Saturday Service plays 9/13/2008

[the duke]

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Iowa -13 Blowout GOW
vs Iowa St Saturday Noon ET (1-0 in Big 12 )
Home favorite System: 44-15 ats, 75% thru 15 seasons
Iowa St in a tough spot off a revenge game at home for a
loss at home last season to Kent. They run into a red hot
Iowa team playing with the revenge for a 2 pt loss at Iowa
St last season as a 17 pt road chalk.
Here we get to use one of our favorite angles. Iowa St will
be starting an inexperienced QB on the road in this game.
We love to go vs a green QB in his 1st road start in a
hostile stadium. With the Hawkeyes playing with revenge
and rolling up big numbers, we think this gets ugly.
System play to:
Play Against any 2-0 College FB team if they are playing in
their first road game of the season game AND they must be
an underdog and game line must be in this spread range.
26-14, 65% S1980, including 14-5, S2001, 74% .


New Mexico +11 Pac 10 GOW (3-1 Pac 10 gms TY)
vs Arizona Saturday 10 pm et
Arizona barely snuck past the big number at home last
week winning 41-16 as a 24 pt home chalk. AZ blew out
Idaho at home the week before, but we think they come
up short laying dble digits on the road today. The points
look promising as things will not go so perfectly well for
Arizona 3 wks in a row, and in a tough road venue. The
young Wildcat defense that returns just 3 starters from
last year, is an untested and inexperienced group that
will struggle some in their first game away from home.
Team Specific system play that has gone 32-8 S1987.
That's 80% thru 21 seasons, including covering in 15
of the last 18 chances.
AZ 3-8 as non conf favs of 3+, 8-20 as 3 to 12 pt favs ,


Arkansas St - 1.5 ** TOP Play ** Small College GOM
vs S Mississippi 7 pm et
We played against S Miss last week in their road game
at Arkansas. We just missed the cover as S miss lost by
14 as a 17 pt dog. We think we get even here. S Miss was
fortunate to stay respectably close with Auburn last week.
The Golden Eagles will face a tough situation tonite with a
2nd straight road game vs a confident Ark St team after
posting 83 pts last week and beating Texas A&M on the
road in Wk1. Last season Arkansas St badly out gained
the Eagles at S Miss but lost by 6. The Red Wolves have
huge momentum and revenge and this is a very big game
for them.
We have a Play On home favorites system that says the
positive momentum will continue.
Overall Record thru 7 seasons, 25-6-1...81%


Texas - 23 (1-0 in Big 12)
vs Arkansas 3:30 et
System play leads us in here to:
Play Against any 2-0 College FB team if they are playing in
their first road game of the season game AND they must be
an underdog and game line must be in this spread range.
26-14, 65% S1980, including 14-5, S2001, 74% .
Arkansas has not been able to run the ball or stop the run
in 2 games vs pretty weak teams. Those shortcomings
will bring disaster vs a strong Texas team at home.
Arkansas has had to come from behind in dramatic fashion
to manage wins in their first 2 home games, despite playing
two weaker level teams. They should be drained emotionally
and we expect them to be flat today.
Texas 13-6-1 L20 as a home fav, 11-2 home vs a team with
revenge off 2 SU wins.



Boise St -16.5
vs Bowling Green 8 pm et
This looks like a game in which B Green could get over
whelmed in early. We'll take a shot that Boise will be far
enough ahead, and grind time with their running game to
curtail the possible backdoor cover. Boise has a game at
Oregon on deck. We feel the Bronco's will be chomping at
the bit with 2 wks to get ready for this game. Boise is an
incredible home team, and almost always a first look when
they are at home. Trouble is, you have to pay a big price
when backing Boise at home. Here, we think Boise can win
this by at least 21, so we'll jump in.
The Broncos have covered nearly 75% of the time as a
home favorite since 1992. We get an even better 10-3
mark since 1992 if we make the posted total in the game
between 56 to 63 ots....77% for 15 seasons.
This is more a feel play..it smells like a B-L-O-W-O-U-T

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL

CFB

BYU -9 to UCLA

Oregon -6 to Purdue--Ducks go in to West Lafayette and dance

Georgia -10 at South Carolina

Virginia Tech -10 to Georgia Tech

Clemson -20 to NC St

Baylor -3.5 to Washington St

Michigan St -14.5 to FAU


BIG SPREADS MEANS BIG BALLS:


Illinois -26 to La Lafayette

Middle Tennessee +18.5

Utah -25 to Utah St

Washington +20 from Oklahoma

Tennessee -34 to UAB

Penn St -26 to Syracuse

Nebraska -28 to New Mexico St


GO LIGHT ON THESE:

Rutgers -6 to NC

Toledo +3.5 from E.Michigan

Texas -23 to Arkansas

Iowa -13 to Iowa St

Western Michigan -11.5 to Idaho

Central Michigan -3 to Ohio

S.Miss -2.5 to Arkansas St




WHY THE HELL NOT ?

CAL -10 to Maryland

Arizona -10 to New Mexico

Arizona St -24.5 to UNLV

San Jose St -4 to San Diego St



MLB

BEST IN BOLD

Minney -160 at Baltimore--Perkins get the W at Camden

NY Yanks -120 over TB--Mussina gets #18

Cleveland -140 over KC in Game 1

Tribe -150 in Game 2

LA +105 at Colorado--Kershaw in the thin air at Coors

 

[the duke]

Tony Stevens


09/13 Alabama-Birmingham Blazers at Tennessee Volunteers

Blazers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Volunteers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Take the Tennessee Volunteers -29.5 (-110)



09/13 Virginia Cavaliers at Connecticut Huskies

Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Take the Connecticut Huskies -10.5 (-110)



09/13 England - Premier League

Liverpool vs Manchester U. - Take Manchester U. (+163)

 

[the duke]

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Fresno +1.5 vs Wisconsin
Penn State -27.5 vs Syracuse
Baylor -1 vs Washington State
TCU -13 vs Stanford
Michigan State -17 vs Florida Atlantic
Western Michigan -8 vs Idaho

Single Plays

Auburn -10 vs Mississippi State
Nebraska -25.5 vs New Mexico State
Memphis +3.5 vs Marshall
Boise -16.5 vs Bowling Green
Utah -24.5 vs Utah State
Arizona State -23 vs UNLV
Arizona -10.5 vs New Mexico
USC -11 vs Ohio State

 

[the duke]

Gamebreaker Sports Consultants


POWER TRIPLE PLAY
California
East Carolina
Georgia


Late Slammer
Michigan State

 

[the duke]

RON RAYMOND

5* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH!
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San Jose State -6

 

[the duke]

Red Zone Sports

Blowout Game of the Month
BYU -8

We're fading the UCLA Bruins here as they will get pounded Saturday. Byu QB Max Hall has made his way onto the national scene. Hall, who was named the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Week, connected on 30-of-41 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns.
We feel UCLA will drop back to reality. This team isn't very good and now has to go on the road and match one of the best offense's. Ucla has a good run Defense but that won't matter here.
BYU BY DBL DIGITS


Underdog Game of the Month
Rice +9

We're on the Rice gunslinger Quarterback Chase Clement who continues to shine, as he overcame a pair of interceptions by throwing for 318 yards and a touchdown.

Clement passed for 258 yards and six scores in an opening win over SMU. Thje Rice Owls are 13-4 ATS last 3 years after playing a conference game & 8-2 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference rival.
Looking at Vanderbilt they are 1-5 ATS since 1992 as a home favorite of 7 1/2 to 10 points. & Vandy Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Looking at Vanderbilt they are 0-10 ATS as non conference home favorites 17 or less points.

