NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY SERVICE THREAD JAN. 20 2008
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************* GOOD LUCK *************
GO GIANTS !!!!
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************* GOOD LUCK *************
GO GIANTS !!!!
NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY SERVICE THREAD 1/20
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
WINNING POINTS
*New England over San Diego by 17
It?s not like the Chargers don?t possess talent or can?t beat any team.They
can. Just ask the Colts. San Diego just can?t compete at New England with
its three best offensive players banged-up. When Antonio Gates is the
healthiest of the trio with a dislocated toe, you know the Chargers have
problems. LaDainian Tomlinson (check status) has a bruised knee.
Quarterback Philip Rivers also has a bad knee. Michael Turner is an outstanding
backup runner. But he?s far from being the NFL?s rushing leader
like Tomlinson. Billy Volek is a serviceable backup quarterback. However,
this isn?t some JV squad the Chargers are facing in the AFC championship
game.The Patriots may be the best team ever.They finished the regular-season
setting records for points, touchdowns and victories.They are going for
their fourth Super Bowl championship in seven years.Tom Brady is 13-2 in
the postseason.This is his finest season, maybe the best ever for a quarterback.
The Patriots beat a much-stronger and healthier San Diego club on the
road last season in the playoffs, 24-21.They rang up 24 first downs and 403
yards Saturday in a 31-20 victory against Jacksonville, scoring on five of
eight possessions. Randy Moss only had one catch for 14 yards, still Brady
completed 26-of-28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. The
Chargers have some momentum, winning eight in a row and 12 of their
past 14. They are a different team than the one that got buried 38-14 as
three-point road underdogs to New England. Brady torched the Chargers
for 279 yards and three scores, including two touchdown throws to Moss.
New England?s fourth-ranked defense held Tomlinson to 43 yards on 18 carries.
Still, the Chargers exerted a lot of physical and mental energy in upsetting
the Colts.The Chargers?winning streak came against weak opponents.
Tennessee was the only playoff team they met in dispatching their final
seven regular-season foes and the Titans just snuck into the postseason
when the Colts played their reserves against them in Week 17.The Chargers
trailed the Titans in the second half in both of their victories.New England?s
defense gets overshadowed by its record-setting offense. Yet the Patriots
only allowed 17.1 points per game.There?s no better defensive mind than
Bill Belichick. His challenge is easier with San Diego?s key skilled players
hurting. Leadership could factor. Norv Turner is nowhere near Belichick?s
stature as a head coach.The Chargers are a Southern California team going
into cold and potentially bad weather.Rivers is a highly accurate passer. His
maturity has come into question, though, with his taunting of opponents
and sideline arguments with teammates. Maintaining composure is important
for the Chargers, yet they are one of the youngest teams with 12 rookies.
Nearly a third of the team has been in the league three years or less. Just
five San Diego starters are 30 or older.The Packers are the youngest team,
but they have a veteran leader, Brett Favre, who has been to two Super
Bowls and through many playoff wars.The Chargers have an opportunistic
defense.They led the NFL in takeaways with 48 and turnover margin at plus
24. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are feared pass rushers. Playing in
what could be sloppy conditions hurts their edge speed. Brady had an
unbelievable 50-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio. It?s asking a lot
for the Chargers to come up with takeaways.The best thing they have going
is the line probably is going to be inflated.The Patriots have only covered
one of their last seven games.We don?t see Brady committing turnovers.The
Patriots have everything going and now they?ve caught a huge break with
San Diego?s injuries. NEW ENGLAND 31-14.
*Green Bay over New York Giants by 14
At some point the courageous but banged-up Giants are going to run out of
gas.That time is going to come at Lambeau Field on Sunday.The Packers are
the healthier team,which is a huge key at this point, have home-field advantage,
the better quarterback and are playing their best ball.They even get an
extra day of rest. If you discount six bad quarters versus the Bears and an
ill-fated trip to Dallas in November, no team other than New England has
played better than Green Bay.The Giants aren?t in the Packers? class, especially
without star tight end Jeremy Shockey, several linebackers and multiple
injuries in their secondary. The Packers have the deepest set of wide
receivers in the NFC headed by Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The
Giants led the NFL in sacks. But Favre, with his quick release and veteran
savvy, will spread the field, get the ball off quickly and take advantage of
numerous mismatches. The Giants lost another defensive back against
Dallas when cornerback Aaron Ross suffered a shoulder injury. If Ross
(check status) is out, New York will be down to three healthy cornerbacks
?undrafted rookie Geoff Pope, journeyman R.W. McQuarters and Corey
Webster. The Packers played their finest game of the season Saturday in
beating Seattle at home, 42-20. The Packers? game plan was to nullify
Seattle?s quick pass rushers by throwing quick, short passes. Favre has been
at his best when that has been the team game plan. Ryan Grant rushed for
a Green Bay playoff record 201 yards, averaging 7.4 yards per carry on 27
attempts.The Giants won?t be able to key on Favre because of the Packers?
balanced attack.Green Bay is physical, tough and smart on both sides of the
ball.The Packers? special teams are solid, too.The Giants have shown outstanding
resiliency winning their last nine road contests.This will be their
third away game in three weeks, however. The Packers, by contrast, last
played away from home on Dec. 23. The Giants have gotten this far by
defeating an offensively-challenged bunch of retreads named the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers and survived a challenge at Texas Stadium when the Cowboys
continued their flat performance from the end of the regular season.The
much maligned Eli Manning still is playing while his Cowboys counterpart,
Tony Romo, probably is lying on a beach somewhere with Jessica Simpson.
Eli?s brother, Peyton, is probably off filming another commercial. It is amazing
Eli is the one still standing. He?s actually put together three straight 100-
rating passing games. Look for the Packers to draw the bad Eli rather than
the good Eli. Manning hasn?t proven he can be effective in cold and possible
bad weather.The Packers held opposing quarterbacks to a 75.6 passer
rating, while playing an extremely physical man-to-man coverage with their
two star cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Al Harris. The Packers? weak
link is their safeties, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins. Both of them have
stepped up lately, though, especially Bigby. Only the Steelers could match
the Packers giving up just six touchdowns on the ground. So don?t look for
Brandon Jacobs or third-string runner Ahmad Bradshaw being much of a
help to Manning on the ground.The Packers had no problem handling the
Giants on the road in Week 2 winning, 35-13. Favre threw three touchdowns
and had 286 yards passing.This was without a running game since
Grant, who the Packers got from the Giants, wasn?t Green Bay?s featured
back then. Rookie DeShawn Wynn was Green Bay?s leading rusher that day.
The Giants are encountering a team much, much superior to the
Buccaneers and one that is playing at a particularly high level and in much
better form than Dallas. GREEN BAY 30-16.
*New England over San Diego by 17
It?s not like the Chargers don?t possess talent or can?t beat any team.They
can. Just ask the Colts. San Diego just can?t compete at New England with
its three best offensive players banged-up. When Antonio Gates is the
healthiest of the trio with a dislocated toe, you know the Chargers have
problems. LaDainian Tomlinson (check status) has a bruised knee.
Quarterback Philip Rivers also has a bad knee. Michael Turner is an outstanding
backup runner. But he?s far from being the NFL?s rushing leader
like Tomlinson. Billy Volek is a serviceable backup quarterback. However,
this isn?t some JV squad the Chargers are facing in the AFC championship
game.The Patriots may be the best team ever.They finished the regular-season
setting records for points, touchdowns and victories.They are going for
their fourth Super Bowl championship in seven years.Tom Brady is 13-2 in
the postseason.This is his finest season, maybe the best ever for a quarterback.
The Patriots beat a much-stronger and healthier San Diego club on the
road last season in the playoffs, 24-21.They rang up 24 first downs and 403
yards Saturday in a 31-20 victory against Jacksonville, scoring on five of
eight possessions. Randy Moss only had one catch for 14 yards, still Brady
completed 26-of-28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. The
Chargers have some momentum, winning eight in a row and 12 of their
past 14. They are a different team than the one that got buried 38-14 as
three-point road underdogs to New England. Brady torched the Chargers
for 279 yards and three scores, including two touchdown throws to Moss.
New England?s fourth-ranked defense held Tomlinson to 43 yards on 18 carries.
Still, the Chargers exerted a lot of physical and mental energy in upsetting
the Colts.The Chargers?winning streak came against weak opponents.
Tennessee was the only playoff team they met in dispatching their final
seven regular-season foes and the Titans just snuck into the postseason
when the Colts played their reserves against them in Week 17.The Chargers
trailed the Titans in the second half in both of their victories.New England?s
defense gets overshadowed by its record-setting offense. Yet the Patriots
only allowed 17.1 points per game.There?s no better defensive mind than
Bill Belichick. His challenge is easier with San Diego?s key skilled players
hurting. Leadership could factor. Norv Turner is nowhere near Belichick?s
stature as a head coach.The Chargers are a Southern California team going
into cold and potentially bad weather.Rivers is a highly accurate passer. His
maturity has come into question, though, with his taunting of opponents
and sideline arguments with teammates. Maintaining composure is important
for the Chargers, yet they are one of the youngest teams with 12 rookies.
Nearly a third of the team has been in the league three years or less. Just
five San Diego starters are 30 or older.The Packers are the youngest team,
but they have a veteran leader, Brett Favre, who has been to two Super
Bowls and through many playoff wars.The Chargers have an opportunistic
defense.They led the NFL in takeaways with 48 and turnover margin at plus
24. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are feared pass rushers. Playing in
what could be sloppy conditions hurts their edge speed. Brady had an
unbelievable 50-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio. It?s asking a lot
for the Chargers to come up with takeaways.The best thing they have going
is the line probably is going to be inflated.The Patriots have only covered
one of their last seven games.We don?t see Brady committing turnovers.The
Patriots have everything going and now they?ve caught a huge break with
San Diego?s injuries. NEW ENGLAND 31-14.
