SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS 3/29
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
WINNING POINTS
UCLA over Xavier by 5
The Musketeers will not go away. Howland will probably have to employ more muscle
and less scoring to overcome this opponent. UCLA, 69-64.
Louisville over North Carolina by 1
North Carolina is Clemson, except with Hansbrough and a slightly smarter head coach
and smarter supporting cast. Louisville is more versatile. LOUISVILLE, 76-75.
***BEST BET***
*Detroit over Cleveland by 17
Rarely do the Pistons throw in a clunker but they did 10 days ago at Cleveland when
they lost 89-73. The Pistons were coming off a 136-120 win the night before against the
racehorse Nuggets. Expect a focused and revenge-minded effort from Detroit, one of the
most reliable spread teams. The Pistons last played on Thursday and that was taking on
Miami, the worst team in the NBA. LeBron James is going to get his points. But the
Pistons can stop the rest of the Cavaliers? attack with their assorted zone defenses. The
Cavaliers have lost seven of their last eight away matchups. DETROIT 106-89.
***BEST BET***
Portland over Charlotte by 16
Depth is a problem for Charlotte and this marks its fourth game in five days. Brandon
Roy is a legitimate star and LaMarcus Aldridge has also been showing star potential. The
Trail Blazers are underrated defensively, ranking in the top 10. Charlotte is second-to-last
in free throw percentage. PORTLAND 108-92.
UCLA over Xavier by 5
The Musketeers will not go away. Howland will probably have to employ more muscle
and less scoring to overcome this opponent. UCLA, 69-64.
Louisville over North Carolina by 1
North Carolina is Clemson, except with Hansbrough and a slightly smarter head coach
and smarter supporting cast. Louisville is more versatile. LOUISVILLE, 76-75.
***BEST BET***
*Detroit over Cleveland by 17
Rarely do the Pistons throw in a clunker but they did 10 days ago at Cleveland when
they lost 89-73. The Pistons were coming off a 136-120 win the night before against the
racehorse Nuggets. Expect a focused and revenge-minded effort from Detroit, one of the
most reliable spread teams. The Pistons last played on Thursday and that was taking on
Miami, the worst team in the NBA. LeBron James is going to get his points. But the
Pistons can stop the rest of the Cavaliers? attack with their assorted zone defenses. The
Cavaliers have lost seven of their last eight away matchups. DETROIT 106-89.
***BEST BET***
Portland over Charlotte by 16
Depth is a problem for Charlotte and this marks its fourth game in five days. Brandon
Roy is a legitimate star and LaMarcus Aldridge has also been showing star potential. The
Trail Blazers are underrated defensively, ranking in the top 10. Charlotte is second-to-last
in free throw percentage. PORTLAND 108-92.
THE SPORTS MEMO
ERIN RYNNING
Memphis at LA Clippers (3/29)
Recommendation: Grizzlies
The Grizzlies hit La-La land with a game against the Clippers Saturday night. Note the Interesting schedule quirk in this contest, which gives up a distinct advantage in the betting marketplace. This is the second of a back-to-back for the Grizzlies.
However, they won?t have to travel with a game Friday night in the Staples Center against the Lakers. On the other side of the equation, this will serve as the Clippers fourth game in five nights. In addition, their first three games of the set will all be played on the road. That makes this contest almost like another road game for the Clippers, especially concerning
the travel involved. In addition, the Grizzlies are playing much better basketball of late. Mike Miller recently returned to give this team a jolt on the offensive end. They?re playing with at least two ?game? young point guards in Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry as well. Defensively, this team has picked it up, while playing and liking a zone defense with Hakim Warrick as the anchor. Of course, Warrick has thrived in a zone going back to his days at Syracuse. Meanwhile, the Clippers are just slogging through a disappointing season. Injuries have taken their toll in a big way, while depth in a ?four in five? is of grave concern. The situation is a sweet one and with the Grizzlies still trying hard, we?ll ride them in this contest to get the win
ERIN RYNNING
Memphis at LA Clippers (3/29)
Recommendation: Grizzlies
The Grizzlies hit La-La land with a game against the Clippers Saturday night. Note the Interesting schedule quirk in this contest, which gives up a distinct advantage in the betting marketplace. This is the second of a back-to-back for the Grizzlies.
