-10 in playoff games, 1-2 with Dallas.
— NFC East favorites are 9-10-2 ATS outside the division.

— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games.
— Dallas lost 31-28 in OT at Lambeau last year.
— Packers won last three visits to Dallas, scoring 37-35-34, with Rodgers at QB.
— Last three years, #2-seeds are 4-2 ATS vs #7-seeds in this round.

Rams (10-7) @ Lions (12-5)
— Rams are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS last eight games.
— LA is 2-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Rams are 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 6-7 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 9-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 98-46 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Stafford is 102-110-1 as an NFL starter, 28-17 with LA.
— Before that, Stafford was Detroit’s QB for 12 seasons.
— Stafford is 4-3 in playoff games, 4-0 with the Rams.
— Rams won their last five games in domed stadiums.
— under McVay, Rams are 77-48, 7-3 in playoff games.
— Six of Rams’ last seven games went over the total.
— NFC West underdogs are 12-8-1 ATS outside the division.

— Lions are in playoffs for first time since 2016.
— This is Detroit’s first home playoff game in 30 years.
— Lions’ last playoff win was in 1991.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 9-4 ATS as home favorite (5-3 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 35-15-1 ATS overall.
— Goff is 68-53-1 as an NFL starter, 24-23-1 with the Lions.
— Before that, he started for the Rams for five years.
— Last four games, Detroit is +6 in turnovers
— Last four games, Lions held opponents to 62.5 rushing yards/game.
— Lions are 9-1 when they score 26+ points, 3-4 when they don’t.
— over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.
— NFC North favorites are 12-7-1 ATS outside the division.

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— In the ’21 game, Lions ran onside kick/fake punt in first 5:00 of game.
— LA won that game 28-19, outscoring Lions 11-0 in 4th quarter.
— Lions’ GM Holmes came to Detroit from the Rams.
— Last six years, #6-seeds are 9-3 SU vs #3-seeds in this round.

Monday’s game

Eagles (11-6) @ Buccaneers (9-8)
— Philly QB Hurts has sprained middle finger on passing hand.
— Eagles are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in last six games.
— Eagles are 6-2 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Philly is 11-1 when it scores 21+ points, 0-5 if they don’t.
— Last seven weeks, Philly gave up 30.9 ppg.
— Last five games, Philly is minus-8 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite this year.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 36-19 SU, in 2-2 in playoffs.
— Hurts is 36-19 as an NFL starter, 2-2 in playoffs.
— Under is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four road games.
— Eagles are minus-11 in turnovers in their losses (+2 in wins).
— NFC East favorites are 9-10-2 ATS outside the division.

— Tampa Bay won/covered five of its last six games.
— Bucs are 1-5 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Tampa Bay is 4-4 SU at home TY, 1-2 ATS as a home dog.
— Tampa Bay is 10-5-1 ATS last 16 games as a home dog.
— Bucs are 2-7 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 7-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Last three years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 in playoff games.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002/2020; in between, they were 0-2 in playoffs.
— Tampa Bay’s last three games stayed under the total.
— Mayfield is 41-47 as an NFL starter; 1-1 in playoffs, 9-8 with Bucs.
— Bowles is 43-59 as an NFL coach, 0-1 in playoff games.
— NFC South underdogs are 10-16 ATS outside the division.

— Eagles (-5) won 25-11 in Tampa back in Week 3.
— Philly ran for 201 yards, outgained Bucs 472-174.
— Tampa Bay won four of last five series games.
— Since 2012, #5-seeds who were road favorites at #4-seeds are 5-2 ATS.

Cnotes53 · Jan 13, 2024

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six actors who appeared in Batman (TV show) and the original Magnum PI:
— Elisha Cook
— Howard Duff
— Alan Hale
— Cesar Romero
— Barbara Rush
— Jill St John

Quote of the Day
“The difficult part is, if you guys could know, it’s really hard because they’re not football people. They’re not coaches, and so to get to the real details of it is really difficult for other people.”
Pete Carroll

Saturday’s quiz
Who played QB for the Rams, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Friday’s quiz
Wayne Gretzky played 8 games for the Indianapolis Racers in the WHA, then they traded him to the Edmonton Oilers, because the Racers were having financial issues.

Thursday’s quiz
Jim Mora Jr was the coach of the Seahawks, before Pete Carroll. He is now the coach at UConn.

***********************************************

Saturday’s Den: An early look at mid-major conferences……

Early in conference play, we’re looking at some mid-major leagues…….
— Missouri Valley
Five teams are tied for first, with a 4-1 conference mark.
Looks like the third straight year the MVC will be a one-bid league.
Home favorites of 8 or less points are 10-5 ATS.
Home underdogs are 5-4 ATS.