*Green Bay over New York Giants by 14
At some point the courageous but banged-up Giants are going to run out of
gas.That time is going to come at Lambeau Field on Sunday.The Packers are
the healthier team,which is a huge key at this point, have home-field advantage,
the better quarterback and are playing their best ball.They even get an
extra day of rest. If you discount six bad quarters versus the Bears and an
ill-fated trip to Dallas in November, no team other than New England has
played better than Green Bay.The Giants aren?t in the Packers? class, especially
without star tight end Jeremy Shockey, several linebackers and multiple
injuries in their secondary. The Packers have the deepest set of wide
receivers in the NFC headed by Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The
Giants led the NFL in sacks. But Favre, with his quick release and veteran
savvy, will spread the field, get the ball off quickly and take advantage of
numerous mismatches. The Giants lost another defensive back against
Dallas when cornerback Aaron Ross suffered a shoulder injury. If Ross
(check status) is out, New York will be down to three healthy cornerbacks
?undrafted rookie Geoff Pope, journeyman R.W. McQuarters and Corey
Webster. The Packers played their finest game of the season Saturday in
beating Seattle at home, 42-20. The Packers? game plan was to nullify
Seattle?s quick pass rushers by throwing quick, short passes. Favre has been
at his best when that has been the team game plan. Ryan Grant rushed for
a Green Bay playoff record 201 yards, averaging 7.4 yards per carry on 27
attempts.The Giants won?t be able to key on Favre because of the Packers?
balanced attack.Green Bay is physical, tough and smart on both sides of the
ball.The Packers? special teams are solid, too.The Giants have shown outstanding
resiliency winning their last nine road contests.This will be their
third away game in three weeks, however. The Packers, by contrast, last
played away from home on Dec. 23. The Giants have gotten this far by
defeating an offensively-challenged bunch of retreads named the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers and survived a challenge at Texas Stadium when the Cowboys
continued their flat performance from the end of the regular season.The
much maligned Eli Manning still is playing while his Cowboys counterpart,
Tony Romo, probably is lying on a beach somewhere with Jessica Simpson.
Eli?s brother, Peyton, is probably off filming another commercial. It is amazing
Eli is the one still standing. He?s actually put together three straight 100-
rating passing games. Look for the Packers to draw the bad Eli rather than
the good Eli. Manning hasn?t proven he can be effective in cold and possible
bad weather.The Packers held opposing quarterbacks to a 75.6 passer
rating, while playing an extremely physical man-to-man coverage with their
two star cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Al Harris. The Packers? weak
link is their safeties, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins. Both of them have
stepped up lately, though, especially Bigby. Only the Steelers could match
the Packers giving up just six touchdowns on the ground. So don?t look for
Brandon Jacobs or third-string runner Ahmad Bradshaw being much of a
help to Manning on the ground.The Packers had no problem handling the
Giants on the road in Week 2 winning, 35-13. Favre threw three touchdowns
and had 286 yards passing.This was without a running game since
Grant, who the Packers got from the Giants, wasn?t Green Bay?s featured
back then. Rookie DeShawn Wynn was Green Bay?s leading rusher that day.
The Giants are encountering a team much, much superior to the
Buccaneers and one that is playing at a particularly high level and in much
better form than Dallas. GREEN BAY 30-16.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over SAN DIEGO by 3
[San Diego, plus the points] Norv! The power of Norv! They laughed, called us madmen at
the 2007 Winter Symposium of Football Forecasting for selecting the supercharged Nation
of Norv to win outright in Indianapolis last Sunday. As if that result shouldn?t have happened
last season? As if the Colts weren?t lucky enough to draw the Pats and the Bears at the right
time a year ago? Come on! NFL leading rusher Tomlinson on the sidelines? No problem, they
have other guys. Tight end Gates banged up? No problem, they?ll complete some passes.
Quarterback Rivers forced out, too? Since when was he ever the straw that stirs this drink,
or more than just one step beyond game manager? Nine-season NFL veteran Billy Volek has
forgotten more than Rivers knows about quarterbacking. Norv on the sidelines as the leader?
Hey, why not Norv?
All season long, we?ve been happy to buy in against the public outcry of Norv as a ninny,
simply because ?he? was 1-3 SU, then 5-5 SU at various junctures in his first season with
the Chargers. The selection label above has been planned from the outset of the post-season
? ride San Diego as far as they go in the playoffs. At 2-0, Norv times 2, the right to ?opt
out? is there. Injury excuses are staring us in the face.
It wasn?t that Norv was some secret Rockne,Walsh, Lombardi or the best football coach of
them all, Bill Belichick. It was that the negative public perception of Norv helped create value
on a team that had, and still might be clinging to, the best assortment of physical talent in
the NFL. The Chargers outplayed the Patriots in a post-season loss at San Diego last year.
Man for man, San Diego better that day, and would have been the better team the next week
vs. Indianapolis ? a game that wasn?t played?until last Sunday, that is!
Norv Turner was simply a different football coach than Marty Schottenheimer, a coach with
more NFL experience than any turkey who would be condemning him in print, on the air, or
in the stands. He primed the team differently than Schottenheimer, so that if, and probably
when they got to this point with some injuries, they would still have a team remaining to
compete. The guy was hired to get San Diego to the Super Bowl, not go 17-0 SU before they
got there. Aha! 17-0 SU is where the Patriots stand. They?re really, good. But as far as highprofile
post-season games go, Bill Belichick is more valuable as the underdog. It is to his
supreme credit that with this New England team, Belichick has gone 180 degrees from
where one would normally expect an ex-defensive coordinator to be. That?s what makes him
such a terrific NFL coach. In recent seasons, the NFL has instituted a series of rules that minimized
the effectiveness of defensive tactics. Instead of being eclipsed by their damn rules,
he went out and assembled the best offensive team instead!
Belichick?s defensive game plan from the 1990 Super Bowl against Buffalo is in the NFL Hall
of Fame, for cryin? out loud, along with the players his defense beat in that game, Jim Kelly
and Thurman Thomas! Who did the Giants have that day? Back-up QB Jeff Hostetler, overthe-
hill short-yardage back Ottis Anderson, and receivers nobody ever heard of. Eleven years
later with the Patriots, he pulled out essentially the same game plan to beat essentially the
same bull-headed, high-flying offensive team, the St. Louis Rams! With who? A rookie quarterback
Tom Brady, sluggish Antowaine (Where Am I Now?) Smith as the running back, and,
and wide receivers nobody ever heard of.
These Patriots are now the teams that were ripe for the taking by Belichick in the past. They
have the most points ever scored in an NFL season. The Chargers? They have the best twodeep
in the NFL, and a cast of characters very similar to the 1990 New York Giants and 2001
New England Patriots. This movie has been done before, and if they edit the old final cut, the
worst we can be is 2-1 with the plan. Long-range forecast of 15 degrees? Forget the warmweather
knocks, because the San Diegos can run in the cold. NEW ENGLAND, 26-23.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
*GREEN BAY over NY GIANTS by 10
Continuing with the lesson on who not to listen to and why regarding your football selection
mindset and avoiding media-created biases, there was a guy on ESPN radio in September with
the initials M.K. who was intent on leading the bandwagon for getting Tom Coughlin fired. He
asked the rhetorical question on the air, ?Come on, if you were starting an NFL franchise, which
coach would hire to help build it, Tom Coughlin, or Eric Mangini!?? The correct answer would
have been, ?Listen, b-hole, we?re not, and you?re not, starting an NFL franchise, ever, so the
question is moot and so are your motives. Let?s play the games.? Coughlin?s Giants were 0-2 SU
and ATS in early September, the losses to?Dallas and Green Bay! And here they are in Green
Bay, playing for the NFC Championship seven days after beating Dallas, against whom they were
0-2 SU and ATS in the regular season.
Your editor is flogging himself with a Big Blue noodle for going against his heart and inventing a
reason to lean to Dallas in last week?s game. The Romo hype. The Owens hype. It seeped into
the forecast. For shame. And here are the Giants traveling into the NFL?s ultimate hyped stadium
Lambeau Field, on what is forecasted to be a 4-degree night, to match up against the NFL?s ultimate
in hyped super-humans, the Man Who Would Be Favre.
But just like San Diego is more than its second-season starting quarterback Rivers, and just like
the Giants are more than the poor ol? maligned younger-brother quarterback Eli (hey, Rivers and
Manning were traded for each other, weren?t they?), the Packers are more than Brett the Living
Legend. The Green Bay pass rush is good. The secondary can cover, and is hammering receivers
right after the catch. But the biggest edge for Green Bay is that in the second season following
a conversion to a zone-blocking offensive system, the Packers represent an unusual challenge
to NFC opponents unaccustomed to seeing it anywhere else. Atlanta tried to do it, but it never
really clicked because who would fear a Michael Vick play-fake? Opposing defenses would just
be glad Vick wasn?t running himself, and they didn?t have to fear a 54% passer. Denver has done
well with the zone-blocking system for more than a decade, enjoying the most success with it
when John Elway (a Favre if there ever was another Favre) was the strong-armed quarterback
for defenses to fear. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy was brave and bold enough to start
the zone-blocking conversion in the 2006 season, his first, right when the Packers were beginning
to sprout talent as the team with the most draft picks since 2005, right when Favre was at
the crossroads for staying or going with the Packers, his career, or both. In three seasons at the
post, Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson has turned 21 draft picks into 34, and these
guys are like the lean and mean San Diego team in the AFC when the Chargers were rising from
obscurity a few seasons ago ? aggressive, talented, and under-the-radar with not much prior
activity for defensive coordinators to go to school against.
The Giants? pass rush was very effective against Tony Romo last Sunday because the Giants
were able to maintain a lead into the fourth quarter. But Packers? RB Ryan Grant has been getting
yards while untouched, such is the effectiveness of the Packers? blocking scheme. Dallas
ran some long drives at the Giants last Sunday with workhorse RB Marion Barber the key to setting
them up. But that only shortened the game and actually helped keep the Giants in it. It also
might have helped soften up the Giants? defense for this game. Hard-fought wins against divisional
rivals are often difficult to rebound from anyway, anytime, and if the Giants ? off Dallas -
- are getting defensive linemen double-teamed at the line of scrimmage and Grant is running
through lanes created by subsequent confusion, the Packers ? with the experience and strong
arm of Favre as an extra asset -- will have a lead, and have the Giants back on their heels like
they have so many other opponents this season. Note that also-ran 2007 teams Kansas City and
Denver ? defenses familiar with playing against this particular offensive scheme ? actually
played even or close to even with the Packers for four quarters in the regular season. But Green
Bay ultimately had enough all-aroundtalent and ability to overcome that, on the road each time.
GREEN BAY, 24-14.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over SAN DIEGO by 3
[San Diego, plus the points] Norv! The power of Norv! They laughed, called us madmen at
the 2007 Winter Symposium of Football Forecasting for selecting the supercharged Nation
of Norv to win outright in Indianapolis last Sunday. As if that result shouldn?t have happened
last season? As if the Colts weren?t lucky enough to draw the Pats and the Bears at the right
time a year ago? Come on! NFL leading rusher Tomlinson on the sidelines? No problem, they
have other guys. Tight end Gates banged up? No problem, they?ll complete some passes.