However, they won?t have to travel with a game Friday night in the Staples Center against the Lakers. On the other side of the equation, this will serve as the Clippers fourth game in five nights. In addition, their first three games of the set will all be played on the road. That makes this contest almost like another road game for the Clippers, especially concerning
the travel involved. In addition, the Grizzlies are playing much better basketball of late. Mike Miller recently returned to give this team a jolt on the offensive end. They?re playing with at least two ?game? young point guards in Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry as well. Defensively, this team has picked it up, while playing and liking a zone defense with Hakim Warrick as the anchor. Of course, Warrick has thrived in a zone going back to his days at Syracuse. Meanwhile, the Clippers are just slogging through a disappointing season. Injuries have taken their toll in a big way, while depth in a ?four in five? is of grave concern. The situation is a sweet one and with the Grizzlies still trying hard, we?ll ride them in this contest to get the win
TIM TRUSHEL
Phoenix at New Jersey (3/29)
Recommendation: Nets
New Jersey is not a good basketball team by any stretch of the definition.
Yet because of a very difficult set of circumstances and a brutal schedule, they do hold plenty of value in the pointspread. Consider their efforts this month having played Philadelphia, New Orleans, Denver,
Utah, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas plus San Antonio twice. No surprise
that any mediocre team would go 2-7 in those games. Five of the nine games against the elite have been on the road where New Jersey is a pathetic 11-23 on the season. Not coincidentally the Nets were 0-5 in those five road games. However at home they have been much more competitive splitting their games en route to an 18-18 overall mark. Along the way this month they beat the likes of Utah and Cleveland.
This weekend they?ll face a Phoenix Suns team that will likely overlook the game. Phoenix will be tested in Philadelphia the night previous and will have little emphasis put on this game. On the second of back-to-back games this year Phoenix is just 5-9 against the spread and has lost three times straight up to the likes of Minnesota and Atlanta.
After facing an up-tempo opponent like Philadelphia we would expect some attrition the following night in New Jersey. So while the Nets do not have an answer for Shaq, we project his effectiveness and contributions to be diminished. The loss of Jason Kidd has been a non factor and with plenty of offensive weapons, the Nets will keep up offensively and steal one at home from Phoenix. Take the points.
Phoenix at New Jersey (3/29)
Recommendation: Nets
New Jersey is not a good basketball team by any stretch of the definition.
Yet because of a very difficult set of circumstances and a brutal schedule, they do hold plenty of value in the pointspread. Consider their efforts this month having played Philadelphia, New Orleans, Denver,
Utah, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas plus San Antonio twice. No surprise
that any mediocre team would go 2-7 in those games. Five of the nine games against the elite have been on the road where New Jersey is a pathetic 11-23 on the season. Not coincidentally the Nets were 0-5 in those five road games. However at home they have been much more competitive splitting their games en route to an 18-18 overall mark. Along the way this month they beat the likes of Utah and Cleveland.
This weekend they?ll face a Phoenix Suns team that will likely overlook the game. Phoenix will be tested in Philadelphia the night previous and will have little emphasis put on this game. On the second of back-to-back games this year Phoenix is just 5-9 against the spread and has lost three times straight up to the likes of Minnesota and Atlanta.
After facing an up-tempo opponent like Philadelphia we would expect some attrition the following night in New Jersey. So while the Nets do not have an answer for Shaq, we project his effectiveness and contributions to be diminished. The loss of Jason Kidd has been a non factor and with plenty of offensive weapons, the Nets will keep up offensively and steal one at home from Phoenix. Take the points.
TEDDY COVERS
Charlotte at Portland (3/29)
Recommendation: Trail Blazers
Portland has been a remarkably easy team to handicap over the course of the last few months. Since the Blazers tremendous streak of 17 wins in 18 games back in December and January, they?ve done nothing against quality opposition, going just 1-14 SU, 4-12 ATS against teams with winning records. Who have the Blazers
been beating? Bad teams like the Bobcats; 14-4 against teams with losing records, including a 6-2 ATS mark against those losing teams in their last eight tries. The Blazers were able to win and cover as substantial road favorites against the Clippers this past weekend, despite a 37 percent shooting performance and 4-of-19 from three point range. The key to Portland?s success against bad teams has been two-fold. First, they have been extremely adept at pounding the ball down into the paint, feeding Joel Przybilla and LaMarcus Aldridge on nearly every possession. Secondly, the Blazers
have avoided turnovers like the plague, with Brandon Roy and Steve Blake consistently making good decisions with the basketball.
The Bobcats have been a pointspread disaster area on the road all year long, just 11-21-1 ATS away from home following their latest road trip, losing all five games by seven points or more in straight up fashion. It?s not hard to make a case against this struggling Charlotte team that has managed only two straight up road wins during their current 5-11 ATS run on the highway.
