selkirk are you familiar with Noront Resouces

[LOR]

Monday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas the major Asian indices were down sharply today. The European indices are showing strength, on the rebound in commodity prices. Oil stocks and mining stocks are the biggest winning sectors in Europe this morning. The prices of oil and gold have rebounded as the $US has retreated from recent 6 month highs against the $Euro. A tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is the cause of the uptick in oil prices as it is seen as a threat to supply in the US. Many are expecting todays rise in commodity prices to be short lived because the weak economic data worldwide, has investors buying the $US as a hedge. In times of slumping economies worldwide, the focus of investors shifts from inflation stocks, such as commodities, into growth stocks such as tech, biotech. There is nothing on the economic calendar for today. The early futures are pointing to a mixed opening on the US indices. If the strength in commodity prices continues, once the North American markets open, it could be a welcome respite for the Canadian indices, at least for today.

Back in McFaulds Lake, we should be getting news from NOT today, in the form of the 43-101 from the Eagle One deposit. It is possible that NOT could ask for an extension from the exchange on the 43-101, but not likely. Today is the 45th day from when NOT released its initial resource estimate at Eagle One and exchange rules state the actual 43-101 must be released within 45 days once this happens. This should be welcome news for NOT investors as it is hoped this will put a floor under NOT's share price. It is also expected we get a update on the chrome deposit from Blackbird One to accompany the 43-101 release. A chrome update is very important to investors, as the market has been struggling to put an evaluation on this discovery. Many are suggesting the chrome discovery is worth far more, than the nickel discovery of Eagle One. Well today, perhaps we get a glimpse into what these investors have been predicting for weeks now.

Also for NOT, we could be getting assay results back from the AT-12 discovery at any time. The rumour mill is investors will be very happy with this AT-12 discovery. Apparently they are currently drilling in the centre of this anomoly and the core samples look much like the Eagle One samples. NOT's share price badly needs another discovery of high grade nickel to get investors excited about this stock again. The problem with the Eagle One discovery, is it is hard to come up with those kind of assay numbers again, as it was one of the richest pods ever discovered in the history of Canadian mining. If AT-12 can come anywhere close to the kind of numbers from Eagle One, it is hard to imagine the share price of NOT remaining at such depressed levels.

The chart of NOT is showing if we get a bounce over the 13(MA) at $2.99 with some good volume, there is lots of blue sky potential for this stock. The $3.45 level will be tough to break through, but after that, not much resistance to the 100(MA) around the $4 level. Personally I went long NOT last week and think the upside potential far out weighs the downside risk at current share prices. JMHO

FNC has investors disappointed in its share price last week. Currently the market is offering no premium to speculation stocks in the resource sector. The sell off in resource stocks is broad based and has been brutal for the share prices of the junior resource stocks. Only those stocks that come up with far above average, assay results, are getting any respect from investors. Even they are selling off fast after the initial enthusiasm wanes. However it is hard to imagine that investors won't be falling all over themselves to get in, at some point with FNC. My theory is, that if FNC can come up with assay results anything close to the Eagle One discovery, the share price will be rewarded and new 52 week highs is probable. A significant discovery by FNC would put the issue of tonnage for the Eagle One deposit, to bed once and for all. NOT needs a hit by FNC as much as FNC does itself.

MTX/WSR's assay results have gone past the point of being ridiculous. It has now been over 2 months since WSR announced they hit a huge intersect of 131.9 M of Semi-Massive to Near-Massive Sulphides. The visuals stated there was copper and other base metals evident in the core samples. It is hard to imagine why it would take over 2 months to get assay results from these core samples. It took PRB only 3 weeks to get assay results. Perhaps the assay results were less than stellar and WSR is waiting for further assays from their drilling program? What ever the reason for the delay, investors are slowly throwing in the towel and the share price is taking a big hit because of it. If it takes over 2 months for the intial results from the discovery holes, just imagine the wait from future drilling on this anomoly. Something is not right here and my bet is the assay results aren't any where near as good as initially predicted. JMHO

BMK's share price is currently at bargain basement levels. BMK started drilling on 5 different anomoly targets on July 11th. If this drilling program is anything like their last one, we should be hearing rumours shortly. A halt is possible it they pull up anything of significance in any of their core samples. I have been watching this stock closely for any early signs. A volume spike, with a share price pop, would be the 1st indication we are on the verge of getting news, or the rumours are predicting a hit with the drill bit. The risk/reward looks tempting at current share price levels.

There is not much else happening in McFaulds Lake currently. All eyes are on NOT and FNC to lead the rest of the stocks. The entire basket of McFaulds stocks badly need a discovery of significance to be announced by one of these stocks, to get investors attention again. Perhaps today is the day.

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.





Al

 

[LOR]

Here's a post from AB

Plain English 43-101 Highlights

Posted by: rek on August 18, 2008 10:12PM

I've just finished reading the entire 43101 report, and here are the plain English highlights about Noront's potential that struck me:
"The authors feel that the large budget [$12 million] is warranted, given the the project is now entering a predevelopment stage..." page iv.
"Grades at Noront's Blackbird One compare favourably with those at the world's most important chromite producers." page 26.
[Blackbird One Deposit has the potential] "for a multimillion ton resource..." page 26.
"There is significant potential for the discovery of another Eagle One-type deposit as the Eagle Two mineralization is traced westward..." p. 30.
"Noront's land position in the 'Ring of Fire' includes the Double Eagle Property, 11 additional joint ventures..., and 3 floating blocks of claims... It is the author's opinion that this new metal district, the currently known deposits in the Ring of Fire, and Noront's vast land position make the adjacent properties a significant upside to the Double Eagle Property." page 44.
"Eagle One formed in a conduit which is likely continuous over [kilometres]." page 56.
"For... Eagle One... complete a preliminary economic assessment (scoping study)." page 56.
"For... Eagle Two and Blackbird One... NI 43-101 compliant resource estimates..." page 56.
"For.. Blackbird Two... $1,050,000 [for continued exploration].
"For AT12... $875,000 [for continued exploration].
[Plus money for a better airstrip and exploring other anomalies.]
Look's like a Noront pumper's list, but it's not -- it's the real thing.
So far, so good...
Rekjr

