Playoffs Round Two

[WildBillPicks7]

The Heat have lost Game 1 of a playoff series three times during the "Big 3" era. In the two previous instances -- last year's NBA Finals and the 2011 Eastern Conference finals versus the Bulls -- the Heat swept the next four games.

You are correct!! And next game it goes over the total!! Any time total for Bulls games are less than 195, typically they go over, except last night's game, so the oddsmakers knew that making the numbers, my guess is tomorrow the Heat will make a statement at home since they played like a scrimmage effort vs a team going all out!!

GL HH!! Always appreciate the info!

 

[Happy Hippo]

In the finals they were on the road at OKC, were they at home the other year? Do you know the margin of victory for the second game in 2011? At work, can't look it up.

2011 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Bulls

Game 1 @ Chicago 82-103 (line +1.5)
Game 2 @ Chicago 85-75 (line +2.5)
Game 3 @ Miami 96-85 (line -5)
Game 4 @ Miami 101-93 (line -5)
Game 5 @ Chicago 83-80 (line +3)



2012 Finals vs. Thunder

Game 1 @ OKC 94-105 (line +5)
Game 2 @ OKC 100-96 (line +5)
Game 3 @ Miami 91-85 (line -4)
Game 4 @ Miami 104-98 (line -3.5)
Game 5 @ Miami 121-106 (line -3.5)



Not surprising, but they also covered every spread after they lost the first game.

Cheers!

 

[Happy Hippo]

You are correct!! And next game it goes over the total!! Any time total for Bulls games are less than 195, typically they go over, except last night's game, so the oddsmakers knew that making the numbers, my guess is tomorrow the Heat will make a statement at home since they played like a scrimmage effort vs a team going all out!!

I'm not correct too much, so it would be nice for once! Well, the Bulls are 38-47 O/U vs a total less than 195 this season, but you are the totals man, so I defer to your feeling on it. I do think the Bulls TT under would be a good bet tomorrow, as I don't see the Bulls scoring very many, and a spirited defensive effort from the Heat.

They certainly have been "coasting" in many games this season, and it finally caught up with them. I'm guessing we see quite a different intensity tomorrow. But, this Bulls team is pretty damn tough too. I like them, a lot. Hopefully they can wear them down a little so the Pacers can finish them off. Haha, well, a person must dream a little dream.

Cheers

 

[Happy Hippo]

Just posting pieces of info as I come across them.


The Spurs are 22-3 in series in which they win Game 1. The only times San Antonio has lost a series after winning Game 1 was in 2004 Semifinals vs Lakers, 2006 Semifinals vs Mavs, and the 2012 Conference Finals vs Thunder. In all of these series they had home court advantage, and in two of the three they won both the first two games.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Well, the best NBA gambler in the world is on the Thunder, so I'll bite. Not really my play, but I'm certainly betting it.


OKC -2.5 x2


Good luck...

 

[Jord20]

Well, the best NBA gambler in the world is on the Thunder, so I'll bite. Not really my play, but I'm certainly betting it.

OKC -2.5 x2

Good luck...

I saw that. Don't love being oppo him. But, as he said, it's slim margins he wins on

 

[Happy Hippo]

I saw that. Don't love being oppo him. But, as he said, it's slim margins he wins on

I don't think he said he wins on slim margins. What he said is that playoff betting is not extremely profitable, and is only a small part of what he does, because the edge in playoffs is much smaller than it is during the regular season. At least that is how I interpreted it.

"Edges are small on NBA playoff side bets"

But he also said that while he doesn't bet the playoffs very much, he does have over ten years of data to back up his plays. I certainly trust his opinion, as no one else has access to the kind of information he does. Doesn't mean this is a winner, but I'll take his expertise when he wants to provide it.

 

[Riems]

Well, the best NBA gambler in the world is on the Thunder, so I'll bite. Not really my play, but I'm certainly betting it.


OKC -2.5 x2


Good luck...

HH, who's the best nba gambler?

 

[Happy Hippo]

HH, who's the best nba gambler?

Haralabos Voulgaris

 

[Jord20]

I don't think he said he wins on slim margins. What he said is that playoff betting is not extremely profitable, and is only a small part of what he does, because the edge in playoffs is much smaller than it is during the regular season. At least that is how I interpreted it.

"Edges are small on NBA playoff side bets"

But he also said that while he doesn't bet the playoffs very much, he does have over ten years of data to back up his plays. I certainly trust his opinion, as no one else has access to the kind of information he does. Doesn't mean this is a winner, but I'll take his expertise when he wants to provide it.

I didn't see that one you just referenced. In the past, he has said his edge is ever so slight and not what it used to be. He plays enough volume to churn profits, but it's not like he's 65% or anything

 

[Jord20]

He said 3% edge and liked okc only because thought Westbrook out was perceived too much value

 

[Happy Hippo]

I didn't see that one you just referenced. In the past, he has said his edge is ever so slight and not what it used to be. He plays enough volume to churn profits, but it's not like he's 65% or anything

Who does hit 65%?

