- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,197
- 371
- 83
- 74
| FINAL | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timberwolves (42-32, 15-23 Away) | 24 | 28 | 19 | 37 | 108 |
76ers (42-30, 24-11 Home) | 32 | 27 | 39 | 22 |
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PHI 1Q
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
<tbody>
</tbody>
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,197
- 371
- 83
- 74
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,197
- 371
- 83
- 74
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,197
- 371
- 83
- 74
Philadelphia 76ers guard Markelle Fultz will make a stunning return to the court on Monday after missing almost the entirety of his rookie season with a mysterious shoulder injury.
https://sports.yahoo.com/markelle-fultz-play-sixers-months-shoulder-injury-213336034.html
coming off the bench...should see about 15 minutes
https://sports.yahoo.com/markelle-fultz-play-sixers-months-shoulder-injury-213336034.html
coming off the bench...should see about 15 minutes
I had a feeling this wasn?t good tonight. Nuggs are doing well lately. I only put 5x on the play
Sorry guys. I don?t think the Sixers have allowed a team to get anywhere close to 9-0 jump to start the game on their home floor all season. Just a bad night, but they bounced back. The Sixers top 7 rotation guys are playing better than anyone in the league at the moment, so I?m not surprised that they came back to win rather comfortably. Just a poor start.
4.5 tonight vs Knicks. Pretty much a gimme I think BUT last time they met on the 15th @ NY, 32-32
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Ok, I'm going to try to boil this down quickly, because there isn't much time before tip. To be up front, I played the Sixers in the interest of sticking with this trend, but I played it small and I don't feel great about it for the following reasons...
The absence of Embiid is MASSIVE for this team. I can't state that enough. We have Amir Johnson starting in his place tonight, who was questionable coming in after sitting out the past few games with the flu. We all know that your first few days of physical activity after having the flu are rough, so I don't expect him to be in there for many minutes. Brett Brown is saying that he expects his team to play faster without Embiid, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will score more points. They only managed 51 points in the 2H against the Knicks who can't guard anybody and were also without Courtney Lee, one of their better defenders. Losing Embiid's production on offense is not replaceable at even a small fraction with anyone off the bench at his position. Embiid leads his team in +/- Net Per 100 Possessions at +16.7, while Johnson sits at -7.5 in the same category. That is not just a huge drop off, that's a titanic drop off. Brown's best bet is to get Johnson out of there early and go with a smaller lineup down low which includes some combination of Ilyasova and Saric or Saric in there with smaller wings. Brown is a smart coach and I expect him to figure this out quickly, but how quickly is the question. I will be watching this game closely for his substitution patters without Embiid as this may provide an opportunity for an edge later in the game or in future games, while the books are slow to adjust. From the looks of the total, they have already made some adjustment, most likely based on Brown comments.
Now we have to add in the Atlanta factor here... Not exactly the most distraction-free city for young players in the NBA and the Sixers, specifically Ben Simmons, does not exactly let on that he's the most disciplined of younger players, judging from this conversation caught online here:
https://www.ajc.com/sports/76ers-ben-simmons-trolls-hawks-while-playing-pubg/uc6y6jJbchjco3HUxeFhkO/
Now how the Hawks react to that is another question, a factor which would possibly carry more weight in this game if Schr?der weren't being held out (*ahem* sitting due to injury). Interesting that he's stayed on the bench in 3 of 4 games for Atlanta for "tweaking" his ankle, this injury conveniently after he dropped a career high 41 points in a surprising win in Utah (yes, surprising for the Hawks management as well).
Now, I'm not saying that the Hawks aren't capable of some form of revenge for that Simmons joke, but it makes it tough when 3 regular starters are out, including their top two players in Bazemore and the German. A starting lineup of Isaiah Taylor, Damion Lee, Taurean Prince, John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon does not inspire much confidence in that regard, but will it be the Sixers who remain uninspired in party-city Atlanta tonight knowing that at an 75-80% effort will probably get the job done tonight. There is injured star player motivation factor here, which is that the team tends to rally in their first game around their first game without their superstar, but again, the question is, will the effort be there early on in the first quarter. The final factor that brings a negative to the Sixers situation is steady incorporation of Fultz into their offense. Thus far he's a drastic net negative when he's on the court (and I'm not referring to him injuring Embiid tongue in cheek), despite posting decent statistics in his two games back. The main issue here is that his presence in addition to the loss of Embiid initiates a big shakeup in the rotation and rattles the exceptional flow/rhythm that the team has been in for the past two weeks. Again, this all comes back to Brown in my opinion and how he handles the situation. This will be the biggest test thus far for this coach of the year candidate and I'll be watching closely.
