Bobby Fat-Well
Bobby Fat-Well
Bobby Maxwell
Sunday's big 3-0 ticket
1000-Unit Conference Title Crusher - N.Y. GIANTS
While everybody is putting Brett Favre in the Super Bowl, we're not so sure and definitely sure if the Packers win this one, it's not going to be by more than a touchdown.
New York's defensive line is the best in the NFL and those guys are going to make Favre's life miserable in this one and that's exactly why we think the Giants can not only hang close, but have a definite chance to win the game.
We know all about Green Bay's 35-13 win in Week 2 this season but that was before the New York defense found out it could be good. The Giants had just been slaughtered in Dallas in the opening week and allowed Favre & Co. to come into New York and score the easy win with Favre throwing for 286 yards and three TDs.
That won't happen today.
New York seems to love playing on the road having won nine in a row after last week's 21-17 win in Dallas to get them to the NFC title game. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in those nine games. They outgained Dallas 336-230 and held the Cowboys to 90 yards on the ground and had their controversial QB manage the game and not give it away.
Yes, Eli Manning has been much-maligned since arriving in New York and hadn't won a playoff game before this season, but in the first two games he's done just what's needed to help his team win. He's realized he doesn't need to carry the load, just not turn the ball over. He threw for 163 yards and two TDs against the Cowboys and had two TDs and no INTs in the first-round game against Tampa Bay.
If he doesn't turn the ball over tonight, I love our chances. Manning needs to let his defense and running game control this game. Brandon Jacobs is a beast and good weather or bad he should be able to run the ball. And everybody worried about the New York secondary but it sure did well against Dallas.
The reason it did well in the fourth quarter is because the Giants' defensive line had QB Tony Romo on the run. They got after him and hit him seemingly every time he threw the ball. Now they get a slower QB that's more willing to throw the ball away. New York's defense led the NFL with 53 sacks this year.
The Packers aren't that far removed from being a very bad team, anyone remember 2005's 4-12 record and last season opening 4-8? That's when Favre tried to do everything himself and tonight when things start going against them, you'll see a lot of the same thing. The Giants are not going to let the Packers running game get off the ground and make Favre beat them in this horrible weather.
The Giants are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 9-3 against the NFC, 7-2 in the playoffs, 5-1 as a playoff underdog and 5-1 in January football games.
Defense is the name of this one. Expect a very low-scoring game and both defenses will star in this one. If Eli stays away form the INTs New York could pull this thing off. Let's grab the points and play the Giants in this one. And don't be surprised when Favre has a couple ugly turnovers and puts his team in trouble.
200-Unit AFC Maxwell Smart Play of the Day - N.E. PATRIOTS (buy the 1/2 point if the line is 14 1/2)
First off, let's buy this half-point down to 14 if your Man has the line at 14 1/2. I have only recommended this maybe five times in my entire career when the spread was this high, but something tells me this game might just end up at 14 and we want to be protected.
We're going with the Patriots in this one because they are facing a San Diego team that isn't coming in anywhere close to 100 percent. I know the Chargers beat the Colts with backups at RB, QB and TE, but you can't go into Foxborough and do that against the Patriots. Indianapolis is soft, New England isn't.
If San Diego was coming in completely healthy, we'd definitely grab the points and play the Chargers, but anything less than their best is not good enough to even hang close to the Patriots.
New England is used to the scene around the AFC title games with this being the fourth appearance in the last five games. San Diego is in the game for the first time in 13 seasons and have to play it undermanned and in the frigid weather in Foxborough.
The Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS in franchise history and we all know they set an NFL record with 589 points this season with QB Tom Brady tossing 50 TD passes and WR Randy Moss catching 23. Yes, the Chargers force a lot of turnovers, 26 in the last eight games, but they're facing a Patriots' squad that just doesn't give the ball up.
Brady threw just eight INTs this season and nothing seems to faze the guy. The Jaguars decided to take his favorite target away and Randy Moss only had one catch. So he went to the short passing game and completed 26-of-28 throws for 264 yards and three TDs. He knows the Chargers are going to come after him so look for some quick slants and fades working today against a San Diego defensive secondary that was torched early in the season.
These two teams met in New England in Week 2 when the Patriots scored a 38-14 win as a 3 1/2-point home favorite. Brady had three TDs and one INT and even the rushing game was dominating with the Pats racking up 144 yards and the defense held the Chargers to 52 yards rushing - and that was with a 100 percent healthy LaDanian Tomlinson.
New England is 7-4 ATS at home, 8-3-1 ATS in home playoff games, 13-6-2 ATS in January football games, 13-6 against the AFC and 41-20-3 against teams with a winning record. They dominated the ATS trends early in the season and bookmakers adjusted the lines and the Patriots are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven.
The Chargers' offense is going to be affected by the players coming in at less than 100 percent. QB Philip Rivers is likely going to try and go and he will not be mobile at all and if he tries to compensate with his arm, he'll likely be overthrowing his receivers and you'll probably see a couple INT's before they pull him for backup QB Billy Volek.
Expect the turnover bug to bite the Chargers today. We're playing the Patriots but if possible just lay the two touchdowns. We're expecting a blowout but want that security of a two-touchdown win not sending us home a loser.
100-Unit Big Ten Book Buster - MICHIGAN STATE
Three days after duking it out with No. 9 Indiana, the Golden Gophers now have to play No. 11 Michigan State. We like the Spartans' chances in this one as Minnesota isn't going to be able to put out the same type effort they did against the Hoosiers.
Minnesota fought it out with Indiana for 40 minutes but came up short 65-60 and fell as a one-point home underdog. Now they are expected to get as emotionally high as they were Thursday? No way that can happen. It might be a close game for a half, but Michigan State's talent will take over in the second half.
The Spartans beat Ohio State 66-60 on Thursday and jumped out to a 27-7 lead. They failed to cover as an 8 1/2-point favorite, dropping them to 0-5 ATS in their last five.
Back on Jan. 5, these two met in Michigan when the Spartans won 65-59 but came up short as an 11-point favorite. They have dominated Minnesota, winning eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The Golden Gophers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games while Michigan STate is 7-3 ATS when they tip off on Sunday.
Let's lay the small chalk on Michigan State today and watch as the Spartans pull away in the second half and score a 10-point victory.