Yes, he has said that the books are catching up and his edge is decreasing -

2010-11 season, ROI: 6%
2011-12 season, ROI: 5.14%

This year he said has been one of his most difficult. But that said, he is still more knowledgeable about the NBA than anyone other gambler, wouldn't you say? He is quite guarded and doesn't give out many plays, but if he wants to share any information, I am certainly all ears.

Cheers

 

[Jord20]

I would definitely agree!


Gl

 

[Happy Hippo]

He said 3% edge and liked okc only because thought Westbrook out was perceived too much value

So do you not think a 3% edge is very good? What would be the % at which it would be a play/non-play for you?


He didn't say that about Westbrook, someone replied that to him:

Statmandu "I am playing because may calculated value of Westbrook is less than market perceptions."

His main reasoning for the play seemed to be the reffing crew:

"McCutchen tends to call a lot of off the ball stuff, especially players off screens and holds, helps Kmart and KD."



(which, by the way, I completely disagree with that Westbook comment)

 

[Happy Hippo]

Also, have to admit that the final thing that swayed me was that I love the Grizzlies tonight, and since I can't throw a dart to save myself in these playoffs, that made me feel better about it.

 

[Jord20]

So do you not think a 3% edge is very good? What would be the % at which it would be a play/non-play for you?


He didn't say that about Westbrook, someone replied that to him:

Statmandu "I am playing because may calculated value of Westbrook is less than market perceptions."

His main reasoning for the play seemed to be the reffing crew:

"McCutchen tends to call a lot of off the ball stuff, especially players off screens and holds, helps Kmart and KD."



(which, by the way, I completely disagree with that Westbook comment)

You are right, I completely misread that Westbrook comment. thought it was him.

You seem defensive... I just want to be clear, I didn't come in here to argue with you at all. I have a positive tone.

At any rate.... I rarely ever tail a play. But, IMO, to tail a one off play, even by the best gambler in the world, offers very little statistical edge. If he was going to give me a month's worth of plays, i may hop aboard. But 1 play over the hundreds he plays over a season, doesn't offer much edge. Way too much variance in 1 night.

It's like the 13 vs a 2 or 12 vs a 3 in blackjack (I always get them confused)... over the long run playing it one way increases your EV by a fraction of a percentage, but the 2 times a year I sit down to play blackjack, makes the difference in this play statistically irrelevant.

All that being said, anytime you have a chance to tail the best NBA gambler in the world in the NBA, I like your chances. If I was indifferent to the game, I may tail This game, I happen to have an opinion that Memphis wins. Line way short, and OKC looks very sloppy to me. ANd I agree with you that I disagree about the Westbrook thing.

At any rate, I can't wish you luck on this play because I have Memphis for some coin, but best on the rest.
:toast:

 

[Jord20]

Also, have to admit that the final thing that swayed me was that I love the Grizzlies tonight, and since I can't throw a dart to save myself in these playoffs, that made me feel better about it.

We all know that won't last long.

 

[Happy Hippo]

You are right, I completely misread that Westbrook comment. thought it was him.

You seem defensive... I just want to be clear, I didn't come in here to argue with you at all. I have a positive tone.

At any rate.... I rarely ever tail a play. But, IMO, to tail a one off play, even by the best gambler in the world, offers very little statistical edge. If he was going to give me a month's worth of plays, i may hop aboard. But 1 play over the hundreds he plays over a season, doesn't offer much edge. Way too much variance in 1 night.

It's like the 13 vs a 2 or 12 vs a 3 in blackjack (I always get them confused)... over the long run playing it one way increases your EV by a fraction of a percentage, but the 2 times a year I sit down to play blackjack, makes the difference in this play statistically irrelevant.

All that being said, anytime you have a chance to tail the best NBA gambler in the world in the NBA, I like your chances. If I was indifferent to the game, I may tail This game, I happen to have an opinion that Memphis wins. Line way short, and OKC looks very sloppy to me. ANd I agree with you that I disagree about the Westbrook thing.

At any rate, I can't wish you luck on this play because I have Memphis for some coin, but best on the rest.
:toast:

Was my tone negative? Not trying to be defensive - sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to discuss. I wish there was a lot more discussion on this forum than there is, because I like to learn things or have someone challenge my way of thinking.

Definitely no great statistical edge in tailing someone for one play, that's for sure, and generally I don't tail anyone either. If I lose or make money, I want it to be my play.

I'm kind of apathetic towards these playoffs for some reason. I have not really been watching games or investing much time in them. As a basketball fan, I am routing for the Grizzlies and Pacers more than anything, and betting is sort of an aside for me at this point. I am way more built for the regular season, as far as that goes. Just saying, I don't feel very invested in this process for some reason, but thought it would be fun to tail along and let everyone know who he is on for the night.

Memphis looks good so far. Can't ever discount a team with Durant on it, though.

Again, just trying to rack your mind and see where you are coming from. Never know when you can learn something from someone.

Cheers

 

[Happy Hippo]

Finally, a reprieve for the Nuggets!

George Karl, Coach of the Year


:0008

 

[Happy Hippo]

And I have no idea how Thibodeau only gets 2 first place votes, and Drew and Del Negro get 1?? Again, if your team fails to score 60 points in an NBA regulation game, you should be automatically disqualified from any sort of accolades.