Charlotte at Portland (3/29)
Recommendation: Trail Blazers
Portland has been a remarkably easy team to handicap over the course of the last few months. Since the Blazers tremendous streak of 17 wins in 18 games back in December and January, they?ve done nothing against quality opposition, going just 1-14 SU, 4-12 ATS against teams with winning records. Who have the Blazers
been beating? Bad teams like the Bobcats; 14-4 against teams with losing records, including a 6-2 ATS mark against those losing teams in their last eight tries. The Blazers were able to win and cover as substantial road favorites against the Clippers this past weekend, despite a 37 percent shooting performance and 4-of-19 from three point range. The key to Portland?s success against bad teams has been two-fold. First, they have been extremely adept at pounding the ball down into the paint, feeding Joel Przybilla and LaMarcus Aldridge on nearly every possession. Secondly, the Blazers
have avoided turnovers like the plague, with Brandon Roy and Steve Blake consistently making good decisions with the basketball.
The Bobcats have been a pointspread disaster area on the road all year long, just 11-21-1 ATS away from home following their latest road trip, losing all five games by seven points or more in straight up fashion. It?s not hard to make a case against this struggling Charlotte team that has managed only two straight up road wins during their current 5-11 ATS run on the highway.
Red Dog Sports
UNC/Louisville Over 72.5 (1st half) (Olympic)
This game is being played in Charlotte, NC and UNC will have plenty of fans there. UNC is off a slow paced game vs. Washington State yet still put up 35 in the first half. Louisville has played well and does a good job changing defenses. Will UNC be able to adjust?
Tyler Hansbrough only scored 2 points in the first half vs. WSU amd even missed 2 foul shots. UNC is one of the fastest paced teams in the country and Lawson is now closer to 100%. He should be able to break the press and lead to some easy layups as well as get 3's from Ellington and Green.
The Cardinals have played some high scoring first halves this year including the postseason game vs. Boise State that was 44-31 (75 points). Here are some others:
Providence 40-39 (79)
Seton Hall 45-43 (88)
BYU 41-37 (78)
Pitt 42-36 (78)
Marshall 37-37 (74)
Louisville gets offense from Padgett, Williams, Clark, Smith, Caracter, Sosa and Palacios. The Cards are not very good from the free throw line and that could be a factor.
The over/under for the game is 155 so they are expecting 72.5 in the first half and 82.5 in the second.
72.5 is available at Olympic but others have it at 73. I would not try above
73.
UNC is a great rebounding team that could help lead to fast breaks. The press of Louisville should lead to some steals and layups.
I think we see a score in the 41-37 range at half and above the total.
UNC/Louisville Over 72.5 (1st half)
UNC/Louisville Over 72.5 (1st half) (Olympic)
This game is being played in Charlotte, NC and UNC will have plenty of fans there. UNC is off a slow paced game vs. Washington State yet still put up 35 in the first half. Louisville has played well and does a good job changing defenses. Will UNC be able to adjust?
Tyler Hansbrough only scored 2 points in the first half vs. WSU amd even missed 2 foul shots. UNC is one of the fastest paced teams in the country and Lawson is now closer to 100%. He should be able to break the press and lead to some easy layups as well as get 3's from Ellington and Green.
The Cardinals have played some high scoring first halves this year including the postseason game vs. Boise State that was 44-31 (75 points). Here are some others:
Providence 40-39 (79)
Seton Hall 45-43 (88)
BYU 41-37 (78)
Pitt 42-36 (78)
Marshall 37-37 (74)
Louisville gets offense from Padgett, Williams, Clark, Smith, Caracter, Sosa and Palacios. The Cards are not very good from the free throw line and that could be a factor.
The over/under for the game is 155 so they are expecting 72.5 in the first half and 82.5 in the second.
72.5 is available at Olympic but others have it at 73. I would not try above
73.
UNC is a great rebounding team that could help lead to fast breaks. The press of Louisville should lead to some steals and layups.
I think we see a score in the 41-37 range at half and above the total.
UNC/Louisville Over 72.5 (1st half)
ats basketball lock club
4units ucla
3units suns
ats hockey lock club
4units over wash-flor
3units bruins
4units ucla
3units suns
ats hockey lock club
4units over wash-flor
3units bruins
Matalion Stallion
Matalion Stallion
16 - 5 since I started tracking him.
Tonight he LOVES North Carolina.
He says that NC will CRUSH Louisville.
Just for the record...He said that Louisville would crush Tennesse and he was right about that!
"N.C. should win this game by 15."
That's a direct quote.
Good luck.
Basically, if NC doesn't cover, I will be bummed because I am all in !!
Matalion Stallion
16 - 5 since I started tracking him.
Tonight he LOVES North Carolina.
He says that NC will CRUSH Louisville.
Just for the record...He said that Louisville would crush Tennesse and he was right about that!
"N.C. should win this game by 15."
That's a direct quote.
Good luck.
Basically, if NC doesn't cover, I will be bummed because I am all in !!
I know...but I am having a great week and I am going to step out tonight !!
Either way, tomorrow I will be REALLY hungover.
Either way, tomorrow I will be REALLY hungover.
