Not a whole lot of talk or excitement about this one. I'll pay the 50 bucks to see Hop get retired. I have quite a bit riding @-350 on Pav. I give Hop very little chance here. He surprised me in the zags fight by keeping it relatively close but he also got some help from Cortez. Cortez gave him a much needed break from a ridiculous call on a low blow as Hop complained throughout to get any possible edge he could.Hop was fading bad in that fight and this could actually be the 1st time he gets stopped. His only hope IMO is to land his sunday punch counter shot.I still don't think it will be enough. Pav has a good set of whiskers and I can't see Hop getting him out of there. Hopkins simply can't sustain a steady onslaught that he'll need,to get Pav out of there. Pav throws a lot of shots and fights at a good measured pace from strt to finish. His shots aren't the pitty pat stuff that Zags throws. He throws em w/heat and I just see Hop covering up and trying to survive the distance after Pav takes control in the middle rds. As exhausted as Hopkins was in the last few rds of the Zags fight, I can see a corner stoppage late in the fight. I see Pav by clear dec or late rd stoppage.
Pavlic/Hopkins 11/18
- Thread starter Romi
- Start date
Good write up and theres a good countdown video to the fight on HBO.
Pavlik is the man at 160 but i believe 170 is the optimal weight for Hop he looks very powerful but in a good natural weight. Kelly is not a natural weightgainer like Pacman who seems to put on pure muscle at will. And i agree that Pavlik at 166 against Taylor the 6 additional pounds fit Taylor better.
Pavlik is way easier to figure out than Calzaghe, if you take away the jab of Pavlik he has a major problem. I was huge on Calzaghe against Hop, iam not huge on Pavlik because the odds are worse and Pavlik at this weight is a better fight for HOP.
Hopkins can punch and he has power at this weight and Pavlik is hittable. Pavlik took some big right hands against Miranda but if Hop lands his overhand right Pavlik has a good chance to land on his ass.
bettingwise i like Hop inside at 1055.
and i believe Pavlik has a good shot at stopping a tired Hop in the later rounds thats why the under looks good too at plus 200.
I liked Hopkins trainer team they said the right things and there was a intensity going on. Hopkins sounded pretty good too not punch drunk or anything and he looked sharp and powerful hitting the mitts.
I am looking forward to see this one because Pavlik brings it everytime. I also have Hop straight in a nice parlay but i dont see him winning a dec.
Good luck
Pavlik is the man at 160 but i believe 170 is the optimal weight for Hop he looks very powerful but in a good natural weight. Kelly is not a natural weightgainer like Pacman who seems to put on pure muscle at will. And i agree that Pavlik at 166 against Taylor the 6 additional pounds fit Taylor better.
Pavlik is way easier to figure out than Calzaghe, if you take away the jab of Pavlik he has a major problem. I was huge on Calzaghe against Hop, iam not huge on Pavlik because the odds are worse and Pavlik at this weight is a better fight for HOP.
Hopkins can punch and he has power at this weight and Pavlik is hittable. Pavlik took some big right hands against Miranda but if Hop lands his overhand right Pavlik has a good chance to land on his ass.
bettingwise i like Hop inside at 1055.
and i believe Pavlik has a good shot at stopping a tired Hop in the later rounds thats why the under looks good too at plus 200.
I liked Hopkins trainer team they said the right things and there was a intensity going on. Hopkins sounded pretty good too not punch drunk or anything and he looked sharp and powerful hitting the mitts.
I am looking forward to see this one because Pavlik brings it everytime. I also have Hop straight in a nice parlay but i dont see him winning a dec.
Good luck
- Jun 3, 2008
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One point to consider is will Pavlik go balls out like he did in his title winning effort, or will he play it safer as in the rematch.
Pavlik has different gears; whether this will be a distance fight depends of which Pavlik goes out.
The occasion to be the first to stop Hopkins might spur him to perform, or his recent ( and past hidden) injuries might make him adopt a more careful approach.
My guess is the latter. But who knows?
In any case, Hopkins will need to clearly win 7 rds to get a decision, and i just don't see that.
Pavlik has different gears; whether this will be a distance fight depends of which Pavlik goes out.
The occasion to be the first to stop Hopkins might spur him to perform, or his recent ( and past hidden) injuries might make him adopt a more careful approach.
My guess is the latter. But who knows?
