I thought 8/1 Ernie in the Mercedes was good value.... but 40/1 Rocco Mediate at Bet365 is obscene. Which player are they looking at?? It can't be the one who finished 2nd in the Mercedes and has such excellent course form including a win and 2 seconds in the last 4 years.
Phoenix Open
- Thread starter bettingmad
- Start date
Having backed him at 80 two yrs ago the 20 certainly doesn't appeal, 25 is about right, 33 is good...
He is using a new putter which may count against him although he was pleased with it in Mercedes...Phoenix is always a putting comp...nothing more than that.
DTB, any news on Kenny - he's usually not bothered early season but looked ok in Hawaii in Rd1..what's the story?
Riley's stats look v good and 40/1 is too big...
Calc is 80 (the same price as two years ago
but is he fit??
Lehman's putting improved during Sony, and 80 is big...
I'm going to sleep on it!
He is using a new putter which may count against him although he was pleased with it in Mercedes...Phoenix is always a putting comp...nothing more than that.
DTB, any news on Kenny - he's usually not bothered early season but looked ok in Hawaii in Rd1..what's the story?
Riley's stats look v good and 40/1 is too big...
Calc is 80 (the same price as two years ago
but is he fit??Lehman's putting improved during Sony, and 80 is big...
I'm going to sleep on it!
Clive I usually go down to his public course and get lowdown on him from brother in law that runs it,but weather has been so bad,ice and snow, I have not ventured down there of late. I did read interview he had after opening with 64 I believe last week and he said he had worked on swing and was firing on all clylinders but then go out with 3 consecutive 71's so I don't know.
As you know my take on him has been terrible.
Things might be looking up though as I made a little cheese opposing him after his 64 with nice odds on Allenby in Olys 72 hole continuations---and a little unofficial cheese on Kelly.
Jan 18 7:20am Golf - Winner 50.00 to win 77.50 77.50
1. Golf - Sony Open January 16 - 19, 2003
Match Ups
Kenny Perry vs Robert Allenby
Robert Allenby (+155) [winner
Jan 15 4:19am Golf - Winner 20.00 to win 160.00 160.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 16 - 19, 2003
Odds to Show
Odds to show in the Sony Open
Jerry Kelly (+800) [winner
As you know my take on him has been terrible.
Things might be looking up though as I made a little cheese opposing him after his 64 with nice odds on Allenby in Olys 72 hole continuations---and a little unofficial cheese on Kelly.
Jan 18 7:20am Golf - Winner 50.00 to win 77.50 77.50
1. Golf - Sony Open January 16 - 19, 2003
Match Ups
Kenny Perry vs Robert Allenby
Robert Allenby (+155) [winner
Jan 15 4:19am Golf - Winner 20.00 to win 160.00 160.00
1. Golf - Sony Open January 16 - 19, 2003
Odds to Show
Odds to show in the Sony Open
Jerry Kelly (+800) [winner
First Glances lead me to think that Rory Sabbatini is fair odds at 100/1 with Bet365 and UK Betting. Inconsistent I know but was 8th last year. Rory played well last week on a tight course that would not have really suited. He also played well in Jan and Feb last year. I have noticed that he has already been backed at long odds on Bet Fair. Unfortunately they beat me to it as I was working. Not fair is it?:shrug:
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Golfers with local links and a link to local coverage:
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/03phxopen/0119azgolfers.html
GL
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/03phxopen/0119azgolfers.html
GL
Clive,
Don't forget Tiger played 2 years ago.... this might partly explain your 80/1 on Rocco. I'm a bit lower than you as I took the sole 25/1 I could find not expecting any 40/1. I said yesterday I saw him as a 14/1 or 16/1 shot in this field on this course in this form. I would much rather be on him at 25 (or 40!!) than a lot of the other players who are at much lower prices.