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER ucla/xavier
Game: Xavier vs. UCLA Game Time: 3/29/2008 6:40:00 PM Prediction: under . *Blue Chip
NHL
UNDER panthers/capitals
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers Game Time: 3/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under *Southeast Total of the Month
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER ucla/xavier
Game: Xavier vs. UCLA Game Time: 3/29/2008 6:40:00 PM Prediction: under . *Blue Chip
NHL
UNDER panthers/capitals
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers Game Time: 3/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under *Southeast Total of the Month
BEN BURNS write-ups
UNDER ucla/xavier
Game: Xavier vs. UCLA Game Time: 3/29/2008 6:40:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and Xavier to finish UNDER the number. After allowing a mere 20 points in the first half, the UCLA defense collapsed in the second half against Western Kentucky. I expect a MUCH better defensive effort for the entire game by the Bruins this evening. Note that the Bruins allowed an average of just 39 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games, both which stayed comfortably below the number. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER is still 10-4 in the Bruins' NCAA Tournament games the past three seasons. This season, they're allowing an average of just 58.5 points including just 54.8 their past four games. The boxscore shows that Xavier, which allows 63.5 point per game, comes off a high-scoring affair against West Virginia. However, that was only due to the game reaching overtime as the final combined score at the end of regulation was low enough to have stayed below the total. Note that West Virginia was 1-for-11 from long range. shot only 39 percent and were 8-for-21 from 3-point range. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-5 the last 14 times that the Museketeers were listed as underdogs. Look for this evening's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
*Blue Chip
UNDER UCLA/Xavier
NHL
UNDER panthers/capitals
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers Game Time: 3/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Capitals and Panthers to finish UNDER the number. Huge game for the Capitals while the Panthers have more or less been reduced to playing spoiler. I'm expecting that to translate into a defensive affair. The Panthers continue to get solid goaltending from Vokoun, as he has allowed two goals or less in each of his last two games. Unfortunately, for Vokoun, he lost both those games as his team continues to have trouble scoring. Two games ago, the Panthers lost 3-1 at Tampa Bay. They followed that up by losing 3-2 here vs. Atlanta. A closer look at that game shows the score was actually 2-1 with one minute to go in the third. The Thrashers added an empty net goal and the Panthers added one with less than two seconds remaining. All the same, the final score fell below the number bringing the UNDER to 11-4 the last 15 times that the Panthers took the ice. Despite having the dangerous Alexander Ovechkin on their team, the Capitals have also been kind to under bettors of late. In fact, the UNDER is 13-5-1 their last 19 games. Part of their recent trouble has been an inability to score on the power play. Indeed, Washington is just 1-for-15 the last 16 times it had the man advantage. It's also worth noting that the Panthers have stopped their opponents' last 16 power-play chances. The most recent series meeting here snuck above the number with six goals. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 12-3-2 the last 17 series meetings here. A closer look at that February game shows that the score was tied 1-1 heading into the third period and that the winning goal came on a "lucky shot" (harmless wrist shot from the blue line that both the player and goalie admitted shouldn't have gone in) and that the sixth goal was an empty-netter. In other words, that game could have easily stayed below the number. I expect this evening's game to do so, as the UNDER improves to 15-8-2 on the season when the Capitals were coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals.
*Southeast Total of the Month
UNDER Panthers/Capitals
Michael Cannon
6-0 last 3 days
Since 3/20/08: 14-8 overall (+75 dimes, 6-3 best bets)
25 Dime
LOUISVILLE
Take the points with Louisville tonight when they take on North Carolina in the East Regional Final.
There?s no question the Tarheels are playing great basketball right now, probably the best in the entire tournament.
But if North Carolina is playing the best, Louisville is right behind them.
Rick Pitino has his team buying into his system right now and the results are apparent. The Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 overall and 3-1 ATS as a dog this year.
The Tarheels are going to see a Louisville team that is similar to Clemson in its pressuring defense, but the Cardinals are better at it than the Tigers. If you recall, North Carolina and Clemson battled closely in each of their three meetings this year and I expect the deeper, tougher Cardinals to give them a fight tonight as well.
Pitino won?t have to worry about his team tiring out against the ultra-high tempo of the Tarheels, as the Cardinals can go 10 or 11 deep, which will help them stay close throughout.
The Cardinals also have a versatile lineup, with seven players hitting 3-pointers in the opener against Boise State and eight against Oklahoma.
Looking back at those Clemson games, North Carolina turned the ball over a whopping 59 times in the three meetings, and Louisville figures to force its share tonight.
There?s no doubt North Carolina is a great team, but with the Cardinals battle-tested having played a rough Big East schedule, I don?t see them pulling away tonight.
This game could go down to the last possession, so the points are definitely the play.
