NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY SERVICE THREAD 1/20
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
Stan Sharp
CBB Sides
double-dime bet822 Washington St. -8.5 (-110) vs 821 Oregon
TAKE WASHINGTON ST as STAN'S COLLEGE TV BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
CBB Sides
double-dime bet822 Washington St. -8.5 (-110) vs 821 Oregon
TAKE WASHINGTON ST as STAN'S COLLEGE TV BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
JOE WIZ from NY
1,000,000* Parlay LOCK
GREEN BAY and the OVER
50,000* LOCK on the GB PACKERS on the moneyline
1,000,000* Parlay LOCK
GREEN BAY and the OVER
50,000* LOCK on the GB PACKERS on the moneyline
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
New England -14 over San Diego
I don't know where to start with the Chargers. Last week they played great when Rivers and LT went down, but that was in a dome against a defense that was getting tired. Today they will be in frigid weather playing against the best team in NFL history. We all know New England has to win this game. Its bad for NFL marketing not to have the Patriots in the Super Bowl after this magical season. The Chargers might be without their big NT Jamaal Williams and if not he is not going to be 100%. I look for the Pats to run the ball well in addition to the passing game. Billy Volek will probably start today for the Chargers. If New England gets a big lead LT will be useless and in this weather it could be ugly. The Patriots have not covered a lot while San Diego has covered 8 in a row. Its time for that streak to end. Take New England
Giants +7.5 over Packers
I would not call it an upset if NY won this game, but nobody is give this team a shot. There is something about this team that wont quit and can play from behind. Tom Coughlin looks like one miserable dude, but he has changed his ways with his players and all of a sudden this years team is playing with fire. This Giants team has a lot of guys hungry for a super bowl ring while the Packers are still a young team and have time to grow. Eli Manning has matured a great deal and the running game has been awesome. This Giants team is also protecting the football. The conditions in this game will be very windy which is good for the Giants because Favre struggles in high winds, remember the Chicago game this year? It would be great to see Favre vs Brady in the Super Bowl and it would be the highest rated Super Bowl ever which is great for the NFL, but New York is a high market team and would bring a lot of viewers also. This spread is a little high. Take the GMen.
NFL Football
New England -14 over San Diego
I don't know where to start with the Chargers. Last week they played great when Rivers and LT went down, but that was in a dome against a defense that was getting tired. Today they will be in frigid weather playing against the best team in NFL history. We all know New England has to win this game. Its bad for NFL marketing not to have the Patriots in the Super Bowl after this magical season. The Chargers might be without their big NT Jamaal Williams and if not he is not going to be 100%. I look for the Pats to run the ball well in addition to the passing game. Billy Volek will probably start today for the Chargers. If New England gets a big lead LT will be useless and in this weather it could be ugly. The Patriots have not covered a lot while San Diego has covered 8 in a row. Its time for that streak to end. Take New England
Giants +7.5 over Packers
I would not call it an upset if NY won this game, but nobody is give this team a shot. There is something about this team that wont quit and can play from behind. Tom Coughlin looks like one miserable dude, but he has changed his ways with his players and all of a sudden this years team is playing with fire. This Giants team has a lot of guys hungry for a super bowl ring while the Packers are still a young team and have time to grow. Eli Manning has matured a great deal and the running game has been awesome. This Giants team is also protecting the football. The conditions in this game will be very windy which is good for the Giants because Favre struggles in high winds, remember the Chicago game this year? It would be great to see Favre vs Brady in the Super Bowl and it would be the highest rated Super Bowl ever which is great for the NFL, but New York is a high market team and would bring a lot of viewers also. This spread is a little high. Take the GMen.
"Big AL
At 8 pm, our Revenge Game of the Month is on the Washington State Cougars, who have lost 13 straight games to Oregon since 2002."
Don't you just love sh*t like this. This type of thinking is what gives cappers a bad name.
Just READ his logic. "...WHO HAVE LOST 13 STRAIGHT"...by that logic, Big Al and his bullsh*t "revenge" theory have LOST the last twelve times he picked a team in this series.:mj07:
Now Wash St could win, and very well may, but not because of some bs revenge theory.
What a f'n tool.:142smilie
At 8 pm, our Revenge Game of the Month is on the Washington State Cougars, who have lost 13 straight games to Oregon since 2002."
