Saturday Service Plays 6/28
- Thread starter Kid Pebble
- Start date
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
Saturday June 28, 2008 MLB Daily Selection
Boston(Lester) vs. Houston(Backe)
Boston Red Sox Runline -1.5(+125) Moneyline (-135)
Line Origin: Pinnacle @ 12:15 am CST June 28
Game Time: June 28 @ 6:05 pm CST
Saturday June 28, 2008 MLB Daily Selection
Boston(Lester) vs. Houston(Backe)
Boston Red Sox Runline -1.5(+125) Moneyline (-135)
Line Origin: Pinnacle @ 12:15 am CST June 28
Game Time: June 28 @ 6:05 pm CST
SAPKOWSKI 79-42
6-0 premium picks run
Premium 41-21 L62, Yesterday 2-0 (BOS Red Sox,OAK Athletics)
BOS Red Sox
DET Tigers
Free picks 38-21 L57, 1-1 Yesterday (TB Rays"W",COL Rockies"L")
ATL Braves
KC Royals
Tips:For Euro 2008 spain to win
6-0 premium picks run
Premium 41-21 L62, Yesterday 2-0 (BOS Red Sox,OAK Athletics)
BOS Red Sox
DET Tigers
Free picks 38-21 L57, 1-1 Yesterday (TB Rays"W",COL Rockies"L")
ATL Braves
KC Royals
Tips:For Euro 2008 spain to win
MALINSKY
Been posting him here since he was 2-0 gl
Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins Jun 28 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Florida Marlins
Your pick will be graded at: 126 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA over ARIZONA
Is it as easy as simply playing the better team in the role of the home underdog? It is, particularly when the marketplace does not appreciate how wide the gap is, and also how far off of his ?A? game that Brandon Webb is.
After that ?strong? start, Arizona has now fallen all the way back to .500. We put quotations around strong because the reality turned out to be more a case of the weaknesses of the N.L. West than the strengths of the Diamondbacks. It continues to show as they get exposed on the road, with an abysmal 8-22 record as a non-division traveler. And in the 23 games they have played either home or away against teams that currently sport winning records, it is even worse at a hideous 5-18. Webb may bring enough past reputation to be given the mantle of favorite here, but not enough to the mound to turn that form around.
The Arizona right-hander is on an 0-2/8.22 slide over his last three starts, with the Diamondbacks also losing the no-decision. He will correct over time, but this is not the ideal place for it. Like most sinker-ball pitchers, the more he works the more effective he is, but like the others he also has trouble getting the ball down when his arm is too fresh. That has been the culprit in this slide. He threw only 58 pitches against the Mets on June 11th, which took him out of rhythm, and it got exacerbated when he had five days in between starts before taking on Oakland. He had nothing that day in his worst performance in several years, and because of that his stint was just 84 pitches. It was another loss at Minnesota on Sunday, when his pitch count again stayed below 100, and now once again he has to work after having five days off. It is easy to project his struggles to continue here, particularly against the quality of left-handers in the Florida lineup (they continue to hit him significantly harder than right-handers)
Meanwhile there is also value to be found from Andrew Miller, whose 5-6/5.03 in the pitching forms obviously scares potential investors away. But we have written about the Miller story before - he indeed got off to a terrible start, which can happen for a guy with excellent stuff, but little seasoning. He was thrown to the wolves because of Marlin injuries, instead of being able to develop in the Minor?s. But over his last 10 starts it has been a solid 3.21, with nearly as many strikeouts (45) as hits allows (48). His confidence will be at a high level here, having held the Phillies to one run over seven innings of his last home start (seven strikeouts, four hits), and also having shut these Diamondbacks out over seven innings of an easy win on May 22nd (nine strikeouts, five hits). And with Ricky Nolasco working deep into the night on Friday, all key Florida bullpen arms are rested and ready.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Florida Marlins OFF
OFF
-136
8
-110 -132
8
-105
New York Yankees at New York Mets Jun 28 2008 3:55PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* YANKEES/METS Under
With the bulk of the starters for each team playing both end of Friday?s draining double-header, which included some rushed travel between games, the last thing that they need is to have to come back for this afternoon affair, particularly against the likes of Andy Pettitte and Johan Santana. It means some general fatigue all the way around, particularly for a Yankee team that did not get the usual rest on Thursday night, after getting a late flight out of Pittsburgh. So with the key arms in the bullpens also fresh off of the Friday blowouts, and the shadows in Shea that will be cause by this starting time, we have excellent value here.