Take Louisville plus the number as they stay within the spread tonight.
10 Dime
XAVIER
Take the points with Xavier tonight when they take on Ucla in the West Regional Final.
This is another case of the linemaker overvaluing the Bruins, as they?ve struggled to put teams away in the tournament.
If Ucla let Western Kentucky back in the game after leading by 21 points at halftime, I doubt they?ll pull away from an experienced, balanced Musketeers squad.
Xavier has five different players averaging double-digits in scoring this year. Most of them can hit from beyond the arc, and Josh Duncan is physical enough to hang with Kevin Love inside.
What?s more, Xavier is a good foul-shooting team that won?t waste points when they toe it up from the line.
Xavier may not hail from a dominant conference, but they did record 11 wins this year against teams in the Top 50 in RPI rankings.
I respect the job Ben Howland does with the Bruins, especially on the defensive end, but the fact remains this team doesn?t have a go-to scorer besides Love, and if push comes to shove Ucla will struggle from the perimeter. Josh Shipp has been in an extended shooting slump which will hinder the Bruins in crucial late-game possessions.
Xavier is quick enough and does a good enough job on the boards to stay close tonight.
Take the points with Xavier as they stay within the number.
6-0 last 3 days
Since 3/20/08: 14-8 overall (+75 dimes, 6-3 best bets)
25 Dime
LOUISVILLE
Take the points with Louisville tonight when they take on North Carolina in the East Regional Final.
There?s no question the Tarheels are playing great basketball right now, probably the best in the entire tournament.
But if North Carolina is playing the best, Louisville is right behind them.
Rick Pitino has his team buying into his system right now and the results are apparent. The Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 overall and 3-1 ATS as a dog this year.
The Tarheels are going to see a Louisville team that is similar to Clemson in its pressuring defense, but the Cardinals are better at it than the Tigers. If you recall, North Carolina and Clemson battled closely in each of their three meetings this year and I expect the deeper, tougher Cardinals to give them a fight tonight as well.
Pitino won?t have to worry about his team tiring out against the ultra-high tempo of the Tarheels, as the Cardinals can go 10 or 11 deep, which will help them stay close throughout.
The Cardinals also have a versatile lineup, with seven players hitting 3-pointers in the opener against Boise State and eight against Oklahoma.
Looking back at those Clemson games, North Carolina turned the ball over a whopping 59 times in the three meetings, and Louisville figures to force its share tonight.
There?s no doubt North Carolina is a great team, but with the Cardinals battle-tested having played a rough Big East schedule, I don?t see them pulling away tonight.
This game could go down to the last possession, so the points are definitely the play.
Take Louisville plus the number as they stay within the spread tonight.
10 Dime
XAVIER
Take the points with Xavier tonight when they take on Ucla in the West Regional Final.
This is another case of the linemaker overvaluing the Bruins, as they?ve struggled to put teams away in the tournament.
If Ucla let Western Kentucky back in the game after leading by 21 points at halftime, I doubt they?ll pull away from an experienced, balanced Musketeers squad.
Xavier has five different players averaging double-digits in scoring this year. Most of them can hit from beyond the arc, and Josh Duncan is physical enough to hang with Kevin Love inside.
What?s more, Xavier is a good foul-shooting team that won?t waste points when they toe it up from the line.
Xavier may not hail from a dominant conference, but they did record 11 wins this year against teams in the Top 50 in RPI rankings.
I respect the job Ben Howland does with the Bruins, especially on the defensive end, but the fact remains this team doesn?t have a go-to scorer besides Love, and if push comes to shove Ucla will struggle from the perimeter. Josh Shipp has been in an extended shooting slump which will hinder the Bruins in crucial late-game possessions.
Xavier is quick enough and does a good enough job on the boards to stay close tonight.
Take the points with Xavier as they stay within the number.
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ Louisville
2. 50,000♦ Warriors
3. 50,000♦ Trail Blazers
1. Louisville- Neither one of these teams has faced much of a challenge in their path to this clash of the Titans, but that's about to change real quick, as both teams featured here are not only excellent defensively, but playing their best basketball of the season. The difference between these two squads is minimal, which is exactly I'm taking Louisville plus the points in this match up. But let me explain further...
Wondering whether the Cardinals can slow down a Tarheels offense averaging 96 ppg over their first three tourney games? The answer is yes, and there's two reasons why: A. Louisville is fundamentally one of the best defenses North Carolina will see all year, allowing 60 ppg on 38% shooting this season. Just ask Tennessee, who scored a measly 60 points on just 33% shooting Thursday. And B. The Cardinals have the size inside to stymy the Tarheels # 1 weapon, C Tyler Hansbrough, who'll be matched up against one of the few players with as much basketball IQ as he has in senior C David Padgett. If Washington State's bigmen were able to slow Hansbrough, then so can the Cardinals excellent frontline.