Don't you just love sh*t like this. This type of thinking is what gives cappers a bad name.
Just READ his logic. "...WHO HAVE LOST 13 STRAIGHT"...by that logic, Big Al and his bullsh*t "revenge" theory have LOST the last twelve times he picked a team in this series.:mj07:
Now Wash St could win, and very well may, but not because of some bs revenge theory.
What a f'n tool.:142smilie
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (13-5 SU and ATS) at New England (17-0, 10-7 ATS)
The third-seeded Chargers, coming off last week?s stunning victory in Indianapolis, travel cross-country and into expected cold conditions as they take their second shot this season at the infallible Patriots, with the winner advancing to Super Bowl XLII.
San Diego upset the defending Super Bowl champion Colts 28-24 last Sunday as a 10?-point road underdog, moving to a glistening 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games. The Chargers, who are back in the title game for the first time since beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the 1994 season, pulled off the shocker minus three key players for all or part of the second half ? QB Philip Rivers (knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and FB Lorenzo Neal (ankle).
Rivers was having a huge game before exiting at the end of the third quarter after his screen pass to Darren Sproles went 56 yards for a TD. Rivers finished 14 of 19 for 264 yards with three TDs and one INT, and backup Billy Volek finished up, leading an eight-play, 78-yard drive for the winning TD in the fourth quarter. Other than the injuries, the only negative for the Chargers was they let the Colts pile up 446 total yards, including 402 through the air from Peyton Manning (3 TDs). But San Diego forced three turnovers, including intercepting Manning twice.
New England fended off fifth-seeded Jacksonville 31-20 last Saturday, but failed to cash as a 13?-point chalk in Foxboro, falling to 0-4 ATS in its last four starts and 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The Patriots have become regulars in the AFC championship game, as this is their fourth appearance in the last five years. With a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, New England is 5-1 SU and ATS in franchise history.
QB Tom Brady was practically flawless versus Jacksonville, going 26 of 28 for 264 yards with three TDs and no turnovers, and eight Patriots had at least one catch ? with record-setting wideout Randy Moss getting just one. RB Laurence Maroney racked up 122 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries.
Over the past three seasons, five of the six AFC and NFC championship games were decided by 14 or more points, and four of the last five AFC title games have had double-digit margins of victory ? the lone exception being Indy?s 38-34 home win over New England last year.
The Chargers improved to 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this year after last week?s upset of the Colts. They also sport a bevy of positive ATS trends, including: 43-20-2 overall, 11-1 against the AFC, 14-3-1 as an underdog, 10-3-2 as a road pup and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of San Diego?s 18 games this season. One key negative note for San Diego: Despite the win over the Colts, it is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a ?dog of more than 10 points.
The Patriots also hold several positive ATS trends: 7-4 at home overall, 8-3-1 in home playoff games, 13-6-2 in January, 13-6 against the AFC and 41-20-3 against teams with a winning record. However, more recently, New England is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven starts, all as a double-digit chalk.
In a much-hyped Week 2 meeting back in September, the Pats drilled the Chargers 38-14 as a 3?-point home favorite. Brady threw for 279 yards and three TDs, with one INT, and New England finished with a 407-201 edge in total yardage, including 144-52 on the ground. In the defeat, Tomlinson mustered just 43 yards on 18 carries, and Rivers was 19 of 30 for 179 yards with two TDs and two INTs, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These two teams also met in last year?s divisional round, with the fourth-seeded Patriots rallying to beat the top-seeded Chargers 24-21 as a five-point road underdog. Holding a 21-13 fourth-quarter lead, San Diego?s Marlon McCree got a would-be game-clinching INT of Brady, but McCree fumbled the ball away on the play. Given new life, Brady tied it with a TD pass and 2-point conversion with less than five minutes left, then drove the Patriots into position for a game-winning field goal with 1:14 remaining.
In the regular season, San Diego?s offense finished among the top 10 in scoring (25.8, 5th) and rushing (127.4, 7th), but was just 20th in total yards (315.2). However, the Chargers have outgained seven of their last nine opponents, and they?re outscoring foes by more than 15 points per game (28.5-13.1) during their eight-game winning streak.
