Phoenix Open
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
first weeks spread bets.
although there is a large number of bets available, by using Stan;s ratings and some ideas of my own i can only come up with one definite play.
i will post any others on the site as the week goes on and prices are updated.
Bet 1 - Sell Carlos Franco @ 9 with www.sportingindex.com for 2.5 points
reasons. this is a course that demands accuracy from off the tee and to the green. it isnt a course that will suit carlos too much.
he may do ok but i cant see him being top 20 and i believe at least 4 of these other guys will
olazabal/stricker/cink/allenby/flesch/mediate/sutton/calcavecchia/garcia
only 4 need to beat him for a profit of 9 pts, if he 4th i lose 1 pt. 3rd - 11pts, 2nd - 21pts and 1st - 41pts.
further bets as the week goes on
although there is a large number of bets available, by using Stan;s ratings and some ideas of my own i can only come up with one definite play.
i will post any others on the site as the week goes on and prices are updated.
Bet 1 - Sell Carlos Franco @ 9 with www.sportingindex.com for 2.5 points
reasons. this is a course that demands accuracy from off the tee and to the green. it isnt a course that will suit carlos too much.
he may do ok but i cant see him being top 20 and i believe at least 4 of these other guys will
olazabal/stricker/cink/allenby/flesch/mediate/sutton/calcavecchia/garcia
only 4 need to beat him for a profit of 9 pts, if he 4th i lose 1 pt. 3rd - 11pts, 2nd - 21pts and 1st - 41pts.
further bets as the week goes on
Notah Begay +145 over Fred Couples (Wagerstreet)
More of an anti-Freddie play with the unusual cool, damp weather will not help his back. Not that that Notah can be a factor in the tourney, but I could see Fred back in Dallas watching the SB.
[This message has been edited by dailybiblestudy (edited 01-24-2001).]
More of an anti-Freddie play with the unusual cool, damp weather will not help his back. Not that that Notah can be a factor in the tourney, but I could see Fred back in Dallas watching the SB.
[This message has been edited by dailybiblestudy (edited 01-24-2001).]
72-hole plays:
Stuart Appleby to beat Notah Begay -135 @ WSEX [3 units]
Definitely more a play against Begay who missed the cut at the Sony Open last week and missed the cut on his only appearance here. It seems a long time since he was challenging for the lead and I cannot see it happening here
Stewart Cink to beat Paul Azinger -110 @ WSEX
Both these players missed the cut last week; especially disappointing for Zinger as defending champion. Decisive difference is their form on this course: Cink has had two successive top-10 finishes, Zinger has missed the cut in three of the last four years
Fred Couples to beat Notah Begay -135 @ Intertops [3 units]
Not the competitive edge that there was, but even Freddie should feature in the top-30 this week and easily beat Begay in the process
Looks like we're on the opposite side of Freddie, dailybiblestudy
Maybe we should just take the scalp [Begay +150 @ Moneyplays] and both win
Stuart Appleby to beat Notah Begay -135 @ WSEX [3 units]
Definitely more a play against Begay who missed the cut at the Sony Open last week and missed the cut on his only appearance here. It seems a long time since he was challenging for the lead and I cannot see it happening here
Stewart Cink to beat Paul Azinger -110 @ WSEX
Both these players missed the cut last week; especially disappointing for Zinger as defending champion. Decisive difference is their form on this course: Cink has had two successive top-10 finishes, Zinger has missed the cut in three of the last four years
Fred Couples to beat Notah Begay -135 @ Intertops [3 units]
Not the competitive edge that there was, but even Freddie should feature in the top-30 this week and easily beat Begay in the process
Looks like we're on the opposite side of Freddie, dailybiblestudy
Good Luck to everyone-hope your short games are up to par this week!!