On the offensive end, Louisville may not have the firepower the Tarheels have, but they've got more than enough balance to make up for it. The emergence of F Earl Clark is huge, who's led the Cardinals in scoring in all 3 tourney games despite coming off the bench! Other than him, Padgett, Williams, Caracter, and Palacios make up one of the deepest and most talented frontline in the college game. And as we saw against the Vols, the Cardinals guards are rock-solid, with Smith and McGee contributed 13 points apiece!
Finally, one of the best examples of what can happen when you pressure this Tarheels team can be seen in their match ups with Clemson. Yes, Clemson, a team known for pressuring the basketball with a multitude of traps and presses. North Carolina played Clemson 3 times this season and for all the talk about their "ultra-efficient" offense, Carolina averaged almost 20 turnovers per game in those 3 contests. Not only is Pitino's defense similar, but it possesses better personnel than the Tigers, and it'll show tonight.
Bottom line, underestimate this Cardinals squad at your own risk, as they're coming off a trouncing of an excellent Tennessee team, and have all the pieces necessary to beat this North Carolina team outright here tonight. We'll take the points, but make no mistake, the Tarheels are in for the fight of their tourney, and going against a surging Louisville team that's 17-6 ATS since the New Year and 3-1 ATS as a dog, isn't my idea of a smart bet. In the end, count on Louisville to grab the cash in this one!
Take Louisville plus the points over North Carolina as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Warriors- This is exactly the kind of match up the Warriors love, facing another high-octane offense, that plays little to no defense... So why would you side with the Nuggets in this one? Yes, we all know the Warriors are sitting a 1/2 ahead of the Nuggets for the 8th and final Western Conference playoff spot, but that gives just as much motivation to Golden State as it does Denver, so you pretty much disregard that factor as its an even motivator.
Just look back at their recent match ups this season, in both games either: A. The Warriors won outright at Denver 105-95 Or B. The Warriors still kept it close, despite losing at home 124-120... What I'm trying to show you is the difference between these two teams is marginal at best, because neither plays any defense.
Speaking of defense, over their last 5 games, both teams are allowing an average of about 107.5 ppg. This doesn't bode well for Denver as the chalk, because clearly the Warriors want to run, and Denver will allow them to do it. Also, don't be too impressed by the Nuggets 4-game winning streak SUATS... If you look at the competition, Memphis, New Jersey, Toronto, Nowitzki-less Dallas, it just isn't anything to write home about.
Finally, match ups are a problem for the Nuggets, as the backcourt of Davis and Ellis can take advantage of the defensively inept Carter and Iverson. Iverson used to be a decent defender, but age and his love of offense has gotten the best of him. In the frontcourt, we'll give Denver a slight edge, but Jackson can be just as dangerous as Carmelo, while Camby and Martin can be maddeningly inconsistent at times.
Bottom line, I just don't see that much difference between these two teams, especially when you consider what's at stake in this match up. With just a 1/2 game separating these two teams, neither one can afford to lay an egg here, and I expect a high-scoring contest, coming down to the waning moments... Either way, we grab the cash!
Take the Warriors plus the points over the Nuggets in this NBA match up.
3. Trail Blazers- Its easy to say: "No Brandon Roy equals no win for Portland," but that would be short-sighted in this match up, as the Bobcats are anything but consistent on the road, while the Blazers play their best ball at the Rose Garden.
I know its been a struggle for these Blazers of late, but let's not get carried away. They're still a much better team than the Bobcats, who've won just 8 games on the road all season, going 12-22-2 ATS away over that span. Sure, they beat the suddenly struggling Lakers (who lost to Memphis at home yesterday) at the Staples Center, but don't let one win erase a season's worth of road woes.
Biggest disparity between these two teams is defense, the Blazers have it, while the Bobcats could care less. Charlotte, allows 103 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel this season, and despite the Blazers recent troubles, they've been able to score points at home, averaging 103 ppg over their last 4 at the Rose Garden (3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS).
Remember guys, we're talking about a Bobcats offense that scored just 96 points in their win (but no cover) against the Sonics in their last one... The same Sonics defense that allowed a mind-boggling 168 points to the Nuggets two weeks ago! If the Bobcats had issues scoring in Seattle, just wait until they match up against this Portland defense tonight.
Finally, while Charlotte is not even in contention, at the very least the Blazers can make a nice run at the final playoff spot... Of course they won't get it, sitting 6.5 games back from Denver, but its a solid motivational factor for a team that will be on the upswing next season with Oden in the mix. The last thing the Blazers want is to finish the season tail-spinning, especially if they start losing to teams like Charlotte at the Rose Garden. In the end, Portland's defense makes the difference, en route to solid Blazers home win and cover in this one.
