Ravens vs Chiefs

MadJack

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This write up is not mine but this is how it is.
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Ravens win 30 - 20.

The difference of the Chiefs past wins was because of the defense allowing Mahomes to score early, which made Lamar make mistakes trying to play catch up.
Steve Spagnuolo ( DC for Chiefs) will jam receivers at the line and call a weak side blitz to force Lamar to make a turnover. Now, Steve is pretty good but G Ro had some questionable calls. I watched some old film and on 3rd and 10, he would call a QB run, then try to go for it on 4&2 and fail. That would leave Mahomes with a short field to work with. That’s asking for disaster.

Kelce is a problem due to his understanding of finding the soft spots in a defense. If I am Macdonald I would press him every play at the line to throw off the timing. Yesterday, he caught an easy TD due to busted coverage, but hasn’t been as effective.

Bills defense was severely wounded with 3 All Pros out and using 3rd string and practice squad players to step up (which they did an amazing job). Pacheco is a decent running back, however watching film from when the Broncos played them. Pacheco loves to deliver the blow but if you hit him good (Roquan smith) he starts to slow down. I would definitely use Pierce big body to stop the run.

In the past Wink loved blitzing almost every play, so if the blitz didn’t work then someone was open for the one on one. Macdonald is smart and not a heavy blitz guy, more of a zone and counter blitz will slow some of those “creative plays” that Mahomes make. PQ has to start hot this game, he was not the best against Texans TE Shultz. He was out of place in the zone but made up for it. Hamilton almost had an easy pick he definitely has to hold on to that going against Mahomes. That is the difference maker.

Josh Allen lost because he is truly cocky. Tom Brady compared Allen to his son while giving him advice. Josh Allen pretty much told Brady “I’m good,” while Lamar took the advice and started preparing for games better. Josh Allen had check downs but wanted big plays. Lamar will utilize the short yards heavy this game.
Zay Flowers is great, however he has to run North. He tries to make a juke instead of running to the end zone (he even stated he has to be more aware).

Chiefs will use a lot of misdirection on the Ravens and will utilize the running backs more. I watched the AFC game from 21, Bengals won due to Burrow moving in the pocket buying time and the defense forced a few turnovers, 21 - 3 was the score until the Bengals adjusted. No big plays or TDs will keep the Ravens in it. Mahomes has to be uncomfortable.

Chiefs have a young offense and not a lot of weapons. Ravens are discipline and don’t get fooled by exotic looks. I see Mahomes throwing a pick to Marcus or Stone.

In terms of Mark Andrews, remember this is not Madden. You can’t rush a player out there and think he will be the same. Likely needs to remain the starter, while Andrews is involved in some packages. Marlo if not 100% needs to sit this game out as well.

Sneed is physical so I would involve OBJ early. Stout has to punt higher and not straight to the returner. Another key note, Chiefs have not played the Ravens since 2021. They look different and Tee Martin ( QB coach for Ravens) have allowed Lamar to look stellar in the pocket. He seems more in control and has a lot of confidence in his arm. I see him having a similar day against the Chiefs.

Dalvin Cook will be special this game. I expect him to get more carries and a few screen plays that go for big gains like how they did Mitchell.

I do believe Ravens did have some rust and they were cold. I don’t think this will be a factor this game for them.

Lamar never had good WRs against the Chiefs
- Snead
- Boykin
- Robinson
- Moore

2023
- OBJ
- Flowers
- Bateman ( he didn’t play in 2021 due to injury)
- Aghlor
- Likely
- Cook

There is no way the Ravens lose, unless they FAIL to execute
 

MadJack

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If Lamar Jackson and the Ravens advance past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Ravens will have beaten these quarterbacks in head-to-head matchups in the same season:

- Joe Burrow x2
- CJ Stroud x2
- Jared Goff
- Justin Herbert
- Matthew Stafford
- Trevor Lawrence
- Brock Purdy
- Tua Tagovailoa
 
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MadJack

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Scoring differential vs. playoff opponents, 2023

Ravens: +138, 7-3 record
Chiefs: +13, 3-4 record

The last 10 teams to finish +100 all reached the Super Bowl (7-3 SB record).
 
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rocky mountain

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Great break down Jack, looking backward and forward with the information, impressive! Thank you for all the work here and wish you and your Purple Pain success!
 
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MadJack

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MadJack

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Shawn Smith is ref
Ripped this off another forum, didn't fact check it though:

HOME team with a 43% win percentage in Smith's career

HOME teams an #NFL worst 4-12 with Smith in 2023
 
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rocky mountain

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That ain'r right! Maybe the NFL wants the Chiefs in the SB and... I'm not a fixed game believer either.
On 11-24-23. NFL commissioner calls Taylor Swift an 'unbelievable artist,' after network viewership among girls sees a 53% increase.
 

ChasDee

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For me it's quite simple. The only way Lord Baltimore loses...is if they turn the ball over, significantly more than KC. Lamar has to play smart, play the way he did vs Houston and the way he has all year. And let's hope Harbaugh doesn't come up with some hair-brained idea that will put the Ravens in a bad position. (like the fake punt McDermitt tried on his own 30 yard line...I nearly shit my pants when I saw that!)
Baltimore 27- KC 17
 

MadJack

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yanno

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SO...as far as I can read what you say...as a Baltimore fan...when all is said and done...

1706131404426.jpeg
 

MadJack

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Posted this in the wrong thread.
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Looks more and more like rain.

00rain.PNG



2023 NFL Turnover Differential​

The following are the turnover differential statistics for the 2023 NFL season. Turnover Differential is calculated by subtracting the total number of giveaways (interceptions & fumbles lost) from the total number of takeaways (interceptions & opponent fumble recoveries).

Ravens clearly lead this category. Lamar only threw 7 picks and Mahomes threw 14. Ravens lead the league with 31 takeaways and KC only 17.

TakeawaysGiveaways
TeamGmsDiffIntFumTotIntFumTot
Baltimore Ravens17+1218133171219
New York Giants17+1218133112719
New Orleans Saints17+1118112911718
Pittsburgh Steelers17+111611279716
Cincinnati Bengals17+101792614216
Dallas Cowboys17+101792610616
Houston Texans17+101410248614
San Francisco 49ers17+102262812618
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17+813132610818
Denver Broncos17+411152691322
Chicago Bears17+322628151025
Buffalo Bills17+2181230181028
Indianapolis Colts17+215924101222
Miami Dolphins17+2151227151025
Seattle Seahawks17+21181912517
Detroit Lions17016723121123
Green Bay Packers1707111811718
Los Angeles Chargers1709122181321
Arizona Cardinals17-11161712618
Las Vegas Raiders17-21392218624
Jacksonville Jaguars17-3161127141630
Los Angeles Rams17-31051513518
New York Jets17-6171027151833
Tennessee Titans17-6681411920
Carolina Panthers17-98311101020
Cleveland Browns17-9181028231437
Philadelphia Eagles17-109918161228
Kansas City Chiefs17-118917171128
New England Patriots17-111081821829
Atlanta Falcons17-128816171128
Minnesota Vikings17-12111122191534
Washington Commanders17-1481018211132
 
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Checking in if weather is going to be a factor in Baltimore tomorrow for the O/U
 

MadJack

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Checking in if weather is going to be a factor in Baltimore tomorrow for the O/U
Right this second it's a zero chance of rain at kickoff. 20%-40% from 4-6pm.

Of course that can change.
 
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