My Plays: @ Olympic
To Win: Sutton 40-1
Weir 30-1
To Show:Mediate 10-1
Leonard 8-1
72 Hole:
Duval -115 Over Mickelson
-Lefty's back outweighs home court
Weir -115 Over Garcia
-Backing this lefty this week
Sutton -110 Over Parnevik
Janzen -120 Over Chalmers ***BEST BET
-Lee likes this course
My Plays: @ Olympic
To Win: Sutton 40-1
Weir 30-1
To Show:Mediate 10-1
Leonard 8-1
72 Hole:
Duval -115 Over Mickelson
-Lefty's back outweighs home court
Weir -115 Over Garcia
-Backing this lefty this week
Sutton -110 Over Parnevik
Janzen -120 Over Chalmers ***BEST BET
-Lee likes this course
With 15 former Phoenix Champions taking part along with last year's top-16
money winners and a host of international players - this is probably the
strongest event of the season so far and I will be looking for some clues to
the Masters here this week as a quality player will need to put in a quality
performance to score here this week. I may have an e/w bet on a couple of
dark-horse's but I think this tournament will be won by a player of high
quality who has perhaps won a Major or at least contended in a few big 'uns.
I've summarised by choices at the bottom...haven't had time to search around
for odds yet.
Nobody has successfully defended this title since 1975 which kind of puts me
off Tom Lehman (25/1 Bluesq) although being a Scottsdale resident, combined
with his good
performance in Hawaii then he has to be among the favourites. He also won
the inaugural Williams World Challenge in Scottsdale last January, making
him 2-for-2 in his hometown. I just thought he missed a few putts he should
have made last week so I will be watching to see how he fares with the
putter before stepping in. He is a player who can usually hold his nerve but
when the competition is top-class he has the tendency to sway a little
bet...watch out for the neck twitch !
Billy Mayfair (125/1 Bet247) was 10th here last year and finished runner-up
to Singh in
'95. He will definitely be a contender if he brings his game as he is a very
popular figure around here and at the odds on offer it is worth taking a
chance that he has shaken off any early-season rustiness.
Mark Calcavecchia (66/1 Hills) hasn't won in 3 years which is enough to put
me off but he
has been playing 'fairly' well lately and loves the course here after wins
in '89 & '92. He was 7th here last year but I read on a site somewhere that
he is being troubled slightly by a back or shoulder complaint which has kept
him out of action so far this season. I would hold fire on backing him until
you are sure he is 100%. He could be a player on the slide and if he doesn't
play well here then that would confirm that view IMO.
Back in '99 Rocco Mediate (50/1 Eurobet) beat a quality field here to vault
himself to no.1
on the all-time Phoenix Open money list and followed this up last year with
a runners-up spot to Lehman. He played well in the season-opening Mercedes
and is definitely a guy to keep on the right-side of but he just lacks that
little extra something that I think it will take to win here this week but
he has a better case than a lot of the big names and is sure to be in
contention at some point.
Phil Mickelson (18/1 Eurobet) will surely get a strong following around here
and is a
proven winner but he didn't particularly impress me in the Mercedes and is
messing around with new clubs which I find a strange thing to do so early
into the season. He could take a while to get used to them and I would be
very wary of backing him at big odds. Once he gets used to the clubs that
could be a different story but I would recommend a watching brief and he has
put in a few dire rounds here in recent years.
Ernie Els (12/1 generally) is the model of consistency so far this year but
he doesn't
usually play here which just puts me off slightly although the course should
lay up quite nicely for him. Conditions should suit him and this could be
the tournament to get him off the mark this term but as usual his odds are
probably a little too short to be tempting. However, he is sure to be up
there unless he really hates the course but I personally think he is a top-5
candidate for almost every tournament he enters nowadays.
Forget David Duval (12/1 generally) as he stormed off the course last year
after being
hassled by the crowd for 'conservative play' and this crowd has a memory, I
would expect him to perform well but the crowd will be against him because
of last year. He is mates with Tiger now though and has been practising a
lot with him so if some of that rubs off on him he could stick one up the
crowd regardless as he is usually fairly ice-cool...this crowd is something
else though, especially with a few Bud's inside them on Superbowl
Sunday.Duval may want to stick one up the fans so it will be interesting to
see how he reacts.