— West Coast
Gonzaga is ranked #26 by KenPom; last time they finished that low for a season? 2011.
Zags had their 26-game win streak vs Santa Clara snapped by the Broncos Thursday.
Saint Mary’s was only 9-6 in pre-conference play; they’re no lock for an at-large bid.
Home teams are 9-3 ATS in conference play.

— Western Athletic
Finished as #11 league LY, its best ranking since 2010; they’re #14 this year.
Grand Canyon is the #63 team in country; no one else is ranked in top 110.
Home favorites of 5+ points are 3-9 ATS.
Home underdogs are 7-2 ATS.

— Southern
Samford and Western Carolina are tied for first, with 3-0 SoCon marks.
Favorites are 12-2 ATS, 8-2 at home, 4-0 on road.
Furman was 50-20 the last two years; they’re off to a slow 7-9 start TY.
40.3% of shots in SoCon games are 3-pointers, 5th-highest % of any league.

— Big West
Irvine (5-0) and Cal-San Diego (4-0) are lone unbeatens in league play.
Cal-Northridge is 12-4; they haven’t had a winning season since 2009.
Santa Barbara is only 2-3 in Big West; they’re turning ball over 21.4% of time in league play.
Home favorites are 6-9 ATS, home underdogs are 4-6.

— Sun Belt
Average of 70.7 possessions/game, 4th-fastest tempo of any league.
James Madison is off to a 15-1 start, with a win at Michigan State.
Home favorites of 6 or fewer points are 5-2 ATS.
Home underdogs are 3-8 ATS.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: In 1968, Dodgers’ P Don Drysdale had a streak of 58.2 consecutive scoreless IP; he finished with a 2.15 ERA that season, but his record was only 14-12.

— Word of the Day: Quagmire- a situation that is hard to escape because there is no easy solution.

— Summit
St Thomas is 12-6, #133 team; three years ago, they were a Division III team.
Last 3 years, Oral Roberts was 67-28; their coach/best player bolted, now they’re 8-8.
South Dakota State has been in only 1 of last 5 NCAA tourneys, but they’re 12-4 this year.
Home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 1-6 ATS

— Big Sky
Weber State, Eastern Washington, Montana are only top 200 teams in league.
Big Sky teams are shooting 37.9% on arc in league games (#3)
Home favorites are 6-4 ATS.
Big Sky hasn’t won an NCAA Tourney game since 2006 (Montana).

— America East
Vermont is 12-5; they’ve been in four of last six NCAA Tournaments.
Last 1.5 years, Mass-Lowell is 37-12, its first two winning years at D-I level.
72.6 possessions/game; so far this season, this league is playing fastest tempo.
Albany fired a coach who won 5 league titles; they’re 30-48 since then, 13-23 in league.

— Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb, Stetson, Kennesaw State are only top 200 teams in league.
41.3% of the shots in this league are 3’s, #2 in country.
Eastern Kentucky was 4-9 in pre-conference; they’re 3-0 in A-Sun games.
Stetson is making 82.6% of its foul shots, best % in country.

— Southland
#90 McNeese State is only Southland team ranked in top 250.
McNeese is coached by former VCU/LSU coach Will Wade (211-101 career record)
Cowboys have road wins this year, at VCU, UAB and Michigan.
McNeese is shooting 41.1% on arc, #2 in country.

— Patriot League
Right now, they’re #30 league, their worst ranking in last 27 years.
#172 Colgate is only Patriot team ranked in top 275 in country.
Lafayette is 3-0 in Patriot games; they were 1-12 in pre-conference.
Last Patriot team to win NCAA tourney game; 2016- Holy Cross won a First Four tilt.

— We’re starting something a little different this week; on the college basketball page, I’ll post info on five of every day’s most interesting games.

Udog · Jan 13, 2024

NFL
Weather Report

Wild Card Round

Cnotes53 · Jan 14, 2024

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Highest paid players in NBA this season:
$51,915,615— Steph Curry
$47,649,433— Kevin Durant
$47,607,350— Lebron James, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid
$46,741,590— Bradley Beal
$45,640,084— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Paul George
$45,183,960— Jimmy Butler

Quote of the Day
“I was so fortunate to become part of this team — it’s a special group. To be given a chance to do this with those guys, I’m super grateful for it. … Stinks the way it ended. But it was a lot of fun and I’m grateful for the time that we had.”
Browns’ QB Joe Flacco, who turns 39 Tuesday

Friday’s quiz
In the movie Tin Cup, Kevin Costner plays a driving range golf pro who tries to qualify for the US Open; what well-known actor played his golfing rival?