Pettitte has show that he is a ?Pro?s Pro? in recent outings. Four starts back he had one of the more embarrassing outings of his career against Kansas City, culminated by a Jose Guillen grand slam in the seventh inning, but he has rebounded brilliantly since then - it has been a 3-0/0.43 run over 21 innings in which he has more strikeouts than base-runners allowed, and we can confidently call for him to continue that run against a Met lineup that has been able to beat up on bad pitchers, but has truly struggled vs. quality with Moises Alou and Ryan Church. Meanwhile Santana has worked to a 4-0/2.98 lifetime tune against the Yankees, including an earlier win in the Bronx this season, and can continue their difficulties against left-handers this season, a logical issue for them because of the make up of their lineup.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
New York Yankees
New York Mets OFF
OFF
7.5
-122 -105
7.5
-122 100
Rockies (RL) at Tigers (RL) Jun 28 2008 7:05PM
PICK: Tigers (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* DETROIT Run Line over COLORADO
It should not come as any surprise at all that we are involved here. We have been backing the Tigers with regularity on their turnaround (now 15-4 and counting, and with our own run being 6-0 behind them over the last 13 games), particularly when Justin Verlander is involved. A slumping Colorado team does not get in the way tonight.
Verlander still only shows a 4-9/4.49 as his season bottom line, but his stuff is back. In his last start he had a season high of 10 strikeouts at San Diego, and the last time he worked from this mound he pitched a complete-game beauty against the White Sox in which he only allowed one run on four hits, without walking a batter. His last four starts from this mound have produced a 1.74 ERA, and we only expect him to get better as his confidence returns. Scott Podsdednik is the only Colorado player with more than three career at-bats against him, and seven of the projected starters have never faced him at all, which makes the Rockies hard-pressed to break out of an offensive funk that has seen them score only 10 runs in the first four games of this road trip. When the likes of Luke Hochevar and Eddie Bonine reach their career-high of innings pitched (both went a solid eight) in back-to-back games, a guy like Verlander is the last thing that you want to see. And with Jim Leyland now having a full arsenal of bullpen weapons, the latter innings are in good hands as well.
That leaves it up to the Detroit offense to get after Jeff Francis, and they should relish this opportunity. As logic would dictate they have been mashing left-handers this season, and in the current cycle they have been mashing everyone - how about 45 hits over the last three games? This offense is going to wear opposing pitching staffs out over the warmer summer evenings, and Francis brings a most fragile psyche to the matchup. He has worked to an ugly 1-3/6.07 on the road this season, which does not include that early outing at St. Louis in which he was hammered, but rain washed away the inept showing from the ?official? statistics. In those road miseries he has been tagged for nine home runs in 46 innings, and in truth it has been even worse than that - consider that he threw seven shutout innings against weak division opponents Los Angeles and San Diego, and has been pelted in all other outings, with the punchless Royals tagging him for seven runs over 4.1 innings of his last start, including a pair of home runs.
The Rockies are 5-15 in non-division road games this season, with 12 of those losses coming by multiple runs. The fact that we can get an underdog payback in a game that we expect to break wide open has us stepping the investment up here, to maximize the great value that the situation brings.
Been posting him here since he was 2-0 gl
Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins Jun 28 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Florida Marlins
Your pick will be graded at: 126 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA over ARIZONA
Is it as easy as simply playing the better team in the role of the home underdog? It is, particularly when the marketplace does not appreciate how wide the gap is, and also how far off of his ?A? game that Brandon Webb is.
After that ?strong? start, Arizona has now fallen all the way back to .500. We put quotations around strong because the reality turned out to be more a case of the weaknesses of the N.L. West than the strengths of the Diamondbacks. It continues to show as they get exposed on the road, with an abysmal 8-22 record as a non-division traveler. And in the 23 games they have played either home or away against teams that currently sport winning records, it is even worse at a hideous 5-18. Webb may bring enough past reputation to be given the mantle of favorite here, but not enough to the mound to turn that form around.