TIger Woods (2/1 generally) said he wouldn't play here after a 'fan' who was
following him
around was found with a gun in his rucksack last year but who can forget the
hole-in-1 he scored here a few years back when the crowd went wild. I think
he will go close to winning here this week if he can shake off his rustiness
although there is the worry that he may suffer a slight 'bounce' after such
a superb season last year but he is the one to beat as always and they don't
come any more 'Major' than Tiger but the ODDS !!!
One guy who has rained on the Tiger party in recent years is Vijay Singh
(33/1 Bluesq) who
won this back in '95 and has been playing some solid golf lately with an
average of 68.83 following some consistent performances when 3rd in the
Mercedes and another good display in Hawaii. With his positive mental
associations, combined with the fact that he is starting to putt better I
think he is the smart choice and probably a fairly decent price. He is a
proven Major winner and the crowd will not give him a hard time. He is my
idea of the likeliest winner and a value win bet to boot.
Parnevik (66/1 Bet247) was runner-up in '97 and scored here in '98 in famous
style while
lighting up a huge stogie coming down the last. He has not played very well
this year so far, has split with his caddie and can't seriously be
considered a betting proposition.
David Toms (66/1 Hills) could be a dark-horse to keep an eye on here. He was
going great
guns and only 1 shot off the lead in the Mercedes before unfortunately
landing in a hazard and taking a double bogey. He played the last five holes
in 4 over but he is a solid player, accurate and definitely one to watch
closely in the first few rounds.
Another dark horse to keep an eye on is Kevin Sutherland (150/1 Hills) who
is my idea of
the best e/w bet at a price. He shot a superb -14 in Tucson which was one
shot more than Garrett Willis. Sutherland has played well here in the past
as witnessed by a 10th here last year and his style of play will suit this
course.
Robert Allenby (66/1 general) took Tom Lehman to the wire last year, making
bogey on the
finishing hole to miss out on a playoff. He went on to win twice in 2000 and
should have more confidence in a similar situation this year. He has been
playing fairly well without setting the world on fire in the Mercedes and
the Sony Open but this could be his chance to get off the mark in 2001.
Definitely one to watch this week.
Tim Clark (80/1 Hills) - anyone heard of him ? He was leading the Tucson
with a 67 after
the first round but faded away slightly (although not disgraced) with rounds
of 73-71& 69. He is from Scottsdale and again may be worth a bet in a 3-ball
for the early rounds. I will be keeping an eye on him as I know nothing at
all about him so he really is a dark-horse.
Rory Sabbatini (100/1 Bluesq) is from nearby Tucson and finished 2nd in the
Mercedes. He
has probably suffered a reaction to that near-miss but still played fairly
well in Hawaii. It remains to be seen whether he has fully recovered from
the mental letdown he must have suffered at Kapalua but he could be worth
keeping an eye on back in his home state.
Finally, a potential star of the future from nearby Tempe to keep a very
close eye on is the US Amateur Champion Jeff Quinney (200/1 Hills). This guy
is a quality
young player and the crowd loves to get behind their young champions. If you
can get a 3-ball price on this guy then bite the bookies hand off...also
worth keeping an eye on with a view to betting on the 'top-amaeur' market at
Augusta for the Masters.
I better quit now before I name the entire field ;-) My best bets would
be -:
Vijay Singh - e/w @ 33/1 (Bluesq)
Robert Allenby - e/w @ 66/1(General)
Billy Mayfair - e/w @ 125/1 (Bet247)
A match bet multiple that takes my eye with Ladbrokes -:
Robert Allenby (2nd last yr) @ 9/10 to beat Paul Azinger who had an abysmal
Sony Open
Steve Flesch (7th last yr) @ 9/10 to beat Hal Sutton who is suffering from a
serious back problem
money winners and a host of international players - this is probably the
strongest event of the season so far and I will be looking for some clues to
the Masters here this week as a quality player will need to put in a quality
performance to score here this week. I may have an e/w bet on a couple of
dark-horse's but I think this tournament will be won by a player of high
quality who has perhaps won a Major or at least contended in a few big 'uns.