 

[the duke]

The Gold Sheet

KEY RELEASES

UCLA by 3 over Byu
OREGON STATE by 26 over Hawaii
FRESNO STATE by 11 over Wisconsin
WASHINGTON Plus over Oklahoma



***Ucla 26 - BYU 23?Dodging last week?s bullet in Seattle temporarily
keeps BYU?s BCS dreams alive. But remember, BYU wasn?t better than UCLA a year ago, when teams split a pair and Cougs were fortunate to survive Las Vegas Bowl nailbiter. And despite early injuries piling up for Rick Neuheisel?s Bruins, they were resilient enough to overcome Tennessee in opener. Emergence of QB Craft gives sage UCLA o.c. Chow (back in old Provo haunt) some options, and Bruins? 11 straight covers in dog role impressive! (07-UCLA 27-Byu 17...B.23-15 U.37/110 B.25/44 B.30/53/1/391 U.13/28/1/126 U.0 B.3) (07-Byu 17 - Ucla 16...U18-17 U47-162 B.28/34 B.21/35/0/231 U.11/29/1/154 B.1 U.2) (07-UCLA -8 27-17; Byu -6 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl)...SR: UCLA 7-2)


***OREGON STATE 42 - Hawaii 16?Home cooking can?t help but
agree with OSU after its Stanford & Penn State misadventures. But look hard enough and there might be a silver lining for Beavers, as frosh RB Jacquizz Rodgers hinting at gamebreaker status, and sr. WRs Stroughter & Morales providing reliable targets for QB Moevao. Meanwhile, UH Red Gun a long way from past editions, with new HC McMackin juggling QBs Funaki & Graunke and rebuilt WR corps in adjustment phase. (06-Oregon State +8 35-32...SR: OSU 4-3)


***FRESNO STATE 32 - Wisconsin 21?We?re still not sure Fresno is
ready to crash the BCS party or re-establish control of WAC (Boise State is still quite formidable), but this rare opportunity to host a major foe is the sort of assignment Pat Hill?s Bulldogs have lived for this decade. Granted, Wisconsin?s power game will be a challenge, but this is first road start as a Badger for QB Evridge, and Wiscy aerial game compromised if key TE Beckum still out or still slowed by nagging hamstring. FSU?s QB Brandstater?s confidence grows if RB Matthews (163 YR vs. Rutgers) provides necessary infantry diversion. REGIONAL TV?ABC (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)


***WASHINGTON 27 - Oklahoma 38?Rest assured U-Dub?s end zone
celebrations will be about as subdued as one of Bob Schieffer?s ?Face the
Nation? interviews after last week?s costly penalty on Jake Locker at the death of the game vs. BYU. And though Huskies might not be in a position to level matters with OU at the end as they were vs. Cougars, UW proved it could dig deep at home and deliver a kamikaze effort for the under-fire, but wellrespected Ty Willingham. Tough to trade points with QB Bradford and Sooner no-huddle scoring 55 ppg, but OU ?D? had some leaks exposed by Cincy last week. CABLE TV?ESPN (06-OKLAHOMA -16' 37-20...SR: EVEN 1-1)



CKO- Confidential Kick-Off

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average


11 *MICHIGAN STATE over Fla. Atlantic

Late Score Forecast:

*MICHIGAN STATE 45 - Fla. Atlantic 17
Michigan State HC Mark Dantonio has the Spartan program headed in the right direction, as the team has covered 8 of last 12 after a bit of a slow start to his tenure early last season. MSU showed itself to be a bit of a bully last week in manhandling Eastern Michigan 42-10 behind future pro RB Javon Ringer's 5 TDs. Expect MSU QB Brian Hoyer to regain form as he gains rapport with RS frosh WR B.J. Cunningham (8 recs., 17.4 ypc) and vet Mark Dell transitions into his new "go-to" guy to replace Devin Thomas. Florida Atlantic has not been competitive as a big underdog outside of the Sun Belt, dropping 11 of its last 12 spread decisions as a double-digit dog against non-conference foes, with an average margin of defeat of more than 37 points. Owl HC Schnellenberger will take the paycheck and focus on winning the Sun Belt.


10 *SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State

Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTHERN CAL 37 - Ohio State 16
Southern Cal has made a habit of covering against non-conference foes the last two seasons, covering 8 of last 9 encounters outside Pac-10 play, with the only spread loss coming as a 47-point favorite. The Trojans appear to be as good as advertised, as QB Mark Sanchez' knee appears sound and he was very sharp against the Cavs. Obviously, facing Ohio State is a step up for USC, but the Buckeyes have some questions entering this game. The biggest and most obvious is the health of lead RB "Beanie" Wells. Reporting on Wells' foot injury has been a nightly staple on the Big Ten Network, interesting, since HC Jim Tressel is guarding information on the subject as closely as the Pentagon guards the nuclear launch codes. Buckeye players who were recruited by USC have provided some "locker room" material, but doubt Trojans need more motivation for this game, and they have the better athletes.


10 *AKRON over Ball State

Late Score Forecast:
*AKRON 37 - Ball State 33
he Gold Sheet's MAC scouts were beating a path to the bookmaker early this week, eager to grab substantial points with Akron in its home opener. The Zips are brimming with confidence following their impressive win at Syracuse last week. Versatile sr. RB Dennis Kennedy (originally at Ohio State) is back to his fine 2006 form after an injury-plagued 2007 campaign. And rapidly-maturing jr. QB Chris Jacquemain (68%, 5 TDP, only 1 int. in first 2 games) now has new troika of targets--touted juco Deryn Bowser, converted DB sr. Andre Jones, and West Virginia transfer Jeremy Bruce (combined 24 catches for 285 yards)--in his WR arsenal. Can't knock potent Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense has plenty of holes, and Akron (6-1 last 7 as dog at Rubber Bowl) will find enough of them to have good chance at springing small upset.


10 IOWA STATE over *Iowa

Late Score Forecast:
IOWA STATE 23 -*Iowa 24
Long-time Midwest scouts report that upbeat 2-0 Iowa State has clearly shown it has fully integrated the systems and philosophy of knowledgeable 2nd-year HC Gene Chizik, who has also upgraded recruiting. So they urge us to take generous DD spread vs. Iowa squad that hasn't proven much by whipping outclassed Maine and Florida International. Cyclones will continue to effectively rotate soph QBs, 6-3 Arnaud (77%) and athletic, swift 6-1 Bates (138 YR so far), both of whom have shown they can take full advantage of a variety of weapons, including go-to sr. WR Sumrall (54 recs. LY; 8 TY) and versatile soph RB A. Robinson (465 YR & 23 catches last 5 games), who returns to action after missing Kent State with a bruised leg. Rebuilding Hawkeye defense (just 5 starters back; new CBs) will be hard-pressed to contain nicely-balanced, growing ISU attack. Meanwhile, expect Iowa's new starting soph QB Stanzi, who replaces inconsistent jr.Christensen, to make a few miscues vs. maturing, fired-up Cyclone defense, which has limited hated rival to 17 pts. or fewer in 3 of past 4 meetings. History repeats in a bitter rivalry recently dominated by Cyclones, who've covered 9 of past 10!

 

[the duke]

LT Profits


The ACC has looked terrible early in the season, but this looks like a rare winnable non-conference game for the league when Duke hosts Navy.

Ironically, the Blue Devils are generally regarded as the worst team in the ACC, yet they were one of the few teams in the conference to actually show up last week, albeit in a tough 24-20 loss to Northwestern. They did cover the spread though as six-point dogs.

