Sport / Type: NCAAF / Side
Game: Louisville vs. South Florida
Date / Time: Saturday November 17th, 2007 / 8:00PM EST.
TV: Regional
Line: South Florida -8.5 Total: 62
Rating: 6 * (4.5% of bankroll)
Selection: South Florida Bulls
Analysis:
Cigar City and Raymond James Stadium will be the site for tonight?s Big East Conference battle between the hometown Bulls of the University of South Florida and the Louisville Cardinals.
The Cardinals currently sit at 5-5 with an under .500 conference record. This season could only be described as a disappointment for this team and their backers who had grown accustomed to winning at least nine games a season and finishing ranked in the Top 20 in the nation.
The Cards most recent loss which was last Saturday to the Mountaineers of West Virginia was deceiving in that the final score makes one think the Cards matched up well against West Virginia when in reality the Mountaineers made too many mistakes which allowed the Cards to hang around. Three second half fumbles by the host and mental errors kept this Card team in the game much longer than they should have been allowed. This week they will see a much different and focused opponent that will be looking for a little revenge after last seasons 31 to 8 pasting in Louisville.
Louisville is suffering from numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball which has caused them to have match up problems as well as fatigue issues this late in the season. Depth on that side of the ball and the fact that they are learning a new scheme has plagued this squad all season and now they must face a Bulls team that can and will run the ball right at them we believe with success.
As we always do we look for match up problems and situational advantages to key on and this game gives us both in spades. The Cardinal offense has become more or less one dimensional because of their inability to run the football. They have been held to under 100 yards rushing in five of their last seven times to post. The yards per carry is a very telling number for this team as they have only had one game in which they managed to rush for more than 3 yards per carry their last seven contests.
Those are not good numbers when you are about to face a team that ranks in the Top 10 in the country in pass efficiency defense. The Bulls also do a very nice job on the defensive side of the ball controlling the line of scrimmage as they rank number one in the nation in tackles for a loss. With the Cards one dimensional on offense and the Bulls controlling the line of scrimmage which will in turn allow them to control the tempo of the game could and will make for a long night for this Louisville Cardinal team.
South Florida?s offense has been solid the last part of the season averaging better than 5.5 yards per play and they bounced back nicely last week against Syracuse racking up 582 yards of total offense and almost 350 of that was overland. They are a more balanced attack than the Cards and have a huge defensive edge in this contest.
Our TPI (Team Performance Indicator) signals a ?buy? on the South Florida Bulls with a 13.7 point advantage in this contest. Our Player Performance Indicator also signals a ?buy? on the Bulls over the Cardinals with an impressive 15.6 point edge. All four sets of our Power Indicators reflect a double-digit win for South Florida in this game and this Bureau believes this will be a ?running of the bulls? and an easy win and cover on Saturday night in Tampa.
Technical Support for our selection: The Host in this series is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. LOUISVILLE is 11-31 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points since 1992, 2-10 ATS in road games when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992, 4-7 ATS on the road in the Big East Conference, 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons, 9-21 ATS after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers since 1992. S FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992, 7-2 ATS their last nine at home, 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992, 13-7 ATS their last 20 as Home Chalk.
Situational support for our selection: Play On NCAA teams coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points, 83-44 ATS last ten seasons. Play Against NCAA road teams who average >=34 PPG against a team that allows 16-21 PPG after 7+ games, in conference games, 48-22 ATS the last ten seasons.
SELECTION: 6* SOUTH FLORIDA 41 LOUISVILLE 19
