Phoenix Open

[boris]

DTB,
I honestly believe that Chalmers will be the next Aussie to win in the States, most likely this season - very, very good player.

Mind you, he'll have to do it before Adam Scott gets there.....

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Agree again Boris.Great game and great attitude.Cashed several tickets on him last year.

 

[FatBoy]

2nd rd play for 1x;
Cink -110 vs Nobilo @Sportsbetting (Starnet)

 

[boris]

Appleby winner, Micheel shot -3 but only came second in the threeball.

2-2-2 but well ahead as all were outsiders, and the ties pay half value of ticket.

Not such a great day for Weir, dropping behind Love , but Leonard likely to miss the cut.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd round matches 1-2
Mediate beats Price by 7
Flesch loses to Price by 1 and Calc by 11

Flesch bogied last 3 to fall out of place race and get nipped by Price however could have eagled last 3 and not caught Calc.

Notes Will update 72 holes at conclusion of day.2nd round was suspended with several out there.

Very strange day in deed where none of big 4 Tiger,Duval,Els or Mick broke par yet Calc and Striker shoot a combined 20 under.Even Crenshaw shoots -3.
May conclude selections for remainder of tourney.Raining there now with temps in mid 50's for today and tomorrow.

3ball match was total white wash.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

did find one wager I like this morning.
72 hole continuation at Oly
Mediate +120 over Verplank currently 1 down.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Anyone think Calc can blow this lead?Been going back over the years and he has followed rounds of 65 or less with many in the 70's and with the weather and delays on tee times we might see big turn around.Feel a little stupid trying to beat him again after he has served notice on me 2 days in a row but was thinking there are some pretty good win odds out there if he falters.
Considering Mediate. While best odds to win I could find at my outs were 11/1 I noticed WSEX has win contracts on him in their interactives at $6 which equates to bout 16 1/2 to one.Not a bad bang for a buck.
Cink contracts are $8 equating to 12 1/2 to 1 which is not bad compared to 1st Stake @ 8/1.


[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 01-27-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

I'd say Calc will blow it. On top of DTB's report of Calc's record when shooting 65 or below and the weather, I would add:

1/ He hasn't won in 3 years
2/ He was twice 2nd round leader last year and finished 2nd both times
3/ Twice in the 1990s a player has shot 60 in the 2nd round to lead with 36 holes to play (David Frost, Tucson Open, January 1990 & Davis Love, Hawaiian Open, January 1994) and both times they followed it with two rounds in the 70s to lose the tournament.

I believe there is a psychological effect from shootin 59 or 60. A 59 gives the player a unique achievement and it is difficult to raise their game for the rest of the tournament. A 60 gives the player a sense of lost opportunity of making history; there was always one putt that should have gone in. So this week Paul Gow shot 60 in the 1st round of Canon Challenge, but has followed it with 69 and 74 to now lie in 5th place. Similarly, Darren Clarke shot 60 in the 2nd round of the European Open 18 months ago, but followed it with 66 and 75 to finish 2nd to Lee Westwood.

Just some examples, but if a prop was put out with the field +150 against Calc, I would jump on it

 

[Ian]

Stan
Alphabet the teletext firm go +137.5 that he doesn't win but then you have 7% tax as well
If I see any more I will post them here

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Two of the three matchups are decided at the cut as Begay finished last! Appleby won by twelve shots and Couples by thirteen. Azinger did make the cut by one, but Cink has a handy nine-shot advantage after 36 holes. Just as well the 72-hole plays are strong as all three outright picks missed the cut

Moneyplays has some lines up despite the 2nd/3rd round chaos, but nothing of note, so no plays until tomorrow.

 

[ag]

Spread Betting update.

The first tip of selling Franco on the 10 man index gave a 9 pt profit as he MC.

on Friday i placed 3 further bets, based on tour-tips ratings, personal knowledge, value in the prices on offer.

not all are going to plan, i wasnt able to post them friday but in fairness even although they arent going well i want to be totally upfront and record all bets profits and losses.

they were

A sell of Lehman at 21 on a 50-25-10 index. the belief here was that woods (at the time - one behind) would take the 50 points and i then had els/mick/duval/weir and price playing for me. worst scenario if correct about woods was a 4 pt loss at 25.

hasnt worked out that way due to woods perf:. lehman is only -2 for 27holes since and would have been easily catchable to woods if in form. not over yet as woods 3 behind with 19 to play compared to lehman's 27.

also, clutching at straws though, weir and price 5 behind.