What was most impressive about the Duke performance was that they limited star Northwestern running back Tyrell Sutton to just 66 rushing yards, and the entire Wildcats team to only 77 yards on a miniscule 2.9 yards per carry. Now everyone knows that all Navy does is run, so if the Blue Devils can duplicate that defensive performance and force Navy into passing situations like Ball State did last week, it would make their task that much easier.

On the other hand, the Navy defense has been downright awful in their first two games, and they allowed 488 total yards and a whopping 28 first down vs. the Cardinals last week. They did not even force Ball State to punt until their very last possession of the game.

All things considered, laying less than a field goal with Duke here seems like a solid investment.

Duke -1.5




The Ohio Bobcats gave mighty Ohio State a scare for three quarters last week, but they do not figure to have a letdown in their MAC opener, so look for them to build off of that effort and upset the Central Michigan Chippewas here.

In fact, the Chippewas also had a powerhouse opponent last week in Georgia, but unlike Ohio, Central Michigan was not competitive in a 56-17 rout. The Chippewas are more or less a one-dimensional passing team, so when quarterback Dan LeFevour struggles like he did last week, it makes this offense easier to stop.

Now Ohio has struggled a bit to stop the run, but that may not matter here as running is not a strong suit for CMU, and as Ohio State discovered, the Ohio pass defense is just fine. In fact, Ohio allowed just 272 total yards vs. the Buckeyes, which compares extremely favorably with the bloated 552 yards the Chippewas allowed to Georgia.

We feel that we are getting the better defense here catching more than a field goal at home, which seems like a favorable situation.

Ohio +3.5

 

[the duke]

Winning Points

*BEST BET*

CLEMSON* over N. C. STATE by 40
Two weeks ago we had Alabama over the Tigers at the top of this page, exposing the fact that a team that might be the ACC?s best was not ready in the trenches to match up to a physical SEC opponent. That result worked in two ways for us ?obviously getting the win was sweet, but it also came in a way that sets us up well to come right back in here at a price much shorter than it should be. Now they step way down in class to where their issues in the trenches are not a factor, and that means those explosive skill people can do their thing at will ? much like they did in last year?s 22-point win at Raleigh, when they had staggering edges of 608-202 on total offense, and 340-55 rushing. The mind-set is also going to be there,with the conference opener offering a whole new lease on the season, which means the energy to explode early, and with only South Carolina State on deck there is also no reason to back off at any time. Meanwhile the Wolfpack were not nearly as fluid on offense as the 34 points vs. William & Mary would show, with half of that scoreboard production coming after turnovers (they could only manage 11 first downs and 67 yards rushing, despite stepping down in class). And in terms of a shatter factor on the road, note that Tom O?Brien?s squad has been out-scored 88-0 over their last 9+ quarters vs. lined opponents, dating back to last November.There are simply not enough playmakers in the skill positions to keep the pace here, and we do not see this favorite letting up in this setting. CLEMSON 47-7.

*BEST BET*

SOUTHERN CAL* over OHIO STATE by 24
Give Pete Carroll ample time to prepare, and you can see something special ? just check the performances of the Trojans in bowl games and season openers starting with the end of his second campaign, when he had enough time to get the program back in order. And with two weeks to prepare, this game fits into those molds. But give him that same preparation time with a seasoned corps of seniors on defense (five Trojan defenders will likely go in the first round of the NFL draft next April),which allows him to put many chapters of his intricate playbook into action, and you have the makings of a most special season. And it does not hurt that the offense has both talent and depth, with QB Mark Sanchez having a vast array of WR?s and RB?s to work with. That spells bad news for an Ohio State team that was out-classed in terms of speed in those BCS showdowns to Florida and L.S.U. the past two years, and now faces the most unusual challenge of facing a superior team on the road in a non-conference setting. Once again it will be the inability of the offense to make things happen that sets the tone here which puts the Buckeye defense on the field far too long, and eventually leads to Southern Cal wearing them down and breaking this open in the second half. And as for trying to write last week?s sluggish showing vs. Ohio U. off as merely a ?look-ahead?, if Bobcat QB Theo Scott is not injured early do the Buckeyes even win the game? Not the way to build momentum. SOUTHERN CAL 37-13.

*PREFERRED*

Michigan over Notre Dame* by 14
Yes, the Michigan offense is going to be a work in progress until Rich Rodriguez can get his own recruitments on the field. But he still brings far better personnel than what he is up against here, and it means time for us to get back in play against Charlie Weis again. It was a sin of omission to not back San Diego State last week,but how could anyone trust an injury-riddled Aztec DL that had been run through by Cal Poly? Yet if not for a fumble literally two inches from the Notre Dame goal line in the fourth quarter on Saturday, State would have been ahead by two touchdowns,and likely would have won the game. That is all there is in South Bend, folks, with the Fighting Irish getting two full yards less per rush at home than Cal Poly could on the road vs. the same defense. With Michigan winning the last two in the series by a combined 64 points, there is a lot more gap to make up than this pointspread is calling for, and off of last year?s shutout the Wolverines can control this with defense again. MICHIGAN 27-13.

T.C.U.* over Stanford by 24
For most programs a non-conference home game against Stanford is hardly a big deal, but that is not the case for Gary Patterson and his Horned Frogs here.Because not only of their abilities, but also their physical style of play, getting opponents from BCS conferences to come to Fort Worth is becoming difficult, and when they held Mike Leach and that explosive Texas Tech offense to a lone field goal here two years ago that task became even harder. So in a season in which they have big-time aspirations, and sandwiched only between Stephen F. Austin and SMU, they will be primed to play to their peak this week. That spells bad news for Jim Harbaugh?s squad, both in terms of the emotional focus (it will not be easy to get his team up for this trip, after opening with back-to-back Pac 10 games), and also the physical matchups. The Cardinal have to be able to get Toby Gerhart and the running game untracked to be successful until their passing game develops, and overland yards will not be found against this defense. T.C.U. 34-10.

Iowa* over Iowa State by 23
Kirk Ferentz has had control of the state of Iowa for so long that year?s 15-13 at Ames in the first go-round against Gene Chizik will have been a particular sore point over the last 12 months. When a favorite does not even score as many points as the chalk that they were laying it is a humbling experience. But that was part of an injury-riddled 2007 in which a lot of new precedents got set for his program.Now many of those walking wounded are back, and the Hawkeyes have opened with the kind of offensive balance (back-to-back games of over 200 yards both running and passing) and rock-ribbed defense that we are accustomed to seeing. Now it is time to do some serious editing of year?s DVD, and we see flaws that they can clearly exploit. Note that in opening with 92 points on the scoreboard in two wins the Cyclones have yet to reach 400 yards in a game, taking advantage of 10 turnovers. And a defense that has allowed 423 yards rushing at 5.4 per carry will have been missed by those that were only looking at the scores. IOWA 37-14.

Arizona State* over U.N.L.V. by 12
Arizona State is not in Georgia?s class, something that we might be writing about near the top of these pages next week. But the Sun Devils do not know that, and having lived on or near so many campuses through his career Dennis Erickson also recognizes just how much that game means. So off of a Pac 10 win over Stanford,and with that monster showdown on deck. Just where does the motivation come from this week? One of the great subtleties of football handicapping is that often the worse an underdog appears in a given setting, the better their odds o cashing a ticket, because it makes it do difficult for the favorite to find a spark during preparation.And it also means that if the game is in hand there is no desire to increase the margin, since Erickson would like to avoid injuries and keep his starters fresh.The Rebels suit our purposes just fine here, and in QB Omar Clayton and RB Frank Summers they do have the kind of weapons that can take some time off of the clock and get points on the scoreboard. ARIZONA STATE 31-19.

