Parlay Options

[BOXLOCKS]

Heads-Up for you Mijares backers...

5dimes now has Navarro 12rd dec +950...that line is way off and sets up a nice hedge situation. As posted I think Mijares wins, already had him in a few parlays, now I'm adding a few more as the Navarro decision prop sets up the perfect hedge. Just can't see Navarro stopping him


gl bl

 

[nj]

Heads-Up for you Mijares backers...

5dimes now has Navarro 12rd dec +950...that line is way off and sets up a nice hedge situation. As posted I think Mijares wins, already had him in a few parlays, now I'm adding a few more as the Navarro decision prop sets up the perfect hedge. Just can't see Navarro stopping him


gl bl

Totally absurd. I got +630 earlier on and was happy with it. I thought my night was done, but +939 is an absolute must. What are they thinking? Thanks for the heads up.

I seem to be the only one, but I love Pavlik/Taylor no point deduction. Parlaying that with Mijares.

 

[gardenweasel]

Heads-Up for you Mijares backers...

5dimes now has Navarro 12rd dec +950...that line is way off and sets up a nice hedge situation. As posted I think Mijares wins, already had him in a few parlays, now I'm adding a few more as the Navarro decision prop sets up the perfect hedge. Just can't see Navarro stopping him


gl bl

i don`t understand that line one bit......nor do i understand why the mijares/navarro over line has dropped from around-245 to -210......

that bothers me a bit...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

i don`t understand that line one bit......nor do i understand why the mijares/navarro over line has dropped from around-245 to -210......

that bothers me a bit...

I've seen a couple boxing guys pointing toward a late stoppage win for Mijares, due to an accumulation of punishment I guess. Navarro's eye was pretty swollen by the end of the Kirilov fight, might be a small cause for concern. I think it goes the distance myself, but I have plenty on Mijares just in case.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Update...

Update...

Thanks to gw's input, I'll probably lay off Spinks in my parlays as Verno will be dangerous early. With the location and promotion of the fight Verno knows he needs a ko to win, and he just might have enough left to make it happen. Spinks can be lacadazical and overconfident at times, esp when fighting at home, at -500 he doesn't boost the odds enough to risk it. Still don't like the Over in that one


New options on the table...

3/22 ***Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380....I really like this one, as posted. Neither guy has much power, both have solid chins, its a very even fight so no one will dominate...nuff said

3/28 Ouma should beat Bundrage but I can't bet on him after his last performance, -600 doesn't help the odds enough

4/12 ***Dawson over Johnson -275...great number at sbook and sbetting, I think Dawson is too young, quik, tall, slick, and just too good for the aging and slowing Johnson whose game is pressure and workrate. He's 39 now and been through a ton of wars, he also has 12 more pounds to lose while Dawson is already at the weight. Dawson is a young, talented southpaw who is getting better every day, they are fighting for his title under his promotion, Johnson will have to beat him clearly. I don't see it happening as Johnson is on the downside of his long, rough career

4/12 ***Cotto over Gomez -800...odds aren't that great but does anyone really give Gomez a shot, not me

4/12 Marg over Cintron -290...see franks thread

4/19 *Calzaghe-Hopkins Over 11.5 -320....already have a little on this but not as strong as the three above plays

5/24 *Hatton over Lazcano -950...odds aren't really worth it but Lazcano needs a ko to win, he already lost on the cards. Maybe he throws Ricky into a turnbuckle

9/20 **Mayweather-DLH Over 10.5 -350....long ways down the road but I might start using it when no other options are available


Any thoughts fellas???

 

[Zerwas]

Rees is pretty much an unknown quantity, I dont think his chin is proven. Kotelnik wont be knocked out thats for sure.
-380 is quite wide, but if Rees has a chin problem it probably wont be exposed by Kotelnik....


I dont think that Gomez will be an easy match for Cotto. He's tough and resilient and certainly comes to fight.


Hopkins vs. Calzahge over looks solid.


-1050 is very wide on Hatton.
I certainly wouldnt lay that kind of chalk on a fighter that has just been knocked out.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Rees is pretty much an unknown quantity, I dont think his chin is proven. Kotelnik wont be knocked out thats for sure.
-380 is quite wide, but if Rees has a chin problem it probably wont be exposed by Kotelnik....


I dont think that Gomez will be an easy match for Cotto. He's tough and resilient and certainly comes to fight.


Hopkins vs. Calzahge over looks solid.


-1050 is very wide on Hatton.
I certainly wouldnt lay that kind of chalk on a fighter that has just been knocked out.

These are all parlay options, I wouldn't lay that kind of chalk on any of these

I figured Rees' chin was proven in his last fight with M'Baye, am I wrong?

gl bl

 

[Zerwas]

Mbaye fought pretty impassive againt Rees, other than that Rees hasnt fought anybody...I wouldnt say that his chin is proven, Kotelnik's chin is certainly proven BTW, but you're right it will probably hold up against Kotelnik.

I personally wouldnt include Hatton in my parlay, -1000 is not a big boost, but I'm not a big parlay fan anyway....

 

[MayorgaFan]

........