Don't forget Tiger played 2 years ago.... this might partly explain your 80/1 on Rocco. I'm a bit lower than you as I took the sole 25/1 I could find not expecting any 40/1. I said yesterday I saw him as a 14/1 or 16/1 shot in this field on this course in this form. I would much rather be on him at 25 (or 40!!) than a lot of the other players who are at much lower prices.
Got some of the 33, but he is as low as 16/1...
I've always had a lot of time for him, was one of my Players to Follow last year, but to bet at that price you have to believe that he has finally made the step up that he has long promised.
True, his stats are very encouraging, but is he on a par with the likes of Toms, diMarco, Goosen, Garcia and Singh? And how about his dodgy neck?
Not at the moment...
The Monday plunge is becoming a regular occurence!
I've always had a lot of time for him, was one of my Players to Follow last year, but to bet at that price you have to believe that he has finally made the step up that he has long promised.
True, his stats are very encouraging, but is he on a par with the likes of Toms, diMarco, Goosen, Garcia and Singh? And how about his dodgy neck?
Not at the moment...
The Monday plunge is becoming a regular occurence!
Clive,
Don't start with the bad karma.... mentioning the part of his body between the chest and chin :nono:
Of course when I saw the 40 I ignored my bet at 25 and put more on at that.... just as you would
Don't start with the bad karma.... mentioning the part of his body between the chest and chin :nono:
Of course when I saw the 40 I ignored my bet at 25 and put more on at that.... just as you would
have Stan James made a rick (unfortunately the wrong way)? they have Allem at 33/1 for Phoenix...perhaps he has been burning up the gallops, but Sky have him 100/1 for place only...
Agree on Mediate - he must have a solid chance. Got 33/1 yesterday.
Also gonna take a chance with Kenny Perry at 66/1. He did me a favour a few years back when he won at that price. Solid course form and could go close if he can get his putter going.
Also gonna take a chance with Kenny Perry at 66/1. He did me a favour a few years back when he won at that price. Solid course form and could go close if he can get his putter going.
Arizona resident Tim Clark looks big at the Oly 160/1 - in good form and played well in the US last year.
1 outright so far
Funk to place 12/1 1 unit at Oly(4 places)
Will stay with Funk another week who continues to get no respect after just missing place last week. So current form up to par and course form not too shabby with 3 top 25's last 5 and as stated last week his top 5 per event ratio (4.8) last year in top 6 on tour.
Funk to place 12/1 1 unit at Oly(4 places)
Will stay with Funk another week who continues to get no respect after just missing place last week. So current form up to par and course form not too shabby with 3 top 25's last 5 and as stated last week his top 5 per event ratio (4.8) last year in top 6 on tour.
Outright plays (0.5 units):
David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
First start of the season, but has opened his season very well in six of the last seven seasons on this Tour. Has become one of the most consistent players on Tour with top-5 finishes in 10 of 27 starts last year and while his 9th place finish two years ago (his last visit) was his best performance on this course, he has improved his finishing position on each of his last six visits to Scottsdale.
Rocco Mediate to win 24/1 e.w. @ Olympic [0.25 units to win; 0.25 units to 'show']
Too obvious and I can't believe 40/1 was available at the start of the week, but will take anything from 18/1 upwards. Now playing without back pain, he improved every round to finish 2nd in the Mercedes Championships and finished 1st (1999) or 2nd in three of the last four years here. Very obvious indeed!
Robert Allenby to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
Backed again after his strong finish over the weekend at the Sony Open. It meant he had secured top-5 finishes in three of his last five Tour starts and he did finish 6th in the Australian Open as well. He almost won this event in 2000 - he missed a 5-foot par putt on the last hole to force a playoff with Tom Lehman - and he was struggling badly with his putting when he returned the following year. Looks a big price for someone playing so well.
David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
First start of the season, but has opened his season very well in six of the last seven seasons on this Tour. Has become one of the most consistent players on Tour with top-5 finishes in 10 of 27 starts last year and while his 9th place finish two years ago (his last visit) was his best performance on this course, he has improved his finishing position on each of his last six visits to Scottsdale.