Rutgers* over North Carolina by 5 (Thursday)
Is it possible that Greg Schiano has already taken the Rutgers program about as high as it can go, and now faces a struggle to maintain a winning level? Tar Heels are a work in progress, but do have an upside. RUTGERS 27-22.

Kansas over South Florida* by 4 (Friday)
The Bulls got sloppy with a late lead at Central Florida, which took that game much deeper into the night, and makes this transition even more difficult. Do they dare make a side from the struggling Big East the favorite? KANSAS 27-23.

Navy over Duke* by 3
We are seeing a legitimate spark from Duke so far under David Cutcliffe (91 offensive snaps vs. Northwestern), and even some fans showing up. But the precision of the Navy option tests the discipline and depth of a defense that can be worn down.NAVY 30-27.

Vanderbilt* over Rice by 6
Although the Commodores made a solid account of themselves in that television how case last week, this is an awkward sandwich in between two SEC games, and an offense that has only managed 585 yards in the first two games, not reaching 100 passing either team, will not cover spreads easily. VANDERBILT 30-24.

Auburn over Mississippi State* by 11
A significant revenge motive to the Tigers, who turned the ball over five times in a 19-14 home loss year, with one of the interceptions returned for a TD. But still not sure about the timing of their passing game vs. this class of defense on the road.AUBURN 24-13.

Ball State over Akron* by 6
The fact that the Zips could score at will at Syracuse only masks the fact that injuries in their own DL mean trouble rushing Nate Davis. And when there is no pressure on defense, that Cardinal passing game can click. BALL STATE 30-24.

Toledo over Eastern Michigan* by 2
Rockets blasted off on this defense to the tune of 52 points, 324 rushing yards and 276 through the air at home year. And they will enjoy re-entry into the M.A.C. orbits after having to open over their heads at Arizona. TOLEDO 31-29.

Missouri* over Nevada by 21
In theory, a case could be made that facing Texas Tech last week helps the Nevada defense to tactically prepare for this matchup. And holding Graham Harrell to 19-46 is indeed an achievement. So why don?t we believe?. MISSOURI 45-24.

 

[the duke]

Power Sweep

4H Penn St over SYRACUSE

The Syracuse dome advantage has been nonexistent (0-6 HD) and last year we used our College GOY on USF (-16?) here and it was an easy 41-10 winner. Syr is 7-5 ATS vs ranked teams and upset #18 L?ville in ?07. Penn St was just 1-4 as an AF LY but they are also 7-1 as a favorite vs non-conf. PSU QB Clark is making his 1st road start although the Lions fans will be well represented. LW Penn St rolled over Oregon St 45-14. Clark showed his grasp of the new Spread HD offense vs Oregon St and now faces our #106 def that allowed 478 yds to Akron. LW SU went with backup QB Dantley (former NBA?r Adrian?s son) but got similar results a 42-28 loss. HC Robinson is now 7-30 at Syracuse. This is an old rivalry that was played every year from 1922-?90 and Penn St leads the series 40-23-5. The Lions are 4-0 ATS as DD away fav since 1999 outscoring those opp?s 45-13!!! Could we go against Syracuse again as our September 5H? FORECAST: Penn St 52 SYRACUSE 10




OTHER SELECTIONS

2H NOTRE DAME over Michigan

LY ex-UM RB Hart vowed that the Wolves would win and they mauled ND 38-0 as both came in 0-2. UM is struggling as rFr QB Threet made his 1st start vs Miami but Sheridan guided the Wolves to its game clinching 4Q TD drive. HC Rodriguez admitted frustration that neither QB has taken command. Rod?s 1st WV team had a new QB & OL and lost 34-10 in its road opener. The veteran UM D has allowed 42 rush ypg (1.1) with 9 sks. Weis is 7-14 ATS at home including LW?s ugly 21-13 opening win over SDSt in which the Irish forced a goal line fmbl early 4Q while trailing 13-7. QB Clausen did rally the Irish with two 4Q TD passes. The Irish did miss a FG, botched another and fmbl?d away the ball on the SDSt 3. The dog is 11-2 ATS in the series. The Irish are the most improved team in the country and get legit revenge on a young offense in transition. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 23 Michigan 10


2H SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Georgia

SC?s 16-12 upset (+3?) cost GA a potential BCS Champ shot LY. Afterwards Spurrier said, ?It?s not like they were some big, powerful tm.? That?s plenty of motivation and add in the fact that GA was held without a TD for the 1st time in 6 years. GA QB Stafford (PS#2) is off to a great start avg 244 ypg (63%) with a 4-0 ratio while RB Moreno (PS#14) has shined as the feature back (227, 8.7, 6 TD). SC has had a few extra days to prepare for this off their disappointing Thurs night upset loss to Vandy. SC lost 24-17 despite a 325-225 yd edge as ST?s & TO?s cost them. QB Beecher st?d the opener (12-22 for 106 with 4 int) and Smelley st?d the Vandy loss (28-44 for 325 yds, 4-2 ratio in 2 gms). Star WR McKinley suffered a hamstring inj and missed most of LW?s gm (check status). This is always an early ssn battle (1st 3 games L/16Y) and the defenses (both in top 5 TY) have dominated lately as they?ve avg?d 26 ppg the L/3Y. Georgia has won 3 in a row in Columbia by 9 ppg. Though Richt is 25-4 SU in opponents? stadiums, UGA is 2-4 ATS the L/2Y as an AF and Spurrier needs to win this gm to have any hope of competing in the SEC East race. FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 17 (+) Georgia 16


2H IOWA over Iowa St

Not only has Iowa St covered four straight with a pair of upsets (17 pt dog LY, 9 pt dog ?06) they?ve covered by 17 ppg. New Cyclone QB Arnaud (132 ypg, 77%, 2-0) is making his first road start and really hasn?t been challenged TY. ISU lost almost 50% of their letterman and it will be tough for this team to break an 11 game road losing streak (2-6 ATS run), but they are on a 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes may have looked ahead the L2Y with conf road openers on deck but LY?s loss cost them a bowl so they?ll be attentive. Iowa rFr QB Stanzi tossed 3 TD (162 yds, 80%) in his 1st start LW but Ferentz says that the job remains open. Iowa has scored 17+ in just 4 of the last 10 meetings. Despite a 2-6 mark recently, Iowa is 24-11 ATS as a HF while Iowa St is 7-3 ATS in their first road game. LY Iowa St won without an off TD (see PH). Iowa has blown out its 1st 2 foes by a combined 88-3, outgaining them on avg by 266 ypg . Meanwhile, Iowa St has scored 40+ in its 1st 2 (most S/?76) as they?ve taken advantage of TO?s (+6) & ST play but they were outgained by Kent St LW (410-374). FORECAST: IOWA 38 Iowa St 17

 

[the duke]

Red Sheet


Air Force 38 - HOUSTON 24
(3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Houston minus 3?, & is now minus 5. The Falcons are one of the top spread streakers, & are currently on a nice 8-1 run vs the pts.And, as usual, they are doing it with their splendid overland game, which has piled up 694 yds thus far. Defensively, they've allowed a total of only 18 FDs in the early going, & caused 5 TOs in last week's 23-3 demolition of a decent Wyoming squad. Not the best of teams for this Cougar "D' to face on the heels of allowing nearly 700 yds, 379 of which came on the ground. The Coogs can crank it up, overhead, with Keenum tossing 9 TD passes already,but are on an 0-6 spread run, by 70? pts. Love the underdog role here.RATING: AIR FORCE 89


