Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Top Play...
1. 300,000♦ Chargers
1. Chargers- Several factors have me liking the Chargers in this one, but let's start with the fact that clearly oddsmakers have caught upto the Patriots, who are just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games. Although undefeated SU, they've become too expensive to even consider backing over the last 2 months or so, and that couldn't be more true in today's AFC Championshio game. Why? Because San Diego is not the same team they were in Week 2, plain and simple.
The Chargers meanwhile, have won and covered 8 straight games, looking like a team peaking at precisely the right time. Say what you will about their Week 2 loss at New England, but their win last week at Indinapolis should've erased any doubts you had in this Chargers team's ability to win on the road.
So how do they do it? First things first, this San Diego team is led by their defense, which has been outstanding. Over their last 3 games, the Chargers are allowing 15 ppg on 336 total yards! More importantly, they possess the two things necessary to at least fluster Tom Brady: A. rock-solid cover corners (Jammer and Cromartie) and B. as good and aggressive a front 7 as there is the NFL today.
Of course the injuries were a concern early this week, but Tomlinson is going to play, and it looks increasingly like Rivers will play as well. But an even more important factor maybe the weather, which is not conducive to the Pats high-octane passing attack. Its going to be cold, and winds are expected to be around 15-20 miles per hour, which immediately points to a lower scoring defensive affair. Of course, New England will score points, but with San Diego being spotted this many, you're talking about beating one of the best defenses in the NFL consistently in lousy weather.
Bottom line, New England will likely win this game, but one of the hardest things to do in the NFL is beat a team you've seen already once this season soundly. Its the very reason rivalry games are usually so close, because teams are familiar with each others players and schemes. Based on the factors listed above, I'm calling for San Diego to keep this game within the number, using their defense and running game to control the tempo and grab the cash this afternoon.
Take the Chargers plus the points over the Patriots as your top-rated play of the day.
Tonight's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Packers
2. 50,000♦ Oregon
1. Packers- Everyone's cinderella comes to Lambeau tonight, but the fairytale ends there, as I expect the Pack to lay down the law and end the Giants season with a solid home win and cover in this one. When people say: "Beating Favre at Lambeau in the cold is nearly impossible" they're speaking more truth than they know, as he's 19-4-3 ATS at home from December onwards (when facing an opponent of a win) in his career! More of the same tonight and here's why:
First and foremost, you saw the difference Ryan Grant makes to this Packers offense. His ability to burst through the hole gives this Green Bay team a dimension they haven't had in a long time, and thanks to that, defenses can no longer key on Favre. His 201 rushing yards and 3 TD effort against Seattle was one of the most dominating rushing performances I've seen in recent playoff history. Sure, the Giants are excellent at pressuring the quarterback, but when you go all out for the sack, you leave running lanes wide open... Remember that when you're watching Grant streak down the sideline.
Speaking of defense, while the Giants are good at one or two aspects, the Green Bay defense is the more balanced unit. Both teams are allowing around 22 ppg over thier last 3 games, but the big difference here is total yards: New York 332 yards per game, Green Bay 244 yards per game... Needless to say, that's a large gap between these two stop-units.
Finally, while winning on the road has been the Giants specialty, this is their 6th road game in 8 weeks, and eventually we can count on Manning to screw this thing up. Say what you will, but I just don't trust the Giants signal caller in the biggest game of his career, in the cold, and against this defense. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Grant continues to add to his surprising breakout season with another solid effort complementing Favre in this one. In the end, Packers roll!
Take the Packers comfortably over the NY Giants in tonight's NFC Championship Game.
2. Oregon- This is your classic offense vs. defense showdown, and in this case, I'm siding with the more offensive Ducks in this one. Why? Because although the Cougars are downright nasty at home on defense, the Ducks have the weapons necessary to keep this game closer than expected. Let me explain...
Because of the injuries to their frontline, the Ducks use a guard-heavy rotation (along with F Leunan), to force teams into a more up-tempo game. Ducks are averaging 81 ppg on an outstanding 49% shooting this season, and while they won't get anywhere near those numbers tonight, they can and will keep this game within the number.
Oregon's biggest edge comes in their excellent perimeter play, led by sharp-shooter Malik Hairston (54% from field, 48% from 3-point), this Ducks team can bury you from the perimeter... Even their one true frontcourt threat, 6'9 F Leunen, can bury the 3-pointer (50% from beyond the arc). They'll have to deal with a solid Cougars backcourt, but make no mistake, Hairston is the best player on the floor, bar none.
finally, before you go dicounting the Ducks, consider two things: A. They've won and covered 5 straight against this Washington State team and B. Oregon is an outstanding 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games against the PAC-10! In other words, underestimate this Ducks team in this spot at your own risk, as they've done it before and while they may not win outright, they will grab the cash in this one.
Take Oregon plus the points over Washington State in this PAC-10 showdown.