Take the Trail Blazers over the Bobcats in late NBA action Saturday.
1. 300,000♦ Louisville
2. 50,000♦ Warriors
3. 50,000♦ Trail Blazers
1. Louisville- Neither one of these teams has faced much of a challenge in their path to this clash of the Titans, but that's about to change real quick, as both teams featured here are not only excellent defensively, but playing their best basketball of the season. The difference between these two squads is minimal, which is exactly I'm taking Louisville plus the points in this match up. But let me explain further...
Wondering whether the Cardinals can slow down a Tarheels offense averaging 96 ppg over their first three tourney games? The answer is yes, and there's two reasons why: A. Louisville is fundamentally one of the best defenses North Carolina will see all year, allowing 60 ppg on 38% shooting this season. Just ask Tennessee, who scored a measly 60 points on just 33% shooting Thursday. And B. The Cardinals have the size inside to stymy the Tarheels # 1 weapon, C Tyler Hansbrough, who'll be matched up against one of the few players with as much basketball IQ as he has in senior C David Padgett. If Washington State's bigmen were able to slow Hansbrough, then so can the Cardinals excellent frontline.
On the offensive end, Louisville may not have the firepower the Tarheels have, but they've got more than enough balance to make up for it. The emergence of F Earl Clark is huge, who's led the Cardinals in scoring in all 3 tourney games despite coming off the bench! Other than him, Padgett, Williams, Caracter, and Palacios make up one of the deepest and most talented frontline in the college game. And as we saw against the Vols, the Cardinals guards are rock-solid, with Smith and McGee contributed 13 points apiece!
Finally, one of the best examples of what can happen when you pressure this Tarheels team can be seen in their match ups with Clemson. Yes, Clemson, a team known for pressuring the basketball with a multitude of traps and presses. North Carolina played Clemson 3 times this season and for all the talk about their "ultra-efficient" offense, Carolina averaged almost 20 turnovers per game in those 3 contests. Not only is Pitino's defense similar, but it possesses better personnel than the Tigers, and it'll show tonight.
Bottom line, underestimate this Cardinals squad at your own risk, as they're coming off a trouncing of an excellent Tennessee team, and have all the pieces necessary to beat this North Carolina team outright here tonight. We'll take the points, but make no mistake, the Tarheels are in for the fight of their tourney, and going against a surging Louisville team that's 17-6 ATS since the New Year and 3-1 ATS as a dog, isn't my idea of a smart bet. In the end, count on Louisville to grab the cash in this one!
Take Louisville plus the points over North Carolina as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Warriors- This is exactly the kind of match up the Warriors love, facing another high-octane offense, that plays little to no defense... So why would you side with the Nuggets in this one? Yes, we all know the Warriors are sitting a 1/2 ahead of the Nuggets for the 8th and final Western Conference playoff spot, but that gives just as much motivation to Golden State as it does Denver, so you pretty much disregard that factor as its an even motivator.
Just look back at their recent match ups this season, in both games either: A. The Warriors won outright at Denver 105-95 Or B. The Warriors still kept it close, despite losing at home 124-120... What I'm trying to show you is the difference between these two teams is marginal at best, because neither plays any defense.
Speaking of defense, over their last 5 games, both teams are allowing an average of about 107.5 ppg. This doesn't bode well for Denver as the chalk, because clearly the Warriors want to run, and Denver will allow them to do it. Also, don't be too impressed by the Nuggets 4-game winning streak SUATS... If you look at the competition, Memphis, New Jersey, Toronto, Nowitzki-less Dallas, it just isn't anything to write home about.
Finally, match ups are a problem for the Nuggets, as the backcourt of Davis and Ellis can take advantage of the defensively inept Carter and Iverson. Iverson used to be a decent defender, but age and his love of offense has gotten the best of him. In the frontcourt, we'll give Denver a slight edge, but Jackson can be just as dangerous as Carmelo, while Camby and Martin can be maddeningly inconsistent at times.
Bottom line, I just don't see that much difference between these two teams, especially when you consider what's at stake in this match up. With just a 1/2 game separating these two teams, neither one can afford to lay an egg here, and I expect a high-scoring contest, coming down to the waning moments... Either way, we grab the cash!
Take the Warriors plus the points over the Nuggets in this NBA match up.
3. Trail Blazers- Its easy to say: "No Brandon Roy equals no win for Portland," but that would be short-sighted in this match up, as the Bobcats are anything but consistent on the road, while the Blazers play their best ball at the Rose Garden.