 

[LOR]

Post from TC

the deep south

If the intrusion is accepted to be a conduit then it must be continuous over considerable distances
likely measurable in kilometres. Since diamond drilling has shown that it is surrounded on all
sides by older felsic intrusive rocks at surface, logic dictates that it must continue at depth. The
prospects for continued extension of the mineralized body to depth are excellent, as long as it is
not lost in a fault zone. In this regard it is encouraging to note that although the western margin
has been extensively modified by faulting, it is fundamentally an intrusive contact that is
preserved in situ. There is thus no immediate indication of a structural termination of the
mineralization.

The origins of the sulphides are slightly problematic. It is generally accepted that in order to
form a mass of immiscible sulphide liquid on the scale observed at the Eagle One Deposit, a
mafic or ultramafic magma must become contaminated by sulphide-rich crustal rock. At its
present level of exposure the mineralized intrusion is entirely surrounded by sulphur-poor felsic
intrusive rocks, leaving the origin of the required sulphide in doubt. Mungall suggests that the
presence of abundant magnetite-rich xenoliths in the intrusion records a previous episode of
assimilation of iron formation, which has added sufficient sulphide to the magma to induce
sulphide liquid saturation. The conduit has carried the slurry of sulphide droplets and small
xenoliths to their current location, requiring transport over considerable distances. This in turn
suggests that the Eagle One Deposit resides in a large magmatic system with lateral extents at
least as great as the distance to this same iron formation, which may be represented by the very
prominent magnetic lineament to the south of the deposit.

 

[LOR]

Tuesday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas the major Asian indices fell to two-year lows overnight on fears the US government will have to bail out the top mortgage finance companies, further destabilising the financial sector. In Europe the major indices are also falling off sharply, after getting a warning from the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund that the worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come. Falling commodity prices and weakness in the financial sector is causing a broad based equity sell-off. It is a busy day on the economic calendar with PPI, Core PPI, Building Permits and Housing Start numbers at 8:30 am. These numbers are market movers as they will provide an indication of coming inflationary pressures at a time of deflationary pressures in the financial sector. The early futures are pointing to a sharply lower opening for the US indices. Weaker commodity prices do not bode well for the Canadian indices today however. The markets are so volatile right now, commodity prices could turn around at the drop of a hat.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT finally released their 43-101 yesterday afternoon. A very complicated document that goes into great detail to try and explain not only the Eagle One deposit but the geology of the entire Ring of Fire. Investors also got a glimpse into the importance of the chrome discoveries. For the 1st time it was explained to investors how the chrome discovery is a world class discovery of significance. It will be interesting to see what kind of evaluation the market will give to NOT's market cap, after reading this report. Obviously NOT has discovered chrome worth well over the $15 billion prediction that Nemis had whispered to investors at an earlier date. You can slice this however you want, but putting a value on the chrome they have discovered so far, could easily be worth in the $40 to $50 billion range. NOT also announced a further $12 million expansion to their exploration budget to follow up what they have discovered so far.

After reading the 43-101, it is noted that NOT is no longer just an exploration stock. They are on the verge of taking this project to the next level. They have now entered the predevelopement stage and will be spending millions of dollars to upgrade infrastructure and do further advanced studies. I would not be surprised to see NOT bring in a major, to take a percentage stake in the company in the very near future. NOT has obviously surrounded itself with an excellent team in the last several months, but the kind of expertise required to take this project to the next level, looks to me, to be in need of some outside help.

Currently we are in the midst of a meltdown in the worlds equity markets and resource stocks are getting very little respect from investors. However, if ever a exploration mining stock, deserved a billion dollar market cap, NOT would be at the top of my list. Once the equity markets stabilize and return to some degree of normalcy, I will be shocked if NOT's market cap doesn't receive a floor under its share price somewhere in the $7 to $10 per share range. In fact it could be argued, that NOT deserves a much higher share price than that. At a current share price of $2.63, I think NOT is one of the most undervalued stocks listed on the Canadian indices. JMHO

After reading NOT's 43-101, is there anyone who thinks that McFaulds Lake, will not be turned into one of the major mining camps in Canada? I may have a biased outlook, but it is my belief that McFaulds Lake is a world-class discovery !!!

FNC's share price had a major meltdown yesterday. Many investors in this stock sit stunned, not knowing if there is a leak from the drilling program, or if this is just a flush to get rid of the weak hands. Mining stocks in general are suffering from a lack of investor enthusiasm. The volumes on most junior resource stocks have reached intolerable levels. There is just a total lack of buyers in the current market. The summer months are often a time of weak share prices for junior mining stocks, but none in recent memory are as bad as this year. Hopefully we can limp through the rest of August and return to some degree of normalcy in September.