Quarterback Rivers forced out, too? Since when was he ever the straw that stirs this drink,
or more than just one step beyond game manager? Nine-season NFL veteran Billy Volek has
forgotten more than Rivers knows about quarterbacking. Norv on the sidelines as the leader?
Hey, why not Norv?
All season long, we?ve been happy to buy in against the public outcry of Norv as a ninny,
simply because ?he? was 1-3 SU, then 5-5 SU at various junctures in his first season with
the Chargers. The selection label above has been planned from the outset of the post-season
? ride San Diego as far as they go in the playoffs. At 2-0, Norv times 2, the right to ?opt
out? is there. Injury excuses are staring us in the face.
It wasn?t that Norv was some secret Rockne,Walsh, Lombardi or the best football coach of
them all, Bill Belichick. It was that the negative public perception of Norv helped create value
on a team that had, and still might be clinging to, the best assortment of physical talent in
the NFL. The Chargers outplayed the Patriots in a post-season loss at San Diego last year.
Man for man, San Diego better that day, and would have been the better team the next week
vs. Indianapolis ? a game that wasn?t played?until last Sunday, that is!
Norv Turner was simply a different football coach than Marty Schottenheimer, a coach with
more NFL experience than any turkey who would be condemning him in print, on the air, or
in the stands. He primed the team differently than Schottenheimer, so that if, and probably
when they got to this point with some injuries, they would still have a team remaining to
compete. The guy was hired to get San Diego to the Super Bowl, not go 17-0 SU before they
got there. Aha! 17-0 SU is where the Patriots stand. They?re really, good. But as far as highprofile
post-season games go, Bill Belichick is more valuable as the underdog. It is to his
supreme credit that with this New England team, Belichick has gone 180 degrees from
where one would normally expect an ex-defensive coordinator to be. That?s what makes him
such a terrific NFL coach. In recent seasons, the NFL has instituted a series of rules that minimized
the effectiveness of defensive tactics. Instead of being eclipsed by their damn rules,
he went out and assembled the best offensive team instead!
Belichick?s defensive game plan from the 1990 Super Bowl against Buffalo is in the NFL Hall
of Fame, for cryin? out loud, along with the players his defense beat in that game, Jim Kelly
and Thurman Thomas! Who did the Giants have that day? Back-up QB Jeff Hostetler, overthe-
hill short-yardage back Ottis Anderson, and receivers nobody ever heard of. Eleven years
later with the Patriots, he pulled out essentially the same game plan to beat essentially the
same bull-headed, high-flying offensive team, the St. Louis Rams! With who? A rookie quarterback
Tom Brady, sluggish Antowaine (Where Am I Now?) Smith as the running back, and,
and wide receivers nobody ever heard of.
These Patriots are now the teams that were ripe for the taking by Belichick in the past. They
have the most points ever scored in an NFL season. The Chargers? They have the best twodeep
in the NFL, and a cast of characters very similar to the 1990 New York Giants and 2001
New England Patriots. This movie has been done before, and if they edit the old final cut, the
worst we can be is 2-1 with the plan. Long-range forecast of 15 degrees? Forget the warmweather
knocks, because the San Diegos can run in the cold. NEW ENGLAND, 26-23.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
*GREEN BAY over NY GIANTS by 10
Continuing with the lesson on who not to listen to and why regarding your football selection
mindset and avoiding media-created biases, there was a guy on ESPN radio in September with
the initials M.K. who was intent on leading the bandwagon for getting Tom Coughlin fired. He
asked the rhetorical question on the air, ?Come on, if you were starting an NFL franchise, which
coach would hire to help build it, Tom Coughlin, or Eric Mangini!?? The correct answer would
have been, ?Listen, b-hole, we?re not, and you?re not, starting an NFL franchise, ever, so the
question is moot and so are your motives. Let?s play the games.? Coughlin?s Giants were 0-2 SU
and ATS in early September, the losses to?Dallas and Green Bay! And here they are in Green
Bay, playing for the NFC Championship seven days after beating Dallas, against whom they were
0-2 SU and ATS in the regular season.
Your editor is flogging himself with a Big Blue noodle for going against his heart and inventing a
reason to lean to Dallas in last week?s game. The Romo hype. The Owens hype. It seeped into
the forecast. For shame. And here are the Giants traveling into the NFL?s ultimate hyped stadium
Lambeau Field, on what is forecasted to be a 4-degree night, to match up against the NFL?s ultimate
in hyped super-humans, the Man Who Would Be Favre.
But just like San Diego is more than its second-season starting quarterback Rivers, and just like
the Giants are more than the poor ol? maligned younger-brother quarterback Eli (hey, Rivers and
Manning were traded for each other, weren?t they?), the Packers are more than Brett the Living
Legend. The Green Bay pass rush is good. The secondary can cover, and is hammering receivers
right after the catch. But the biggest edge for Green Bay is that in the second season following
a conversion to a zone-blocking offensive system, the Packers represent an unusual challenge
to NFC opponents unaccustomed to seeing it anywhere else. Atlanta tried to do it, but it never
really clicked because who would fear a Michael Vick play-fake? Opposing defenses would just
be glad Vick wasn?t running himself, and they didn?t have to fear a 54% passer. Denver has done
well with the zone-blocking system for more than a decade, enjoying the most success with it
when John Elway (a Favre if there ever was another Favre) was the strong-armed quarterback
for defenses to fear. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy was brave and bold enough to start
the zone-blocking conversion in the 2006 season, his first, right when the Packers were beginning
to sprout talent as the team with the most draft picks since 2005, right when Favre was at
the crossroads for staying or going with the Packers, his career, or both. In three seasons at the
post, Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson has turned 21 draft picks into 34, and these
guys are like the lean and mean San Diego team in the AFC when the Chargers were rising from
obscurity a few seasons ago ? aggressive, talented, and under-the-radar with not much prior
activity for defensive coordinators to go to school against.
The Giants? pass rush was very effective against Tony Romo last Sunday because the Giants
were able to maintain a lead into the fourth quarter. But Packers? RB Ryan Grant has been getting
yards while untouched, such is the effectiveness of the Packers? blocking scheme. Dallas
ran some long drives at the Giants last Sunday with workhorse RB Marion Barber the key to setting
them up. But that only shortened the game and actually helped keep the Giants in it. It also
might have helped soften up the Giants? defense for this game. Hard-fought wins against divisional
rivals are often difficult to rebound from anyway, anytime, and if the Giants ? off Dallas -
- are getting defensive linemen double-teamed at the line of scrimmage and Grant is running
through lanes created by subsequent confusion, the Packers ? with the experience and strong
arm of Favre as an extra asset -- will have a lead, and have the Giants back on their heels like
they have so many other opponents this season. Note that also-ran 2007 teams Kansas City and
Denver ? defenses familiar with playing against this particular offensive scheme ? actually
played even or close to even with the Packers for four quarters in the regular season. But Green
Bay ultimately had enough all-aroundtalent and ability to overcome that, on the road each time.
GREEN BAY, 24-14.
THE MAX
AFC Championship Game
Chargers @ Patriots
January 20th, 2008, 3:00PM EST
Line: Patriots ?15, 49
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
You got a vibe heading into the Jacksonville/New
England game that the Jaguars felt that they would
be able to slow down the Patriots offense, as they
put time into preparing for New England the week of
their meaningless season finale in Houston. Early in
the game Phil Simms said that the Jags had
developed confidence while watching film over the
course of the week that they could slow down the
Pats. But 26 for 28 by Brady and nearly 6 yards per
carry by Laurence Maroney (banged up early in the
season, revved up and healthy right now) shows
that the Pats O is just fine. The Chargers lived by
the big play Sunday, holding the Cots to 24 points
despite giving up 446 yards and 29 first downs. The
turnovers forced were critical. New England?s
defense showed holes. New England gave up 80,
95, and 86 yard scoring drives and gave up over 6
yards per play in the ballgame. There is room in the
New England secondary and the Chargers have
better receivers than the Jaguars, though Gates is
hurt. But let?s remember that New England always
tried to take away what the opponent does best,
and Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined
for only 66 yards on 19 carries, so clearly the Pats
were willing to give up a little through the air if they
could stifle the running game.
LaDanian Tomlinson reports a hyperextended knee
and expects to play. Antonio Gates courageously
played in pain and figures to be better here. Philip
Rovers should play, but if he has problems, Billy
Volek is as fine a replacement as there is in the
league. His game-winning drive was masterful.
Antonio Gates showed a lot of courage being in the
game but clearly was in a world of hurt. The
Chargers success came despite being the apparent
victim of a lot of questionable officiating calls.
The Patriots are the superior team by a substantial
margin. But they haven?t been covering these big
spreads. On the other hand, the Chargers skill
position injuries are substantial and will likely remain
somewhat unclear. So the side is tough. The
weather may not be cooperative here but remember
the Patriots never punted until the final half-minute
of their game against the defensively sound Jaguars.
New England is much better and the Chargers are
beat up. But that?s clearly reflected in the line. The
big spread combined with lots of Charger health
unknowns makes it difficult to make a call. Pass.
NFC Championship Game
Giants @ Packers
January 20th, 2008, 3:00PM EST
Line: Packers ?7, 42
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
The Giants gave a spirited performance in Dallas,
coming up big on both sides of the ball when they
really needed to. After Dallas? gutbusting 20-play,
90-yard drive that took 10:28 to score a touchdown
with 53 seconds left in the half, Eli Manning was
masterful in putting together the response, with the
Giants gathering all the momentum by scoring with
answering with a stunning 70-yard TD drive. It was
as big a momentum swing as you?re going to find.
The Giants then put a lot of pressure on Tony Romo
down the stretch, as it looks like Giants defensive
coordinator Spagnuolo learned from the approach of
his former boss, Philly?s Jim Johnson, who had so
much success a few weeks ago with pressure
against the Cowboys. Good coaching. Good effort.
Good run by the Giants, surviving the media
maelstrom during their slumps and putting
themselves in a position to earn a Super Bowl berth.
Green Bay put up a big number offensively against
the Eagles, helped by the snow, which lasted a lot
longer and came down heavier than even that
morning?s forecast suggested. In the conditions the
Packers had an advantage over the speed-oriented
defensive line of the Seahawks, who had trouble
getting any traction and repeatedly got beat to the
edges by Ryan Grant, who ran for 201 yards.