........

Forgot about this thread. I actually would have contributed 1 before this weekend but oh well. :0 As it is most of the good chalk options have been mentioned. I would be shocked as hell if the Rees fight ended before 12 unless it was off a cut or something. Kotelnik is very sturdy and hits like a sissy. it should go 12.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Forgot about this thread. I actually would have contributed 1 before this weekend but oh well. :0 As it is most of the good chalk options have been mentioned. I would be shocked as hell if the Rees fight ended before 12 unless it was off a cut or something. Kotelnik is very sturdy and hits like a sissy. it should go 12.

My bad, I let it drift downstream these last few weeks, what were you looking at?

Any thoughts on Dawson-Johnson?

 

[MayorgaFan]

My bad, I let it drift downstream these last few weeks, what were you looking at?

Any thoughts on Dawson-Johnson?

Mares I felt was pretty much a lock. In fact I recommeded him as parlay material for a buddy of mine that posts as trixtrix at a couple other places. Dawson should beat Johnson. My only slight concern is that Dawson's chin isn't so good. While I know Johnson is old as hell, he is still very agressive early. Still, Tarver was able to outbox and outwork Johnson for big portions of there fights, Dawson should do it and more decisively.

BTW- Verno Phillips is coming off a long ass layoff and Spinks style is all wrong for him. I actually think Spinks is a good 1 for a parlay. if you watch Phillips-Candelo, Candelo was able to outbox him at range which is what I expect Spinks to do. Phillips throws a lot of telegraphed punches. I can't stnad that bastard Spinks but I expect him to win easily.

 

[Romi]

Mares I felt was pretty much a lock. In fact I recommeded him as parlay material for a buddy of mine that posts as trixtrix at a couple other places. Dawson should beat Johnson. My only slight concern is that Dawson's chin isn't so good. While I know Johnson is old as hell, he is still very agressive early. Still, Tarver was able to outbox and outwork Johnson for big portions of there fights, Dawson should do it and more decisively.

BTW- Verno Phillips is coming off a long ass layoff and Spinks style is all wrong for him. I actually think Spinks is a good 1 for a parlay. if you watch Phillips-Candelo, Candelo was able to outbox him at range which is what I expect Spinks to do. Phillips throws a lot of telegraphed punches. I can't stnad that bastard Spinks but I expect him to win easily.

I like Dawson over Johnson BIG. I'll be absolutely shocked if the old man could turn back the clock and beat Dawson. Personally , I think Dawson is THE GOODS...tall southpaw that has very good boxing ability, speed, pop, range, can fight inside and out and goes to the body well. I don't think his chin is bad. The kds against Harding and the Pole were flash kds and he came rt back in both to put a hurting on those 2 guys. Johnson will need a KO and I don't see it. I see a possibility of Dawson putting on a show and stopping Johnson in the later rds. If not, then I see a wide dec. Johnson faded late against the lighter hitting Woods. I have a few thouand on this already and looking to load up more. I've gotten -275 and -310. Dawson was a huge money maker for me last yr. I cashed in against adamak when Dawson was +200 for a 4k profit. I also made decnt money in his last 2 on the unders.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I like Dawson over Johnson BIG. I'll be absolutely shocked if the old man could turn back the clock and beat Dawson. Personally , I think Dawson is THE GOODS...tall southpaw that has very good boxing ability, speed, pop, range, can fight inside and out and goes to the body well. I don't think his chin is bad. The kds against Harding and the Pole were flash kds and he came rt back in both to put a hurting on those 2 guys. Johnson will need a KO and I don't see it. I see a possibility of Dawson putting on a show and stopping Johnson in the later rds. If not, then I see a wide dec. Johnson faded late against the lighter hitting Woods. I have a few thouand on this already and looking to load up more. I've gotten -275 and -310. Dawson was a huge money maker for me last yr. I cashed in against adamak when Dawson was +200 for a 4k profit. I also made decnt money in his last 2 on the unders.

Thats what I like to hear Romi, as posted I have $800 riding on Dawson at even money after the Marquez-Pacman middle came through, also have another $1200 riding on him in other parlays. I was on Dawson over Adamek as well, but not nearly as big as you were

Btw, glad you agree on the Kotelnik-Rees Over, I thought -380 was a gift and then SB came out with -365...very nice. Unfortunatly they don't allow parlays on round totals. Line is still up at 5dimes, think I'll add a little more to it after buying out my Andrade straight bet


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

i know everyone will think i`m crazy,but,i don`t necessarily think spinks is a lock at over -500 plus vs old verno phillips at 154.....

he`ll be slick,but,if phillips has anything left,he throws lots of punches from all angles and will press the issue....unlike say the russian,who was way to patient with spinks...

granted,it`s in missou...but,spinks just doesn`t have the oomph,especially at 154....and we know he can be hurt... phillips is way quicker and a bit more cagey than mayorga,who telegraphs his shots...

busy,stronger guys like ouma and quartey tend to wear down phillips...that shouldn`t happen here...and this is a 12-er....

i remember phillips seriously hurting the strong chinned quartey and he just stopped teddy reid(granted,reid`s shot).....

i still have some respect for phillips...he`s sneaky dangerous...