The low volume of shares traded on FNC, offer the perfect opportunity for the bigger market players to manipulate FNC's share price. They pull all bids and then put some selling pressure on the stock. The lack of bids, drives the share price down, the lower the share price goes, retail investors start to panic. The panic by retail investors, has them willing to salvage whats left of their investment and they sell off their shares into the willing bids of the investment houses at severely depressed share prices. This is called the "flush", it often occurs just before a stock is going to release news. The doubt is there in investors mindsets, could this be bad news coming, has something gone terribly wrong with the drill program, is this a leak from the drilling crew, are they pulling up blanks? All these things are running through the minds of the retail investors as they puke their shares up. This gives the market pro's the perfect opportunity to cover their shorts and fleece the retail investors. Yet time after time, the retail guys fall for this strategy by the pro's. Once all the weak hands have been shaken out by the pro's, they turn the share price around and the same guys who where in panic mode earlier, end up buying back their shares at elevated share prices. The pro's pocket their winnings and all things return to normalcy.

I could be dead wrong, but I doubt yesterdays share price swoon, had nothing to do with what FNC is finding in their current drill program. In fact it was probably an excellent opportunity for savvy investors to pick up some very cheap shares of FNC. The old market adage, you should be buying when every one around you is selling, most likely rings true in this instance. Once too many retail investors show up looking to buy at bargain prices, the gig is up for the pro's. The flush is over, the pro's move on to the next flock of sheep to shear. JMHO

It will be very interesting to see what happens to FNC's share price today. Perhaps it is time I get my feet wet and try to snap up a few shares on the cheap. Falling knife stocks are always hard to play, often it is best to try and wait for them to bottom out and buy them when they are on their way back up. I still believe that FNC has a good chance to come up with a discovery of significance with their current drill program. The risk/reward just got a whole lot better for those that exercised some patience. The one big problem for FNC share holders is Peter Smith is not a promoter type. If he was, a well timed halt, then a visual report, could put a stop to the kind of market manipulation, we observed with FNC yesterday. Come on Peter Smith, give your shareholders some support and release a visual report after each hole is completed on this drill program.

Investing in McFaulds Lake stocks is certainly hard on ones stomach these days. Junior resource stocks may be out of vogue right now, but this will pass. Just remember the reason you invested in these stocks in the first place. Has anything really changed, other than investor sentiment?


Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.





Al

 

[LOR]

Wed morning thoughts FROM tc

Good morning. Overseas on the Asian indices we have the Nikkei basically flat, but the Hang Seng was up 2% on hopes Beijing will introduce a stimulus package to jump-start growth. In Europe the major indices are all up as commodity-related stocks have bounced back on renewed strength in oil and metal prices. Tech stocks have also got a boost from Hewlett-Packard's street beating results, after the market closed in the US yesterday. Banking stocks are still the biggest drag on equity markets worldwide. Many economists are predicting the financial crisis is at about the halfway point and the worst is yet to come. Avoiding stocks in the financial sector is still recommended. On the economic calendar today, all eyes will be on the Crude Inventories numbers at 10:35 am. The early futures numbers are pointing to a positive opening on the US indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake, investors spent the day trying to decipher all the information contained in NOT's 43-101, which was released Monday afternoon. NOT's share price was basically flat all day, with below average volume once again. I'm not sure what investors are missing in that 43-101, but it all looked like fantastic news to me. We finally have a detailed look at just how important NOT's chrome discovery really is. The combination of low volumes, because of the summer seasonality factor and a weak market for resource stocks in general, obviously came into play with NOT's share price, yesterday. At some point investors will wake up and realize NOT is sitting on billions of dollars worth of mineable ore in McFaulds Lake. I looked at yesterday, as an opportunity to add NOT at bargain prices and plan to add again today. Usually I don't like buying stocks trading under their 13(MA) but opportunity only knocks every so often. After reading NOT's 43-101, it is my opinion that NOT is severely undervalued at current share price levels. However, it should be noted, NOT is only worth what the market is willing to pay for it and as of yesterday, that price was $2.62 at the close.

Looking at the chart of NOT, it appears we should have good support at the $2.50 level, but heavy resistance at the $2.90 level, at the 13(MA). NOT needs a clean break of the 13(MA), with some additional volume to get its share price back in an uptrend. It looks oversold, but volume will be the determining factor is this stock is going to right itself any time soon. NOT hasn't closed above its 50(MA) since early April. If/when NOT does close above its 50(MA), that will be the time to back up the truck and play the stock with an eye to keeping a long term position. Until then, investors are taking on a lot of risk. Personally I will only take on a 1/2 load of NOT, until I see it close atop the $3.08 level, which is it's 50(MA). The idea being, once you are trading over the 50(MA) it becomes decent support and you have a point to set your stop losses in case of a share price collapse. Many of us believe NOT is very undervalued at current share prices, but it matters not what we think. The market is never wrong, because whatever it is willing to pay for a stock, is all the stock is actually worth. Some permabull investors have a hard time grasping this concept, however, reality often sucks.

On deck for NOT, we are now waiting for news from the AT-12 discovery. A visual update or actual assay results, should get investors attention and provide the needed volume to take NOT's share price up, from oversold levels. The 4 little words, "Eagle three has landed", should provide the push to take the share price up over the 50(MA) and put a floor under NOT's share price.