The Arizona right-hander is on an 0-2/8.22 slide over his last three starts, with the Diamondbacks also losing the no-decision. He will correct over time, but this is not the ideal place for it. Like most sinker-ball pitchers, the more he works the more effective he is, but like the others he also has trouble getting the ball down when his arm is too fresh. That has been the culprit in this slide. He threw only 58 pitches against the Mets on June 11th, which took him out of rhythm, and it got exacerbated when he had five days in between starts before taking on Oakland. He had nothing that day in his worst performance in several years, and because of that his stint was just 84 pitches. It was another loss at Minnesota on Sunday, when his pitch count again stayed below 100, and now once again he has to work after having five days off. It is easy to project his struggles to continue here, particularly against the quality of left-handers in the Florida lineup (they continue to hit him significantly harder than right-handers)
Meanwhile there is also value to be found from Andrew Miller, whose 5-6/5.03 in the pitching forms obviously scares potential investors away. But we have written about the Miller story before - he indeed got off to a terrible start, which can happen for a guy with excellent stuff, but little seasoning. He was thrown to the wolves because of Marlin injuries, instead of being able to develop in the Minor?s. But over his last 10 starts it has been a solid 3.21, with nearly as many strikeouts (45) as hits allows (48). His confidence will be at a high level here, having held the Phillies to one run over seven innings of his last home start (seven strikeouts, four hits), and also having shut these Diamondbacks out over seven innings of an easy win on May 22nd (nine strikeouts, five hits). And with Ricky Nolasco working deep into the night on Friday, all key Florida bullpen arms are rested and ready.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Florida Marlins OFF
OFF
-136
8
-110 -132
8
-105
New York Yankees at New York Mets Jun 28 2008 3:55PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* YANKEES/METS Under
With the bulk of the starters for each team playing both end of Friday?s draining double-header, which included some rushed travel between games, the last thing that they need is to have to come back for this afternoon affair, particularly against the likes of Andy Pettitte and Johan Santana. It means some general fatigue all the way around, particularly for a Yankee team that did not get the usual rest on Thursday night, after getting a late flight out of Pittsburgh. So with the key arms in the bullpens also fresh off of the Friday blowouts, and the shadows in Shea that will be cause by this starting time, we have excellent value here.
Pettitte has show that he is a ?Pro?s Pro? in recent outings. Four starts back he had one of the more embarrassing outings of his career against Kansas City, culminated by a Jose Guillen grand slam in the seventh inning, but he has rebounded brilliantly since then - it has been a 3-0/0.43 run over 21 innings in which he has more strikeouts than base-runners allowed, and we can confidently call for him to continue that run against a Met lineup that has been able to beat up on bad pitchers, but has truly struggled vs. quality with Moises Alou and Ryan Church. Meanwhile Santana has worked to a 4-0/2.98 lifetime tune against the Yankees, including an earlier win in the Bronx this season, and can continue their difficulties against left-handers this season, a logical issue for them because of the make up of their lineup.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
New York Yankees
New York Mets OFF
OFF
7.5
-122 -105
7.5
-122 100
Rockies (RL) at Tigers (RL) Jun 28 2008 7:05PM
PICK: Tigers (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* DETROIT Run Line over COLORADO
It should not come as any surprise at all that we are involved here. We have been backing the Tigers with regularity on their turnaround (now 15-4 and counting, and with our own run being 6-0 behind them over the last 13 games), particularly when Justin Verlander is involved. A slumping Colorado team does not get in the way tonight.
Verlander still only shows a 4-9/4.49 as his season bottom line, but his stuff is back. In his last start he had a season high of 10 strikeouts at San Diego, and the last time he worked from this mound he pitched a complete-game beauty against the White Sox in which he only allowed one run on four hits, without walking a batter. His last four starts from this mound have produced a 1.74 ERA, and we only expect him to get better as his confidence returns. Scott Podsdednik is the only Colorado player with more than three career at-bats against him, and seven of the projected starters have never faced him at all, which makes the Rockies hard-pressed to break out of an offensive funk that has seen them score only 10 runs in the first four games of this road trip. When the likes of Luke Hochevar and Eddie Bonine reach their career-high of innings pitched (both went a solid eight) in back-to-back games, a guy like Verlander is the last thing that you want to see. And with Jim Leyland now having a full arsenal of bullpen weapons, the latter innings are in good hands as well.
That leaves it up to the Detroit offense to get after Jeff Francis, and they should relish this opportunity. As logic would dictate they have been mashing left-handers this season, and in the current cycle they have been mashing everyone - how about 45 hits over the last three games? This offense is going to wear opposing pitching staffs out over the warmer summer evenings, and Francis brings a most fragile psyche to the matchup. He has worked to an ugly 1-3/6.07 on the road this season, which does not include that early outing at St. Louis in which he was hammered, but rain washed away the inept showing from the ?official? statistics. In those road miseries he has been tagged for nine home runs in 46 innings, and in truth it has been even worse than that - consider that he threw seven shutout innings against weak division opponents Los Angeles and San Diego, and has been pelted in all other outings, with the punchless Royals tagging him for seven runs over 4.1 innings of his last start, including a pair of home runs.
The Rockies are 5-15 in non-division road games this season, with 12 of those losses coming by multiple runs. The fact that we can get an underdog payback in a game that we expect to break wide open has us stepping the investment up here, to maximize the great value that the situation brings.
Wayne Root
Chairman - LA Angels
Millionaire- S. Diego
Money Maker - St. Louis
Perfect Play- Chicago WS
Chairman - LA Angels
Millionaire- S. Diego
Money Maker - St. Louis
Perfect Play- Chicago WS