Defensively, San Diego allowed just 17.8 points per game in the regular season and recorded 42 sacks, with both figures ranking fifth in the NFL. Perhaps the most telling stat for San Diego, though, was its stunning plus-24 turnover differential, which led the league. The Chargers also had an NFL-best 30 INTs, paced by Antonio Cromartie?s league-leading 10 picks. A Cromartie pick last week helped San Diego win the turnover battle 3-1, and the Bolts are plus-3 in turnover margin in the postseason.
New England set a single-season scoring record this year, averaging 36.8 points per game. The Patriots also led the NFL in total offense (411.2 ypg) and passing offense (295.7 ypg). Brady finished with 4,806 yards passing (68.9 completion percentage), Moss had 1,493 receiving yards (15.2 per catch), Welker had 1,175 receiving yards (10.5 ypc), and RB Laurence Maroney had 835 rushing yards (4.5 per carry).
Defensively, the Pats ranked fourth in both points allowed (17.1) and total yards allowed (288.3). They also had the league?s third-best turnover ratio at plus-16, and they won the turnover battle last week against the Jags, 2-0.
Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, home teams are 4-4 SU and ATS. Also, favorites are just 3-5 ATS, with double-digit favorites going 1-2 ATS. However, dating all the way to 1983, home favorites in the conference championship games are 26-16 ATS. In that same span, though, double-digit favorites are just 3-7 ATS.
Visitors have covered 18 of the 34 conference title games since 1990, and of the 11 double-digit victories since then, six have come from the visiting team.
In last year?s conference championship games, both home teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) won and covered as a favorite. Despite those results, the underdog is still 11-7 SU in the last 18 championship games dating to 1998, while road teams are 10-8 SU during that stretch. Also, last year ended a 10-year string in which at least one visitor had won outright in the conference championship round.
The over is 5-3 in the playoffs so far (3-1 last week), with last week?s Jags-Patriots matchup and Chargers-Colts contest both topping the total. Also, both of last year?s conference championship games went over, and the over is 3-0 in the last three AFC title matchups.
For New England, the over is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 8-3-1 as a home chalk and 15-6-1 following a SU win. For San Diego, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-1-2 on the highway and 4-1 as a ?dog of more than 10 points. In this series, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Foxboro.
Conversely, the under is 9-3 in the Pats? last 12 playoff contests and 5-1 in the Chargers? last six January games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
N.Y. Giants (12-6 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (14-3, 13-3-1 ATS)
The fifth-seeded Giants take their incredible road show to frigid Lambeau Field for a matchup against the second-seeded Packers in the NFC championship game.
New York held Dallas? high-octane offense in check to claim a 21-17 divisional-round victory last week as a seven-point road underdog. It was the Giants? ninth straight road win, and they?ve cashed in eight of those contests. New York is back in the NFC championship game for the first time since routing the Vikings 41-0 in the 2000 season. The Giants are 3-0 SU and ATS in championship games, outscoring their foes by a composite 73-13 margin.
The Giants got outgained 336-230 in Dallas, including 154-90 on the ground, and they lost the time-of-possession battle by 13 minutes (36:30 to 23:30). But QB Eli Manning had another solid, if not spectacular, effort in going 12 of 18 for 163 yards and two TDs with no turnovers, and New York forced Dallas? lone turnover when R.W. McQuarters picked off Tony Romo in the end zone in the final minute to seal it. Also, the Giants were aided by 11 Dallas penalties for 84 yards, including two fouls that helped New York record its two first-half TDs.
Green Bay overcame a brutal snowstorm and a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and destroyed Seattle 42-20 as an eight-point home favorite, moving to 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The Packers have reached the precipice of the Super Bowl for the first time since playing in three straight NFC championship games from 1995-97, going 2-1 SU and ATS (2-0 SU and ATS as a favorite).
Packers RB Ryan Grant fumbled twice on Green Bay?s first two possessions last week, and Seattle turned them into two quick touchdowns barely four minutes into the game. From there, though, Grant responded in a big way, finishing with 201 rushing yards and three TDs on 27 carries. While Grant carried the bulk of the load in the snow, QB Brett Favre was an efficient 18 of 23 for 173 yards and another three TDs, and the Pack defense held the 2005 NFC champs to just 200 total yards, including 28 rushing yards.