Any news that a major is willing to take a % stake in NOT, would also do wonders for NOT's share price. This would do two things for NOT, firstly it would give us a floor price for actual value of NOT and secondly it would put additional funds in NOT's bank account. The additional funds would stop any manipulative actions from the market, because at this point, NOT would have no need for any future financing, for years down the road. Also having a major on board would give investors the knowledge that NOT would have the expertise on board, to take the stock to the next level. NOT is in a transition period right now, on one hand it is still an exploration stock, on the other hand, NOT is at the stage where it needs to start putting costly infrastructure additions in place. Airports, permanent buildings and roads don't come cheap in remote areas like McFaulds Lake. However, it is now obvious, these infrastructure additions are needed, if NOT wants to take this project to the next level. NOT's bank account may appear bloated right now, but once they start spending millions of dollars on things other than exploration, it won't take long to burn through this cash. JMHO

FNC shareholders suffered through a gut wrenching share price flush yesterday. Hopefully this afforded the shorts the opportunity to cover their positions and we now have, this group of cut throat manipulators behind us. There is a tasty down gap on FNC's chart from the $1.85 level that would be nice to see filled. Lots of rumours coming from FNC's drilling program, however they are just that, rumours. We will wait until an official news release comes from Peter Smith before wasting our time with these rumours. Some will most likely be true, but countless others won't. FNC's share price will do the talking over the next couple of weeks. I am sure there will be numerous ups and downs and the share price will be volatile, until we get actual news from FNC. Some investors were complaining last week they wanted to see volume and share price volatility from FNC, they sure got what they were wishing for yesterday. I'm not so sure it was in the direction they were hoping for however.

I took a position in FNC yesterday. I'm hoping that the share price flush, we were predicting, is now behind us. It was certainly hard on the nerves, for those investors who have been long, for months on FNC, waiting for this drill program to begin. I am still praying my prediction that the FNC story, will be Canada's top mining story for 2008 comes to fruition. With only 27.5 million o/s shares, the FNC story could turn out to be a monster, if an announcement of a nickel discovery, ever comes into play. This is a total lottery ticket for investors. The risk is the share price will totally collapse if they come up empty handed. However, the reward is, we could see a multi-bagger in the share price if they hit. My best guess on how to play this stock, is to take some money off the table if the share price affords you the opportunity. Get your cost per share as low as possible, to reduce some of the risks with this play. Lottery ticket stocks are fun when you win, but cause an awful lot of pain when they miss. JMHO

Yesterday, after the market closed we received visual results from the SPQ/KWG/FWR JV'ed property. They intersected 45.6m of massive chromite. This discovery is 5km NE of NOT's Blackbird One and Two chromite discoveries, indicating just how huge this discovery has the potential to be. Once the dots are connected these chromite discoveries have the potential to be world class in size. The grades of the chrome discovered so far, are above average and now that these companies are starting to connect the discoveries, they have the potential to be worth billions of dollars. It is becoming increasingly evident that at some point the chrome will be mined from the McFaulds Lake area. Hopefully the shares prices from some of these smaller area play stocks respond. It saddens me when I think of the possibilities, if only SPQ had done the reverse split when they had the opportunity. The huge o/s share base of these stocks will keep many investors from playing them. However no use looking at what could of been, hopefully this adds multiples to the market caps, of these three stocks.

FWR, not only has yesterdays discovery to add to their arsenal, they also have numerous other irons in the fire. The AT-12 nickel discovery, announced by NOT, is right on FWR's door step. FWR also has a 100% owned anomoly that has FWR's management excited. The recent VTEM surveys are supposedly pointing to this anomoly having vast potential. Last I heard was drilling is expected to commence sometime around the middle of Sept on this anomoly. The only drawback to FWR currently is they have over 15 million PP shares that are now free trading. Half are at the $.30 level and the rest are from $.35, it will take time to eat through these PP shares, but at some point it will happen. FWR will blast off to new 52 week highs, if they keep coming up with the goods from these properties. Lots of potential with FWR for shareholders, but it is going to require some patience.

As we can see things are developing at a fast pace in McFaulds Lake. So many companies are currently drilling or plan to do so shortly. These companies are spending millions of dollars on these various drill programs. There is a reason for all this activity, these companies believe McFaulds Lake has vast potential. Now we just need to get investors interested in these plays again. My bet is this is about to happen shortly. Currently we are talking about billions of dollars worth of mineable ore that already has been discovered. This ore isn't going anywhere and these companies just keep adding to the valuation of McFaulds Lake. Anyone who can't see, this is quickly turning into a world class discovery, just aren't paying attention !!! JMHO

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.



Al

 

[LOR]

Thursday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. In Asia overnight the major indices fell on concerns about the ability of the region's exporters to weather a widespread economic slowdown. The major European indices are also down sharply as the rise in oil prices has revived concerns over inflation and consumer spending. The exception being the FTSE in England as it is basically flat, due to it being a more resource based indice. The financial stocks are taking another hit on renewed credit worries. With inflation fears back, added to worries surrounding the fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and fears of additional writedowns in the financial stocks, investors are getting nervous again. On the positive side, firmer metal prices are lifting the mining stocks. On the economic calendar today we get the Initial Jobless Claims numbers at 8:30 am. Followed by the Leading Indicating numbers and the Philadelphia Fed Report manufacturing survey numbers at 10am. The early futures are pointing to a down opening for the US indices. If the commodity prices continue to rise, it may bode well for the Canadian indices for further gains.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT continues to trade in a tight range with below average volumes. The chart of NOT is showing support at the $2.55 mark and with the $2.75 level being resistance. NOT is struggling to break atop its 13(MA) at $2.85 because of low volumes of shares traded. Without news from the visual front or actual assays I expect the low volumes to continue and remain stuck in this tight trading range. NOT is currently trading in oversold territory, but the usual slow summertime volumes suggests this trend will continue until August is behind us. If NOT's 43-101 would of been released 6 months ago, in a period of normal volume, my opinion is, it would be trading at or near 52 week highs. However, at this time of extreme market weakness, especially for junior resource stocks, it gives us a glimpse where the floor is on NOT's share price.