MICHIGAN STATE 47 - Florida Atlantic 17 - (Noon) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 16?, & is now minus 17. Simply no questioning the improvement of the Spartans since no-nonsense coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a year ago. From 3 consecutive losing seasons, to a near upset of BostonCollege in the '07 Champs Sports Bowl. MichiganSt is on a nice 8-3-2 spread run, with 1 of those misses by a mere ? pt in its opening 30-23 loss at California,so note the Bears' 66-3 romp over WashingtonSt last week. With Ringer off a 5-TD game, & veteran Hoyer doing the tossing, see no letup, as the Owls, behind QB Rusty Smith, were also a bowl team LY. Thus, you have total focus with the better team.RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 89


CLEMSON 48 - North Carolina State 10 - (Noon) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19?, & is now minus 18?. To say that the Tigers laid an egg in their opening week game with Alabama, would be a gigantic understatement. They ranked 9th entering that one, & crawled away with a 34-10 loss, in which they were outrushed by an incomprehensible 239-0, with their pair of stellar RBs, Harper & Stiller, being completely shackled. But got off the mark last week vs the Citadel (who wouldn't?), & should keep it going vs an NCSt team which has amassed a total of 21 FDs in its 2 games to date, & has little or no overland game to take much needed time off the clock. And a year ago, Clemson had a 608-202 yd edge vs Wolfpack.RATING: CLEMSON 88


TCU 45 - Stanford 13 - (7:00 -- Line opened at TCU minus 13?, & is now minus 12?. In '05 & '06, the Frogs
were one of the best propositions in college ball, with their near weekly routs. But a year ago, it took them 9 games to approach their recent profitable status. So note their current 5-1 spread run, with their only miss by just 1 pt. This season, they have a highly impressive 49-19 FD edge & that includes a 20-9 edge over always dangerous NewMexico. The Cards have had their moments, to be sure, including their epic upset of USC LY, & have a solid run "D", but note that they have been outscored by 60 pts in their last 3 RGs. RATING: TCU 88


FRESNO STATE 35 - Wisconsin 20 - (10:30 - ABC) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2, & is now minus 1?. As you know, we had the Bulldogs in their opening week tussle with Rutgers, & did not like what we were witnessing in the first half, when they were badly outplayed, but managed to escape with a 0-0 tie at intermission. And then they did what we expected, with a 24-7 win, behind the running of Matthews (163 yds & 3 TDs), & the passing of Brandstater. Are now on a 7-2 ATS run, covering their last 2 by 36 pts. The 10th ranked Badgers came from 404 RYs to 158 in a week, & have allowed >30 pts in their last 4 RGs. RATING: FRESNO STATE 88

 

[the duke]

Ethan Law

Virginia +11.0 vs 164 Connecticut

The Virginia Cavaliers (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS) travel to Storrs, Connecticut this week to play the UConn Huskies (2-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) in a rematch of a 17-16 Cavs win last year. Uconn comes in off a scintillating 12-9 overtime win over a very bad Temple team. I hope you are hearing the sarcasm in that last sentence, because except for the fact that it was a close game, it was anything but an exciting game. The reason Mainly because neither team did anything offensively all day, and the scoring was limited to 4 field goals in regulation. The entire 2nd half was played in a downpour, so that also had a lot to do with it. In week 1 the Huskies won easily against Div 1-AA Hofstra 35-3. Dominating Hofstra was expected, but things did not go as smoothly as hoped. Senior quarterback Tyler Lorenzen was out of sync with his receivers all day long, and the offense flourished mainly because of 218 rushing yards. Lorenzen threw 3 interceptions that day, and another 2 last week, leaving the Huskie coaches more than a little worried entering this game. That?s not very good news when your match-up against Virginia's head coach Al Groh who is well known as a defensive guru in coaching circles, and one who id eager to erase their embarrassing defeat last weekend against the Powerful USC offense. Indeed, if the UConn offensive attack cannot find some semblance of balance, they will struggle mightily to move the ball against the best defense they have faced yet this year. It is a good bet that Virginia will brace themselves against the run, forcing the Huskies into long passing situations. Unless Lorenzen gets himself untracked, the Uconn offense seems destined for another low scoring defensive battle this week. Therein lies the entire premise for this play. How can a team struggling on offense sustain enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread? The Cavaliers have enough talent in the front seven, namely linebackers Antonio Appleby, Clint Sintim, and Jon Copper, to stack the line of scrimmage and force Husky Tyler Lorenzen to beat them. Head coach Randy Edsall told the media this week that fans need to stop blaming the offensive coordinator for the vanilla play calling and instead blame him (Edsall). The argument is that the coaching staff cannot be blamed for Connecticut?s lack of confidence throwing the ball since handing the ball off to junior running back Donald Brown has been all that has worked so far. Lorenzen's zero touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 2 games against inferior competition is a clear indicator of how badly they have struggled.

Last year's 17-16 Virginia win over the Huskies was an ugly game, and this year's looks to play out very similarly. Neither team has much going for it offensively, so asking either side to lay double digits in this type of game is a stretch, to say the least. Departed Virginia qquarterback Jameel Sewell had an awful game in last year?s contest, yet the Virginia was still able to outlast Uconn that day 17-16. I bring this up only because of the announcement Wednesday night that sophomore quarterback Peter Lalich will not play this weekend. The 20-year-old was arrested on an underage drinking charge July 13, and he decided to step aside till this is resolved, so that it doesn't serve as a distraction to the team. The loss of Palich does not impact my decision to play on the underdog because, simply put, he is not a difference maker offensively, and his main job was handing the ball off anyway. Virginia was able to overcome bad quarterback play last year to actually win against Uconn, and this year they need only stay within 11 points. Virginia was lambasted in their opener by maybe the best team in the country. The Trojans 52-7 win is forgivable. Following it up with an unimpressive win against Richmond last week is understandable considering the off-season focus by the team and coaching staff, pointing towards the USC game. Richmond was very excited to play an instate BCS school and the Cavaliers were licking their wounds from an embarrassing blowout. The Virginia defense did hold the Spiders to 19 yards rushing, and that run defense is the unit we are banking on to provide the impetus to keep this game close. UConn is more experienced than Virginia (with 10 starters back on offense and 8 on defense), but they do not have superior athletes in the trenches to overpower the Cavaliers on the ground, as they did against Temple and Hofstra. Uconn has lost their last 6 contests facing ACC opponents, and that streak would be longer if not for them squeaking by perennial ACC doormat Duke 22-20 as 15 point favorites in 2004. We can also take confidence in the fact that the Big East Conference as a whole has struggled out of conference early on this year. The Big East is in fact a perfect 0-10 ATS so far this year in non-conf games! Oh boy! Believe me, the ACC is not much better, but playing Virginia is a step up in competition after Hofstra and Temple (who play no better than 1-AA level either). I would have recommend a play on the under if not for the ultra-low number Vegas has posted on this game. Instead we will take the substantial points and rely on good old fashioned defense to keep this one close, and pray to the football gods that Virginia is able to muster 10-14 points. Rough Rough!

Verdict: Connecticut 17, Virginia 14

PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON VIRGINIA +11

Other Plays

2% Maryland +15.5

2% Washington +21

 

[the duke]

Comps


Alex Smart

Maryland +15.0

Sat Sep 13 '08 12:00pm et
The Maryland Terrapins enter into this home game as two touch down underdogs to the California Bears. The game has steamed up from an opening line of -11.5, thanks to over whelming amount of public money and a few whales rolling in on the side the the away team.