Teams who score big in the playoffs tend to let
down offensively, and that wouldn?t be a surprise
against the defensively solid Giants. But the Packers
have a heck of a defensive of their own, and should
be able to slow down the Giants. New York?s three
TD drives totaled 19 plays for 185 yards. They
could do little else, and on the remaining 25 plays
combined for only 45 yards.
The body of work for the Packers is very legit and
the Giants have to be tired. Like the AFC game, this
game appears to have a very legitimate favorite and
the Giants have to come up empty sooner or later,
don?t they? But that full 7-point line is tough to lay
with the Giants playing so well and on a 9-game
road-winning streak. But there does seem to be
some value in the total. We?ve highlighted in this
writeup that both of these teams were not as good
offensively as their final scores appears. Giants
numbers were modest while Green Bay benefited
from the Seahawks not handling the snow. With
both of these defenses playing excellent ball, we?ll
look to the under
AFC Championship Game
Chargers @ Patriots
January 20th, 2008, 3:00PM EST
Line: Patriots ?15, 49
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
You got a vibe heading into the Jacksonville/New
England game that the Jaguars felt that they would
be able to slow down the Patriots offense, as they
put time into preparing for New England the week of
their meaningless season finale in Houston. Early in
the game Phil Simms said that the Jags had
developed confidence while watching film over the
course of the week that they could slow down the
Pats. But 26 for 28 by Brady and nearly 6 yards per
carry by Laurence Maroney (banged up early in the
season, revved up and healthy right now) shows
that the Pats O is just fine. The Chargers lived by
the big play Sunday, holding the Cots to 24 points
despite giving up 446 yards and 29 first downs. The
turnovers forced were critical. New England?s
defense showed holes. New England gave up 80,
95, and 86 yard scoring drives and gave up over 6
yards per play in the ballgame. There is room in the
New England secondary and the Chargers have
better receivers than the Jaguars, though Gates is
hurt. But let?s remember that New England always
tried to take away what the opponent does best,
and Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined
for only 66 yards on 19 carries, so clearly the Pats
were willing to give up a little through the air if they
could stifle the running game.
LaDanian Tomlinson reports a hyperextended knee
and expects to play. Antonio Gates courageously
played in pain and figures to be better here. Philip
Rovers should play, but if he has problems, Billy
Volek is as fine a replacement as there is in the
league. His game-winning drive was masterful.
Antonio Gates showed a lot of courage being in the
game but clearly was in a world of hurt. The
Chargers success came despite being the apparent
victim of a lot of questionable officiating calls.
The Patriots are the superior team by a substantial
margin. But they haven?t been covering these big
spreads. On the other hand, the Chargers skill
position injuries are substantial and will likely remain
somewhat unclear. So the side is tough. The
weather may not be cooperative here but remember
the Patriots never punted until the final half-minute
of their game against the defensively sound Jaguars.
New England is much better and the Chargers are
beat up. But that?s clearly reflected in the line. The
big spread combined with lots of Charger health
unknowns makes it difficult to make a call. Pass.
NFC Championship Game
Giants @ Packers
January 20th, 2008, 3:00PM EST
Line: Packers ?7, 42
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
The Giants gave a spirited performance in Dallas,
coming up big on both sides of the ball when they
really needed to. After Dallas? gutbusting 20-play,
90-yard drive that took 10:28 to score a touchdown
with 53 seconds left in the half, Eli Manning was
masterful in putting together the response, with the
Giants gathering all the momentum by scoring with
answering with a stunning 70-yard TD drive. It was
as big a momentum swing as you?re going to find.
The Giants then put a lot of pressure on Tony Romo
down the stretch, as it looks like Giants defensive
coordinator Spagnuolo learned from the approach of
his former boss, Philly?s Jim Johnson, who had so
much success a few weeks ago with pressure
against the Cowboys. Good coaching. Good effort.
Good run by the Giants, surviving the media
maelstrom during their slumps and putting
themselves in a position to earn a Super Bowl berth.
Green Bay put up a big number offensively against
the Eagles, helped by the snow, which lasted a lot
longer and came down heavier than even that
morning?s forecast suggested. In the conditions the
Packers had an advantage over the speed-oriented
defensive line of the Seahawks, who had trouble
getting any traction and repeatedly got beat to the
edges by Ryan Grant, who ran for 201 yards.
Teams who score big in the playoffs tend to let
down offensively, and that wouldn?t be a surprise
against the defensively solid Giants. But the Packers
have a heck of a defensive of their own, and should
be able to slow down the Giants. New York?s three
TD drives totaled 19 plays for 185 yards. They
could do little else, and on the remaining 25 plays
combined for only 45 yards.
The body of work for the Packers is very legit and
the Giants have to be tired. Like the AFC game, this
game appears to have a very legitimate favorite and
the Giants have to come up empty sooner or later,
don?t they? But that full 7-point line is tough to lay
with the Giants playing so well and on a 9-game
road-winning streak. But there does seem to be
some value in the total. We?ve highlighted in this
writeup that both of these teams were not as good
offensively as their final scores appears. Giants
numbers were modest while Green Bay benefited
from the Seahawks not handling the snow. With
both of these defenses playing excellent ball, we?ll
look to the under
THE SPORTS MEMO
San Diego at New England -14 O/U 49
Recommendation: New England
We used the over in the Patriots game last week in this same price
range, but we?ll adjust to some injury information and some good
old visual evidence from last week?s performances to determine
a new plan of attack this week. Jacksonville had been on a monumental
run going over the total in 11 straight prior to their trip to
Foxboro and their performance against Pittsburgh told us that
trend was likely to continue against the League?s most diverse
offensive attack. Typically these Chargers have the weaponry we
would equate with an over team as well, but if you watched the
game last week you saw Tomlinson and Rivers injure their knees
and you saw a hobbled Antonio Gates become a non-factor. You
also saw the Colts take over early in the game as Peyton Manning
picked apart the secondary. That doesn?t bode well against Tom
Brady who is as patient in the pocket as any QB that has started
in the NFL. Brady doesn?t force anything, taking only what is
available; take away Moss and Welker kills you. Take away Welker
and Ben Watson goes for 25 down the middle. Watson is covered?
Throw to Gaffney. The Chargers were able to take advantage of
three turnovers from the Colts as Indy drove the field. Each turnover
stopped what looked like sure scoring drives. But the Pats
don?t turn the ball over, period. Both LT and Rivers are questionable
as of now but we?ll call for them to gut it out come game
time. If they can?t go the onus falls on Michael Turner and Darren
Sproles in the backfield and Billy Volek under center. Either scenario
is fine for us. We expect the combination of stout defense
from the Pats (who have given up less than 14 points per game at
home this season) and a conservative clock management style offense
(to protect and relieve pressure from their injured offensive
stars or backups) from the Chargers. While the Pats have fallen
off course by covering just once in their last seven games, and the
Chargers have produced the single best run ATS in the NFL down
the stretch (9-1 including eight straight) this week sets up nicely
for a blowout as Belichick?s crew head to another Super Bowl.
New York at Green Bay -7 O/U 42
Recommendation: Green Bay
The Giants continued their improbable run on the highway cashing
another ticket and taking the outright win in Big D. But if you
watched the game you probably came away less than impressed
by the G-Men, and a quick glance at the box score would justify
your feelings. New York was completely dominated from a numbers
standpoint: They were out gained by over 100 yards (including a 64
yard deficit on the ground), lost the time of possession battle by 13
minutes, gave up more sacks and allowed the Cowboys to covert on
10-16 on third down. It wasn?t exactly the performance of a lifetime
and certainly those numbers wouldn?t get the job done against the
Packers. Green Bay spotted the Seahawks a 14 point lead after two
quick Ryan Grant turnovers. But Grant fully redeemed himself by
going over 200 yards while scoring three TDs and the Packers,
who scored a TD on six straight possessions, ran away from Seattle
(quite literally). The same fundamental and situational matchups
that made the Packers an appealing bet last week make them an
appealing bet again this week. Their rushing attack is absolutely
looking like one of the best in football right now as Ryan Grant
continues to punish defenses behind an excellent zone blocking offensive
line. Grant pushed his streak of 100 yard efforts to six in
his last 11 outings while scoring at least one TD in each of his last
seven games. The Giants? numbers tell a story of being able to defend
the run; they do after all rank in the top ten in that category.
But we saw Marion Barber run all over them before Dallas decided
to give up on the run, something the Packers don?t seem likely to
do. The Giants and their backers will point to the pressure they
put on Tony Romo, and the fact that they are one of the best pass
rushing teams in the NFL as being a big plus for them this week.
But Green Bay utilizes the three step drop quick-to-intermediate
passing game really neutralizing much pass rush, and their WRs
are amongst the best in producing yards after the catch. Lambeau
has been magical this season (7-1-1 ATS) once again and they?ll be
rocking this week as their beloved Pack head to the Super Bowl.
San Diego at New England -14 O/U 49
Recommendation: New England
We used the over in the Patriots game last week in this same price
range, but we?ll adjust to some injury information and some good
old visual evidence from last week?s performances to determine
a new plan of attack this week. Jacksonville had been on a monumental
run going over the total in 11 straight prior to their trip to
Foxboro and their performance against Pittsburgh told us that
trend was likely to continue against the League?s most diverse
offensive attack. Typically these Chargers have the weaponry we
would equate with an over team as well, but if you watched the
game last week you saw Tomlinson and Rivers injure their knees
and you saw a hobbled Antonio Gates become a non-factor. You
also saw the Colts take over early in the game as Peyton Manning
picked apart the secondary. That doesn?t bode well against Tom
Brady who is as patient in the pocket as any QB that has started
in the NFL. Brady doesn?t force anything, taking only what is
available; take away Moss and Welker kills you. Take away Welker
and Ben Watson goes for 25 down the middle. Watson is covered?
Throw to Gaffney. The Chargers were able to take advantage of
three turnovers from the Colts as Indy drove the field. Each turnover
stopped what looked like sure scoring drives. But the Pats
don?t turn the ball over, period. Both LT and Rivers are questionable
as of now but we?ll call for them to gut it out come game
time. If they can?t go the onus falls on Michael Turner and Darren
Sproles in the backfield and Billy Volek under center. Either scenario
is fine for us. We expect the combination of stout defense
from the Pats (who have given up less than 14 points per game at
home this season) and a conservative clock management style offense
(to protect and relieve pressure from their injured offensive
stars or backups) from the Chargers. While the Pats have fallen
off course by covering just once in their last seven games, and the
Chargers have produced the single best run ATS in the NFL down
the stretch (9-1 including eight straight) this week sets up nicely
for a blowout as Belichick?s crew head to another Super Bowl.