Rocco Mediate to win 24/1 e.w. @ Olympic [0.25 units to win; 0.25 units to 'show']
Too obvious and I can't believe 40/1 was available at the start of the week, but will take anything from 18/1 upwards. Now playing without back pain, he improved every round to finish 2nd in the Mercedes Championships and finished 1st (1999) or 2nd in three of the last four years here. Very obvious indeed!
Robert Allenby to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
Backed again after his strong finish over the weekend at the Sony Open. It meant he had secured top-5 finishes in three of his last five Tour starts and he did finish 6th in the Australian Open as well. He almost won this event in 2000 - he missed a 5-foot par putt on the last hole to force a playoff with Tom Lehman - and he was struggling badly with his putting when he returned the following year. Looks a big price for someone playing so well.
a couple early 72 holes that might move
Janzen -120 overSutherland @ $plays
Oly and several others have this @ -145
Toms +101 over Singh @ Gamebookers
Could not agree more with Stan's on his opinion on Toms and not many matches I will pass at +odds with his consistancy.
Janzen -120 overSutherland @ $plays
Oly and several others have this @ -145
Toms +101 over Singh @ Gamebookers
Could not agree more with Stan's on his opinion on Toms and not many matches I will pass at +odds with his consistancy.
Something I read at Stan's site alerted me to an error in my betting terminology. A unit for me is $40 or $50 depending on the sport and my balance at the sportsbook. When I bet $10-$12 on a player to win AND $10-12 to place, I thought that was betting 0.25* e.w., but apparently that is referred to as betting 0.50* e.w. Starting with this post, I will be posting my plays according to the correct usage.
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There was no shortage of possible plays on my card this week:
OUTRIGHTS for 0.50* e.w.:
Fred Funk(50/1) @ Bet365
One of the angles I was looking at to start the season was to identify players that couldn't get a win last year and might be primed for an early opportunity this year (i.e., Toms, Lonard, Allenby, Perez, Duval, Love, the usual suspects). In that regard, Funk with his four second place and two fourth place finishes in 2002, was probably the poster child for not breaking through with any of his chances from last year, and his winless streak now extends all the way back to 1998. But in Funk's case, 2002 marked a resurgence by the fairway finding machine rather than a year of unfulfilled expectations, which may or may not be the better formula for breaking through quickly or at all this season. It also seemed that Fred's memorable campaign in 2002 was keyed by a superior season on the greens, and that putting looked on track again last week. Lastly, the former Maryland golf coach also has a disposition that seems well suited to the carnival atmosphere in Phoenix. What a spot this would be for Fred's patience to be richly rewarded.
Pat Perez(100/1) @ Bet365
A newspaper headline trumpeting Perez's chances this week would seem destined to be the KOD. On the other hand, I came across the headline while a bit bleary-eyed and while specifically looking for angles to support placing a wager on either Pat Perez or Robert Gamez, so the delusion of a premonition or at least some credibility certainly took root. The guy is streaky hot with his putter and with all phases of his game; he had it going early in the season last year; he has those tasty local connections; and his antics while going good or bad are likely to be noticed with this crowd and could play out in his favor. - - - For an additional twist, my notes from last year tell me to be on the lookout early in the year for someone that gets a kick in the pants by missing a cut (maybe the course just didn't suit them, or they were too anxious?), and then arrives at the next event less emotionally spent than usual and with a jump start in their preparation (for me, David Gossett comes immediately to mind). However, something akin to that kick in the pants may come from Perez having missed the cut in Phoenix last year, and as it was his only appearance there to date, it is quite possible this week plays out as a case of righting last year's stumble rather than a case of returning to a course that doesn't suit his game.