In any case, Hopkins will need to clearly win 7 rds to get a decision, and i just don't see that.
this is gonna sound odd,but remember,pavlik is a white guy....and he isn`t a lefty....and doesn`t have mad skills and quicks and that clever awkwardness like calzaghe......
styles make fights....and i`ll grant you,b.hop looked old vs calzaghe.....
but pavlik,although an excellent puncher,doesn`t have great footwork......
taylor stood right in front of him both times....matter of factmost of his recent opponents have been guys that stand in front of him...no cuties in the bunch....
b.hop will give him angles and clinch and try and throw those potshots....
i think it all depends on whether "the calzaghe b.hop" IS the real b.hop....or it`s just that calzaghe is that good...that awkward...that tough....
bernard might be done...or he might not be:shrug: .....
i
styles make fights....and i`ll grant you,b.hop looked old vs calzaghe.....
but pavlik,although an excellent puncher,doesn`t have great footwork......
taylor stood right in front of him both times....matter of factmost of his recent opponents have been guys that stand in front of him...no cuties in the bunch....
b.hop will give him angles and clinch and try and throw those potshots....
i think it all depends on whether "the calzaghe b.hop" IS the real b.hop....or it`s just that calzaghe is that good...that awkward...that tough....
bernard might be done...or he might not be:shrug: .....
i
- Jun 3, 2008
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Actually, i just saw in the HBO preview Pavlik signing a baseball with...his left hand.
Then, i saw him...throwing darts with his right hand...
we had a thread about this earlier, me and gw see this alike. I already have a play on him +325, small play on decision +500.
If it goes the cards, the white, marketable, young guy should get the nod. That said, GBP is no joke. Aside from JMM, how often do their boys get the shaft?
I can see a flash KD, not a KO. Hop doesnt have the stamina to follow up, he's very conservative with energy. He should drop him then play conservative to put the 1-8 round in the bank.
As tony pointed out, the weight difference is a big factor, Pav wont have the same murderous power as he did at 160. Instead he'll be a simple, predictable fighter with decent power. He doesnt throw with the same volume or angles as Calzaghe, and is easier to time and counter.
If it goes the cards, the white, marketable, young guy should get the nod. That said, GBP is no joke. Aside from JMM, how often do their boys get the shaft?
I can see a flash KD, not a KO. Hop doesnt have the stamina to follow up, he's very conservative with energy. He should drop him then play conservative to put the 1-8 round in the bank.
As tony pointed out, the weight difference is a big factor, Pav wont have the same murderous power as he did at 160. Instead he'll be a simple, predictable fighter with decent power. He doesnt throw with the same volume or angles as Calzaghe, and is easier to time and counter.
Pav definitely fights orthodox, the power is in his straight right hand. Hop will know which side to move to, when to clinch, what distance to keep, etc. Hop is legit.
- Jun 3, 2008
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Many ringside journalists scored a close point victory for Hopkins against Calzaghe, and it was indeed a golden boy promotion.
All this talk about the Cal/ Hopkins fight from guys in here you would think Calzaghe destroyed him. I didn't see anything special from Calzaghe in that fight. I still think he is overrated. As for this fight just take Romi post and pretend its mind cause that is the same thing i think. Hopkins isn't winning anything throwing 5 punches a round. Have to take my hat off to Tarver last night. At least he worked. Hopkins is all about saving his energy. Its time for him to hang them up. 12 round decision or his corner stops it. Pavlik isn't gonna go throwing that pitty pat garbage Calzaghe always throws.
I didnt see the complete scond fight between Taylor and Pavlik.
How did he look at 166 lbs!?
From what I have heard the weight favored Taylor more than pavlik....
Could he maintain his workrate and his power at 166 lbs!?
How did he look at 166 lbs!?
From what I have heard the weight favored Taylor more than pavlik....
Could he maintain his workrate and his power at 166 lbs!?
- Apr 8, 2008
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Pavlik will hold the 170 just fine. He's big and has struggled at 160 for a while. Actually I think Hopkins is better at 175 than 170. Hopkins was 170 for Winky Wright and didn't look great. I expect a Pavlik win and I expect him to be very strong. The question for me is how he gets it done. The KO prop is enticing at nearly +250 but the logical outcome is a wide decision win for Pavlik. Hopkins knows how to survive and go into survival mode if the going gets rough. Hopkins will take a loss but I know the last thing he wants is a stoppage loss - especially to a "Ghost."
I do see Pavlik as the most punishing puncher Hopkins has ever seen. No one has hurt Hopkins since 1994 when he was dropped twice by Segundo Mercado in Ecuador, escaping with a dubious draw. But BHOP improved and handled Mercado in a rematch several months later. And that was the beginning of his middleweight reign.