It has been suggested by some investors, the reason for the delays in getting assay results back from the lab, is one, all the holidays for lab employees and the other is why release good news, when the company knows the market will just yawn anyways, because of the lack of volumes in the summer months. I suppose the seasonality factor does enter into the picture, the good news is August is almost behind us and September is usually a strong month for mining stocks. It should also be noted, it was early September last year, when news from NOT's Eagle One drilling program first hit the news wires and the stock took off from trading under a dollar and has never looked back since. It is also interesting that for only one short period of time, did NOT ever trade above the highs, the stock reached during the irrational exuberance days of last Sept. This glimpse back in time, gives us a good lesson of when not to buy a mining stock, after the initial share price spike, in the discovery process. Wait until the stock has retraced before taking a position, no matter how much you like the story. You can end up sitting for long periods of time, to ever get back to your entry level, if you buy a top in a mining stock. The term "bagholder" comes into play, if you make this mistake.

While we wait to close out the month of August and get back to some degree of normalcy, I have put together a list of the top 10 events, that should move NOT's share price in the not to distant future. 1) Now that the 43-101 from Eagle One is behind us, we can expect a listing on the TSX at any time. 2) Visual and assay results from NOT's recent AT-12 discovery. 3) The scoping study from Eagle One. 4) News that a major is willing to take a % stake in NOT, to assist in taking NOT to the next level. 5) News from FNC's drilling program. If the news is good it will add important tonnage to NOT's original Eagle One nickel discovery, putting an end to the viability of creating a mine discussion. 6) News from Windfall, as the ramp for mining this important gold discovery, nears completion. 7) Blackbird One and Two resource estimates. 8) Assay news from the MTX/WSR discovery. 9) Visual and assay news from the border drilling with FNC. 10) News from the drilling programs of the numerous JV'ed properties in the ROF.

FNC continued to show strength yesterday after the share price flush on Tuesday. We even had a 380,000 share cross yesterday. As the drilling proceeds, FNC's share price should become volatile on every little rumour. The shorts have a way of getting supposed bad news to the market, so they can cover. It becomes a dirty game and often the rumours have no basis in fact, yet we retail guys/gals panic and sell our shares off to these vultures. I am always leery of rumours when there are lots of shorts on a company that has a drill program underway. The listed shorts on FNC as of August 15th was 321,678, so be careful of the rumours is my thoughts on this. It is probable that many of the shorts covered on the flush on Tuesday. The one thing odd about these shorts on FNC, is what do they know that us retail players don't know? And how is it possible that they can find out any bad news before the rest of us find out? I suppose it is easy to know some of this bad news, when you create the rumour yourself. Stockhouse is famous for these kinds of rumours. The only reason I have mentioned this, is because I would hate to see newbee investors sell in a panic, only to find out the rumour is entirely void of any relevant fact.

MKR had news yesterday and they should be announcing a drill program any day now on their McFaulds Lake properties. With a recent bought deal financing done by Sprott, this stock has cash in hand to put a viable drilling program together. So it may be a stock you want to keep an eye on shortly. Numerous possibilities with this stock. Here is a link to the little blurb I put together on MKR last night.

http://tradingchief.com/en/mboard.php?page=read&pid=5463

The visual results from the JV of SPQ/KWG/FWR certainly didn't make a splash with investors yesterday. The market just yawned from these visuals. I suppose it just shows you the sad state of junior resource stocks currently. Visuals are not enough to move the share prices, in this market environment. The market wants actual assay results and they better be very good, because the market uses the excuse of any news to sell off stocks these days.

PRB is still not getting any love from investors after the recent sell off on bad news from its McFaulds West drill program. Investors may want to take a stab buying a few shares, if you can buy them on share price weakness. The reason being PRB may get a share price spike if FNC's drilling program comes up with a decent hit. If FNC does come through and PRB's share price spikes, I would take this as an opportunity to unload my shares and take profits. Then wait for the share price to do the slow bleed and buy at bargain prices again. It will probably be another 2 to 3 months before the new VTEM survey news is digested and ground work completed, before they resume drilling on this property. The downside risk is, if FNC misses on their drill program, you may be stuck holding this stock until they drill McFaulds West again.

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.




Al

 

[LOR]

Post from AB

just found out,...
Posted by: roos 2000 on August 21, 2008 05:43PM


not is drilling at the border with fancamp as we speak. if one of both, or both will hit, it could create a lot of excitement again in the macfaulds. it would be a great aportheoses in my opinion after having lived through that dark period just behind us, but i have to say i like drama by profession.

even with these markets, although personally i guess we have seen the bottom and we will move up quickly from here, similar to last year after the 15th of august when everything spiked 30% up within weeks, a hit should be very positive for both stocks and maybe even the entire area.

anyhow an very interesting idea not and fnc drilling side by side on their at1 and c1 targets.

not pumping, just excited. of course if fnc doesn't drill up decent results, the stock will seriously tank. don't forget we are invested in the exploration companies.

best, roos

 

[LOR]