Lee Janzen(66/1) @ Bet365
Probably a waste of money, but I still have to be glad I got in before someone pounded the odds down to 50/1. It starts with Janzen making his season debut at a venue that holds some good vibes. Confidence may have joined with his already determined attitude after he joined with his former college teammate Rocco Mediate to win the Franklin Templeton Shootout in late November. Regardless, despite some serious grinding last year, the old magic has proved elusive and far away, but something as elementary as a spark from his putting might take him a good distance. I'll probably give him a second chance in Monterrey if this week doesn't work out.
Rocco Mediate(24/1) @ Olympic
The other half of Lee Janzen's recently successful partnership. I'm compelled to bite on the obvious choice because of what he has shown in his recent performances.
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Tjaart Van Der Walt(35/1) @ 5dimes
The tipping from this forum regarding his course form and compatibility with this particular pro-am format makes this the best I am likely to find to invest in at an event that I have made no further effort to cap.
There was a shortage of possibilities in Singapore that I could figure out and that seemed too good to pass on.
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MATCHUPS and GROUPS:
DiMarco(-110) over Garcia (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic
DiMarco is dripping with his cocky best. Garcia appears to have putting issues that will only put pressure on other areas of his game that are not free of issues.
Baddeley(+333) over Leonard/Choi/Huston/Byrd (Tournament) for 0.50* @ Bet365
The wings Baddeley got from his encounter with Els are in contrast to the body blow Choi took. Baddeley seems to me to be the most likely to go low, and the comforts to be found in his own bed have the potential to be extremely beneficial on both the downside and the upside.
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One more thing on an already full plate:
Els(+100) to Top 2003 U.S. Money List (without Woods) for 1* @ Bet365
I think it will be a case of how driven is Els and not whether he is playing enough events or what Mickelson or a few others accomplish. I like having seen two weeks that were something very much like what I expected.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
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There was no shortage of possible plays on my card this week:
OUTRIGHTS for 0.50* e.w.:
Fred Funk(50/1) @ Bet365
One of the angles I was looking at to start the season was to identify players that couldn't get a win last year and might be primed for an early opportunity this year (i.e., Toms, Lonard, Allenby, Perez, Duval, Love, the usual suspects). In that regard, Funk with his four second place and two fourth place finishes in 2002, was probably the poster child for not breaking through with any of his chances from last year, and his winless streak now extends all the way back to 1998. But in Funk's case, 2002 marked a resurgence by the fairway finding machine rather than a year of unfulfilled expectations, which may or may not be the better formula for breaking through quickly or at all this season. It also seemed that Fred's memorable campaign in 2002 was keyed by a superior season on the greens, and that putting looked on track again last week. Lastly, the former Maryland golf coach also has a disposition that seems well suited to the carnival atmosphere in Phoenix. What a spot this would be for Fred's patience to be richly rewarded.
Pat Perez(100/1) @ Bet365
A newspaper headline trumpeting Perez's chances this week would seem destined to be the KOD. On the other hand, I came across the headline while a bit bleary-eyed and while specifically looking for angles to support placing a wager on either Pat Perez or Robert Gamez, so the delusion of a premonition or at least some credibility certainly took root. The guy is streaky hot with his putter and with all phases of his game; he had it going early in the season last year; he has those tasty local connections; and his antics while going good or bad are likely to be noticed with this crowd and could play out in his favor. - - - For an additional twist, my notes from last year tell me to be on the lookout early in the year for someone that gets a kick in the pants by missing a cut (maybe the course just didn't suit them, or they were too anxious?), and then arrives at the next event less emotionally spent than usual and with a jump start in their preparation (for me, David Gossett comes immediately to mind). However, something akin to that kick in the pants may come from Perez having missed the cut in Phoenix last year, and as it was his only appearance there to date, it is quite possible this week plays out as a case of righting last year's stumble rather than a case of returning to a course that doesn't suit his game.