PHI 1Q -2.5 (-115) 3x
ps...so much for condensing that into a quick explanation. If I hadn't made this bet already, I'd probably make it smaller or just lay off all together. It's one of those tricky situations where it's always better to take a back seat and observe rather than risk the profits that got us to this point in following the trend.
The absence of Embiid is MASSIVE for this team. I can't state that enough. We have Amir Johnson starting in his place tonight, who was questionable coming in after sitting out the past few games with the flu. We all know that your first few days of physical activity after having the flu are rough, so I don't expect him to be in there for many minutes. Brett Brown is saying that he expects his team to play faster without Embiid, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will score more points. They only managed 51 points in the 2H against the Knicks who can't guard anybody and were also without Courtney Lee, one of their better defenders. Losing Embiid's production on offense is not replaceable at even a small fraction with anyone off the bench at his position. Embiid leads his team in +/- Net Per 100 Possessions at +16.7, while Johnson sits at -7.5 in the same category. That is not just a huge drop off, that's a titanic drop off. Brown's best bet is to get Johnson out of there early and go with a smaller lineup down low which includes some combination of Ilyasova and Saric or Saric in there with smaller wings. Brown is a smart coach and I expect him to figure this out quickly, but how quickly is the question. I will be watching this game closely for his substitution patters without Embiid as this may provide an opportunity for an edge later in the game or in future games, while the books are slow to adjust. From the looks of the total, they have already made some adjustment, most likely based on Brown comments.
Now we have to add in the Atlanta factor here... Not exactly the most distraction-free city for young players in the NBA and the Sixers, specifically Ben Simmons, does not exactly let on that he's the most disciplined of younger players, judging from this conversation caught online here:
https://www.ajc.com/sports/76ers-ben-simmons-trolls-hawks-while-playing-pubg/uc6y6jJbchjco3HUxeFhkO/
Now how the Hawks react to that is another question, a factor which would possibly carry more weight in this game if Schr?der weren't being held out (*ahem* sitting due to injury). Interesting that he's stayed on the bench in 3 of 4 games for Atlanta for "tweaking" his ankle, this injury conveniently after he dropped a career high 41 points in a surprising win in Utah (yes, surprising for the Hawks management as well).
Now, I'm not saying that the Hawks aren't capable of some form of revenge for that Simmons joke, but it makes it tough when 3 regular starters are out, including their top two players in Bazemore and the German. A starting lineup of Isaiah Taylor, Damion Lee, Taurean Prince, John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon does not inspire much confidence in that regard, but will it be the Sixers who remain uninspired in party-city Atlanta tonight knowing that at an 75-80% effort will probably get the job done tonight. There is injured star player motivation factor here, which is that the team tends to rally in their first game around their first game without their superstar, but again, the question is, will the effort be there early on in the first quarter. The final factor that brings a negative to the Sixers situation is steady incorporation of Fultz into their offense. Thus far he's a drastic net negative when he's on the court (and I'm not referring to him injuring Embiid tongue in cheek), despite posting decent statistics in his two games back. The main issue here is that his presence in addition to the loss of Embiid initiates a big shakeup in the rotation and rattles the exceptional flow/rhythm that the team has been in for the past two weeks. Again, this all comes back to Brown in my opinion and how he handles the situation. This will be the biggest test thus far for this coach of the year candidate and I'll be watching closely.
PHI 1Q -2.5 (-115) 3x
ps...so much for condensing that into a quick explanation. If I hadn't made this bet already, I'd probably make it smaller or just lay off all together. It's one of those tricky situations where it's always better to take a back seat and observe rather than risk the profits that got us to this point in following the trend.
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On a side note, I would NOT consider putting Philly in a parlay with any other teams playing a tanker tonight because of the aforementioned reasons. From a Player Prop perspective, I would keep an eye on Dario Saric tonight, who I expect will step up big time in Embiid's absence. I'll probably make a small play on him tonight, especially considering that Amir Johnson is coming off the flu and shouldn't register much playing time.