Friday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas today, Asian stocks fell to two year lows, down for a fourth straight week. The surge in oil prices has enflamed inflation fears and the financial crisis is showing no signs of ending any time soon. The major European indices have all rebounded and turned green on strength in the energy stocks. Financial stocks have turned positive boosted by merger and acquisition activity in the sector. The FTSE could turn rather quickly as investors are keeping a close watch on the UK GDP numbers to be released shortly offering some clues on the state of the British economy. There is nothing on the economic calendar for today, however Bernacke will be giving a speech this morning talking about the credit market and the financial sector. The early futures are pointing to a positive opening for the US indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT rebounded yesterday and was up almost 7% on the day. NOT tried to break atop its 13(MA) but ended the day at $2.80 right on the 13(MA). NOT needs a clean break, at the open today, to turn it's 13(MA) from being resistance to support. NOT's volume was by far the heaviest yesterday, than it has been in the month of August. The Slow STO has turned up, off of oversold conditions and the MACD is showing signs of crossing over. We need some follow through today with additional volume and all the chart signals will point to a rally, with a trend reversal to the upside. It is possible today for NOT to break over the big resistance at $3.03 of its 50(MA). This would be a very bullish signal, since NOT hasn't had a close atop it's 50(MA) since early April.

NOT is rumoured to be back drilling on the border anomoly close to FNC's property boundary. This makes sense since FNC is currently drilling on the other side of the imaginary fence. It has long been rumoured, that the VTEM surveys, have shown this to be a high priority area to drill. From NOT's 43-101 it said the Eagle One deposit was open to the south and at depth. With the high grades of nickel and precious metals NOT has proven from past drilling in this area, if they could get this deposit extended onto FNC property, it could be deja vu from this time last year. The possibility of NOT and FNC announcing at the same time, that this anomoly deposit, is bridged from one property to the other, would open up some exciting times in McFaulds Lake again.

FNC has its investors excited again, the share price was up over 19% yesterday and the rumours are running rampant. On Tuesday there was doom and gloom as the share price was flushed down to $1, with volumes far above normal. There was a rumour that FNC had missed in its current drill program and the sell off was on. Amazingly there was over 300k of shorts on FNC and this offered them the perfect opportunity to cover at bargain basement prices. Stop losses were hit and the retail investors once again, puked up their shares to the pro's. The pro shorters must get great delight in fleecing the retail investors. A few well placed rumours here and there and retail investors line up like sheep, heading to be slaughtered. As irritating as it is to watch this, time after time, on junior mining stocks, that have just started drilling programs, it did offer the opportunity for others to pick up shares on the cheap.

On ChiefChat we did predict there would be a share price flush, but even we were amazed, to the extent of it. Congratulations to those in the LongTerm Investor Chat room who patiently waited for this flush and picked up FNC shares at bargain basement prices. Every once in awhile we do get it right. However, it is time to remember the rumours that FNC has hit on their drill program are just that, rumours. Without an official news release from FNC, don't treat these rumours as fact. Getting your cost per share down to as low as possible, certainly would take the risk out of playing FNC currently. How many times have we all, let greed, get in the way of common sense? We have all let very profitable winning situations turn into losses and kicked ourselves, for letting opportunity slip through our fingertips. No investor ever went broke, by locking in profits when the opportunity afforded itself. JMHO

We went over this yesterday but it may be worth repeating. If FNC does hit in its drill program, where can we find opportunity to cash in from other McFaulds Lake proximity plays? I think PRB could be the one stock where opportunity knocks. PRB's share price has been decimated recently because they missed on their McFaulds West drilling program. It wasn't a complete miss because they did find peridotite in over 80 metre sections. This peridotite closely resembled the host peridotite of the Eagle One nickel-copper discovery. So perhaps they were very close to finding the massive sulphides that often contain the nickel-copper mineralization. Remember, finding these sulphides is like finding a needle in a haystack, you can drill one foot away and miss the sweet spot.

So my theory goes like this. Take a position in PRB at current bargain basement share prices. If FNC hits, PRB's share price will go up, just on the proximity of this property alone. On a share price spike, sell your shares and lock in profits. Then leave PRB alone for a few weeks. After the initial euphoria wears off, PRB's share price will most likely do the slow bleed, because they have no news themselves. If you still feel the need to own PRB shares, buy them once they have bottomed again. PRB will be re-drilling this McFaulds West property again once VTEM surveys are finished and ground work is completed. There is no hurry to own this stock, for the next drill program, time is on your side. JMHO

MTX/WSR, we continue to wait for assays from this discovery. Perhaps they are waiting for market conditions to improve and plan on releasing assay results in a batch. It is hard to forget the possibilities that this play offers if the assay results are as good as many feel they will be. Remember back in June they halted these stocks and announced they had intersected 131.9 M of Semi-Massive to Near-Massive Sulphides. They also reported there was visuals of copper and other base metals, in the core samples. The good news is they have built a large drilling camp on this property and continue to drill, with two drills, going full tilt. I doubt they would of brought the 2nd drill in and continue to spend this kind of money, if they thought results would be less than stellar. Buying a core position on share price weakness may be a prudent play for those that can tolerate a high risk, high reward opportunity.

Hopefully some of the posters/readers of this board, can keep us updated on the NRN and TME drilling programs. Reports of insiders buying into these stocks has piqued my curiousity. However I only have so much time to cover these plays and can't possibly cover them all. So anyone who can keep us abreast on these stocks, please take the time to do so, it would be much appreciated.

There is lots happening in McFaulds Lake presently. Some of these drill programs have excellent possibilities to bring these plays alive again, after some very slow times during the summer months. That is all changing at a fast pace and my best guess is McFaulds Lake is back in play. Exciting times are here again !!!

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.