The Giants and Packers also met in Week 2, with the Packers doling out a 35-13 beating at the Meadowlands as a one-point underdog. That game was played in 64-degree weather, which will be about 60 degrees warmer than what?s expected for this matchup. Favre had a big day, going 29 of 38 for 286 yards with three TDs and one INT. Green Bay won the time-of-possession battle by nearly nine minutes and the turnover battle 2-1. In defeat, Manning was 16 of 29 for 211 yards with one TD and one INT, and he led only one second-half scoring drive (a third-quarter field goal).
New York and Green Bay have only met two other times this decade ? in 2002 and 2004 ? and as was the case this year, the road team won and covered both meetings.
Since the loss to Green Bay, the Giants are 12-4 SU and ATS, with the winner covering the pointspread in 14 of those 16 games. In fact, the winner is 16-2 ATS in New York?s 18 games this year and 16-0-1 ATS in Packers games.
The Giants are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 9-3 against the NFC, 7-2 in the playoffs, 5-1 as a playoff underdog and 5-1 in January.
The Packers are 8-1 at Lambeau this season (7-1-1 ATS), including a current 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak. Additionally, they are on ATS runs of 8-2-1 as a favorite, 9-1-1 in non-division play, 11-3 after a SU win and 9-3 after a spread-cover. Green Bay is also 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 starts overall and 14-4-2 ATS in its last 20 against the NFC. Finally, dating to last December, the Packers are 18-3 SU (16-4-1 ATS). On the negative side, despite last week?s win over the Seahawks, the Packers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a playoff favorite.
The last five NFC championship games have been won by double digits, including four by more than 17 points, with the home team 3-2 SU and ATS during this stretch. Last year, host Chicago pounded New Orleans 39-14 as a 2?-point chalk.
Teams favored by 7 to 9 points in AFC/NFC finals are a sterling 14-3 ATS since 1970.
In the regular season, New York averaged 23.3 points per game (14th in the league) and 331.4 total yards (16th), but the Giants had the fourth-best rushing attack at 134.2 per game. On defense, the Giants allowed 21.9 points (17th) but just 305.0 total yards (7th) and 97.7 rushing yards (8th). One glaring negative for New York was its minus-9 turnover differential, the worst of any playoff team. But the Giants are plus-4 in the playoffs.
Green Bay?s offense ranked in the top five in total yards (370.7, 2nd), passing yards (270.9, 2nd) and scoring (27.2 points per game, 4th). Defensively, the Packers allowed 313.3 yards (11th) and just 18.2 points per game (tied for 6th), and they finished with a plus-4 turnover differential. However, Green Bay was minus-1 last week.
The over is 2-0-1 in the last three NFC title games. For Green Bay, the over is on streaks of 13-3 overall, including 8-0 in the last eight, 7-0 as a favorite and 7-0 against the NFC.
However, the Giants carry several under trends into this contest, including 8-1 in their last nine roadies, 5-0 against the NFC, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-2 in the playoffs, with both postseason matchups this season staying under the number. The under is also 4-0 for New York in January and 5-0 in its last five against the NFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
NFL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (13-5 SU and ATS) at New England (17-0, 10-7 ATS)
The third-seeded Chargers, coming off last week?s stunning victory in Indianapolis, travel cross-country and into expected cold conditions as they take their second shot this season at the infallible Patriots, with the winner advancing to Super Bowl XLII.
San Diego upset the defending Super Bowl champion Colts 28-24 last Sunday as a 10?-point road underdog, moving to a glistening 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games. The Chargers, who are back in the title game for the first time since beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the 1994 season, pulled off the shocker minus three key players for all or part of the second half ? QB Philip Rivers (knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and FB Lorenzo Neal (ankle).
Rivers was having a huge game before exiting at the end of the third quarter after his screen pass to Darren Sproles went 56 yards for a TD. Rivers finished 14 of 19 for 264 yards with three TDs and one INT, and backup Billy Volek finished up, leading an eight-play, 78-yard drive for the winning TD in the fourth quarter. Other than the injuries, the only negative for the Chargers was they let the Colts pile up 446 total yards, including 402 through the air from Peyton Manning (3 TDs). But San Diego forced three turnovers, including intercepting Manning twice.
