Round 4 plays (4pts):
Roberto Castro to beat Marc Warren +100 @ Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Boyle Sports and Coral [available generally]
Warren surprised again yesterday, but I will oppose him again as he starts the final round in 12th place in just his third Major Championship - best finish of 65th in his two previous Majors. Castro has been in good form recently - 2nd in the AT&T National and 6th in the Canadian Open two weeks ago - so I'll back him to cope with the Major Sunday pressure better.
Webb Simpson to beat Charley Hoffman -125 @ Stan James [available generally]
Hoffman ranks 172nd on the PGA Tour in Final Round Scoring Average this year, so it is not surprising that Simpson is a perfect 6-0-0 h2h in rd4 against him in 2013. With a best finish of 27th in Major Championships, I don't see him performing much better in this final round and defeating the 2012 U.S. Open champion.
David Toms to beat Ryo Ishikawa -120 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
Another matchup featuring a Major Champion and a player who has struggled in Majors. It may be over a decade since Toms won this event, but he has a top-5 finish in the Majors in each of the last two seasons. Ishikawa has a best finish of 20th in 16 Majors and has missed the cut in five of his last seven. In terms of form, Toms is in much better form than his opponent: he finished 16th last week whereas Ishikawa has played in each of the last seven weeks and reached the final round just once. Toms' game should clearly hold up better under Sunday Major presure.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Justin Rose to beat Graeme McDowell -105; Rose tb Cabrera-Bello -163]