I do see Pavlik as the most punishing puncher Hopkins has ever seen. No one has hurt Hopkins since 1994 when he was dropped twice by Segundo Mercado in Ecuador, escaping with a dubious draw. But BHOP improved and handled Mercado in a rematch several months later. And that was the beginning of his middleweight reign.
- Apr 8, 2008
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Taylor was just better prepared the 2nd time and the weight did benefit him. I don't think the heavier weight bothered Pavlik but I believe Pavlik may have had a touch of a hangover afer his first victory over Taylor. Pavlik will be "right" in this one.
Really, what's the freakin point of this "contest"? Will it be another Hopkins lunge/headfirst charge and hold affair? How can anyone watch that felon fight and not get disgusted with his ugly tactics? Why isn't Pavlik fighting Abraham as it should be since he is #2 at middle? Kelly has sold out to the $$$$ machine which I never expected he would. But why not, They all succumb to the benjamins eventually. If you want to see a real fight watch Mijares and Darchinyan, or some others coming up. This one is a charade. Hope you guys also can make some money off of it though since many others will.
if hopkins puts in another calzaghe performance,he should be forced to retire....particularly vs a style like pavlik`s...
i really believe that styles make fights...particularly with bernard...
guys that are extremely quick of hand(r.j.,taylor,calzaghe)give him a fit.......guys that stand in front of him(winky,trinidad,tarver) and aren`t particularly quick of hand have real problems with him.....
and i don`t consider pavlik to have super hand speed...
now,the b.hop we saw vs calzaghe faded and looked incredibly old,imo...
was it the style?...was it calzaghe`s incredible workrate?.....or was it father time?...can b,hop pull another winky,trinidad,tarver performance out of his bag of tricks?...
my state of mind is that losing a -350 or so wager is akin to having a root canal without anesthesia ....some others it doesn`t seem to bother so much...
so,take my post in the proper perspective...i can see thinking that b.hop. is old and that pavlik`s looked very good.....
i`m just very cautious and will probably just take b.hop at the best possible odds i can find for a smallish to medium play....i mean,the guy`s better than a 3-1 dog for a reason...i get it....
i`m only playing -300 or better on what i consider as close to a sure thing as i can find.....and i`m still afraid of b.hop....
but,that`s me...:shrug:
i really believe that styles make fights...particularly with bernard...
guys that are extremely quick of hand(r.j.,taylor,calzaghe)give him a fit.......guys that stand in front of him(winky,trinidad,tarver) and aren`t particularly quick of hand have real problems with him.....
and i don`t consider pavlik to have super hand speed...
now,the b.hop we saw vs calzaghe faded and looked incredibly old,imo...
was it the style?...was it calzaghe`s incredible workrate?.....or was it father time?...can b,hop pull another winky,trinidad,tarver performance out of his bag of tricks?...
my state of mind is that losing a -350 or so wager is akin to having a root canal without anesthesia ....some others it doesn`t seem to bother so much...
so,take my post in the proper perspective...i can see thinking that b.hop. is old and that pavlik`s looked very good.....
i`m just very cautious and will probably just take b.hop at the best possible odds i can find for a smallish to medium play....i mean,the guy`s better than a 3-1 dog for a reason...i get it....
i`m only playing -300 or better on what i consider as close to a sure thing as i can find.....and i`m still afraid of b.hop....
but,that`s me...:shrug:
Hey fella, you ought to shut it until you have the for sure facts as your just speculating. I've seen you say other brilliant things such as Doug Fischer (who I know personally ) is a hack and will say anything for money which is just about the stupidest thing I've heard in some time. You ever even spoken to the guy? And explain to me how he gets money for stating his opinion. I've seen some other gems such as Margarito should be a professional, prepared for every bout as he was making excuses for the poor Clottey performance.. Margarito ought to be a professional??? Coming from you ... and just who the are you and let us know about your "professional " past or present? I also speak to Margarito's manager who's been with him from the start and his foot/ankle was a fricken mess to the point we're managmenet was thinking about pulling him out and the only one who made excuses was Clottey when once he realized he wasn't going to budge The Terminator he let the whole arena know he was having hand problems..... You got any shit to talk about Margarito now after Cotto?
And now when you come out and say Kelly Pavlik has sold out to the money machine $$$, I can't hold my tongue no longer. Pavlik is about as straight shooting good fella as you'll fiind. BHop was not his first choice. Abraham made the decision to fight his mandatory Marquez to keep his belt and they have been negotiating for January. You want to talk money machine, look at De La Hoya- Paq, etc.