Lee Janzen(66/1) @ Bet365
Probably a waste of money, but I still have to be glad I got in before someone pounded the odds down to 50/1. It starts with Janzen making his season debut at a venue that holds some good vibes. Confidence may have joined with his already determined attitude after he joined with his former college teammate Rocco Mediate to win the Franklin Templeton Shootout in late November. Regardless, despite some serious grinding last year, the old magic has proved elusive and far away, but something as elementary as a spark from his putting might take him a good distance. I'll probably give him a second chance in Monterrey if this week doesn't work out.
Rocco Mediate(24/1) @ Olympic
The other half of Lee Janzen's recently successful partnership. I'm compelled to bite on the obvious choice because of what he has shown in his recent performances.
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Tjaart Van Der Walt(35/1) @ 5dimes
The tipping from this forum regarding his course form and compatibility with this particular pro-am format makes this the best I am likely to find to invest in at an event that I have made no further effort to cap.
There was a shortage of possibilities in Singapore that I could figure out and that seemed too good to pass on.
---------- ---------- ----------
MATCHUPS and GROUPS:
DiMarco(-110) over Garcia (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic
DiMarco is dripping with his cocky best. Garcia appears to have putting issues that will only put pressure on other areas of his game that are not free of issues.
Baddeley(+333) over Leonard/Choi/Huston/Byrd (Tournament) for 0.50* @ Bet365
The wings Baddeley got from his encounter with Els are in contrast to the body blow Choi took. Baddeley seems to me to be the most likely to go low, and the comforts to be found in his own bed have the potential to be extremely beneficial on both the downside and the upside.
---------- ---------- ----------
One more thing on an already full plate:
Els(+100) to Top 2003 U.S. Money List (without Woods) for 1* @ Bet365
I think it will be a case of how driven is Els and not whether he is playing enough events or what Mickelson or a few others accomplish. I like having seen two weeks that were something very much like what I expected.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
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Going for the big prices as ever
Calc 80/1 - too big for a 4x event winner
Pampling 125/1 - played well last week and finished well here last year
Beckman 150/1 - quiet finish in 15th last week and top 20 1st visit here
Clark - 160/1 just seemed big to me
Leggatt - 200/1 - won in Arizona last year -
Calc 80/1 - too big for a 4x event winner
Pampling 125/1 - played well last week and finished well here last year
Beckman 150/1 - quiet finish in 15th last week and top 20 1st visit here
Clark - 160/1 just seemed big to me
Leggatt - 200/1 - won in Arizona last year -
Second stab for me. There are many names that popped up when looking at this tourney. It is fair to say that you all have mentioned most of them. I am sticking with Sabbatini for the main action, but for seconds I am going with Ben Crane. I nearly went with Leggatt, and I agree with Ian that he is a big price. I am sticking with Crane as he can putt the lights out. Hoping he is putting for birdies rather than bogeys as his long game is inconsistent. Justin Leonard also seemed a fair price at 40/1. Now thats three I've found.
agree with KJ
1 ew Leonard, 40/1 (VChandlers), some good course form either side of MC's, mixed message, let us hope it is the better of the two options this year!
0.5 ew Janzen, 66/1(SOdds), not so sure he is or ever will come back, it probably won't be this week, but it is as good a week as any for him as he likes it here, so gone for it!
Ian, Clark is next week, the amateur set up for Bob Hope should reduce number of triple and double bogeys that have blighted his early season excursions, although you are right, 160 is a bit on the big side for someone who looks good before and after the bogeys...
1 ew Leonard, 40/1 (VChandlers), some good course form either side of MC's, mixed message, let us hope it is the better of the two options this year!
0.5 ew Janzen, 66/1(SOdds), not so sure he is or ever will come back, it probably won't be this week, but it is as good a week as any for him as he likes it here, so gone for it!
Ian, Clark is next week, the amateur set up for Bob Hope should reduce number of triple and double bogeys that have blighted his early season excursions, although you are right, 160 is a bit on the big side for someone who looks good before and after the bogeys...
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