Wunderdogsports
Game: Ohio State at Michigan (Saturday 11/17 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Michigan +4
Throw out the records when these teams square off, because they ultimately don't decide the issue. Prior to the season starting, this game was supposed to be a game featuring two potentially undefeated teams. But, that ended in game one for Michigan and last week at home for Ohio State. That had to really hurt Ohio State who thought the game this week would be to punch a ticket to the National Championship game. This is historically a big game no matter what, but you really have question the mindset of the Buckeyes coming in. They are playing for a Rose Bowl bid now which is quite a letdown from playing for a National Championship. This matchup fits a situation we look for throughout the season. Once in a while you see these top teams lose their first game and they almost always have an emotional letdown in their next game. This year especially there have been a bunch. Boston College, Arizona State, S. Florida, USC, Penn State, Oklahoma, LSU and Michigan. What do they all have in common? They were all at one time or another undefeated contenders that went down and either lost outright in their next game or did not get the cover the spread. Ohio State has brought some top teams to The Big House in the past, and only once did they leave with enough points to cover this spread since 1985! We will ride the Wolverines to get the money.
Game: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Saturday 11/17 2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Vanderbilt +12
This is a heated rivalry, but more for one side than the other. Vanderbilt is more passionate about this game than is Tennessee. The Vols have long been the better program. And again this year they are the superior team. But, game boils down to a Bowl game for Vandy. They are at 5-5 and could catch Tennessee on the look-ahead to Kentucky. The Commodores have covered three of four as a double digit dog in this one since 1997. Vandy has been competitive enough all season to cover this spread, except against Auburn and Florida. Tennessee isn't in that class. This will be the most points Tennessee has givin all season. Vanderbilt has a stellar defense, ranked #24 overall. Remember that Tennessee scored just 20 against a Florida defense rated #20 and just 17 vs. an Alabama defense rated #17. This Vandy defense is 24th and right in line with those two. Tennessee has met six teams with a defense rated #53 or higher, having averaged 27.7 ppg in these games compared to the 34.3 ppg they average on the season. It is asking a lot to be giving two scores in a game like this. Vanderbilt has an 8-1 ATS record in their last nine as a road dog of 10.5+ while Tennessee has been 4-9 in their last 13 as a home chalk of 10.5 or more. This is a Vandy team that won at SC, so they are certainly capable of being competitive in this spot. We expect them to stay inside this lofty number.
Game: San Jose State at Louisiana Tech (Saturday 11/17 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Jose State +5.5
San Jose State has covered five of the last six in this series including a 44-10 blowout last season. Their running game has fallen off since last season but they have a superior passing attack behind Adam Tafralis, who just passed Jeff Garcia on the school's all-time list for passing yards. And, they had success on the ground last week in a 51-17 win vs. New Mexico State. This is a disciplined team that has lost only one fumble all season long. The Spartans are 11-3 straight-up vs. losing teams the past three seasons and they are 9-3 in their last twelve conference games. These teams are pretty evenly matched and either can win this ballgame. We'll take the points on the dog.
Game: U N L V at T C U (Saturday 11/17 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U N L V +17
What a disappointment this season has been for TCU. A team that was supposed to have a chance at an undefeated season and an early shot to pull off the shocker at Texas, has resulted in a mediocre 5-5 season. Last year they ran the table in their last eight, finishing 8-0 and outscoring the opponent 281-86. What a difference a year makes. This year's team has given up 90 points in their last four games! So where does the motivation come from, playing at home vs. a team that has lost six straight? Discounting the Hawaii game, who is in a class by themselves on this level, UNLV has only dropped one game by as many as this line, as bad as they have been. Their offense has improved of late. They have out-gained their last three opponents by 1307-1179. The fact is they have out-gained six of ten opponents, shutout Utah, and led Wisconsin late in the 4th. They can score enough points to stay in this game, especially against an unmotivated opponent. We like the generous points in this one and will back the Rebs.
Game: Boston College at Clemson (Saturday 11/17 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston College +8.5
Things change quickly in sports. Boston College was chasing a National Championship just a couple short weeks ago and now have lost two straight. Clemson was 4-0, lost to Georgia Tech, and then got spanked by Virginia Tech. They appeared to be done. Now they have run off four wins in a row and bingo, they are both 8-2! This game was played a few weeks ago, BC would of been favored. So where is the value here? It is on BC. We have seen teams (including Clemson) lose that first game, then follow it with a poor game, and then get back to being the team they were. It happens to most teams (see Michigan-Ohio State writeup). That makes this TD+ offer big value, because we expect BC, over their hangover, to come out full guns blazing. Clemson, Michigan, Penn State, USC and LSU lost that first game to crush their national title hopes and followed up with the emotional hangover. In their next game after that, they won by combined scores of 204-45! This is a good spot for BC and we will ride the overlay, with a team that could win outright