I've summarised by choices at the bottom...haven't had time to search around
for odds yet.
Nobody has successfully defended this title since 1975 which kind of puts me
off Tom Lehman (25/1 Bluesq) although being a Scottsdale resident, combined
with his good
performance in Hawaii then he has to be among the favourites. He also won
the inaugural Williams World Challenge in Scottsdale last January, making
him 2-for-2 in his hometown. I just thought he missed a few putts he should
have made last week so I will be watching to see how he fares with the
putter before stepping in. He is a player who can usually hold his nerve but
when the competition is top-class he has the tendency to sway a little
bet...watch out for the neck twitch !
Billy Mayfair (125/1 Bet247) was 10th here last year and finished runner-up
to Singh in
'95. He will definitely be a contender if he brings his game as he is a very
popular figure around here and at the odds on offer it is worth taking a
chance that he has shaken off any early-season rustiness.
Mark Calcavecchia (66/1 Hills) hasn't won in 3 years which is enough to put
me off but he
has been playing 'fairly' well lately and loves the course here after wins
in '89 & '92. He was 7th here last year but I read on a site somewhere that
he is being troubled slightly by a back or shoulder complaint which has kept
him out of action so far this season. I would hold fire on backing him until
you are sure he is 100%. He could be a player on the slide and if he doesn't
play well here then that would confirm that view IMO.
Back in '99 Rocco Mediate (50/1 Eurobet) beat a quality field here to vault
himself to no.1
on the all-time Phoenix Open money list and followed this up last year with
a runners-up spot to Lehman. He played well in the season-opening Mercedes
and is definitely a guy to keep on the right-side of but he just lacks that
little extra something that I think it will take to win here this week but
he has a better case than a lot of the big names and is sure to be in
contention at some point.
Phil Mickelson (18/1 Eurobet) will surely get a strong following around here
and is a
proven winner but he didn't particularly impress me in the Mercedes and is
messing around with new clubs which I find a strange thing to do so early
into the season. He could take a while to get used to them and I would be
very wary of backing him at big odds. Once he gets used to the clubs that
could be a different story but I would recommend a watching brief and he has
put in a few dire rounds here in recent years.
Ernie Els (12/1 generally) is the model of consistency so far this year but
he doesn't
usually play here which just puts me off slightly although the course should
lay up quite nicely for him. Conditions should suit him and this could be
the tournament to get him off the mark this term but as usual his odds are
probably a little too short to be tempting. However, he is sure to be up
there unless he really hates the course but I personally think he is a top-5
candidate for almost every tournament he enters nowadays.
Forget David Duval (12/1 generally) as he stormed off the course last year
after being
hassled by the crowd for 'conservative play' and this crowd has a memory, I
would expect him to perform well but the crowd will be against him because
of last year. He is mates with Tiger now though and has been practising a
lot with him so if some of that rubs off on him he could stick one up the
crowd regardless as he is usually fairly ice-cool...this crowd is something
else though, especially with a few Bud's inside them on Superbowl
Sunday.Duval may want to stick one up the fans so it will be interesting to
see how he reacts.
TIger Woods (2/1 generally) said he wouldn't play here after a 'fan' who was
following him
around was found with a gun in his rucksack last year but who can forget the
hole-in-1 he scored here a few years back when the crowd went wild. I think
he will go close to winning here this week if he can shake off his rustiness
although there is the worry that he may suffer a slight 'bounce' after such
a superb season last year but he is the one to beat as always and they don't
come any more 'Major' than Tiger but the ODDS !!!
One guy who has rained on the Tiger party in recent years is Vijay Singh
(33/1 Bluesq) who
won this back in '95 and has been playing some solid golf lately with an
average of 68.83 following some consistent performances when 3rd in the
Mercedes and another good display in Hawaii. With his positive mental
associations, combined with the fact that he is starting to putt better I
think he is the smart choice and probably a fairly decent price. He is a
proven Major winner and the crowd will not give him a hard time. He is my
idea of the likeliest winner and a value win bet to boot.
