Post WC Plays

[Snafu]

Damn Legia. lost some with that, won a bit with 1st O? x total O1? but anyway

wednesday:

CL quals

BATE - HJK using bet365 "bet builder": 1st half O? x match O1? = -150

Ajax - Sturm Gras 1st half O? X match O2? = -120
Sturm Graz +? +225

Celtic - Rosenborg 1st half O? x match O1? = -150


:shrug:

 

[Bandure]

Ludogorets HK-1 - Vidi
Celtic HK-1 - Rosenborg
BATE Borisov - HJK Helsinki FT1
Ajax - Sturm Graz FT1

 

[BASON]

GL guys!

I played all three early this morning on the following lines

Ludogorets -1.5 Even
Ajax Ov 2.5 -130
Celtic -175

I know some of these lines have moved, especially the Celtic line. Been getting much better numbers early in the morning EST after the initial European bets come in.

Will have some International Cup thoughts up later on.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Hey Bason!

I've been "off the grid" for a few days...just moved...but just wanted to say again, really enjoyed the world cup and might catch up w ya on some soccer plays this weekend or if not then in the near future.

Although I have had most of the soccer I need and I hated seeing France win it all...but it was still a great world cup. Can't wait to follow you on Sunday mornings as I'm waiting for NFL...although I still watch a lot of college but not nearly as much NFL. It'll still be fun!

 

[BASON]

Thanks TD! Will have a new thread up once the bigger seasons start.

Euro
46 freaking games today, here are a couple that caught my eye.

Molde GL and Over. They score at home. They should beat this team 3 or 4 to nil.

Olimpija GL. The Crusaders suck. They lost 7-0 on the road in the last qualifier in CL.

Red Imps/New Saints Over. Two teams that are not very good, especially the Red Imps on the road, so we should see 3 goals here.

Besiktas Over. They should score at least 3 themselves in this one.

Atalanta GL and Over. Another one that should be a romp.


Again, this is very difficult to cap and there are always a lot of upsets, so I would recommend picking one or two you agree with to play. Not worth losing a lot of money on these games.

 

[BASON]

Not a bad day in Euro yesterday.


Ireland

Cork City Ov 3.5 -115 - Simply a play on how bad Bray is. They lost 6-0 to a bad Bohemian team last week while Cork beat Derry 5-0. Should be another blowout.

 

[BASON]

Will go back to Ireland once again.

Dundalk Ov 3 -110 - Looks like another 3-1 game to me so will go with the Over.

 

[BASON]

Just got this at Ov 2.5 -140.

 

[SloganHT]

Vaasa PS - Lahti over 2.5 -138 , over 3.5 + 350

 

[BASON]

Keflavik in Iceland has been awful. Betting against them has been a great money maker so far. Of course the lines keep getting more ridiculous, but they have lost 6 in a row, only have 3 points in 13 matches and have yet to win a game at home. I have to keep playing against them.

Valur also looks good today as they look to stay atop the league. Fylkir is almost as bad as Keflavik as they have lost 5 in a row. Valur is still battling in Euro so they could be a little tired but they are also fighting to stay atop the league.

Maybe parlay the two better teams if you can for some action on this slow day as there simply seems to be a big disparity in quality between the top and bottom in this league.

 

[BASON]

Nice work Slogan!!

 

[BASON]

CL

Hapoel Beer Sheva Ov 2.5 -125/+125 - They lost 5-0 last week, so they have to be very aggressive in this game at home. This is a situation I like in back to back CL games. You get the home team at a great number and the away team does not care if they lose. Dynamo also knows that if they get one goal then it is more or less out of reach. They should have plenty of great countering opportunities in this one which is why I like the Over more than the game.

Warsaw, on paper, looks like a play, but I simply can not play them based on their performance last week. They were completely dominated at home and were lucky to only lose 2-0. Would not be surprised at all if they lose this one, but I am staying away.

 

[Snafu]

Played hefty amount for BATE to qualify...

1st leg week ago @BATU was 0-0. After that match HJK had 2 days off (including traveling back from BATU), match ( @Honka, almost local ) and another two days off before they play today sold out home match.

BATE had all week to get ready for this match and i think they take this seriously.

If BATE scores one (and that's exactly what i think they will do) HJK needs two to qualify.

0-1 or 1-1...

just FYI xstop

 

[BASON]

Thanks Snafu! Bate's road record in CL is a little concerning to me here.

 

[Snafu]

agree Bason, but HJK's home stats aren't anything to write home about either:

here are HJK's euro matches, they haven't qualified against any decent team:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsingin_Jalkapalloklubi#European_campaigns


weather is good, still hot even it's 8pm.... starts 7pm local time

played 1st h O? X match O1? = -110 too

gl

:toast:

 

[BASON]

I do not like a lot in Champions League today so I am not going to force a play. The only one I would consider is the Ov 2.5 in the Rosenborg/Celtic game. Celtic won 3-1 at home so Rosenborg has a good chance to advance with the away goal but I do not think they can keep Celtic off the scoreboard.

Have not played much in the International Cup, but I will go there today for a play.

Lyon/Benfica Ov 3 -110. Both teams play up tempo and this should not change no matter who is playing. Last 3 between them have averaged almost 5 goals per game, so I will take the chance that we get at least 3 here today.

 

[Snafu]

that "1st half O? X FT O1?" is definitely something to look closer when real leagues start. Lower leagues don't give good enough odds but these close to +100's have really good value (imo).


good job BATE :0074

 

[BASON]

Nice work Snafu!

 

[BASON]

Will be completely out of pocket tomorrow, so getting this one in now.

Going to stick to the one game a day for now as it is working. This is very tough for Euro since there are so many games, but one sticks out to me.

Atalanta Ov 1 FH/Ov 2.5 FT - This was a huge upset in the first leg as Sarajevo came back from an early 2-0 deficit to draw the game at 2-2. It was embarrassing for Atalanta and I would think they will be very motivated and much more prepared to win this game, so I like an early goal here and I like goals for the game. Sarajevo will try to pack it in but I don't think they will be able to hold them off, and once Atalanta gets the first one, there should be more.

When I bet HT/FT overs at the same time I usually risk about half of my full game wager on the FH. FH overs were strong in the first leg last week in games with big talent differences (Molde, Besiktas, Atalanta, Sevilla, Leipzig and Genk were all FH overs). The rest of these teams do not have to be as aggressive this leg, but Atalanta does.

 

[Snafu]

as Bason said, difficult task to find anything and even if you do, you can't be sure how seriously teams are taking these early euro-matches. some teams treat these matches as practice matches.

thursday
more like plays against teams from weaker leagues:

Lincoln Red Imps (Gib) - TNS (Wal) -? +180
1st leg 2-1 for TNS, if Imps score at least one goal TNS needs to draw or win

Niedercorn (Lux) - Honved (Hun) -? +190
Honved won 1st leg 1-0

Asteras Tripolis (Gre) - Hibernian (Sco) -? +400
Hibernian won 1st leg 3-2

Drita (Kos) -? +210 - Dudelange (Lux)
Dudelange won 1st leg 2-1, imo Kosovo is a bit underrated soccer country :shrug:

Rangers (Sco) -? -105 - Osijek (Cro)

gl