Al

 

[LOR]

Noront Aug 19 Presentation





http://www.norontresources.com/inves...

 

[LOR]

Monday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. On the overseas markets the major Asian indices had a strong start to the trading week. The Nikkei in Japan was up 1.68% and the Hang Seng in China had gains of 3.5%. The major European indices are lacking in leadership, as the FTSE in England, is closed for a banking holiday. The CAC 40 and the DAX in Germany are trading in slightly negative, to flat territory, on fears that the European economies are slowing, more than previously expected. On the economic calendar for today, we get the Existing Home Sales numbers at 10 am. The early futures numbers are pointing to a slightly lower opening for the US indices. The fallout of the credit crisis, continues to make investors nervous. All eyes will be on the price of oil to give the markets direction on the inflationary front.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT had its lowest volume day in the past year on Friday. There was a total lack of interest by investors heading into the weekend, as the month of August has one weekend left in it. The chart of NOT is showing it closed right on its 13(MA) of $2.78 and is within reach of its 50(MA) at $3.01, NOT is trading in a very tight range the last few weeks and shows support at $2.72 with $2.86 being resistance. NOT obviously needs news, or is in danger of breaking below support. The $2.50 mark must hold or a test of the recent lows, just over $2.00 in early July, is a distinct possibility. With so much on its plate, it would be a bitter pill to swallow, to see NOT break below support here. The weakness in NOT's share price has nothing to do with any bad news on the horizon, it is just following a weak resource stock market in general. Hopefully we get a relief rally in junior mining stocks shortly. The entire sector is way oversold and investors are selling off the very good stocks, right along with the more speculative stocks in the sector. It is very disappointing to see a stock with potentially $30 to $50 billion of mineable ore in the ground, with a market cap around the $350 million mark.

It has been suggested NOT is holding off releasing news from its AT-12 anomoly discovery, until the month of August is behind us. The summer months are often a weak time for resource stocks in general. This year much worse than most. This theory sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Why release good news into a market that just sells off good news anyways? Personally I believe NOT, is way undervalued at current share prices and have been using this time to add to my position. Once the slow month of August is behind us and vacationing investors come back into the market, it is my belief they will come looking for the bargains. To me, NOT is one of the best bargains on the TSX-v exchange at this time. JMHO

The rumour mill is working overtime with FNC and their drill program. The leaks from this much anticipated drill program is bound to happen, but I have heard the riot act has been read to the drilling team and any loose lip talk, is cause for instant dismissal. In fact, I have heard members of the crew were fired, after the 1st drill hole was leaked to the rumour mongers. The problem with rumours is probably less than half of them, have any basis in fact and most are just wishful thinking on the part of investors. What I have heard from several investors, who have taken the time to phone me or PM me, is FNC hit massive sulphides in their 2nd drill hole. I doubt FNC's share price goes through the roof on this rumour, as it is just that a rumour. Unless we get an update from Peter Smith, investors have no idea if this rumour, is based on fact or wishful thinking. We got little direction from FNC's share price on Friday, as it was just a dreadful day for volume on stocks across the board. It appeared investors were getting an early jump on the weekend, as the summer vacationing days are quickly coming to an end.

Hopefully we get some direction today, as the volume will be the clue. As in every drilling program, someone knows someone and they get a jump on the rest of us because of it. It was reported by an investor that on Thursday, Debra from FNC's office had reported that drilling was at the halfway mark. If true, FNC should have this segment of their drill program finished sometime this week, barring a breakdown from the drilling rig. I doubt we get an update from Peter Smith on visuals, until they are finished drilling. This would suggest we will probably get an update some time next week. Remember owning shares of FNC, is nothing more than owning a ticket on the lottery. If they miss, the shares are worth very little. If they hit massive sulphides with nickel mineralization evident in the core samples, expect the share price to go ballistic. With only 27.5 million o/s shares, putting a realistic $100 million market cap to FNC, would put the share value just under the $4 per share mark. Attaining a market cap of $250 million would put FNC's share price around the $9 mark. The upside potential is fantastic, but the downside risk is your investment is worthless. If ever there was a stock that could be called a lottery ticket, FNC is it. This is definitely not a stock, you would want to bet the farm on. However, I am still sticking with my prediction, that FNC will be the mining story of 2008 in Canada.

SPQ's share price is doing the slow climb after their latest visual update. It appears they have discovered another excellent intersect of chrome. In the past investors have just yawned when stocks have announced a hit with chrome. However, lately chrome is starting to slowly get some respect from investors, as they realize NOT most likely has billions of dollars worth of it, on their properties. The chance that someday we will see chrome being mined in McFaulds Lake is now a distinct possibility as the grades and tonnage are pointing to a world class discovery. Connecting the dots, we can see SPQ/KWG/FWR could possibly be sitting on billions of dollars worth of chrome, right along with NOT.

MTX/WSR are also worthy of mentioning again. That 131.9 meters of Semi-Massive to Near-Massive Sulphides, with visual sightings of copper and other base metals in the core samples, has some fantastic possibilities, IF, the assays are as good as expected. It has been suggested that WSR is waiting for Sept, to report assays in a larger batch, does make sense when you think about it. Why release good news before you can get a realistic reaction from investors. Sept nears and I am looking forward to seeing the assays from this drill program. At current share prices the risk/reward looks favourable for MTX/WSR. Watch the volume on these stocks to get a clue when assay results are getting near.