New York at Green Bay -7 O/U 42
Recommendation: Green Bay
The Giants continued their improbable run on the highway cashing
another ticket and taking the outright win in Big D. But if you
watched the game you probably came away less than impressed
by the G-Men, and a quick glance at the box score would justify
your feelings. New York was completely dominated from a numbers
standpoint: They were out gained by over 100 yards (including a 64
yard deficit on the ground), lost the time of possession battle by 13
minutes, gave up more sacks and allowed the Cowboys to covert on
10-16 on third down. It wasn?t exactly the performance of a lifetime
and certainly those numbers wouldn?t get the job done against the
Packers. Green Bay spotted the Seahawks a 14 point lead after two
quick Ryan Grant turnovers. But Grant fully redeemed himself by
going over 200 yards while scoring three TDs and the Packers,
who scored a TD on six straight possessions, ran away from Seattle
(quite literally). The same fundamental and situational matchups
that made the Packers an appealing bet last week make them an
appealing bet again this week. Their rushing attack is absolutely
looking like one of the best in football right now as Ryan Grant
continues to punish defenses behind an excellent zone blocking offensive
line. Grant pushed his streak of 100 yard efforts to six in
his last 11 outings while scoring at least one TD in each of his last
seven games. The Giants? numbers tell a story of being able to defend
the run; they do after all rank in the top ten in that category.
But we saw Marion Barber run all over them before Dallas decided
to give up on the run, something the Packers don?t seem likely to
do. The Giants and their backers will point to the pressure they
put on Tony Romo, and the fact that they are one of the best pass
rushing teams in the NFL as being a big plus for them this week.
But Green Bay utilizes the three step drop quick-to-intermediate
passing game really neutralizing much pass rush, and their WRs
are amongst the best in producing yards after the catch. Lambeau
has been magical this season (7-1-1 ATS) once again and they?ll be
rocking this week as their beloved Pack head to the Super Bowl.
POINTWISE
SAN DIEGO (13-5) at NEW ENGLAND (17-0)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 3:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 14? -- OVER/UNDER: 49
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.9 . 25- 17 .. 17-19 .. 123-104 .. 200- 219 .. +27 . Nw England
Nw England 45.9 . 36- 17 .. 25-17 .. 118- 97 .. 294- 195 .. +18 . by 13.1 Pts
Double Revenge! For the rampaging Chargers, this one may not be the Super
Bowl, but a win would be the supreme retribution, not only for last year's early exit
from the playoffs, but also for this year's embarrassing 38-14 wipeout (week #2).
San Diego has not only won 8 straight games, but has covered all 8, by 80? pts!
53 takeaways, with the SU winner covering all 18 games involving the Chargers
this season. In their win over the Colts, they allowed 29 FDS, & forced just a single
punt, but check a 7.8-6.8 yds per play edge over potent Indy, with their 4 TDs
coming on drives of 78, 83, 74, & 78 yds. And that vs a defense which ranked 3rd
best in the NFL. They are hurting at QB & RB, with both Rivers & Tomlinson
nursing knee injuries, but check Volek's brilliant stint as backup QB. A team on a
mission, which is just reeking with confidence. And they'll need it all, if they are to
derail the perfect (17-0) Pats, who are in their 5th title game in the last 7 years, &
who have won their last TEN home playoff games. We know that they've covered
only 2 of their last 9 games (minus 51? pts ATS in those 9), after an 8-0 ATS start
(+117 pts). The Jags were the team which no one wanted to face in the playoffs,
but Brady was a spectacular 26-of-28, with only a dropped pass (Welker) preventing
a Patriot cover. The Pats put the clamps on Jacksonville's vaunted overland
game in the 2nd half, & should be able to do likewise vs the Chargers. Teams with
better spread logs are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs so far, & the Pats are just 6-6 ATS in
playoff games since their first Super Bowl win, but hopeful Chargers are outgunned.
PROPHECY: NEW ENGLAND 38 - San Diego 20 RATING: 5
NEW YORK GIANTS (12-6) at GREEN BAY (14-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 6:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: GREEN BAY BY 7 -- OVER/UNDER: 42
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.8 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 130- 99 .. 193- 206 ... - 5 . Green Bay
Green Bay... 44.4 . 28- 18 .. 19-19 .. 108- 99 .. 265- 208 .. + 3 . by 9.5 Pts
Like the above contest, these 2 combatants have also previously met this season,
coincidentally in week #2. The stats in that affair were pretty much a wash, but
when the dust settled, the scoreboard read Green Bay 35 - New York 13, as the
Packers outscored the Giants, 21-0, in the 4th period. Thus an 0-2 start for NY,
allowing 80 pts. But things have sure changed, with the Giants winding up the
season, with the 7th best "D" in the NFL, as well as a 12-4 SU run since that
dreadful opening. In their win over the Cowboys, they became the first NFC team
to beat a #1 seed in the divisionals. Try NINE straight road wins, allowing a paltry
14.2 ppg in that spectacular franchise-record run. Again, vs Dallas, NY allowed
150 RYs the first 3 quarters, but just 4 in the 4th. And Manning? He has thrown
8 TDs, with just a single pick the last 3 weeks (Pats, Bucs, 'Boys). A formidable
challenge for the Packers, who are on a brilliant 18-3 SU run, as well as a 20-6
ATS skein. They just keep on doing it. Check a 42-6 windup vs the Seahawks a
week ago, scoring TDs on 6 consecutive possessions. Favre: 3/0, & now 31/15
for the season. And Grant has certainly provided the overland punch, with his 201
RYs (7.4 ypr) & 3 TDs vs Seattle both franchise playoff records, as well as atoning
for a pair of fumbles, which staked the Seahawks to an early 14-0 lead. He is now
at 5.4 ypr for the season. The Pack are averaging 34.3 ppg in their last 8 meaningful
games, & the SU winner is 16-0-1 ATS in Green Bay contests. Extremely
difficult bucking such road warriors, as these Giants, but Pack has done it all year.
PROPHECY: GREEN BAY 27 - New York Giants 16 RATING: 6
SAN DIEGO (13-5) at NEW ENGLAND (17-0)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 3:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 14? -- OVER/UNDER: 49
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.9 . 25- 17 .. 17-19 .. 123-104 .. 200- 219 .. +27 . Nw England
Nw England 45.9 . 36- 17 .. 25-17 .. 118- 97 .. 294- 195 .. +18 . by 13.1 Pts
Double Revenge! For the rampaging Chargers, this one may not be the Super
Bowl, but a win would be the supreme retribution, not only for last year's early exit
from the playoffs, but also for this year's embarrassing 38-14 wipeout (week #2).
San Diego has not only won 8 straight games, but has covered all 8, by 80? pts!
53 takeaways, with the SU winner covering all 18 games involving the Chargers
this season. In their win over the Colts, they allowed 29 FDS, & forced just a single
punt, but check a 7.8-6.8 yds per play edge over potent Indy, with their 4 TDs
coming on drives of 78, 83, 74, & 78 yds. And that vs a defense which ranked 3rd
best in the NFL. They are hurting at QB & RB, with both Rivers & Tomlinson
nursing knee injuries, but check Volek's brilliant stint as backup QB. A team on a
mission, which is just reeking with confidence. And they'll need it all, if they are to
derail the perfect (17-0) Pats, who are in their 5th title game in the last 7 years, &
who have won their last TEN home playoff games. We know that they've covered
only 2 of their last 9 games (minus 51? pts ATS in those 9), after an 8-0 ATS start
(+117 pts). The Jags were the team which no one wanted to face in the playoffs,
but Brady was a spectacular 26-of-28, with only a dropped pass (Welker) preventing
a Patriot cover. The Pats put the clamps on Jacksonville's vaunted overland
game in the 2nd half, & should be able to do likewise vs the Chargers. Teams with
better spread logs are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs so far, & the Pats are just 6-6 ATS in
playoff games since their first Super Bowl win, but hopeful Chargers are outgunned.
PROPHECY: NEW ENGLAND 38 - San Diego 20 RATING: 5
NEW YORK GIANTS (12-6) at GREEN BAY (14-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 6:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: GREEN BAY BY 7 -- OVER/UNDER: 42
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.8 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 130- 99 .. 193- 206 ... - 5 . Green Bay
Green Bay... 44.4 . 28- 18 .. 19-19 .. 108- 99 .. 265- 208 .. + 3 . by 9.5 Pts
Like the above contest, these 2 combatants have also previously met this season,
coincidentally in week #2. The stats in that affair were pretty much a wash, but
when the dust settled, the scoreboard read Green Bay 35 - New York 13, as the
Packers outscored the Giants, 21-0, in the 4th period. Thus an 0-2 start for NY,
allowing 80 pts. But things have sure changed, with the Giants winding up the
season, with the 7th best "D" in the NFL, as well as a 12-4 SU run since that
dreadful opening. In their win over the Cowboys, they became the first NFC team
to beat a #1 seed in the divisionals. Try NINE straight road wins, allowing a paltry
14.2 ppg in that spectacular franchise-record run. Again, vs Dallas, NY allowed
150 RYs the first 3 quarters, but just 4 in the 4th. And Manning? He has thrown
8 TDs, with just a single pick the last 3 weeks (Pats, Bucs, 'Boys). A formidable
challenge for the Packers, who are on a brilliant 18-3 SU run, as well as a 20-6
ATS skein. They just keep on doing it. Check a 42-6 windup vs the Seahawks a
week ago, scoring TDs on 6 consecutive possessions. Favre: 3/0, & now 31/15
for the season. And Grant has certainly provided the overland punch, with his 201
RYs (7.4 ypr) & 3 TDs vs Seattle both franchise playoff records, as well as atoning
for a pair of fumbles, which staked the Seahawks to an early 14-0 lead. He is now
at 5.4 ypr for the season. The Pack are averaging 34.3 ppg in their last 8 meaningful
games, & the SU winner is 16-0-1 ATS in Green Bay contests. Extremely
difficult bucking such road warriors, as these Giants, but Pack has done it all year.
PROPHECY: GREEN BAY 27 - New York Giants 16 RATING: 6
WILD BILL
Patriots -14 (4 units) Brady & Company are much healthier in this matchup at home and the receiving arsenal the Patriots have will create havor in the Charger secondary. Maroney also will be a vital key as will special teams, turnovers and homefield advantage. Colts game, Chargers gave 100% and they will bring it to the Patriots as well, however the 2nd half the Bolts will wear down. New England 31 Chargers 10.