I know its been a struggle for these Blazers of late, but let's not get carried away. They're still a much better team than the Bobcats, who've won just 8 games on the road all season, going 12-22-2 ATS away over that span. Sure, they beat the suddenly struggling Lakers (who lost to Memphis at home yesterday) at the Staples Center, but don't let one win erase a season's worth of road woes.
Biggest disparity between these two teams is defense, the Blazers have it, while the Bobcats could care less. Charlotte, allows 103 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel this season, and despite the Blazers recent troubles, they've been able to score points at home, averaging 103 ppg over their last 4 at the Rose Garden (3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS).
Remember guys, we're talking about a Bobcats offense that scored just 96 points in their win (but no cover) against the Sonics in their last one... The same Sonics defense that allowed a mind-boggling 168 points to the Nuggets two weeks ago! If the Bobcats had issues scoring in Seattle, just wait until they match up against this Portland defense tonight.
Finally, while Charlotte is not even in contention, at the very least the Blazers can make a nice run at the final playoff spot... Of course they won't get it, sitting 6.5 games back from Denver, but its a solid motivational factor for a team that will be on the upswing next season with Oden in the mix. The last thing the Blazers want is to finish the season tail-spinning, especially if they start losing to teams like Charlotte at the Rose Garden. In the end, Portland's defense makes the difference, en route to solid Blazers home win and cover in this one.
Take the Trail Blazers over the Bobcats in late NBA action Saturday.
Dr. BOB
Louisville (+5 ?) over North Carolina
North Carolina and Louisville have both been very impressive so far in this tournament, with both teams covering the spread in all 3 games. I expect Louisville to continue their pointspread run today as they qualify in a 20-4-2 ATS round 4 situation. Louisville struggled in their pre-conference schedule without big man David Padgett (4-6 ATS), but the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS with Padgett in the lineup, including 16-4 ATS when not favored by 14 points or more and 8-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 4 points or as an underdog so theyve played well against other good teams. North Carolina is 23-10-1 ATS this season but a lot of their spread wins were against mediocre or bad teams (12-2 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more) and the Tarheels are just 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 8 points this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 5 points after awarding the Heels 2 ? points for playing in nearby Charlotte. As good as North Carolina has been in the tournament so far, my math model using only the 3 NCAA Tournament games for each team also favors the Tarheels by 5 points. The only thing keeping this from being a Best Bet on Louisville is the 114-75 ATS record of teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament. Ill lean with Louisville at +5 points or more. My predicted total is 153 points.
Xavier (+6) over Ucla
UCLA is just 0-5 ATS the last 3 years as a favorite of more than 3 points in round 2 or higher of the NCAA Tournament (0-2 ATS this year) and the Bruins are up against a scrappy Xavier team that is 5-0-1 ATS in all NCAA tourney games under coach Sean Miller and 6-0 ATS under Miller as an underdog of 5 points or more. My ratings favor UCLA by just 5 points and teams seeded #3 or worse are 15-5-2 ATS as underdogs in round 4 against teams seeded #2 or better since 1995. Ill consider Xavier a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and Ill lean with the Musketeers at +5 ? or +5 points. My predicted total is 130 1/2 points.
Louisville (+5 ?) over North Carolina
North Carolina and Louisville have both been very impressive so far in this tournament, with both teams covering the spread in all 3 games. I expect Louisville to continue their pointspread run today as they qualify in a 20-4-2 ATS round 4 situation. Louisville struggled in their pre-conference schedule without big man David Padgett (4-6 ATS), but the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS with Padgett in the lineup, including 16-4 ATS when not favored by 14 points or more and 8-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 4 points or as an underdog so theyve played well against other good teams. North Carolina is 23-10-1 ATS this season but a lot of their spread wins were against mediocre or bad teams (12-2 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more) and the Tarheels are just 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 8 points this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 5 points after awarding the Heels 2 ? points for playing in nearby Charlotte. As good as North Carolina has been in the tournament so far, my math model using only the 3 NCAA Tournament games for each team also favors the Tarheels by 5 points. The only thing keeping this from being a Best Bet on Louisville is the 114-75 ATS record of teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament. Ill lean with Louisville at +5 points or more. My predicted total is 153 points.
Xavier (+6) over Ucla
UCLA is just 0-5 ATS the last 3 years as a favorite of more than 3 points in round 2 or higher of the NCAA Tournament (0-2 ATS this year) and the Bruins are up against a scrappy Xavier team that is 5-0-1 ATS in all NCAA tourney games under coach Sean Miller and 6-0 ATS under Miller as an underdog of 5 points or more. My ratings favor UCLA by just 5 points and teams seeded #3 or worse are 15-5-2 ATS as underdogs in round 4 against teams seeded #2 or better since 1995. Ill consider Xavier a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and Ill lean with the Musketeers at +5 ? or +5 points. My predicted total is 130 1/2 points.