New England fended off fifth-seeded Jacksonville 31-20 last Saturday, but failed to cash as a 13?-point chalk in Foxboro, falling to 0-4 ATS in its last four starts and 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The Patriots have become regulars in the AFC championship game, as this is their fourth appearance in the last five years. With a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, New England is 5-1 SU and ATS in franchise history.
QB Tom Brady was practically flawless versus Jacksonville, going 26 of 28 for 264 yards with three TDs and no turnovers, and eight Patriots had at least one catch ? with record-setting wideout Randy Moss getting just one. RB Laurence Maroney racked up 122 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries.
Over the past three seasons, five of the six AFC and NFC championship games were decided by 14 or more points, and four of the last five AFC title games have had double-digit margins of victory ? the lone exception being Indy?s 38-34 home win over New England last year.
The Chargers improved to 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this year after last week?s upset of the Colts. They also sport a bevy of positive ATS trends, including: 43-20-2 overall, 11-1 against the AFC, 14-3-1 as an underdog, 10-3-2 as a road pup and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of San Diego?s 18 games this season. One key negative note for San Diego: Despite the win over the Colts, it is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a ?dog of more than 10 points.
The Patriots also hold several positive ATS trends: 7-4 at home overall, 8-3-1 in home playoff games, 13-6-2 in January, 13-6 against the AFC and 41-20-3 against teams with a winning record. However, more recently, New England is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven starts, all as a double-digit chalk.
In a much-hyped Week 2 meeting back in September, the Pats drilled the Chargers 38-14 as a 3?-point home favorite. Brady threw for 279 yards and three TDs, with one INT, and New England finished with a 407-201 edge in total yardage, including 144-52 on the ground. In the defeat, Tomlinson mustered just 43 yards on 18 carries, and Rivers was 19 of 30 for 179 yards with two TDs and two INTs, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These two teams also met in last year?s divisional round, with the fourth-seeded Patriots rallying to beat the top-seeded Chargers 24-21 as a five-point road underdog. Holding a 21-13 fourth-quarter lead, San Diego?s Marlon McCree got a would-be game-clinching INT of Brady, but McCree fumbled the ball away on the play. Given new life, Brady tied it with a TD pass and 2-point conversion with less than five minutes left, then drove the Patriots into position for a game-winning field goal with 1:14 remaining.
In the regular season, San Diego?s offense finished among the top 10 in scoring (25.8, 5th) and rushing (127.4, 7th), but was just 20th in total yards (315.2). However, the Chargers have outgained seven of their last nine opponents, and they?re outscoring foes by more than 15 points per game (28.5-13.1) during their eight-game winning streak.
Defensively, San Diego allowed just 17.8 points per game in the regular season and recorded 42 sacks, with both figures ranking fifth in the NFL. Perhaps the most telling stat for San Diego, though, was its stunning plus-24 turnover differential, which led the league. The Chargers also had an NFL-best 30 INTs, paced by Antonio Cromartie?s league-leading 10 picks. A Cromartie pick last week helped San Diego win the turnover battle 3-1, and the Bolts are plus-3 in turnover margin in the postseason.
New England set a single-season scoring record this year, averaging 36.8 points per game. The Patriots also led the NFL in total offense (411.2 ypg) and passing offense (295.7 ypg). Brady finished with 4,806 yards passing (68.9 completion percentage), Moss had 1,493 receiving yards (15.2 per catch), Welker had 1,175 receiving yards (10.5 ypc), and RB Laurence Maroney had 835 rushing yards (4.5 per carry).
Defensively, the Pats ranked fourth in both points allowed (17.1) and total yards allowed (288.3). They also had the league?s third-best turnover ratio at plus-16, and they won the turnover battle last week against the Jags, 2-0.
Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, home teams are 4-4 SU and ATS. Also, favorites are just 3-5 ATS, with double-digit favorites going 1-2 ATS. However, dating all the way to 1983, home favorites in the conference championship games are 26-16 ATS. In that same span, though, double-digit favorites are just 3-7 ATS.
Visitors have covered 18 of the 34 conference title games since 1990, and of the 11 double-digit victories since then, six have come from the visiting team.
In last year?s conference championship games, both home teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) won and covered as a favorite. Despite those results, the underdog is still 11-7 SU in the last 18 championship games dating to 1998, while road teams are 10-8 SU during that stretch. Also, last year ended a 10-year string in which at least one visitor had won outright in the conference championship round.