Over 42 Packers-Giants (5 units) All out war in the trenches in this tilt and Eli will have to throw more than 18 passes for the Giants to win or to even have a chance here in this spot. Giants gave it all they had last week as well vs the Cowboys who completely left their energy in the locker room at half time after the Giants went down the field in less than 50 seconds to tie it up 14-14 at Dallas. The Packers got out of the gate horribly, turning the ball over twice in the first 2 minutes of the game vs Seattle. Favre and company will have their game faces on and have a huge home field advantage. The Giants have won 9 straight on the road however their earlier matchup at home vs the Packers was an embarassment 35-13 loss to the Packers. Favre and former Giant, Ryan Grant will have huge days, however the special teams and defense will make a strong effort for both teams and Home Field factors will help the Packers. These are professional players and weather could play into the factor of this game, however, 42 points is a bit too low for me. Brett Favre could be playing his last game in Green Bay and Bill Parcells awaits Tom Coughlin losing so he can officially talk to him about the Dolphin job. Packers 34 Giants 17.
Packers -6 1/2 (3 units)
Patriots -14 (4 units) Brady & Company are much healthier in this matchup at home and the receiving arsenal the Patriots have will create havor in the Charger secondary. Maroney also will be a vital key as will special teams, turnovers and homefield advantage. Colts game, Chargers gave 100% and they will bring it to the Patriots as well, however the 2nd half the Bolts will wear down. New England 31 Chargers 10.
Over 42 Packers-Giants (5 units) All out war in the trenches in this tilt and Eli will have to throw more than 18 passes for the Giants to win or to even have a chance here in this spot. Giants gave it all they had last week as well vs the Cowboys who completely left their energy in the locker room at half time after the Giants went down the field in less than 50 seconds to tie it up 14-14 at Dallas. The Packers got out of the gate horribly, turning the ball over twice in the first 2 minutes of the game vs Seattle. Favre and company will have their game faces on and have a huge home field advantage. The Giants have won 9 straight on the road however their earlier matchup at home vs the Packers was an embarassment 35-13 loss to the Packers. Favre and former Giant, Ryan Grant will have huge days, however the special teams and defense will make a strong effort for both teams and Home Field factors will help the Packers. These are professional players and weather could play into the factor of this game, however, 42 points is a bit too low for me. Brett Favre could be playing his last game in Green Bay and Bill Parcells awaits Tom Coughlin losing so he can officially talk to him about the Dolphin job. Packers 34 Giants 17.
Packers -6 1/2 (3 units)
BIG AL
100% (27-0) NFL PLAYOFF GOY: GREEN BAY
At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the NY Giants. New York is playing solid football, no doubt, but this will be its third consecutive road game in the Playoffs. Teams struggle on the road off back-to-back road games, no matter if it's the regular season, or the playoffs, and it won't help the Giants any that Green Bay also will have an extra day to rest since the Packers played on Saturday. And like Saturday's game vs. Seattle, Lambeau Field should be blanketed by snow, with temperatures hovering around 8 degrees. Last week, the Packers spotted Seattle a 14-0 lead on the heels of two Ryan Grant fumbles, and then outscored Seattle 42-6 the rest of the way. New York doesn't have a one-dimensional offense like the Seahawks, but the Giants do have a weak secondary that Brett Favre should be able to exploit. New York's modus operandi under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is to blitz in order to "protect" its weak secondary by forcing an opposing quarterback to get rid of the ball faster. But Brett Favre, behind terrific offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, will get ample protection, and he won't have any problems finding open receivers in Green Bay's West Coast-style offense. It also is key that coach Mike McCarthy is an expert play-caller (one of the NFL's best). These two teams met earlier this season, and Green Bay easily won 35-13. For technical support, consider that NFL road dogs priced from +3 to +9.5 points have covered 0 of 14 games in the Playoffs since January 4, 1987 if they're matched up against a non-division foe that scored 35+ points the previous week! And unrested revenging teams, off back-to-back upsets, are a dismal 0-13 ATS since 1987 on the road vs. non-division foes, if they are not getting more than 8 points. Take Green Bay.
100% (27-0) NFL PLAYOFF GOY: GREEN BAY
At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the NY Giants. New York is playing solid football, no doubt, but this will be its third consecutive road game in the Playoffs. Teams struggle on the road off back-to-back road games, no matter if it's the regular season, or the playoffs, and it won't help the Giants any that Green Bay also will have an extra day to rest since the Packers played on Saturday. And like Saturday's game vs. Seattle, Lambeau Field should be blanketed by snow, with temperatures hovering around 8 degrees. Last week, the Packers spotted Seattle a 14-0 lead on the heels of two Ryan Grant fumbles, and then outscored Seattle 42-6 the rest of the way. New York doesn't have a one-dimensional offense like the Seahawks, but the Giants do have a weak secondary that Brett Favre should be able to exploit. New York's modus operandi under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is to blitz in order to "protect" its weak secondary by forcing an opposing quarterback to get rid of the ball faster. But Brett Favre, behind terrific offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, will get ample protection, and he won't have any problems finding open receivers in Green Bay's West Coast-style offense. It also is key that coach Mike McCarthy is an expert play-caller (one of the NFL's best). These two teams met earlier this season, and Green Bay easily won 35-13. For technical support, consider that NFL road dogs priced from +3 to +9.5 points have covered 0 of 14 games in the Playoffs since January 4, 1987 if they're matched up against a non-division foe that scored 35+ points the previous week! And unrested revenging teams, off back-to-back upsets, are a dismal 0-13 ATS since 1987 on the road vs. non-division foes, if they are not getting more than 8 points. Take Green Bay.
LARRY NESS
My 20* Championship GOY is on the GB Packers at 6:30 ET.
The last time these two storied NFL franchises met in the playoffs was in the 1962 NFL Championship Game. Green Bay was coached by Vince Lombardi and its QB was Bart Starr, while New York's head coach was Allie Sherman and its QB, the late-YA Title. The Packers won that game 16-7 in New York and will win again here, only the score WON'T be that close this time around. Congrats to the Giants for their wins over the Buccs (a fraud!) and Cowboys (finished year on an 0-5 ATS run!) on the road but now they'll have to win in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this year. Not only are they playing their third straight playoff game on the road but it's their SIXTH road game in their last eight games. Yes, I realize the Giants have won NINE straight road games (includes neutral site win in London) but am I supposed to believe they have an ADVANTAGE playing in Lambeau? Over Green Bay's last five home games, the Pack have won by margins of 34, 14, 31, 21 and 22 points! History shows that NINE teams have attempted to win a third straight playoff game on the road since the Wild Card round was added in 1978. Just two teams have completed the 'road trifecta' and made it to the Super Bowl The Pats in '85 and the Steelers in '05. Only ONE of the seven SU losers (the '95 Colts) 'covered' in their title game loss, as the other six games were decided by 29, 14, 7, 27, 14 and 20 points! That's just one game decided by less than 14 points, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. Let's take a close look at the Giants. Eli Manning owns a career QB rating of 73.4 over 57 regular season games. In Week 17 against the Pats, he threw for 251 yards and four TDs with a QB rating of 118.6. In New York's two playoff wins, he's only threw for 185 and 163 yards but he's got four TDPs and zero INTs, plus QB ratings of 117.1 and 132.4. That's a three-game run in which his QB rating is almost 50 points better than his career average, while he's completed 70.1 percent of his throws with an 8-1 ratio. His career completion percentage is just 54.7 and his TD-to-INT ratio is 77-78. So just who is this guy who has been playing QB for the Giants these last three weeks? Green Bay's D allowed just 11.4 PPG at home over its final five games and after handing Seattle 14 points LW, held the Seahawks to just 150 yards (and two FGs) on their final 10 possessions! Green Bay owns two "shut-down" CBs in Harris and Woodson and on the year, allowed opposing QBs a rating of 75.6 (very similar to the 'real' Eli's career rating!). I haven't even mentioned that TE Shockey is out, Burress (one catch for five yards LW) is still nowhere near 100% or that the Giants have averaged just 3.6 YPC rushing in the two playoff wins, with just one TD. By the way, Green Bay allowed just six rushing TDs this season, tying Pittsburgh for the NFL-low. I haven't even spent much time on Favre and the GB offense, one which has scored 31 points or more in EIGHT of its last 10 games (Giants have topped 24 points just two times in their last 11). Favre stopped forcing things this year and began letting his teammates "make plays" and it turns out he's got a deep group of very good receivers and it won't hurt here, that the Giants' secondary is battered and vulnerable. Then of course there's RB Ryan Grant, who has just been UNBELIEVABLE. He averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games and then last week....Well you KNOW what he did! Championship GOY 20* GB Packers.
Good Luck...Larry
My 20* Championship GOY is on the GB Packers at 6:30 ET.
The last time these two storied NFL franchises met in the playoffs was in the 1962 NFL Championship Game. Green Bay was coached by Vince Lombardi and its QB was Bart Starr, while New York's head coach was Allie Sherman and its QB, the late-YA Title. The Packers won that game 16-7 in New York and will win again here, only the score WON'T be that close this time around. Congrats to the Giants for their wins over the Buccs (a fraud!) and Cowboys (finished year on an 0-5 ATS run!) on the road but now they'll have to win in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this year. Not only are they playing their third straight playoff game on the road but it's their SIXTH road game in their last eight games. Yes, I realize the Giants have won NINE straight road games (includes neutral site win in London) but am I supposed to believe they have an ADVANTAGE playing in Lambeau? Over Green Bay's last five home games, the Pack have won by margins of 34, 14, 31, 21 and 22 points! History shows that NINE teams have attempted to win a third straight playoff game on the road since the Wild Card round was added in 1978. Just two teams have completed the 'road trifecta' and made it to the Super Bowl The Pats in '85 and the Steelers in '05. Only ONE of the seven SU losers (the '95 Colts) 'covered' in their title game loss, as the other six games were decided by 29, 14, 7, 27, 14 and 20 points! That's just one game decided by less than 14 points, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. Let's take a close look at the Giants. Eli Manning owns a career QB rating of 73.4 over 57 regular season games. In Week 17 against the Pats, he threw for 251 yards and four TDs with a QB rating of 118.6. In New York's two playoff wins, he's only threw for 185 and 163 yards but he's got four TDPs and zero INTs, plus QB ratings of 117.1 and 132.4. That's a three-game run in which his QB rating is almost 50 points better than his career average, while he's completed 70.1 percent of his throws with an 8-1 ratio. His career completion percentage is just 54.7 and his TD-to-INT ratio is 77-78. So just who is this guy who has been playing QB for the Giants these last three weeks? Green Bay's D allowed just 11.4 PPG at home over its final five games and after handing Seattle 14 points LW, held the Seahawks to just 150 yards (and two FGs) on their final 10 possessions! Green Bay owns two "shut-down" CBs in Harris and Woodson and on the year, allowed opposing QBs a rating of 75.6 (very similar to the 'real' Eli's career rating!). I haven't even mentioned that TE Shockey is out, Burress (one catch for five yards LW) is still nowhere near 100% or that the Giants have averaged just 3.6 YPC rushing in the two playoff wins, with just one TD. By the way, Green Bay allowed just six rushing TDs this season, tying Pittsburgh for the NFL-low. I haven't even spent much time on Favre and the GB offense, one which has scored 31 points or more in EIGHT of its last 10 games (Giants have topped 24 points just two times in their last 11). Favre stopped forcing things this year and began letting his teammates "make plays" and it turns out he's got a deep group of very good receivers and it won't hurt here, that the Giants' secondary is battered and vulnerable. Then of course there's RB Ryan Grant, who has just been UNBELIEVABLE. He averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games and then last week....Well you KNOW what he did! Championship GOY 20* GB Packers.