You tend to just spew from the mouth a bit with no facts or basis for saying it so until you know the truth and what's going on, my clean, hard, advice to you is just shut it unless you know it's the truth and cap away with the rest of the gang here. You seem to have some good sources or consultants.
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I seriously doubt frank gives a shit about any opinions from a dude nicknamed "buttchomp". Go back to that rock you crawled out from under....
While I dont agree with buttchomp's assessment of frank as a person or boxing mind, he has a point regarding Pavlik at least, I can't comment on Margo or Fischer. Pavlik didn't want this fight. He wanted Abraham. Abe is stuck with a mandatory against Marquez, and more importantly, HBO threatened to take away Top Rank's televised date for Pavlik if he didn't fight someone on their preffered list, headed by none other than Bernard Hopkins. HBO and GBP have an extremely cozy relationship, bordering on corruption. They were also influential in getting Pac-DLH made, backing GBP's agenda.
Allan Green was a contender for the shot, I've heard that he backed out, lowballed, who knows what happened. When better options dried out, Arum accepted Hopkins on a 50-50 split, Pavlik publicly didn't like it, but said he'll fight anyone put in front of him.
If we all just chilled out and kept heated non-capping related opinions on the low, we'd be better for it. I don't think we should chastisize members who have stupid screen names, if they have something worth insightful to say. Then again, I'm obviously biased in that regard.
I'd like to publicly welcome buttchomp, though hopefully your future posts come under more pleasant circumstances.
Allan Green was a contender for the shot, I've heard that he backed out, lowballed, who knows what happened. When better options dried out, Arum accepted Hopkins on a 50-50 split, Pavlik publicly didn't like it, but said he'll fight anyone put in front of him.
If we all just chilled out and kept heated non-capping related opinions on the low, we'd be better for it. I don't think we should chastisize members who have stupid screen names, if they have something worth insightful to say. Then again, I'm obviously biased in that regard.
I'd like to publicly welcome buttchomp, though hopefully your future posts come under more pleasant circumstances.
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Well, I think there are really serious negotiatons underway for an Abraham Pavlik clash...Abraham is facing Marquez anyway, so Hopkins is not a bad option for Pavlik, though I dont know if it is good for him to move up 10 lbs and then move right back...
I see Pavlik as an easier matchup for Hopkins than Calzaghe...Hopkins is very clever and he moves very well, so that could really spell problems for Pavlik...Hopkins looks "live", but so did Tarver last week...Pavlik WPTS @-120 might not be a bad bet.
I see Pavlik as an easier matchup for Hopkins than Calzaghe...Hopkins is very clever and he moves very well, so that could really spell problems for Pavlik...Hopkins looks "live", but so did Tarver last week...Pavlik WPTS @-120 might not be a bad bet.
Okay, I'll take your advice about more pleasant posts except I've got one more to respond to Hurricane Eddy that may not falll under the pleasant circumstances umbrella but it's something I've been thinking about for a while and I have to ask him in a separate thread, responding to his post to me. I'm glad you stood up for me and all others with stupid screen names. I can't help the name my parents gave me. Thanks for the public welcoming NJ. And remember, I'm the best damn boxing capper West of Los Angeles all the way to the Pacifc Ocean!
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:mj07: Good one Eddie Baby!!! You ever try and picture in your mind what some of the posters look llke? Probably nothiing like we think but I've got this sneaking suspicion that your like this...."tub o' lard" . Huh? Am I wrong? Are we talking ex-athlete beer gut type of stuff with you, no biggie, or just plain ol fat boy, or are we talking fat legs, Jaba The Hut type of stuff. Come clean Hurricane cause I'm gonna be back here in a while after crawling back under that rock you spoke of.
Oh yea. This is boxing capping and I must compliment my post with something worthy and insightful. Plain and simple, Hopkins is too damn old to get the victory Sat. night. I think people are forgetting the key fact that Hopkins had to give himself a 3 plus minute rest period, faking he was hit by a low blow to ensure he finished the fight against Joe. Pav is admitedly more dominant at 160, but very good for him that he met a very motivated, in shape , much tactically smarter Taylor in the rematch at a set weight of 166, a match in which Taylor employed much more lateral movement and defense, making it much harder for Pavlik to set his feet and hit him. Yet Pavlik found a way to get to him late and hurt him to the body to take a close but clear win. Loved seeing that big left hook against Miranda in the HBO Countdown show as we tend to think Pavlik is right hand only, something Hopkins is banking on. Pavlik is an all around great athlete that can take a punch and make some adjustments. Pav wins and I hope he finds a way to stop and retire the old man.