The Bears thanks to back to back wins, against Washington State and Michigan State, behind an offense that scored a combined 102 points, look like an obvious square choice to cruise to another one sided victory, against a Maryland program that has has come out of the gate slowly.

The Terrapins used very little effort, doing just enough to get a 14-7 win against Delaware in their opening contest, before putting forward a unmotivated performance against Sun Belt opponent Middle Tennessee State last week, suffering a 21-14 road set back.

I know the Terps looked bad last week, but Im betting they were looking ahead to this game and probably over looking and under estimating their opposition.

With that said, it must be noted that Maryland is a much stronger team than many may think, as they have 9 returning starters back on offense, and also have a viable rushing attack behind the legs of DaRel Scott(320 Yds), who currently ranks 4th in the nation.
With that said, I expect the Terps will use their ground attack a lot today, in an attempt to slow this game down. On the defensive side of the ball, the Terps are a formidable foe, and were ranked 24th in points allowed last season. Maryland showed how staunch they can be, when they held their first opponent Delaware scoreless for 55 minutes, before falling asleep at the wheel last week. I expect they will be wide awake this time around and provide California's explosive offense with a very stiff test.

Final notes & Key Trends: California is just 10-22 ATS L/32 games as road favorites.

Projected Score: California 24 Maryland 21



James Patrick Sports

Navy vs. Duke 12:00 noon est.
Our complimentary selection in Saturday?s College Football action is #106 the Duke Blue Devils. The Blue Devils are the favorite in a game for the first time since 2005 and their improvement under new Head Coach Davis Cutcliffe has the odds makers attention as well as ours.



Bryan Leonard

12PM Eastern

Navy at Duke
The Midshipmen have taken a step back as head coach Johnson departed to Georgia Tech. Under first year head coach Ken Niumatalolo Navy dropped their first FBS game last week at Ball State. They had no answer for QB Davis and the passing game of the Cardinals and we can see a repeat here. Last season Duke QB Lewis lit up this Navy defense for 428 yards through the air. After permitting 326 passing yards last week it's clear this Midshipmen defense is outclassed in the passing game.
Duke easily covered this matchup a year ago and with the coaching changes the edge clearly favors the host. While Navy lost one of the top young coaches in college football the Blue Devils finally have a leader with quality experience. Former Mississippi coach and Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe has taken over and changed the losing Duke attitude of the past. They beat a pretty good FCS team in James Madison 31-7 to open the season. Last week they held a 28 to 14 first down edge, 472 to 328 yardage edge and almost a 2 to 1 time of possession edge over Northwestern in a disappointing 24-20 loss. The winning TD was called back by a holding call as the game winded down.
Duke clearly has developed a new attitude with the coaching change and they have no look ahead with a bye next week. Navy on the other hand has a triple revenge meeting with a suddenly very beatable Rutgers team on deck. We backed the Blue Devils last week as a team on the rise and we come right back with the better team in a win situation.
PLAY DUKE




BRAD DIAMOND

Play on: Notre Dame+ over Michigan
Not afraid to back steaming Irish who will come in flying Saturday
to avenge a 38-0 loss to the Wolves last year. If Charlie Weis does
not pull the tricker this Saturday, the boos will come down again
echoing overrated as his coaching star begins deflate in South Bend.



Tom Stryker

#107 RICE (+) over Vanderbilt at 7 PM EST

If you?re going to invest in a favorite coming off back-to-back straight up underdog wins including a victory over a conference foe last, you better have a darn good reason. According to my college football database, teams in this exact situation are a poor pointspread play notching a lame 47-77-2 ATS record. Vanderbilt enters this contest off pooch wins over Miami Ohio and South Carolina and the Commodores are locked into this play against set.


This unique situation actually gets worse if our play against side knocked off their conference foe by a touchdown or more. In this tightener, our system dips to a jaw-dropping 21-41-2 ATS set. The ?Dores beat the Gamecocks by the final of 24-17 and they?re locked into this wallet-burner as well.


Rice enters this non-conference affair off a pair of impressive performances too. The Owls opened up 2008 by clocking SMU 56-27 and then strolled into Memphis and shocked the Tigers 42-35. Those two wins automatically place Rice in a profitable set. Dating back to 1985, the Owls have cashed 16 of their last 21 games when priced as a dog coming off two or more straight up wins including 15 of their last 17 provided they tackled a conference foe last.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Matt Fargo

NCAA-F | Sep 13
SMU vs. Texas Tech

SMU +36?-110

This line is inflated for no real reason. Texas Tech may be 2-0 but the wins came against Eastern Washington and Nevada and the win against the Wolf Pack was very misleading. The Red Raiders may have won by 16 points but they were outgained 488-421 and they lost the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes. Texas Tech got a questionable call on a touchdown that was instead ruled a fumble and it also returned a punt 86 yards for a score.

SMU struggled in its opener against Rice in its first game in the new June Jones offense. The Mustangs won on Saturday against Texas St. and even though it was not a good team and an impressive win, it gave them an extra game to get the systems going and if for nothing else, provided some great confidence. SMU put up 431 total yards and even though the defense did not play good but in a game like this with a line like this, the offense won?t need much for the cover.

Looking at Texas Tech message boards and the talk is about how many points the offense is going to score and how much this team is going to win by. I love seeing stuff like that. This offense has the potential to be one of the best around but the points aren?t coming. Prior to Nevada, the Red Raiders came off a crushing win over Eastern Washington as they amassed 639 yards of total offense. However, this game was very much in doubt entering the fourth quarter as the Red Raiders were only up by 11 points.

Back to the Mustangs offense. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell had quite a game, completing 24-of-37 pass attempts for 370 yards and five touchdowns against Texas St. SMU?s five touchdown passes marked the first time the Mustangs have had that many since that Sam Houston State game in 2006. While they have had two games to get things clicking, the other side of the ball should help them out as well.

After two weeks, the Red Raiders rank a 95th in the total defense and while they have stopped teams from the big scoring, they are giving up chunks of yards and a Jones-made offense can take advantage. This game has the makings of a shootout and with this line we are getting, Texas Tech can put up points in the 60?s and the Mustangs can still cover rather comfortably. A win here is unlikely and that is something we normally look at when grabbing the underdog but a dog like this has tremendous value.

Play SMU Mustangs 1.5 Units



Jeff Alexander

NCAA-F | Sep 13
Wisconsin vs. Fresno State

Wisconsin -1-119

1 Unit PLAY on Wisconsin -1
This game will be no walk in the park for the Badgers against a very good Fresno State team, but I like Wisconsin's ability to control the football, and therefore the clock, to be the difference this week. Fresno State is 0-8 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs have had almost two weeks to prepare for the Badgers, having not played since beating Rutgers on September 1, but I think the long layoff will have the Bulldogs looking a little rusty against a very physical football team that will be looking to hit them in the mouth around every corner. The Bulldogs are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week, and 3-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Badgers.


Jimmy Boyd

NCAA-F | Sep 13
Oregon vs. Purdue

Oregon -7-109

1 Unit PLAY on Oregon Ducks -7
Oregon may have lost its starting backfield from a season ago (Dixon and Stewart), but the offense is showing no signs of slowing down. We'll waste no time laying a touchdown against a Purdue team which we have finishing in the bottom four in the Big Ten against an Oregon team which should finish second or third in the Pac-10. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons, 11-3 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons, and 31-13 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The Ducks are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Big Ten. Take Oregon.