Good Luck...Larry
anyone have Greg Roberts pk he has a NFL playoff GOY up on his website for 69.00 to many dollars.
Matty O'Shea | NFL Total Single-Dime Bet
304 NEP / 303 SDC Over 46.0 BetUS
Analysis: Do you honestly think the greatest scoring offense in NFL history will lay down and play conservatively with one game left before they get to the Super Bowl? I didn't think so. The Patriots will pull out all the stops and take advantage of every mismatch the Chargers present, just like they did in their Week 2 matchup. New England won that game 38-14 and has scored 31 points or more in 7 of 9 home games. San Diego is also averaging 28.5 points during its 8-game winning streak. The cold weather will likely affect the Chargers more than the Patriots, but I still see them scoring at least 20 points to stay in the game. Take the OVER as my Single Dime AFC Championship Play O' the Day.
Matty O'Shea | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
306 GBP / 305 NYG Under 40.5 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: Everybody saw what the Packers did last week, putting up their biggest postseason point total of all-time. This week, the weather will be much colder and both teams will likely turn this into a ball-control game with the better running team winning. Keep in mind that the Giants have won 9 straight road games, with the UNDER going 8-1 in those games. Also keep in mind that New York QB Eli Manning struggles in cold weather and will not be nearly as effective throwing the ball. While snow played a big factor last week for Green Bay, this team struggled in extreme cold conditions at Chicago on December 23rd in a 35-7 loss. That's why I think the running games will play such a big role in deciding who moves on to the Super Bowl. And that's why I believe this game will go UNDER as my Double Dime NFL Conference Championship Play O' the Week.
304 NEP / 303 SDC Over 46.0 BetUS
Analysis: Do you honestly think the greatest scoring offense in NFL history will lay down and play conservatively with one game left before they get to the Super Bowl? I didn't think so. The Patriots will pull out all the stops and take advantage of every mismatch the Chargers present, just like they did in their Week 2 matchup. New England won that game 38-14 and has scored 31 points or more in 7 of 9 home games. San Diego is also averaging 28.5 points during its 8-game winning streak. The cold weather will likely affect the Chargers more than the Patriots, but I still see them scoring at least 20 points to stay in the game. Take the OVER as my Single Dime AFC Championship Play O' the Day.
Matty O'Shea | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
306 GBP / 305 NYG Under 40.5 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: Everybody saw what the Packers did last week, putting up their biggest postseason point total of all-time. This week, the weather will be much colder and both teams will likely turn this into a ball-control game with the better running team winning. Keep in mind that the Giants have won 9 straight road games, with the UNDER going 8-1 in those games. Also keep in mind that New York QB Eli Manning struggles in cold weather and will not be nearly as effective throwing the ball. While snow played a big factor last week for Green Bay, this team struggled in extreme cold conditions at Chicago on December 23rd in a 35-7 loss. That's why I think the running games will play such a big role in deciding who moves on to the Super Bowl. And that's why I believe this game will go UNDER as my Double Dime NFL Conference Championship Play O' the Week.
Robert Ferringo's Picks For Football
2.5-Unit Play. Take #306 Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
2-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 40.0 New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
I was on the G-Men last week, but I think it?s time to get off. This one is relatively simple to me: I don?t think that they have the corners to keep up with Green Bay?s passing attack. I think that this is just a bad, bad matchup for them. Also, Ryan Grant could have a similar type of day that Marion Barber had against the Giants last week and if that?s the case then New York will be in trouble. The Packers have been the best team in the NFC for over a month now and I think the home crowd will be enough of an edge here. I commend the Giants for their win at Dallas last week, but watching that game I felt like the Cowboys more blew that game with undisciplined play than the Giants won it by being the better team. The Packers lost to only two teams this year ? Dallas and Chicago ? because they are a solid all-around team. They are 14-4-2 ATS against the NFC, 5-0 ATS at home, and 19-7-2 ATS overall. They will force Eli Manning to make bad decisions ? something he?s prone to anyway ? and they will win the turnover battle. I?m looking for a 10- or 13-point Green Bay victory in a game that is still a little tense in the fourth quarter.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #304 New England (-14) over San Diego (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
Even if the Chargers were full strength, I?m not sure they would cover this line. They lose by 20+ points in their initial meeting in September. And while San Diego is playing much better ball over the past two months they still don?t stack up to the eventual champions. New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five AFC Championship games and they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 January games. Further, the Pats are 8-3-1 ATS in home playoff games and 41-20-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. New England made it to the doorstep of the Super Bowl last year only to come up short and I don?t see them taking their foot off the gas for one instant this weekend. San Diego is 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog and they are simply too banged up to stand in New England?s way. Factor in a warm-weather, West Coast team traveling east to play in the snow, as well as some bad blood between the organizations over the past two years and I think this one has Pats rout written all over it.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #306 Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
2-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 40.0 New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
I was on the G-Men last week, but I think it?s time to get off. This one is relatively simple to me: I don?t think that they have the corners to keep up with Green Bay?s passing attack. I think that this is just a bad, bad matchup for them. Also, Ryan Grant could have a similar type of day that Marion Barber had against the Giants last week and if that?s the case then New York will be in trouble. The Packers have been the best team in the NFC for over a month now and I think the home crowd will be enough of an edge here. I commend the Giants for their win at Dallas last week, but watching that game I felt like the Cowboys more blew that game with undisciplined play than the Giants won it by being the better team. The Packers lost to only two teams this year ? Dallas and Chicago ? because they are a solid all-around team. They are 14-4-2 ATS against the NFC, 5-0 ATS at home, and 19-7-2 ATS overall. They will force Eli Manning to make bad decisions ? something he?s prone to anyway ? and they will win the turnover battle. I?m looking for a 10- or 13-point Green Bay victory in a game that is still a little tense in the fourth quarter.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #304 New England (-14) over San Diego (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
Even if the Chargers were full strength, I?m not sure they would cover this line. They lose by 20+ points in their initial meeting in September. And while San Diego is playing much better ball over the past two months they still don?t stack up to the eventual champions. New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five AFC Championship games and they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 January games. Further, the Pats are 8-3-1 ATS in home playoff games and 41-20-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. New England made it to the doorstep of the Super Bowl last year only to come up short and I don?t see them taking their foot off the gas for one instant this weekend. San Diego is 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog and they are simply too banged up to stand in New England?s way. Factor in a warm-weather, West Coast team traveling east to play in the snow, as well as some bad blood between the organizations over the past two years and I think this one has Pats rout written all over it.
Vegas Sports Informer's Picks For Football
NFL NFC-AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS
5 Unit Play. #304 Take Over 46 San Diego at New England (Sunday 1/20 3:00 PM CBS)
I?ve been looking to bet the Over on all New England games since Week 3 so taking the over in this game was pretty easy. New England should be able to score in the high 30?s against San Diego and I?m hoping the Chargers can score in the low 20?s. New England is 9-3 O/U as a home favorite and the Patriots are also 16-6-1 O/U in their last 23 games. San Diego is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games as an underdog.
4 Unit Play. #304 Take New England ?14 over San Diego (Sunday 1/20 3:00 PM CBS)
With all of the injuries that San Diego has I?m surprised that New England wasn?t a 20-point favorite. New England beat the Chargers in Week 2 38-14 and I see the same results but a bigger beat down Sunday night. If San Diego struggles with injuries in this game we could see the Patriots winning by 20 points or more. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home playoff games.
3 Unit Play. #306 Take Green Bay ?7 over NY Giants (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)
Brett Favre looks to add another chapter to his legendary career and lead the Green Bay Packers into their 5th Super Bowl on Sunday by winning the NFC championship game against the Giants. It?s so hard for me to pick against Super Favre at home in the cold. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite and the Packers are also 11-3 ATS following a SU win.
NFL NFC-AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS
5 Unit Play. #304 Take Over 46 San Diego at New England (Sunday 1/20 3:00 PM CBS)
I?ve been looking to bet the Over on all New England games since Week 3 so taking the over in this game was pretty easy. New England should be able to score in the high 30?s against San Diego and I?m hoping the Chargers can score in the low 20?s. New England is 9-3 O/U as a home favorite and the Patriots are also 16-6-1 O/U in their last 23 games. San Diego is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games as an underdog.
4 Unit Play. #304 Take New England ?14 over San Diego (Sunday 1/20 3:00 PM CBS)
With all of the injuries that San Diego has I?m surprised that New England wasn?t a 20-point favorite. New England beat the Chargers in Week 2 38-14 and I see the same results but a bigger beat down Sunday night. If San Diego struggles with injuries in this game we could see the Patriots winning by 20 points or more. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home playoff games.
3 Unit Play. #306 Take Green Bay ?7 over NY Giants (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)
Brett Favre looks to add another chapter to his legendary career and lead the Green Bay Packers into their 5th Super Bowl on Sunday by winning the NFC championship game against the Giants. It?s so hard for me to pick against Super Favre at home in the cold. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite and the Packers are also 11-3 ATS following a SU win.
Strike Point Sports Picks For Football
NFL Conference Championship Picks
2-Unit Play. #303 Take San Diego +14 over New England (3 pm)
The Pats have failed to cover their last four games, while San Diego is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win. I think that despite New England's dominance all season, this game will be competitive, mainly because of the pressure the Bolts will apply to Tom Brady. The Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, and in the most important game of the season, they will come to play.
