PGA Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Webb Simpson to beat Jason Day +100 @ Bet365
Day's form in Majors this year is hard to ignore, but Simpson is playing the better golf at the moment and particularly early in events. Not only was he first round leader at the Bridgestone Invitational last week, but in his previous two starts in the U.S., he has been 4th and 3rd after rd1. That is enough to back him at plus-odds in this matchup against a player who has been suffering with a strained right-hand recently.

Francesco Molinari to beat Boo Weekley -108 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
The Italian is playing better than Weekly has a win in his last ten starts, but no other top-25 finishes. With a record of four cuts made in the last four years in this event, I'd make him a clear favourite against Weekley who hasn't qualified for this event since 2010 when he missed the cut.

David Lynn to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -105 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
Opposing Olesen who has missed seven of his last eight cuts - he finished 48th of 73 last week, but there was no cut. Lynn has had a stellar year on the PGA Tour and holds a 6-1-0 rd1 h2h lead over Olesen in the U.S. this year. It is a year since he finished 2nd in this event to Rory McIlroy; he has done enough on the PGA Tour this year to show that was not such a fluke.

 

[lostinamerica]

Posting on the fly . . .

It's a fact I have a far better capping record in the four majors and The Players than I do in the week-in-and-week-out of the regular tours (although the U.S. PGA is the exception in that run of success, and of course one chance I had to put a dent in my lack of success in the PGA was snuffed when Dustin Johnson(33/1) incurred a two shot penalty on the 72nd hole at Whistling Straits). Part of the reason for the success is probably because of the effort I give, but I think it's based more on a solid catechism of knowing what I like (and don't particularly like) around each of those events.

All four majors (and The Players, in March and then in May) have some significant attributes when it comes to capping, including my focus and approach of trying to track players for weeks or even months heading in for their chances of peaking at these career defining events. And when play begins, you better know the players will have a long week of grinding in front of them.

. . . Now this year I've had some exceptionally large short lists on a weekly basis, in the majors and otherwise, and while I feel I've done a decent job of finding names I'm really comfortable dropping, I've had some really long lists when I started on Monday morning. . . Last week I managed to squeak out a tiny profit with 9 choices in a limited field event (while "opposing" Tiger winning for the 8th time), plus 5 more choices in Reno, for a total of 14 choices, and after landing first and 2nd at Augusta, and 1st, 2nd and 3rd at Muirfield, and close to 1st with Mickelson at Merion (as counterweights to my long-standing drought in the P.G.A.), and it's been that way fairly frequently this year, so I'm not too focused on being selective in pulling the trigger . . .


Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(16/1) e.w.
Adam Scott(18/1) e.w.
- - I would be surprised (very) if Rose soared so quickly again, but more or less expecting both of these gentlemen to be in the discussions on Friday and Saturday and quite possibly on the back 9 on Sunday.

Zach Johnson(40/1) e.w.
- - Looking back on my sheets I see I could have gotten 66/1 on August 4th, which is a move I should have made.

Henrik Stenson(25/1) e.w.
- - Pair him with Tiger, give him all sorts of varied examinations, he's been a machine of late, without shining on the greens.

Jason Dufner(40/1) e.w.
- - Really ticks a lot of boxes with me, until I get to his price.

Bill Haas(55/1) e.w.
- - Has some of the makings of an epic family moment, but P.U. on the price.

Lucas Glover(400/1) e.w.
- - I sure don't mind that price.

Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
- - I know he has followed a game plan, but I still can't be keen on the grind he's facing this week after his run of events that started in Europe.

********************************

Angel Cabrera(80/1) e.w.
- - Now I'm down in the selections where I could have dropped a few if I was being selective.

Paul Casey(150/1) e.w.
- - I don't necessarily think this is his time, but I definitely believe his price is too large.

Charles Howell(250/1) e.w.
- - Gets his first bite of the apple at a major this year, and I think it's a venue that could sort of suit if he's as ready as he could be.

Richard Sterne(125/1) e.w.
- - A vastly underrated player having a stellar campaign.

Jim Furyk(66/1) e.w.
- - The timing and venue ain't bad for a chance to completely turn around his mixed fortunes of the last two seasons.

Tiger Woods(+450) Win Only
- - Insurance Against.


GL

 

[DerrickTulips]

A lil surprised none of you guys liked Kaymer. His last few rounds at Birdgestone were strong.

 

[Another Steve]

Round 2 Match Ups
A SCOTT (RND 2) -140 (P MICKELSON (RND 2) vrs A SCOTT (RND 2))
R PALMER (RND 2) EV (R PALMER (RND 2) vrs D HEARN (RND 2))

 

[kickserv]

Second Round Match-Ups


B. WATSON beat L. WESTWOOD +120

S. BAE beat M. LAIRD +135

R. RAMSAY beat G. WOODLAND +130

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Thomas Bjorn -134 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
Furyk beat Bjorn by five shots yesterday to end the day tied for the lead with Adam Scott. For a player who has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two weeks, this is not such a surprise. Given that Bjorn has finished wd-73rd in his last two starts and hasn't finished in the top-10 in any of his last 29 PGA Tour or WGC events, Furyk should be able to beat his Danish opponent without the need to still be in the lead after 36 holes as he has done on the last two occasions that he has been leading after rd1.