Excellent call gw, thats what this thread is all about

I still put Spinks in a very small parlay based on the location/promotion of the fight, but your post saved me alot of cash on that one. Thanks for posting and congrats on the +400 winner

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

Excellent call gw, thats what this thread is all about

I still put Spinks in a very small parlay based on the location/promotion of the fight, but your post saved me alot of cash on that one. Thanks for posting and congrats on the +400 winner

gl bl

thank you buddy.....salves the wound from that disastrous mma play i made on shrimpie frankie edgar vs a much bigger gray maynard....

was dereliction of duty on my part...pure and simple...embarrassing...:banghead:

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Parlay options as of right now...


Cotto -800...Dzindziruk -675...Hatton -975

Margarito -290

Dawson -320

Dawson Over 11.5 -320

Tarver Over 11.5 -210

Hopkins Over 11.5 -290

Sarritzu-Inom Over 9.5 -350

Chagaev-Valuev Over 9.5 -475



As posted, I already have 2 grand riding on Dawson and Cotto at even money, so I'm moving on to the next set of plays...


***Dzindziruk over Konecny -675....this fight has been rescheduled several times, but I love Dzind in this spot. Fighting at home under a dominant promoter with a huge height/reach advantage to compliment his southpaw stance. Not much power to worry about from Kon and Dzind has a solid chin. Dzind is a great fighter, will take the best out there to beat him in Germany

**Sarritzu-Inom Over 9.5 -350...These guys already fought to a close 12 round decision. Neither has much power and both have solid chins, the 9.5 is a gift as I expected 11.5. Only thing that worries me, line moved from -380 to win -350, perhaps they were just eliminating some juice from the feeler line

*Tarver-Woods Over 11.5 -210....Slightly risky with two older fighters needing 12 rounds to cash. Both guys can hit a little but nothing to worry about imo as both have solid chins. This number seems a little low to me

*Hopkins-Calzaghe Over 11.5 -290...Slightly risky but nobody's stopping Hopkins and I don't think Hop has the power or workrate to stop Zags

*Chagaev-Valuev Over 9.5 -475....Easily went 12 last time they fought and I expect the same in the rematch



I have Cintron at +275, so I might parlay Marg to cover the potential loss, not real confident in Cintron's right hand holding up for 12 rounds.

Dawson fight could go 12 rounds, but I'm leaving it alone

Hatton should be too much for Lazcano but the odds aren't worth the risk, wouldn't surprise me if a Hatton cut stopped the fight, or Lazcano could drill him into the ringpost

In another thread, TonyMontana mentioned being big on Cotto, wonder what wager he's speaking of as I know he's not laying 8-1 and I dought he's parlaying those kind of odds. Alot of guys around here are giving Gomez a shot, I'd like to hear Tony's take on this fight


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

Anything Gomez does, Cotto does better. Gomez will not hit Cotto any harder than Judah or Mosley did. Cotto's chin isn't granite, but he left a lot of those chin problems back at 140 where his frigen brain was probably dehydrated/lacking fluid.

Cotto also isn't an arrogant punkish type to take anyone lightlly and not train like Judah. I'll be suprised if Gomez can finish the fight.

Agree on Dzin...

With the Sarritzu -Inom fight going literally to Saritzu's backyard, you have to take a look at that but much more than 2 to 1 isn't great. Also noticed Sarrritzu KO'd a guy who beat him- Pozo. Drew with Inom the first fight in Inom's backyard. The crowd should jack up the Italian..

I thought Dawson was a bit hurt against Adamek, but he did compose himeslf quite well and didn't allow Adamek to hit him good again. Don't think Johnson hits as hard as Adamek, either.
The way Feliciano got into Cintron's head in their fght has me thinking Cintron has little chance.against Mar. Marg is every bit as tough and his offense despite flaws is miles above Feliciano

I'm going to Atlantic City. I guess living in Vegas and seeing most of the fights here isn't enough. Being from back East, I'll use the fiight card as an excuse to head back.




l[/QUOTE]

 

[BOXLOCKS]

With the Sarritzu -Inom fight going literally to Saritzu's backyard, you have to take a look at that but much more than 2 to 1 isn't great. Also noticed Sarrritzu KO'd a guy who beat him- Pozo. Drew with Inom the first fight in Inom's backyard. The crowd should jack up the Italian..

After doing some research last night, I'm playing Sarritzu -225 straight up and in parlays. The Over caught my attention first and it distracted me from seeing the value in Sarritzu. Still playing the Over 9.5, but I'm adding a big play on Sarritzu -225


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

After doing some research last night, I'm playing Sarritzu -225 straight up and in parlays. The Over caught my attention first and it distracted me from seeing the value in Sarritzu. Still playing the Over 9.5, but I'm adding a big play on Sarritzu -225

gl bl

Good to hear that vote of approval. Logic says the hometown guy.. I guess Inom came on hard down the stretch in their first fight to pull the draw.

 

[almly]

Hey punchmaster - shoot me an email at icsventures@live.com