The over is 5-3 in the playoffs so far (3-1 last week), with last week?s Jags-Patriots matchup and Chargers-Colts contest both topping the total. Also, both of last year?s conference championship games went over, and the over is 3-0 in the last three AFC title matchups.
For New England, the over is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 8-3-1 as a home chalk and 15-6-1 following a SU win. For San Diego, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-1-2 on the highway and 4-1 as a ?dog of more than 10 points. In this series, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Foxboro.
Conversely, the under is 9-3 in the Pats? last 12 playoff contests and 5-1 in the Chargers? last six January games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
N.Y. Giants (12-6 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (14-3, 13-3-1 ATS)
The fifth-seeded Giants take their incredible road show to frigid Lambeau Field for a matchup against the second-seeded Packers in the NFC championship game.
New York held Dallas? high-octane offense in check to claim a 21-17 divisional-round victory last week as a seven-point road underdog. It was the Giants? ninth straight road win, and they?ve cashed in eight of those contests. New York is back in the NFC championship game for the first time since routing the Vikings 41-0 in the 2000 season. The Giants are 3-0 SU and ATS in championship games, outscoring their foes by a composite 73-13 margin.
The Giants got outgained 336-230 in Dallas, including 154-90 on the ground, and they lost the time-of-possession battle by 13 minutes (36:30 to 23:30). But QB Eli Manning had another solid, if not spectacular, effort in going 12 of 18 for 163 yards and two TDs with no turnovers, and New York forced Dallas? lone turnover when R.W. McQuarters picked off Tony Romo in the end zone in the final minute to seal it. Also, the Giants were aided by 11 Dallas penalties for 84 yards, including two fouls that helped New York record its two first-half TDs.
Green Bay overcame a brutal snowstorm and a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and destroyed Seattle 42-20 as an eight-point home favorite, moving to 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The Packers have reached the precipice of the Super Bowl for the first time since playing in three straight NFC championship games from 1995-97, going 2-1 SU and ATS (2-0 SU and ATS as a favorite).
Packers RB Ryan Grant fumbled twice on Green Bay?s first two possessions last week, and Seattle turned them into two quick touchdowns barely four minutes into the game. From there, though, Grant responded in a big way, finishing with 201 rushing yards and three TDs on 27 carries. While Grant carried the bulk of the load in the snow, QB Brett Favre was an efficient 18 of 23 for 173 yards and another three TDs, and the Pack defense held the 2005 NFC champs to just 200 total yards, including 28 rushing yards.
The Giants and Packers also met in Week 2, with the Packers doling out a 35-13 beating at the Meadowlands as a one-point underdog. That game was played in 64-degree weather, which will be about 60 degrees warmer than what?s expected for this matchup. Favre had a big day, going 29 of 38 for 286 yards with three TDs and one INT. Green Bay won the time-of-possession battle by nearly nine minutes and the turnover battle 2-1. In defeat, Manning was 16 of 29 for 211 yards with one TD and one INT, and he led only one second-half scoring drive (a third-quarter field goal).
New York and Green Bay have only met two other times this decade ? in 2002 and 2004 ? and as was the case this year, the road team won and covered both meetings.
Since the loss to Green Bay, the Giants are 12-4 SU and ATS, with the winner covering the pointspread in 14 of those 16 games. In fact, the winner is 16-2 ATS in New York?s 18 games this year and 16-0-1 ATS in Packers games.
The Giants are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 9-3 against the NFC, 7-2 in the playoffs, 5-1 as a playoff underdog and 5-1 in January.
The Packers are 8-1 at Lambeau this season (7-1-1 ATS), including a current 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak. Additionally, they are on ATS runs of 8-2-1 as a favorite, 9-1-1 in non-division play, 11-3 after a SU win and 9-3 after a spread-cover. Green Bay is also 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 starts overall and 14-4-2 ATS in its last 20 against the NFC. Finally, dating to last December, the Packers are 18-3 SU (16-4-1 ATS). On the negative side, despite last week?s win over the Seahawks, the Packers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a playoff favorite.