Bill Haas to beat Graeme McDowell -139 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
GMac went on an amazing run from The Masters to the Open de France of playing eight times, winning three of those events and missing the cut in the rest. Now he is just not contending at all, finishing 58th, mc and then 40th in a field of 73. He is already a couple of shots behind Haas after rd1 and given that Haas has finised 1st, 9th, and 7th in his last three events in the U.S., I don't see him being a match for the American.

Lee Westwood to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]
Two players with good recent histories in this event, but I'll side with the player who has been in better form recently - that includes 3rd in the Open Championship whereas Bubba has finished in the top-20 in just one of his last nine starts - and looked in much better form yesterday when he ended the day in 3rd place and four shots ahead of his opponent.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kirk tb Warren -146; Gallacher tb Grace +117]

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 2

HARRIS ENGLISH (-120) over FREDDIE JACOBSON
BRANDEN GRACE (-127) over STEPHEN GALLACHER

 

[lostinamerica]

Friday:

Haas(+140) over McDowell/Els
Z.Johnson(+120) over Poulter/Glover
Clarke(-115) over T.Watson/McGinley
Stenson(+140) over D.Johnson/Schwartzel

GL

 

[yyz]

2nd RD


1 Unit Play


A Scott (-125) over P Mickelson

 

[LA Burns]

rd 2, playing:

stricker -115 vs dufner
kuchar -125 vs Sergio


as always, good luck - LA Burns

 

[Tommyjay]

Keegan to win 50-1 after 1st round

R2 Lawrie over Cink -105

 

[ejthree]

3rd Rounders....
Hoffman -30 vs Piercy
De jonge -10 vs Senden
Stricker + 05 vs Simpson

Gl

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 3

KEN DUKE (+108 ) over KEVIN STREELMAN
VIJAY SINGH (-120) over DARREN CLARKE

 

[Another Steve]

Round 3 Match Ups
K DUKE (RND 3) EV (K DUKE (RND 3) vrs K STREELMAN (RND 3))
J TEATER (RND 3) EV (J TEATER (RND 3) vrs JJ HENRY (RND 3))
B DE JONGE (RND 3) -115 (B DE JONGE (RND 3) vrs J SENDEN (RND 3))
C KIRK (RND 3) -115 (C KIRK (RND 3) vrs M MANASSERO (RND 3))
P CASEY (RND 3) +105 (P CASEY (RND 3) vrs G MCDOWELL (RND 3))
J ROSE (RND 3) -115 (J ROSE (RND 3) vrs H STENSON (RND 3))
J DUFNER (RND 3) -130 (J DUFNER (RND 3) vrs J FURYK (RND 3))

 

[kickserv]

Round 3 Match-Ups


I. POULTER beat R. MCILROY +115

M. JIMENEZ beat R. MOORE +110

R. FOWLER beat B. HAAS +110

W. SIMPSON beat S. STRICKER +120

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Robert Garrigus -160 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
I'll gladly take these odds to back Stricker against a player whose best finish in the last three months is 64th. Stricker has finished ahead of him in every common event in 2013 and in their last 25 common events, Stricker has finished ahead of his opponent 21 times. In terms of rd3 performances only over that period, Stricker leads Garrigus 14-3-0. So, I'll gladly take these odds on Stricker!

Steve Stricker to beat Webb Simpson -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
This is another matchup that Stricker dominates: 9-2-1 over the last 12 months and 6-2-0 in rd3 over the same period. Simpson is certainly in better form that Garrigus, but he has broken 70 in rd3 just once since the Tour left the West Coast in February and he has just one top-10 finish in his last eight starts.

Ian Poulter to beat Marc Warren -163 @ SkyBet, Bet365 and Coral [available generally]
Surprised to see Warren shoot a low score yesterday - he had only previously played in one event in the U.S. - the 2012 U.S. Open. It is a good pairing for him to be partnered with Poulter, but in their last 35 common events, he has shot the lower score in rd3 just three times and never in rd4. That is why he ranks outside the top-100 in the World Rankings and Poults in the top-20.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Snedeker tb English -138; Hoffman tb Fraser -120]

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Kaymer(+100) over Garcia
Scott(-130) over Kuchar
Mickelson(+135) over Woods

GL

 

[cole]

Round 3

Z. Johnson +115 / Westwood

Clark -115 / Molinari

 

[LA Burns]

looks a little like a sucker bet but.....

lefty +145 vs tiger


gl - LA Burns

 

[Another Steve]

Round 4 Match Ups
M KAYMER (RND 4) +170 (M KAYMER (RND 4) vrs T WOODS (RND 4))
B SNEDEKER (RND 4) -125 (S GARCIA (RND 4) vrs B SNEDEKER (RND 4))
S PIERCY (RND 4) -105 (S PIERCY (RND 4) vrs B WEEKLEY (RND 4))
Z JOHNSON (RND 4) -120 (Z JOHNSON (RND 4) vrs B HAAS (RND 4))
D JOHNSON (RND 4) -110 (S STRICKER (RND 4) vrs D JOHNSON (RND 4))
J DUFNER (RND 4) -125 (J FURYK (RND 4) vrs J DUFNER (RND 4))