THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (13-5 SU and ATS) at New England (17-0, 10-7 ATS)
The third-seeded Chargers, coming off last week?s stunning victory in Indianapolis, travel cross-country and into expected cold conditions as they take their second shot this season at the infallible Patriots, with the winner advancing to Super Bowl XLII.
San Diego upset the defending Super Bowl champion Colts 28-24 last Sunday as a 10?-point road underdog, moving to a glistening 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games. The Chargers, who are back in the title game for the first time since beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the 1994 season, pulled off the shocker minus three key players for all or part of the second half ? QB Philip Rivers (knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and FB Lorenzo Neal (ankle).
Rivers was having a huge game before exiting at the end of the third quarter after his screen pass to Darren Sproles went 56 yards for a TD. Rivers finished 14 of 19 for 264 yards with three TDs and one INT, and backup Billy Volek finished up, leading an eight-play, 78-yard drive for the winning TD in the fourth quarter. Other than the injuries, the only negative for the Chargers was they let the Colts pile up 446 total yards, including 402 through the air from Peyton Manning (3 TDs). But San Diego forced three turnovers, including intercepting Manning twice.
New England fended off fifth-seeded Jacksonville 31-20 last Saturday, but failed to cash as a 13?-point chalk in Foxboro, falling to 0-4 ATS in its last four starts and 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The Patriots have become regulars in the AFC championship game, as this is their fourth appearance in the last five years. With a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, New England is 5-1 SU and ATS in franchise history.
QB Tom Brady was practically flawless versus Jacksonville, going 26 of 28 for 264 yards with three TDs and no turnovers, and eight Patriots had at least one catch ? with record-setting wideout Randy Moss getting just one. RB Laurence Maroney racked up 122 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries.
Over the past three seasons, five of the six AFC and NFC championship games were decided by 14 or more points, and four of the last five AFC title games have had double-digit margins of victory ? the lone exception being Indy?s 38-34 home win over New England last year.
The Chargers improved to 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this year after last week?s upset of the Colts. They also sport a bevy of positive ATS trends, including: 43-20-2 overall, 11-1 against the AFC, 14-3-1 as an underdog, 10-3-2 as a road pup and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of San Diego?s 18 games this season. One key negative note for San Diego: Despite the win over the Colts, it is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a ?dog of more than 10 points.
The Patriots also hold several positive ATS trends: 7-4 at home overall, 8-3-1 in home playoff games, 13-6-2 in January, 13-6 against the AFC and 41-20-3 against teams with a winning record. However, more recently, New England is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven starts, all as a double-digit chalk.
In a much-hyped Week 2 meeting back in September, the Pats drilled the Chargers 38-14 as a 3?-point home favorite. Brady threw for 279 yards and three TDs, with one INT, and New England finished with a 407-201 edge in total yardage, including 144-52 on the ground. In the defeat, Tomlinson mustered just 43 yards on 18 carries, and Rivers was 19 of 30 for 179 yards with two TDs and two INTs, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These two teams also met in last year?s divisional round, with the fourth-seeded Patriots rallying to beat the top-seeded Chargers 24-21 as a five-point road underdog. Holding a 21-13 fourth-quarter lead, San Diego?s Marlon McCree got a would-be game-clinching INT of Brady, but McCree fumbled the ball away on the play. Given new life, Brady tied it with a TD pass and 2-point conversion with less than five minutes left, then drove the Patriots into position for a game-winning field goal with 1:14 remaining.
In the regular season, San Diego?s offense finished among the top 10 in scoring (25.8, 5th) and rushing (127.4, 7th), but was just 20th in total yards (315.2). However, the Chargers have outgained seven of their last nine opponents, and they?re outscoring foes by more than 15 points per game (28.5-13.1) during their eight-game winning streak.
Defensively, San Diego allowed just 17.8 points per game in the regular season and recorded 42 sacks, with both figures ranking fifth in the NFL. Perhaps the most telling stat for San Diego, though, was its stunning plus-24 turnover differential, which led the league. The Chargers also had an NFL-best 30 INTs, paced by Antonio Cromartie?s league-leading 10 picks. A Cromartie pick last week helped San Diego win the turnover battle 3-1, and the Bolts are plus-3 in turnover margin in the postseason.
New England set a single-season scoring record this year, averaging 36.8 points per game. The Patriots also led the NFL in total offense (411.2 ypg) and passing offense (295.7 ypg). Brady finished with 4,806 yards passing (68.9 completion percentage), Moss had 1,493 receiving yards (15.2 per catch), Welker had 1,175 receiving yards (10.5 ypc), and RB Laurence Maroney had 835 rushing yards (4.5 per carry).
Defensively, the Pats ranked fourth in both points allowed (17.1) and total yards allowed (288.3). They also had the league?s third-best turnover ratio at plus-16, and they won the turnover battle last week against the Jags, 2-0.
Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, home teams are 4-4 SU and ATS. Also, favorites are just 3-5 ATS, with double-digit favorites going 1-2 ATS. However, dating all the way to 1983, home favorites in the conference championship games are 26-16 ATS. In that same span, though, double-digit favorites are just 3-7 ATS.
Visitors have covered 18 of the 34 conference title games since 1990, and of the 11 double-digit victories since then, six have come from the visiting team.
In last year?s conference championship games, both home teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) won and covered as a favorite. Despite those results, the underdog is still 11-7 SU in the last 18 championship games dating to 1998, while road teams are 10-8 SU during that stretch. Also, last year ended a 10-year string in which at least one visitor had won outright in the conference championship round.