Bet 2 - Similar idea was a sell of Garcia at 9 on a 50-25-10 index. at the time he was 1st, 2 ahead of woods, once again the punt on woods to finsih higher with this time, love, els, duval, leonard, mickelson for me.

since then garcia has went backwards and love (4) and woods (3) are ahead so odds-on to finish with 10pts for 1 pt loss.

Bet 3 - Buy of Couples finishing position at 29. maximum that can be gained here is 50 so anyone 50+ or MC gets score of 50.

at the time couples was on a FP score of 20.5. he is currently T27 with 15 others which with FP rules of ties being split down the middle for their end result he is actually 34.5 on FP so i am now 5.5 ahead but would prefer him to get worse to pay off likely losses on lehman.

couples bet was placed in the belief that he wouldnt like the bad weather that was coming and his accuracy off the tee doesnt suit this course.

full results, profit and loss for the week on Monday, .....if it finishes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Well been a good week to chart bad weather stats but not much for betting opportunity.
Weather suppose to break today but cold.
Eight holes gone in 3rd round and Calc not breaking however will have to go out,come back in and go out again and not convinced lead is big enough and will purchase sell contract on him @WSEX for $30.Equates to Field vs Calc +330 I believe and will have to bite as unofficial play.
============================================
Believe that would be closer to 2.3 to one.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 01-28-2001).]

 

[Ian]

DTB
When you oppose a man you certainly oppose him!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ian Not a round has went by that I have not thought of your initial post on Calc.
I really like Calc and is definately not one to oppose when hot.Will be 0-3 opposing him for week but can't pass up the odds with all the intangibles today.He could slip on hail stone and break arm.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 01-28-2001).]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sheez The flying squirrel has fired an eagle and 5 birds and losing ground to Calc.

 

[Stanley]

I believe the stop-start nature of this event has played into Calc's hands ... people just can't apply sustained pressure in these conditions.

Still impressive golf so far from him, but must admit I've lost interest in this tournament

Just had email from Jack @ Moneyplays - 4th round lines are up at Moneyplays, GoTo and On-line Casino. Will post 4th round plays later if at all.

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 3-0-0 and +7.00 units for the week

Strange week with no 18-hole plays, but a strange week at the Phoenix Open as well! In the remaining 72-hole play, Cink beat Azinger by ten shots. A nice turnaround from some poor matchup plays so far this year on the PGA Tour.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

All three picks missed the cut, so the least said about this week's 'headline' players the better!

PGA Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 13-18 and -19.95 units
Outrights plays: 0-11 and -12.00 units

All Tours ytd:
Matchups/props: 35-45 and -34.02
Outright plays: 4-39 and +39.13 units

Strange week! Draw a blank on all the outrights, but at least the matchups are getting back to where they should be - 12-4 on the week

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Final results
72 holes
Toms/Calc loss
Janzen/Chalmers loss
Toms/Chalmers win
Weir/Garcia loss
Mediate /Verplank win

Matches
Totals for week 3-6 ytd 17-12
Exotics
outright-1 unit ytd -5
3ball - 1 unit ytd +19.75

Notes.First losing week of year won't be the last.Bad week to oppose Calc costing 3 losses plus some unofficial cheese.Hope for better weather next week with 5 betting day event I believe.

 

[Ian]

Outrights
Mediate 2nd 80-1 (1/5 odds)
Jobe, Fryatt no show but still interested in Fryatt here next year and in other desert tournaments
Leonard m/c
McCarron beat McCallister by 6 although he tried his best to throw it away in last 2 rounds
Bad call on Allenby/Stricker the latter played far better than I expected and the former simply didn't play

On another note twas nice to see Daly put 4 rounds together for the first time since I do not know when. Keep an eye on him he still has the class to win

 

[boris]

5 dropped shots in the last 4 holes on Saturday for DL3 gave me a lovely 2-0 with Mike Weir (vs Love & Leonard).

3balls 2-2-2

Profit 7.14 units on turnover of 8.

Yeehar!