The last five NFC championship games have been won by double digits, including four by more than 17 points, with the home team 3-2 SU and ATS during this stretch. Last year, host Chicago pounded New Orleans 39-14 as a 2?-point chalk.
Teams favored by 7 to 9 points in AFC/NFC finals are a sterling 14-3 ATS since 1970.
In the regular season, New York averaged 23.3 points per game (14th in the league) and 331.4 total yards (16th), but the Giants had the fourth-best rushing attack at 134.2 per game. On defense, the Giants allowed 21.9 points (17th) but just 305.0 total yards (7th) and 97.7 rushing yards (8th). One glaring negative for New York was its minus-9 turnover differential, the worst of any playoff team. But the Giants are plus-4 in the playoffs.
Green Bay?s offense ranked in the top five in total yards (370.7, 2nd), passing yards (270.9, 2nd) and scoring (27.2 points per game, 4th). Defensively, the Packers allowed 313.3 yards (11th) and just 18.2 points per game (tied for 6th), and they finished with a plus-4 turnover differential. However, Green Bay was minus-1 last week.
The over is 2-0-1 in the last three NFC title games. For Green Bay, the over is on streaks of 13-3 overall, including 8-0 in the last eight, 7-0 as a favorite and 7-0 against the NFC.
However, the Giants carry several under trends into this contest, including 8-1 in their last nine roadies, 5-0 against the NFC, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-2 in the playoffs, with both postseason matchups this season staying under the number. The under is also 4-0 for New York in January and 5-0 in its last five against the NFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
david page
Sun, January 20th 2008 03:00:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers 0
0
New England Patriots -14 (-103)
Sun, January 20th 2008 06:30:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL Green Bay Packers
New York Giants 0
0
New York Giants +7.5 (-105)
Sun, January 20th 2008 06:30:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL Green Bay Packers
New York Giants 0
0
Over 41 (-105)
Sun, January 20th 2008 03:00:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers 0
0
New England Patriots -14 (-103)
Sun, January 20th 2008 06:30:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL Green Bay Packers
New York Giants 0
0
New York Giants +7.5 (-105)
Sun, January 20th 2008 06:30:00 PM Game Analysis
NFL Green Bay Packers
New York Giants 0
0
Over 41 (-105)
LARRY NESS
My 20* Championship GOY is on the GB Packers at 6:30 ET.
The last time these two storied NFL franchises met in the playoffs was in the 1962 NFL Championship Game. Green Bay was coached by Vince Lombardi and its QB was Bart Starr, while New York's head coach was Allie Sherman and its QB, the late-YA Title. The Packers won that game 16-7 in New York and will win again here, only the score WON'T be that close this time around. Congrats to the Giants for their wins over the Buccs (a fraud!) and Cowboys (finished year on an 0-5 ATS run!) on the road but now they'll have to win in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this year. Not only are they playing their third straight playoff game on the road but it's their SIXTH road game in their last eight games. Yes, I realize the Giants have won NINE straight road games (includes neutral site win in London) but am I supposed to believe they have an ADVANTAGE playing in Lambeau? Over Green Bay's last five home games, the Pack have won by margins of 34, 14, 31, 21 and 22 points! History shows that NINE teams have attempted to win a third straight playoff game on the road since the Wild Card round was added in 1978. Just two teams have completed the 'road trifecta' and made it to the Super Bowl The Pats in '85 and the Steelers in '05. Only ONE of the seven SU losers (the '95 Colts) 'covered' in their title game loss, as the other six games were decided by 29, 14, 7, 27, 14 and 20 points! That's just one game decided by less than 14 points, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. Let's take a close look at the Giants. Eli Manning owns a career QB rating of 73.4 over 57 regular season games. In Week 17 against the Pats, he threw for 251 yards and four TDs with a QB rating of 118.6. In New York's two playoff wins, he's only threw for 185 and 163 yards but he's got four TDPs and zero INTs, plus QB ratings of 117.1 and 132.4. That's a three-game run in which his QB rating is almost 50 points better than his career average, while he's completed 70.1 percent of his throws with an 8-1 ratio. His career completion percentage is just 54.7 and his TD-to-INT ratio is 77-78. So just who is this guy who has been playing QB for the Giants these last three weeks? Green Bay's D allowed just 11.4 PPG at home over its final five games and after handing Seattle 14 points LW, held the Seahawks to just 150 yards (and two FGs) on their final 10 possessions! Green Bay owns two "shut-down" CBs in Harris and Woodson and on the year, allowed opposing QBs a rating of 75.6 (very similar to the 'real' Eli's career rating!). I haven't even mentioned that TE Shockey is out, Burress (one catch for five yards LW) is still nowhere near 100% or that the Giants have averaged just 3.6 YPC rushing in the two playoff wins, with just one TD. By the way, Green Bay allowed just six rushing TDs this season, tying Pittsburgh for the NFL-low. I haven't even spent much time on Favre and the GB offense, one which has scored 31 points or more in EIGHT of its last 10 games (Giants have topped 24 points just two times in their last 11). Favre stopped forcing things this year and began letting his teammates "make plays" and it turns out he's got a deep group of very good receivers and it won't hurt here, that the Giants' secondary is battered and vulnerable. Then of course there's RB Ryan Grant, who has just been UNBELIEVABLE. He averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games and then last week....Well you KNOW what he did! Championship GOY 20* GB Packers.