Saturday’s quiz
Vince Ferragamo played QB for the Rams in Super Bowl XIV, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Friday’s quiz
Wayne Gretzky played 8 games for the Indianapolis Racers in the WHA, then they traded him to the Edmonton Oilers, because the Racers were having financial issues.

*******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday…….

— SEC
Texas A&M 97, Kentucky 92, OT- Aggies outscored Kentucky 8-3 in overtime.
Tennessee 85, Georgia 79- Dawgs led by 11 with 6:24 left in game.
Alabama 82, Mississippi State 74- Bulldogs were only 15-27 on the foul line.
Alabama/Auburn are both 3-0 in SEC; six other teams are 2-1.
— Big X
TCU 68, Houston 67- TCU was 8-15 on arc, Houston 4-11.
Cougars were last unbeaten team in country; they lost twice this week.
Texas Tech 60, Kansas State 59- Tech outscored K-State 11-2 over final 3:21.
Baylor/Texas Tech are tied for first at 3-0; four other teams are 2-1.

— Pac-12
Washington State 73, Arizona 70- Wildcats shot 34.7% from the floor.
Wildcats split their last eight games, after an 8-0 start.
Colorado 68, USC 58- Buffs outscored USC 44-21 in second half.
Oregon is 5-0, sits atop Pac-12; Arizona State is 4-1.

— Mountain West
Utah State 87, UNLV 86- Aggies hit and 3-pointer and 2 foul shots with 0:08.4 left.
New Mexico 88, San Diego State 70- Lobos outscored Aztecs 48-33 in second half.
Wyoming 68, Fresno State 67- Bulldogs lost five of their last six games.
Utah State 4-0 in conference, Boise State 3-0, San Diego State 3-1

— Big East
Creighton 66, St John’s 65- Red Storm led by 9 with 9:29 left in game.
Xavier 85, Providence 65- Friars lost last four games, after an 11-2 start.
Seton Hall 78, Butler 72- Pirates won seven of their last eight games.
Seton Hall is 5-1 in Big East; UConn/Villanova are both 4-1.

— Atlantic 15
Fordham 80, St Bonaventure 74- Rams were a 10.5-point underdog.
Richmond 77, George Mason 70- Spiders won their last six games.
Loyola Chi 78, St Joe’s 75- Loyola outscored the Hawks 19-7 over final 6:13
Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island are all 3-0 in conference games.

— Baseball Fact of the Day: On December 9, 1965, the Reds traded Frank Robinson to the Orioles. In his first season with Baltimore, Robinson hit for the Triple Crown, and the Orioles won the World Series.

— Upsets of the Day:
Fordham (+10.5) 80, St Bonaventure 74
Washington State (+9.5) 73, Arizona 70
Campbell (+9.5) 69, Hofstra 68
Central Michigan (+7.5) 77, Kent State 62
West Virginia (+6.5) 76, Texas 73
Appalachian State (+6.5) 59, James Madison 55

— Sun Belt
Appalachian State 59, James Madison 55- ASU survived 23 turnovers (minus-10).
JMU lost two of its last three games, after a 14-0 start.
South Alabama 91, Marshall 85- Jaguars led 53-45 at halftime of this 79-possession game.
Troy is 5-0 in Sun Belt; Marshall, App State, Georgia State are all 4-1.

— Big West
Northridge 76, Fullerton 71- Matadors are 13-4; their last winning season? 2009.
Santa Barbara 85, Long Beach 76- Gauchos outscored Long Beach 50-36 in second half.
Cal-San Diego is 11-6, 5-0 in Big West games, but they’re not eligible for the Big West tournament or NCAA’s yet- this is only their 4th season as a Division I team.

— Big Sky
Portland State 69, Weber State 66- Underdog Vikings led 42-26 at halftime, hung on.
Sacramento State 66, Idaho State 64- Hornets won 3 of last 4 games (wins by 3-2-2 points)
Montana State 90, Northern Colorado 81- Bobcats shot 62.8% inside the arc.
Eastern Washington leads Big Sky with a 3-0 record; Montana State is 3-1.

— Saint Mary’s 73, Santa Clara 49
Broncos upset Gonzaga Thursday; they were down 47-18 at halftime in this game.
Gaels won five in row, 10 of last 11 games, after a 2-5 start.
Gaels are 4-0 in WCC, giving up 58.8 ppg in those games.

— Samford 134, VMI 96
Samford led this game 72-54………at halftime.
VMI shot 13-23 on the arc……and lost by 38.
Samford is shooting 41.1% on the arc (#3) this season.

— Winthrop 92, Radford 88, 3 OT’s
Radford led this game 20-5 early on.
Winthrop is 4-0 in Big South; 3 of the 4 wins came in overtime.
Eagles were 24-38 on foul line, Radford 12-15.

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