Parnevik (66/1 Bet247) was runner-up in '97 and scored here in '98 in famous
style while
lighting up a huge stogie coming down the last. He has not played very well
this year so far, has split with his caddie and can't seriously be
considered a betting proposition.
David Toms (66/1 Hills) could be a dark-horse to keep an eye on here. He was
going great
guns and only 1 shot off the lead in the Mercedes before unfortunately
landing in a hazard and taking a double bogey. He played the last five holes
in 4 over but he is a solid player, accurate and definitely one to watch
closely in the first few rounds.
Another dark horse to keep an eye on is Kevin Sutherland (150/1 Hills) who
is my idea of
the best e/w bet at a price. He shot a superb -14 in Tucson which was one
shot more than Garrett Willis. Sutherland has played well here in the past
as witnessed by a 10th here last year and his style of play will suit this
course.
Robert Allenby (66/1 general) took Tom Lehman to the wire last year, making
bogey on the
finishing hole to miss out on a playoff. He went on to win twice in 2000 and
should have more confidence in a similar situation this year. He has been
playing fairly well without setting the world on fire in the Mercedes and
the Sony Open but this could be his chance to get off the mark in 2001.
Definitely one to watch this week.
Tim Clark (80/1 Hills) - anyone heard of him ? He was leading the Tucson
with a 67 after
the first round but faded away slightly (although not disgraced) with rounds
of 73-71& 69. He is from Scottsdale and again may be worth a bet in a 3-ball
for the early rounds. I will be keeping an eye on him as I know nothing at
all about him so he really is a dark-horse.
Rory Sabbatini (100/1 Bluesq) is from nearby Tucson and finished 2nd in the
Mercedes. He
has probably suffered a reaction to that near-miss but still played fairly
well in Hawaii. It remains to be seen whether he has fully recovered from
the mental letdown he must have suffered at Kapalua but he could be worth
keeping an eye on back in his home state.
Finally, a potential star of the future from nearby Tempe to keep a very
close eye on is the US Amateur Champion Jeff Quinney (200/1 Hills). This guy
is a quality
young player and the crowd loves to get behind their young champions. If you
can get a 3-ball price on this guy then bite the bookies hand off...also
worth keeping an eye on with a view to betting on the 'top-amaeur' market at
Augusta for the Masters.
I better quit now before I name the entire field ;-) My best bets would
be -:
Vijay Singh - e/w @ 33/1 (Bluesq)
Robert Allenby - e/w @ 66/1(General)
Billy Mayfair - e/w @ 125/1 (Bet247)
A match bet multiple that takes my eye with Ladbrokes -:
Robert Allenby (2nd last yr) @ 9/10 to beat Paul Azinger who had an abysmal
Sony Open
Steve Flesch (7th last yr) @ 9/10 to beat Hal Sutton who is suffering from a
serious back problem
ok guys, here's my thoughts for the Phoenix..
I like Mike Weir a lot this week, have backed him to beat Leonard -110 at Carib, and Love -110 at WSEX.
Love going for 3balls on day one, taking the outsiders, or the middle guy at 2/1 or better...
Centrebet
Fryatt (v Glasson & May) 3.45
Daly (v Andrade & Stricker) 3.80
Hills
Di Marco (v Singh & Geiberger) 3.00
Janzen (v Mickelson & Purtzer) 3.00
I like Mike Weir a lot this week, have backed him to beat Leonard -110 at Carib, and Love -110 at WSEX.
Love going for 3balls on day one, taking the outsiders, or the middle guy at 2/1 or better...
Centrebet
Fryatt (v Glasson & May) 3.45
Daly (v Andrade & Stricker) 3.80
Hills
Di Marco (v Singh & Geiberger) 3.00
Janzen (v Mickelson & Purtzer) 3.00
Spotform
Welcome to the fold - you are who I think you are, are you not?
Sorry if that sounds a bit cryptic
Welcome to the fold - you are who I think you are, are you not?
Sorry if that sounds a bit cryptic
Nice start....
Weir leads by two & five strokes after day one.