Good Luck...Larry
My 20* Championship GOY is on the GB Packers at 6:30 ET.
The last time these two storied NFL franchises met in the playoffs was in the 1962 NFL Championship Game. Green Bay was coached by Vince Lombardi and its QB was Bart Starr, while New York's head coach was Allie Sherman and its QB, the late-YA Title. The Packers won that game 16-7 in New York and will win again here, only the score WON'T be that close this time around. Congrats to the Giants for their wins over the Buccs (a fraud!) and Cowboys (finished year on an 0-5 ATS run!) on the road but now they'll have to win in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this year. Not only are they playing their third straight playoff game on the road but it's their SIXTH road game in their last eight games. Yes, I realize the Giants have won NINE straight road games (includes neutral site win in London) but am I supposed to believe they have an ADVANTAGE playing in Lambeau? Over Green Bay's last five home games, the Pack have won by margins of 34, 14, 31, 21 and 22 points! History shows that NINE teams have attempted to win a third straight playoff game on the road since the Wild Card round was added in 1978. Just two teams have completed the 'road trifecta' and made it to the Super Bowl The Pats in '85 and the Steelers in '05. Only ONE of the seven SU losers (the '95 Colts) 'covered' in their title game loss, as the other six games were decided by 29, 14, 7, 27, 14 and 20 points! That's just one game decided by less than 14 points, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. Let's take a close look at the Giants. Eli Manning owns a career QB rating of 73.4 over 57 regular season games. In Week 17 against the Pats, he threw for 251 yards and four TDs with a QB rating of 118.6. In New York's two playoff wins, he's only threw for 185 and 163 yards but he's got four TDPs and zero INTs, plus QB ratings of 117.1 and 132.4. That's a three-game run in which his QB rating is almost 50 points better than his career average, while he's completed 70.1 percent of his throws with an 8-1 ratio. His career completion percentage is just 54.7 and his TD-to-INT ratio is 77-78. So just who is this guy who has been playing QB for the Giants these last three weeks? Green Bay's D allowed just 11.4 PPG at home over its final five games and after handing Seattle 14 points LW, held the Seahawks to just 150 yards (and two FGs) on their final 10 possessions! Green Bay owns two "shut-down" CBs in Harris and Woodson and on the year, allowed opposing QBs a rating of 75.6 (very similar to the 'real' Eli's career rating!). I haven't even mentioned that TE Shockey is out, Burress (one catch for five yards LW) is still nowhere near 100% or that the Giants have averaged just 3.6 YPC rushing in the two playoff wins, with just one TD. By the way, Green Bay allowed just six rushing TDs this season, tying Pittsburgh for the NFL-low. I haven't even spent much time on Favre and the GB offense, one which has scored 31 points or more in EIGHT of its last 10 games (Giants have topped 24 points just two times in their last 11). Favre stopped forcing things this year and began letting his teammates "make plays" and it turns out he's got a deep group of very good receivers and it won't hurt here, that the Giants' secondary is battered and vulnerable. Then of course there's RB Ryan Grant, who has just been UNBELIEVABLE. He averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games and then last week....Well you KNOW what he did! Championship GOY 20* GB Packers.
Good Luck...Larry