The over is 5-3 in the playoffs so far (3-1 last week), with last week?s Jags-Patriots matchup and Chargers-Colts contest both topping the total. Also, both of last year?s conference championship games went over, and the over is 3-0 in the last three AFC title matchups.
For New England, the over is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 8-3-1 as a home chalk and 15-6-1 following a SU win. For San Diego, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-1-2 on the highway and 4-1 as a ?dog of more than 10 points. In this series, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Foxboro.
Conversely, the under is 9-3 in the Pats? last 12 playoff contests and 5-1 in the Chargers? last six January games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
N.Y. Giants (12-6 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (14-3, 13-3-1 ATS)
The fifth-seeded Giants take their incredible road show to frigid Lambeau Field for a matchup against the second-seeded Packers in the NFC championship game.
New York held Dallas? high-octane offense in check to claim a 21-17 divisional-round victory last week as a seven-point road underdog. It was the Giants? ninth straight road win, and they?ve cashed in eight of those contests. New York is back in the NFC championship game for the first time since routing the Vikings 41-0 in the 2000 season. The Giants are 3-0 SU and ATS in championship games, outscoring their foes by a composite 73-13 margin.
The Giants got outgained 336-230 in Dallas, including 154-90 on the ground, and they lost the time-of-possession battle by 13 minutes (36:30 to 23:30). But QB Eli Manning had another solid, if not spectacular, effort in going 12 of 18 for 163 yards and two TDs with no turnovers, and New York forced Dallas? lone turnover when R.W. McQuarters picked off Tony Romo in the end zone in the final minute to seal it. Also, the Giants were aided by 11 Dallas penalties for 84 yards, including two fouls that helped New York record its two first-half TDs.
Green Bay overcame a brutal snowstorm and a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and destroyed Seattle 42-20 as an eight-point home favorite, moving to 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The Packers have reached the precipice of the Super Bowl for the first time since playing in three straight NFC championship games from 1995-97, going 2-1 SU and ATS (2-0 SU and ATS as a favorite).
Packers RB Ryan Grant fumbled twice on Green Bay?s first two possessions last week, and Seattle turned them into two quick touchdowns barely four minutes into the game. From there, though, Grant responded in a big way, finishing with 201 rushing yards and three TDs on 27 carries. While Grant carried the bulk of the load in the snow, QB Brett Favre was an efficient 18 of 23 for 173 yards and another three TDs, and the Pack defense held the 2005 NFC champs to just 200 total yards, including 28 rushing yards.
The Giants and Packers also met in Week 2, with the Packers doling out a 35-13 beating at the Meadowlands as a one-point underdog. That game was played in 64-degree weather, which will be about 60 degrees warmer than what?s expected for this matchup. Favre had a big day, going 29 of 38 for 286 yards with three TDs and one INT. Green Bay won the time-of-possession battle by nearly nine minutes and the turnover battle 2-1. In defeat, Manning was 16 of 29 for 211 yards with one TD and one INT, and he led only one second-half scoring drive (a third-quarter field goal).
New York and Green Bay have only met two other times this decade ? in 2002 and 2004 ? and as was the case this year, the road team won and covered both meetings.
Since the loss to Green Bay, the Giants are 12-4 SU and ATS, with the winner covering the pointspread in 14 of those 16 games. In fact, the winner is 16-2 ATS in New York?s 18 games this year and 16-0-1 ATS in Packers games.
The Giants are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 9-3 against the NFC, 7-2 in the playoffs, 5-1 as a playoff underdog and 5-1 in January.
The Packers are 8-1 at Lambeau this season (7-1-1 ATS), including a current 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak. Additionally, they are on ATS runs of 8-2-1 as a favorite, 9-1-1 in non-division play, 11-3 after a SU win and 9-3 after a spread-cover. Green Bay is also 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 starts overall and 14-4-2 ATS in its last 20 against the NFC. Finally, dating to last December, the Packers are 18-3 SU (16-4-1 ATS). On the negative side, despite last week?s win over the Seahawks, the Packers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a playoff favorite.
The last five NFC championship games have been won by double digits, including four by more than 17 points, with the home team 3-2 SU and ATS during this stretch. Last year, host Chicago pounded New Orleans 39-14 as a 2?-point chalk.
Teams favored by 7 to 9 points in AFC/NFC finals are a sterling 14-3 ATS since 1970.
In the regular season, New York averaged 23.3 points per game (14th in the league) and 331.4 total yards (16th), but the Giants had the fourth-best rushing attack at 134.2 per game. On defense, the Giants allowed 21.9 points (17th) but just 305.0 total yards (7th) and 97.7 rushing yards (8th). One glaring negative for New York was its minus-9 turnover differential, the worst of any playoff team. But the Giants are plus-4 in the playoffs.
Green Bay?s offense ranked in the top five in total yards (370.7, 2nd), passing yards (270.9, 2nd) and scoring (27.2 points per game, 4th). Defensively, the Packers allowed 313.3 yards (11th) and just 18.2 points per game (tied for 6th), and they finished with a plus-4 turnover differential. However, Green Bay was minus-1 last week.
The over is 2-0-1 in the last three NFC title games. For Green Bay, the over is on streaks of 13-3 overall, including 8-0 in the last eight, 7-0 as a favorite and 7-0 against the NFC.
However, the Giants carry several under trends into this contest, including 8-1 in their last nine roadies, 5-0 against the NFC, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-2 in the playoffs, with both postseason matchups this season staying under the number. The under is also 4-0 for New York in January and 5-0 in its last five against the NFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
