Plonked some $$ down on freo to win the game outright and was thinking of you guys with about 10 minutes to go when the margin was about 20 points. Don't think it was as easy a cover as you make out but they got home nicely in the end which is all that counts. Unlucky Mr C, They gave it a good crack which is an improvement on last weeks effort.
Pawamech AFL system.....Week #6
- Thread starter PAWAQATSI
- Start date
I think you might be right, bomber!
Just watching a replay now......Saints 17 down 10 minutes left in 3rd....Gehrig mark 35 out and 'fakes' a handball......DEFINATELY did NOT move of the line, but umpire called play-on!!!
Freo go up the other end and score!!
Constant amazement to me......Umpires let some obvious holding the ball's go, but will punish a bloke for acting with his hands even tho his feet move NOWHERE!!!
Madness......total imbalance in the game!
Just watching a replay now......Saints 17 down 10 minutes left in 3rd....Gehrig mark 35 out and 'fakes' a handball......DEFINATELY did NOT move of the line, but umpire called play-on!!!
Freo go up the other end and score!!
Constant amazement to me......Umpires let some obvious holding the ball's go, but will punish a bloke for acting with his hands even tho his feet move NOWHERE!!!
Madness......total imbalance in the game!
Brisbane Under 39.5 V Carlton this week! I will be all over this like a fly on you know what. Prob look at Carlton +++ also.
Brisbane are 1.20 so prob looking at about a line of 28.5 or so.
No way brisbane wins by more that 39.5, my only worry is carlton getting up. Brizzy havent been anywhere near as impressive on the road as years gone by.
Opinions welcome
+
Port will beat Essendon. Nice price for Port also.
Sorry bombercoops...
Brisbane are 1.20 so prob looking at about a line of 28.5 or so.
No way brisbane wins by more that 39.5, my only worry is carlton getting up. Brizzy havent been anywhere near as impressive on the road as years gone by.
Opinions welcome
+
Port will beat Essendon. Nice price for Port also.
Sorry bombercoops...
Agree early, Incentive.
Have Carlton + tentatively pencilled in.
Here's some VERY interesting stats:
Clearances: Bris 270, Carl 273!!
Rebounds: Bris 237, Carl 240!!!
Inside 50's: Bris 441, Carl 440!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bris certainly only travelling at 75% max.
Looks to be some GREAT value about this week...Sydney 1.70
Also books can't split Freo/Melb @ MCG!!! (Admittedly Freo's ONE win ever at the ground was against the Dees.)
Also think this week will severely test PAWA's +30 or over theory....Crows will be about -37ish and realistically should win by a million
Hudgton and Koschitzke out for Saints should see Coll kick a big enough score to win.
Have Carlton + tentatively pencilled in.
Here's some VERY interesting stats:
Clearances: Bris 270, Carl 273!!
Rebounds: Bris 237, Carl 240!!!
Inside 50's: Bris 441, Carl 440!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bris certainly only travelling at 75% max.
Looks to be some GREAT value about this week...Sydney 1.70
Also books can't split Freo/Melb @ MCG!!! (Admittedly Freo's ONE win ever at the ground was against the Dees.)
Also think this week will severely test PAWA's +30 or over theory....Crows will be about -37ish and realistically should win by a million
Hudgton and Koschitzke out for Saints should see Coll kick a big enough score to win.
No theory Christo.......purely percentages my man and it is currently 5 from 6 @ 83%!!!! I always ride with the trend rather than against it (unless the express commands otherwise!! )
and it is currently 5 from 6 @ 83%!!!! I always ride with the trend rather than against it (unless the express commands otherwise!! ) Don't worry too much about the lions getting done by carlton. Brisbane are due for a good performance and will have too much class all over the ground to let this one slip. Incentive, never know with the dons. Could get beaten by 10 goals or win by ten goals. One of the most unpredictable sides to bet on this year I reckon. Think the pies will definitley bounce back after what has been a pretty ordinary past month bar the adelaide game. Looking forward to seeing the odds there. Think there should be a few appealing games out there for us this weekend.
Bomber,
agree 100% with u about the dons, very unpredicatble, great underdogs. Like to back them as dogs but not sure this week. Port are a tough nut to crack.
Brisbane shouldnt lose, but i see that as more probable than over 39.5 cashing in.
Definately some interesting games this week.
agree 100% with u about the dons, very unpredicatble, great underdogs. Like to back them as dogs but not sure this week. Port are a tough nut to crack.
Brisbane shouldnt lose, but i see that as more probable than over 39.5 cashing in.
Definately some interesting games this week.
bomber, this is the exact reason Brisbane are just 1-7 ATS this season!!
The Lions aren't the side they were last year (yet, anyway!). The midfield is way down on last year.
They are only 12th in clearances (finished the year 4th last year)...11th in possessions (2nd last year)
Their defense is a shadow of last year...An amazing 14th in rebounds this season, WAY down from 5th last year.
Add to this they are next to last (only better than Carlton) in goal accuracy, and they are (well, they ARE) perfect $$ makers for the books ATS.
I don't see them as being due at all......sure running at about 70%, but don't think it's by choice :nono:
Also, don't get too keen on the Pies mate. (1.57 to win). They are 15th in inside 50's and their defense is sub-par.
The midfield is slow, and their disposals are poor.
They simply rely on their tall foward line to convert chances and kick a winning score.
They've beaten an amazingly under-manned Richmond in Rd. 1, Carlton, Geelong (only kicking away late due to Tarrant), and Adelaide (where they still had 5 less shots at goal!).
Remember, they only won 13 games last season.
Good stats Mr C. I realise brisbane aren't running anywhere near last years form at this point but still cannot see them losing this one. Think inside 39 is a good bet. Have a feeling about the pies this week and although they are also not playing aswell as most probably expected at this point of the season, think they will beat a St Kilda side that although are much improved from last year to this point, rank along side carlton and geelong as an average side. Will see what the weekend brings I guess, but like having a stab at them on the money line. Can't afford to drop games like this if they are to be a serious threat come the end of the season.
Anyone like any other games this week?
Anyone like any other games this week?