Daly won his three ball, May & Di Marco tied (win half value of ticket), while Janzen missed by a stroke.
Interesting note on my outsiders in 3balls plan, all four outsiders (Daly, Fryatt, Geiberger, Purtzer) won or shared the best score.
Weir leads by two & five strokes after day one.
Daly won his three ball, May & Di Marco tied (win half value of ticket), while Janzen missed by a stroke.
Interesting note on my outsiders in 3balls plan, all four outsiders (Daly, Fryatt, Geiberger, Purtzer) won or shared the best score.
I know everyone wants to see Tiger\Ernie and Duval--BUT.... did USA show any shots from anyone besides these three over their 2 hr coverage???
There were some great young guys shooting great rounds out there.
There were some great young guys shooting great rounds out there.
and people laugh when I say I don't think Woods is particularly great for golf....
A great shot is a great shot, no matter whose stick is comes from.
A great shot is a great shot, no matter whose stick is comes from.
... and they don't come much greater than Andrew Magee's drive at the par-4 17th which hit Steve Pate and bounced into the hole
1st day results 0-1
1st round Match
Toms loses to Calc by 4
Calc reels off 5 straight birdies on back nine. Awesome display.
72 hole standings
Toms/Calc 4 down
Janzen/Chalmers 4 down
Weir/Garcia 1 up
Toms/Chalmers 1 down
Exotics
to place: Flesch hanging in there
3ball combo: loss>Mayfair birdied last hole to beat Toms by 1 for lone loss in combo.
Notes: May have took too strong of position on Toms in this tourney and this Chalmers kid refuses to go away.
Boris:Could not agree with you more on Tiger issue.
1st round Match
Toms loses to Calc by 4
Calc reels off 5 straight birdies on back nine. Awesome display.
72 hole standings
Toms/Calc 4 down
Janzen/Chalmers 4 down
Weir/Garcia 1 up
Toms/Chalmers 1 down
Exotics
to place: Flesch hanging in there
3ball combo: loss>Mayfair birdied last hole to beat Toms by 1 for lone loss in combo.
Notes: May have took too strong of position on Toms in this tourney and this Chalmers kid refuses to go away.
Boris:Could not agree with you more on Tiger issue.
One player I was impressed with was Ed Fryatt - he is now 18 under par for his last 4 rounds here and is obviously well suited. He has a lot of bottle and once beat Westwood in a playoff, he has won on the Buy.com tour and last year finished T3rd in the MCI and T5th in the Greater Hartford as well as 7th here (would have been a lot higher without that 73 in round 1)
Most books have him at 66-1 although Sporting Odds go 100-1, but I would rather go to Bet247 and bet at 50-1 without Woods ew 1/4 4 places
Most books have him at 66-1 although Sporting Odds go 100-1, but I would rather go to Bet247 and bet at 50-1 without Woods ew 1/4 4 places
3ball combo @ 1st Stake
Funk-Dunlap-K Sutherland-Jiminez pays 39/1
Note 1st 3 matches should be concluded prior to start of Jiminez,Garcia,Green match.
"IF" 1st 3 matches hit play Garcia for 10 units if 1st 3 involve tie reduce Garcia to 5 units.
Funk-Dunlap-K Sutherland-Jiminez pays 39/1
Note 1st 3 matches should be concluded prior to start of Jiminez,Garcia,Green match.
"IF" 1st 3 matches hit play Garcia for 10 units if 1st 3 involve tie reduce Garcia to 5 units.
don't go for many 2nd round 3balls as a rule, but thought these looked OK...
Micheel (v Lickliter & Hughes) at 3.50 (all average players)
Appleby (v Couples & Price) at 3.25
Chances are they'll both go belly up, but right now I don't care too much - have got a 50/1 shot in the final of the tennis. Allez Clement!!
Micheel (v Lickliter & Hughes) at 3.50 (all average players)
Appleby (v Couples & Price) at 3.25
Chances are they'll both go belly up, but right now I don't care too much - have got a 50/1 shot in the final of the tennis. Allez Clement!!
