Preview & plays:
The Tour finally heads for the mainland and does so in style. Eight of the world's top-10 are competing in the Phoenix Open - just the European duo of Westwood and Monty stay away - and the course is one of the best, and hardest, on Tour. Seven of the thirteen champions since Scottsdale first hosted this event in 1987 have won Major championships and of the rest, Parnevik and Mickelson have gone very close. The Tour has reached full throttle this week.
The event is especially well-remembered for the 1999 staging. It was this year that a half-ton boulder was deemed a 'loose impediment' when nine members of the gallery moved it and it was this year that a man was caught with a gun in Tiger Woods' gallery. After skipping last year's event, Tiger is back and in need of a victory; he hasn't won on the PGA Tour since the Canadian Open four months ago. It must seem like four years for Els since he converted being into contention into a Tour win; he has only had two wins in the last 24 months, but in that time he has finished 2nd eight times and 3rd seven times.
The TPC of Scottsdale is a par-71 course, measuring just over 7,000 yards. It is a links-style course in the middle of the desert, which causes it to play much less than the recorded yardage. With the scrub off the fairway and water on the closing holes, there will be premium on accuracy rather than length off the tee, but given this field and the history of the event, it is very unlikely that there will be a surprise winner. Maybe even Mr. Woods, but at odds of 2/1 is not backable.
The three outright picks are David Duval, Ernie Els and Justin Leonard. Duval's record on this course is not particularly impressive with a record of 14th, 27th, 18th and 30th in the last four years, but Duval is still upbeat about this course: "I like playing here, and I'm surprised I haven't contended a little more seriously than I have". But when three of those years have been dogged by poor final rounds - 78, 73 and 74 - and when last year he had trouble with some of the spectators during his final round, maybe it isn't all bad. He has game has looked in decent shape since his comeback last October and on his favored Bermuda greens this week, he should be in contention throughout.
The next two are purely place bets given their inability to win events! Els' last five events have yielded no wins but five top-four finishes and with a record of 48% top-5 finishes in the last three years, he can surely at least contend again. The problem appears to be more mental than with his game and as long as he doesn't get frustrated, he will win those place bets. Has not played the course in recent years as he has focused more on competing in South Africa and Australia at this time of the year so it is not that he does not like the course as the setup is perfect for his game.
Justin Leonard won the TPC at Sawgrass in 1998 and then had six 2nd-place finishes before his next win, last year's Texas Open. He has similarly finished 2nd twice in his last five visits to Scottsdale, including losing a playoff to Phil Mickelson and 40,000 of his supporters. With accuracy and a preference for Bermuda greens, Leonard looks a good shot for another 2nd place!
Outright plays:
David Duval to win e/w 12/1 @
First Stake
Ernie Els to be placed [top-4] 5/2 @
Olympic or
Centrebet
Justin Leonard to be placed [top-4] 10/1 @
Centrebet
Can't see there being a long-shot winner with such a high quality field, but agree with your Leonard selection Ian and wish First Stake/Multisports did bring back place betting. Can be very useful for certain players
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 01-25-2001).]