Jack Jones

NCAA-F | Sep 13
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Longhorns

Arkansas Razorbacks +24 -105

We think that the spread is just way too high on this game, as Arkansas comes in at 2-0. Sure, the Razorbacks have played two close games against two lesser opponents, but Bobby Petrino is instilling a winning attitude in his players. They haven't turned the ball over too many times and are averaging 6.8 yards per play while holding opponents to 4.4. Texas has beat up on Florida Atlantic and UTEP, but those teams don't have the same talent as the Razorbacks, so we will play Arkansas for our one unit free pick for Saturday.



Dave Price

NCAA-F | Sep 13
Rice vs. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt -7-106

1 Unit PLAY on Vandy -7
I like Vandy to ride its momentum after a big win over South Carolina to another big victory this week. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Vandy) - off an upset win as a home underdog are an impressive 46-18 ATS since 1992. The Commodores are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games in September while the Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Lay the points

 

[the duke]

comps


Terron Chapman

Ohio State vs. USC (NCAAF) - Sep 13, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 11/-101

Ohio State

I know most are asking themselves are the Trojans that good? Or are the Buckeyes that bad? In my opinion the answer to both questions is no. The Men of Troy came out like gangbusters in their opener against Virginia. They ran the Wahoo?s off the field 52-7, covering the number easily as 21 point chalk. However, the Trojans haven?t played a game since that contest which was two weeks ago.

In that time they?ve heard from any and everybody how good they are. As time goes on most will come to know what some of us already know and that?s the University of Virginia is an awful team that was beat before the Trojans plane landed. Before the season started there?s no way the Trojans would have been a double-digit favorite over the Buckeyes. The Trojans opened as a touchdown favorite before it was steamed to where it now sits at USC (-11) with the line heading in one direction. The question of will he or won?t he, regarding Chris ?Beanie? Wells and his toe has been the hot topic heading into this game. But whether or not Wells plays, I give the Buckeyes a better shot than most at winning this game SU and definitely covering the number.

The Buckeyes will bring a talented defense with them to Los Angeles that, despite a subpar performance in their last outing should be ready on Saturday. Yes, I know how speed has killed the Buckeyes in past match ups, more notably their last two BCS appearances. But I expect a solid effort from a defense that finished last season ranked #1 in the country and returns nine starters to that side of the ball. Pete Carroll is an excellent coach that has assembled a talent laden squad. But one should not forget that Jim Tressel is a pretty good coach in his own right. I expect Tressel to have the Buckeyes prepared and to run the ball on offense with or without Wells and rely on his defense and field position. Don?t expect the Trojans to be as sharp as they were to begin the game against the Cavaliers. The layoff will play a part and don?t expect the Buckeyes to be as bad as they were last week against Ohio. They appeared to be looking ahead to this match up and for that Tressel took the blame. This will be a competitive game that should be decided in the fourth quarter. If so, it will be even harder for the Men of Troy to cover the double-digit chalk. Play on the Ohio St. Buckeyes for 3 units. Good luck to all. Note: You may want to wait closer to game time as this line appers to be heading nowhere but up.



Craig Trapp

UCLA vs. BYU (NCAAF) - Sep 13, 2008 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -8/-102

BYU

BYU and UCLA will play for third time in less than a year. BYU will sweep them 3-0 after saturdays blowout win. BYU won on a blocked extra point at Washington after playing very poorly most of the game. UCLA is coming off a late comeback upset win over TENN at home in there opener. Tennessee is a very flawed football team right now look for them to come back to earth and lay an egg here. Love BYU to win by around 17-20 pts here. SCORE BYU 37 - UCLA 17



Sean Higgs

UAB vs. Tennessee U (NCAAF) - Sep 13, 2008 12:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -30.5/-108

Tennessee U

FREE MONEY today to be had on the Volunteers. Vols had a long enough to stew over that bad loss to UCLA. In comes the Blazers of UAB to be bull-dozed in front of 100,000 + fans looking for justice. With Florida on tap, Tennessee must work the kinks out of its offense so expect them to score points. The defense will put their foot the neck of the Blazer "O" and will be looking for a shut out.


Jimmy Moore

Sport: College Football
Game: Michigan @ Notre Dame
Date/Time: 9/13/2008 3:30PM EST

Pick: UNDER 37

These two teams may have the worst offenses of all the teams in the BCS conferences. Michigan is trying to learn a new offensive scheme and they don't have any experience at QB. Notre Dame looks to have taken up this season where they left off last year with a completely inept offense. Both teams have reasonably good defenses. A great combination for an under.



Golden Contender

Sport: College Football
Game: stanford-tcu
Date/Time: 9/13/2008 7:00PM EST

TCU

Saturday system club play is on TCU-14, the bullfrogs apply to a sweet 83% system that goes back to 1980,regarding home favs off a win of 60 or more,if there taking on an opponent off a loss.The system is 4-2 ats s-2003 and tcu looks like they have a strong team once again this year.Im not thrilled with Stanford on the road,in this spot.This Saturdays card is packed with solid system plays two coming from an enormous 40-4 system.One is available right here on the guaranteed picks page.

 

[the duke]

Comps



Captain Morgan Sports

Notre Dame @ Michigan

Michigan's offense will score points from the spread formation versus a suspect Irish defense. The Irish had trouble against a injured SDSU defense last week, and will be facing a strong Michigan defense this week that will result in a Wolverine victory.

PLAY MICHIGAN



Robert Ferringo

Fresno State +2 over Wisconsin

The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare for this one and will be rocking in the Left Coast in one of the biggest games in their program?s history. Fresno State was very impressive against a very talented Rutgers team in the opener, and I feel like if they can stand up to the Scarlet Knights imposing offensive line ? the one that opened all the holes for 2,000-yard rusher Ray Rice last year ? they have a shot at slowing down the Badgers attack. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games and this contest reminds me of a tilt at UNLV last year in a game where an uninspired Badgers team should have lost. The Big 10 has had trouble matching up with the speed of teams that run spread offenses and I don?t expect this game to be much different. This is Allan Aldridge?s first test outside of Camp Randall and I think the home crowd will be the difference for Fresno.


Larry Ness

CFB Side

Vanderbilt -8.0 (-110) BetUS vs 107 Rice

What's going on here? Both Rice and Vandy have opened 2-0 in the '08 season. Rice ended a 45-year bowl drought in '06 but then HC Todd Graham bolted for Tulsa and the Owls fell to 3-9 in '07. As for Vandy, the 'Dores haven't been to a bowl game since 1982 and entered this year with a streak of 25 consecutive losing seasons. Rice opened the year with a 56-27 home rout of SMU and then last Saturday at Memphis, scored the game's final 22 points in a 42-35 win. Vandy opened the year with an impressive 34-13 road win at Miami-Ohio and them beat South Carolina 24-17 a week ago Thursday, the Commodores' first upset of a ranked team in Vanderbilt Stadium since September 19, 1992 (a 31-9 win over then-No. 25 Mississippi). Versatile QB Nickson has two TD passes (no INTs) plus 183 yards rushing and three more TDs. The defense has been solid, allowing just 15.0 PPG in the two wins. Rice has an explosive offense (49.0 PPG) led by QB Chase Clement, who has completed 61.7 percent for 576 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher with 167 yards (6.0 YPC) and two more TDs. The Rice 'D' leaves a lot to be desired though, allowing 31.0 PPG and 430.0 YPG (last year allowed 42.9 PPG / 510.0 YPG). It's not easy for Rice to win a way from home (needed 42 points to do so last Saturday), as in six road games last year, the Owls allowed 43.5 PPG. Vandy HC Bobby Johnson says "the ante has been raised" for his team this year and I'm calling for Vanderbilt to get its first 3-0 start since 1984 with a convincing win. Lay the points.