3-Unit Play. Take San Diego/New England Over 47 (3 pm)
There are just too many playmakers in this game for theese two teams not to shoot over the posted total. Tom Brady alone could play a big factor with the air attack, but with San Diego's turnover forcing defense and a special teams unit that is one of the best in the league, we'll see both teams account for 50+. I can definitely see the winner of this game at or above 30 points, and considering we see this being a single digit outcome, the loser will be over 20. Play the over here.
2-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +7 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
Cold weather, yes, and Brett Favre, but if Mike Vick and Atlanta can knock of Green Bay, then so can the red hot road Giants. New York has been outstanding away from Giant Stadium this season, as well as having covered their last four games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven at Lambeau vs. winning road teams, and I think the points will be good here, as New York has a great shot to take this one outright.
1-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +260 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
See above, but there is a lot of value on the Giants here. They enter the NFC championship playing arguably the best football of anyone over the last five or six games. The defense is comes in off a great outing limiting the NFC's top offense in Dallas, and I think they again show up strong against Green Bay. The offense is clicking with a solid balance of run and pass. Play New York small on the moneyline to win outright.
2-Unit Play. Take New York/Green Bay Over 40.5 (6:30 pm)
This one, just like the AFC tilt, will go over its number. I see both teams here hitting for at least 20, while the weather can certainly play a role with favorable field position with turnovers and short punts. I see at least three mistakes via the cold, possible snowy weather. Two quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Eli Manning have shown in recent games they have been real successful down the field. They'll both cash in offensively and be a big reason for this game topping the total in this game.
NFL Conference Championship Picks
2-Unit Play. #303 Take San Diego +14 over New England (3 pm)
The Pats have failed to cover their last four games, while San Diego is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win. I think that despite New England's dominance all season, this game will be competitive, mainly because of the pressure the Bolts will apply to Tom Brady. The Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, and in the most important game of the season, they will come to play.
3-Unit Play. Take San Diego/New England Over 47 (3 pm)
There are just too many playmakers in this game for theese two teams not to shoot over the posted total. Tom Brady alone could play a big factor with the air attack, but with San Diego's turnover forcing defense and a special teams unit that is one of the best in the league, we'll see both teams account for 50+. I can definitely see the winner of this game at or above 30 points, and considering we see this being a single digit outcome, the loser will be over 20. Play the over here.
2-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +7 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
Cold weather, yes, and Brett Favre, but if Mike Vick and Atlanta can knock of Green Bay, then so can the red hot road Giants. New York has been outstanding away from Giant Stadium this season, as well as having covered their last four games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven at Lambeau vs. winning road teams, and I think the points will be good here, as New York has a great shot to take this one outright.
1-Unit Play. #305 Take New York +260 over Green Bay (6:30 pm)
See above, but there is a lot of value on the Giants here. They enter the NFC championship playing arguably the best football of anyone over the last five or six games. The defense is comes in off a great outing limiting the NFC's top offense in Dallas, and I think they again show up strong against Green Bay. The offense is clicking with a solid balance of run and pass. Play New York small on the moneyline to win outright.
2-Unit Play. Take New York/Green Bay Over 40.5 (6:30 pm)
This one, just like the AFC tilt, will go over its number. I see both teams here hitting for at least 20, while the weather can certainly play a role with favorable field position with turnovers and short punts. I see at least three mistakes via the cold, possible snowy weather. Two quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Eli Manning have shown in recent games they have been real successful down the field. They'll both cash in offensively and be a big reason for this game topping the total in this game.
Doc's Sports Picks For Football
5 Unit Play. #4 Take New England -14 over San Diego (Sunday 3:00 pm CBS) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The path to perfection appears to be easy for the Patriots as this will likely be the smallest spread they see for the rest of the season. These two teams have already met once this season and it was no contest, with the Patriots winning 38-14. The Chargers are really banged up with QB Rivers, RB Tomlinson, and TE Gates all not 100%. New England never looks past their opponents and the Chargers have had no recent success against them. QB Brady can move this team up and down the field at will and should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard again. The Patriots set a record for most points scored and most touchdown passes. Jacksonville had a better game plan and still could not stay with them. The Chargers are a warm weather team and will not be used to playing in this type of environment. New England continues to roll and will likely enter the Super Bowl at around a 17 point favorite. New England 38, San Diego 10.
3 Unit Play. #5 Take New York +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 6:30 pm Fox) The Giants have been the best road team in the NFC and much like they did last week by beating Dallas, they will avenge an earlier loss to the Packers in this game. New York has possession receivers and a strong running game and that is a perfect recipe for success when playing in cold weather. The Packers are young and very inexperienced in big games and were fortunate that the Hawks rolled over and died once things starting to change at the end of the first quarter. Favre will be playing on the big stage for the first time in over a decade and expect him to come out and try and do too much, things that have cost him dearly in the past. The Giants have the ability to get pressure with their front four and they will wear down the offensive line of the Packers. New York 24, Green Bay 23.
5 Unit Play. #4 Take New England -14 over San Diego (Sunday 3:00 pm CBS) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The path to perfection appears to be easy for the Patriots as this will likely be the smallest spread they see for the rest of the season. These two teams have already met once this season and it was no contest, with the Patriots winning 38-14. The Chargers are really banged up with QB Rivers, RB Tomlinson, and TE Gates all not 100%. New England never looks past their opponents and the Chargers have had no recent success against them. QB Brady can move this team up and down the field at will and should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard again. The Patriots set a record for most points scored and most touchdown passes. Jacksonville had a better game plan and still could not stay with them. The Chargers are a warm weather team and will not be used to playing in this type of environment. New England continues to roll and will likely enter the Super Bowl at around a 17 point favorite. New England 38, San Diego 10.
3 Unit Play. #5 Take New York +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 6:30 pm Fox) The Giants have been the best road team in the NFC and much like they did last week by beating Dallas, they will avenge an earlier loss to the Packers in this game. New York has possession receivers and a strong running game and that is a perfect recipe for success when playing in cold weather. The Packers are young and very inexperienced in big games and were fortunate that the Hawks rolled over and died once things starting to change at the end of the first quarter. Favre will be playing on the big stage for the first time in over a decade and expect him to come out and try and do too much, things that have cost him dearly in the past. The Giants have the ability to get pressure with their front four and they will wear down the offensive line of the Packers. New York 24, Green Bay 23.
Vegas Hot Sheet
Vegas Hot Sheet
Premium Picks:
1) New England -13.5
2) Green Bay -7
Silver Rated Picks:
1) SD/NE over 46
2) GB/NYG under 40.5
Vegas Hot Sheet
Premium Picks:
1) New England -13.5
2) Green Bay -7
Silver Rated Picks:
1) SD/NE over 46
2) GB/NYG under 40.5
Burns NFL Playoff TOY
Purchased Premium Picks
Sun, 01/20/08 - 6:30 PM Ben Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet306 GBP / 305 NYG Under 40.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Giants to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Green Bay saw last week's game here vs. Seattle finish above the total. However, that was due in large part to a couple of turnovers leading to easy touchdowns and the game taking on a different "feel" as a result. Conversely, the Giants have seen both of their playoff games finish below the total. Having outplayed Brad Johhsnon and Tony Romo and having avoided costly mistakes, Eli Manning continues to get the majority of his team's accolades. Its been the Giants' defense which has quietly carried the load though. After giving up an early touchdown in their opener against Tampa, the Giants' defense stiffened and blanked the Bucs through the second and third quarters, eventually surrendering only 14 points. It was more of the same against the Cowboys last week. After surrendering 14 points in the first half, the Giants' defense "dug deep" and held the high-scoring Cowboys to a mere three points in the second half, including none in the second half. That's pretty impressive considering that the Cowboys scored more points than any other team in the NFC this season, second only to the Patriots in the entire league. That low-scoring result marked fourth time in their past seven games that the Giants had held an opponent to 17 points or less. Only one of those seven opponents scored more than 22 points, and that was the Patriots in a "meaningless" game. Five of the seven games produced 38 combined points or less. As is the case in New York, the quarterback gets the bulk of the attention in Green Bay. While Favre has certainly had an impressive season, its the defense, which ranks second in the NFC in terms of points allowed, which has quietly gotten the job done. Indeed, the Packers are allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Giants last visited Lambeau in 2004, scoring a 14-7 upset. Their previous visit here was way back in 1995 when they combined with the Packers for just 20 points. On what is expected to be an extremely cold Sunday, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. *Playoff TOY
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Purchased Premium Picks
Sun, 01/20/08 - 6:30 PM Ben Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet306 GBP / 305 NYG Under 40.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Giants to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Green Bay saw last week's game here vs. Seattle finish above the total. However, that was due in large part to a couple of turnovers leading to easy touchdowns and the game taking on a different "feel" as a result. Conversely, the Giants have seen both of their playoff games finish below the total. Having outplayed Brad Johhsnon and Tony Romo and having avoided costly mistakes, Eli Manning continues to get the majority of his team's accolades. Its been the Giants' defense which has quietly carried the load though. After giving up an early touchdown in their opener against Tampa, the Giants' defense stiffened and blanked the Bucs through the second and third quarters, eventually surrendering only 14 points. It was more of the same against the Cowboys last week. After surrendering 14 points in the first half, the Giants' defense "dug deep" and held the high-scoring Cowboys to a mere three points in the second half, including none in the second half. That's pretty impressive considering that the Cowboys scored more points than any other team in the NFC this season, second only to the Patriots in the entire league. That low-scoring result marked fourth time in their past seven games that the Giants had held an opponent to 17 points or less. Only one of those seven opponents scored more than 22 points, and that was the Patriots in a "meaningless" game. Five of the seven games produced 38 combined points or less. As is the case in New York, the quarterback gets the bulk of the attention in Green Bay. While Favre has certainly had an impressive season, its the defense, which ranks second in the NFC in terms of points allowed, which has quietly gotten the job done. Indeed, the Packers are allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Giants last visited Lambeau in 2004, scoring a 14-7 upset. Their previous visit here was way back in 1995 when they combined with the Packers for just 20 points. On what is expected to be an extremely cold Sunday, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. *Playoff TOY
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Mighty ! Quinn
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Sd +14
Giants +7
3~1 last week
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Sd +14
Giants +7
3~1 last week
Vegas Vic
(3-1 last week, season record:130-121, he picks every game)--best bets (10-9)
Chargers (+14)
New York Football Giants (+7)
(3-1 last week, season record:130-121, he picks every game)--best bets (10-9)
Chargers (+14)
New York Football Giants (+7)