Johnny Detroit

CFB Side
Boise St. -17.0 (-110) vs Bowling Green

Johnny Detroit has cashed in five of six winners after an EASY winner on the OVER in the North Carolina/Rutgers game on Thursday!

After crushing Idaho State in their opener 49-7, Boise State has a week off to prepare for Bowling Green in front of the hometown faithful. The line at last check has Boise State favored by 17 in this WAC vs. MAC contest. Freshman Broncos quarterback Moore is licking his chops that stud wide out Jeremy Childs comes back after being suspend for the first game (and last year?s Bowl Game). Bowling Green in the flip side is reeling from getting rolled by Minnesota 42-17 after shocking Pittsburgh opening weekend as an outright underdog.

How tough is Boise State at home? How about winning 33 of their last 34 home games at a 73% clip against the point spread to the dismay of bookmakers everywhere. The one edge for Bowling Green is the potential to exploit the inexperience offensive line for the Broncos.


We like Boise State to score early and often, so lay the -17 before the line moves higher and you are forced to play a bad number. Boise State should handle Bowling

 

[the duke]

comps

Stephen Nover

Arizona @ New Mexico Sep 13, 2008 8:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks

Arizona -10

Arizona is a growing monster. Maybe the oddsmaker will realize that after this game, because the Wildcats are underpriced here.

Look for Arizona to bury New Mexico. The Lobos are breaking in new offensive linemen and wide receivers. Quarterback Donovan Porterie has suffered because of it. He's playing poorly and could possibly be in danger of losing his starting spot..

The Lobos scored 13 points in their first seven quarters against TCU and Texas A&M before putting up two late touchdowns when the Aggies went into a prevent defense.

New Mexico has covered only two of its past nine games. Arizona has far superior talent on both sides of the ball.

Arizona has put up 111 points in dispatching Idaho and Toldeo. The Wildcats have done it with balance, averaging better than 280 yards passing behind quarterback Willie Tuitama and 210 yards rushing. The Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense.

The Wildcats aren't going to lack for motivation either after losing as a 9 1/2-point home favorite last season to New Mexico.


Lee Kostroski

Virginia @ Connecticut Sep 13, 2008 7:30PM
SPORT: College Football Picks

Connecticut -10.5

PLAY ON Connecticut (-) vs. Virginia, 7:30 PM EST

The Huskies are the FAR superior team here and it will show on Saturday.

UVA is 1-1 on the season getting pasted 52-7 by USC and beating Richmond 16-0. Their offense has had big time trouble simply putting points on the board this year. Their offensive line is inexperienced and their QB situation is really poor right now. The starting QB for the first two games, Peter Lalich, did not make the trip to Hartford. He stayed home to take care of some legal issues. He will be replaced by Marc Verica who has NEVER thrown a pass in a collegiate game. With a semi-experienced Lalich at the helm, this team has averaged just 11.5 PPG their first two games. How will they do with Verica under center vs. a veteran a very solid UConn defense that has allowed just 12 points total in two games this season? Not good is your answer. Taking a young team on the road for the first time with a new QB is not about to be a cure for any offensive woes.

The Huskies are 2-0 after a 12-9 win at Temple last week. While that win may not look all that impressive, the fact is, the weather was horrible and neither team could get much going on offense because of that. Connecticut dominated much more than the final score indicated out gaining the Owls 379 to 298. They also held Temple to only 10 first downs and had nearly a ten minute time of possession edge. While the Huskies struggled to put points up last week in poor weather, they are very balanced with a veteran QB Tyler Lorenzen who knows how to win. He also had a very good RB to lean on as Donald Brown already has 346 yards rushing in two games this year. It won?t take much on to out score the anemic offense on the other side lines.

Virginia struggled last week with Division 1AA Richmond and led just 3-0 at the end of the third quarter. And that game was at home. Now on the road playing into an angry revenge minded team (UVA beat UConn last year 17-16) and we have the makings of a blow out. The Huskies have covered 7 of their last 8 home games and they pick up an easy win on Saturday.



K & B Sports

Ball State is 2-0 after two game of the 2008 regular season. In those games the Cardinals scored an average of 41.5 points per game while allowing an average of 18.5 points per game. Ball State is 7-3 ATS playing as a favorite in regular season games since 2006. Look for a solid performance on both sides of the ball from this team.
111. BALL STATE



Jack Reynolds

Wisconsin @ Fresno St. ( 10:00pmEST )

The Wisconsin Badgers travel West to take on the Fresno St. Bulldogs in a Non Conference Game. The Bulldogs are coming off an Upset Victory over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was helpless against the Bulldog Defense. Fresno St. is is 7-0 off a SU road Win.
They are an outstanding 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road Dog.
Fresno St. is the 10th team in the country with the most wins since 2001. Their Defense will make the difference in this match up.
Take Fresno St. Plus the points over Wisconsin.

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Sat (CFB) Navy
Sat (CFB) Notre Dame
Sat (CFB) Virginia
Sat (CFB) Ohio St

 

[the duke]

Comps

Matt Foust

Air Force +2.5 (-110)
Sat Sep 13 '08 3:30p

The Air Force Falcons will travel to Dallas this week to take on the Houston Cougars. The game has been moved to SMU?s Gerald Ford Stadium due to Hurricane Ike. We are going with the road Falcons +2.5 in this Mountain West, Conference USA clash.

Last week Air Force dominated the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie and they won the game 23-3. The Falcons held a decent Wyoming offense to just 216 total yards and they limited them to less than 23 minutes of possession time. Air Force was able to accomplish this by rushing for 261 yards on the Cowboys defense. In the season opener Air Force gained 433 rush yards (5.7 YPC) against a poor Southern Utah team and they held the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

The Cougars, unlike Air Force, are a more of a passing oriented team after losing Anthony Alridge. Last week they were able to move the ball through the air on Oklahoma State for 387 yards, but that is about all they did right. The Cowboys had their way with Houston on offense and posted 379 yards on the ground (699 total). OSU went on to win 56-37.

Air Force will not employ the same game plan that Oklahoma State did last week; they will not get in a shootout with the Cougars. They will run the ball against them and run it well. They will count on their good defensive line to stop the Houston rush and put pressure on Case Keenum when he goes to pass. In their first two games the Falcons held the ball for 76:51 while limiting opponents to 63:09. Saturday?s contest will be more of the same as the Falcons cover the +2.5.

Take Air Force +2.5


Johnny Guild

Saturday, September 13, 2008 3:30 PM EST.
(17) Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) at Syracuse Orange (0-2)
Carrier Dome - Syracuse, New York

Syracuse was trounced by Northwestern, 31-10 and last week took a 42-28 beaten against Akron. Expect to see them take another thrashing against the superior Nittany Lions. Penn State?s offense will pound Syracuse vulnerable defense, they won?t have a clue on how to stop Penn State?s offense that will pulverize the Orange with a ground assault.

Penn State Nittany Lions - 27.5


7:00 PM EST. (9) Auburn (2-0) at Mississippi State (1-1)
Auburn Tigers -10.5


8:00 PM EST. Bowling Green (1-1) at Boise State (1-0)
Boise State Broncos -17


10:00 PM EST. UNLV (1-1) at (15) Arizona State (2-0)
Arizona State Sun Devils -23


10:30 PM EST. 10) Wisconsin (2-0) at (21) Fresno State (1-0)
Fresno State Bulldogs +2