All eyes will be on FNC this week, from investors, that are knowledgeable with the McFaulds Lake story. Hopefully we get a hit from FNC to put the McFaulds stocks back on investors radar screens. The share prices may be down presently, but this story is a longs ways from being over. If I had to make a prediction I would think we are in about the 3rd inning of a long ballgame. I believe it will take years for the McFaulds story to play out.

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.




Al

 

[LOR]

Tuesday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas, the major Asian indices were down across the board on credit jitters, the renewed concerns about the health of the US financial sector had investors selling stocks and buying safe-haven government bonds. The major European indices are also down across the board, as lingering credit worries has investors selling financial stocks again. Commodity stocks are also selling off because of weaker metal prices. On the economic calendar today we get Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers at 10 am. At 2 pm the FOMC Minutes are released. The early futures are pointing to a slightly lower opening for the US indices. Continued weaker commodity prices doesn't bode well for the Canadian indices. However, commodity prices have been all over the map lately, this could change at the drop of a hat.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT continued to trade in a tight range, on very low volume. Down only $.03 for the day, NOT held up very well in comparison to most commodity stocks. NOT once again closed right on it's 13(MA) as the stock continues to consolidate and trade sideways. NOT has resistance at $2.94 and shows $2.60 as the support level. Without news it appears NOT will continue to trade sideways, bouncing off it's resistance and support points. This is actually a show of strength for NOT, as many commodity stocks are selling at or near 52 week lows. A recovery in resource stock prices, would benefit stocks like NOT the most, is how I see the current situation.

With so many irons in the fire, we can expect news from NOT at any time. One situation that bears watching, is drilling by it's proximity neighbour FNC. If FNC hits, I expect NOT's share price to respond, as it would add important tonnage to the Eagle One nickel discovery. I think a hit by FNC would lead to a JV possibility between FNC and NOT. It would be a win/win situation for both companies, FNC would get the money it needs to continue drilling and NOT would have enough tonnage to make a mine viable. Once and for all, this would silence the critics about the Eagle One discovery, being too small, to support the idea of building a mine.

Now that NOT has their first 43-101 behind them from the Eagle One deposit, it leads to some interesting possibilities. One is it removes the last hurdle for NOT to get a TSX listing. I haven't heard much about this lately, but I certainly can't see it hurting NOT's share price. In fact a listing on the TSX would/should help NOT's share price. Many investors just don't buy stocks listed on the TSX-v, so a listing on the TSX would bring in a new set of investors to the equation. I'm very surprised we haven't heard more from NOT about a listing on the TSX. Possibly NOT is already working on this idea and one of these days we will be surprised with an unexpected announcement. If anyone has heard about NOT applying for a TSX listing, I would appreciate getting an update on this board about it.

The word from Debra yesterday from FNC, is the plan is to drill 4 holes total, on this drilling program. She claims that drilling won't be completed by next week, although I doubt this claim, unless they are experiencing mechanical problems. Debra also stated, not to expect a news release from Peter Smith, until the drill program has been completed and he has time to go over all the material. Somehow it would not surprise me that we will see some feet dragging, from Peter Smith, to get this drilling program news out to shareholders. One thing about Peter Smith, he doesn't get in a hurry to do things. In the meantime, I expect to see some volatility on FNC's share price. A rumour here and a rumour there and we should see some wild share price swings. A hit of mineralized, massive sulphides, from the 2nd hole of drilling, continues to be the buzzword on the rumour mill. Yesterdays weak share price surprised me, however, the sell off in resource stocks in general, didn't help the situation. Very few mining stocks have any speculative value built into their share prices in this current market environment, so perhaps we should be lucky, that FNC has at least, bucked this trend. Investing in junior mining stocks, that are drilling, is not for those with weak stomachs, is an obvious understatement, to say the least.

TME is one stock that has shown share price strength lately. It has avoided the sell off, that has hit many of the ROF stocks. The news that NOT has entered into a JV agreement with TME on the Fishhook property is a definite plus for this stock right now. The Fishhook Property is 45 kms to the south of NOT's Eagle One discovery and the geologists are saying this property has the potential to host significant Ni-Cu-PGE mineralization. A 12 hole, 2,000 metre diamond drilling program has commenced on the Fishhook Joint Venture Property. TME is definitely a ROF stock that merits watching closely, at this time.

NRN is another stock in the ROF that bears watching. They currently have a drill program underway and we could be hearing news from the visual front at any time. A few regular posters on this board, are in this stock, so hopefully they will keep us informed to what is happening as this story unfolds. This is another one of those stocks who's share price has shown strength in this terrible market for junior mining stocks. The stocks that show strength in this type of market environment, are often the stocks you want to own, if/when the sector rebounds. JMHO

Lots of activity with various drill programs underway currently in the ROF. Now all we need is a rebound in the junior resource sector, to keep the dream alive. Perhaps it will take a hit by a stock like FNC, to bring investors back into these stocks. Or, perhaps, some good news from NOT's AT-12 discovery. But sooner or later something will happen in the ROF, to bring investors flocking back into these stocks, you can just feel it. There are just too many countless millions of dollars being spent on these drill programs in McFaulds Lake to think otherwise. JMHO

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.




Al

 

[LOR]

The Financial Tsunami and the PM market (Greg McCoach)


The Calm Before the Tsunami
By Greg McCoach | Monday, August 25th, 2008



Using the analogy of what happens just before a tsunami hits shore, the recent action in the financial and precious metal markets is indicating to me that the water at the beach has begun to recede. Some are fleeing to higher ground; while others who have not yet learned what these ominous signs mean, are walking on the beach observing the unusual spectacle with great curiosity.

Unaware of the great wave of financial implications that roars towards the coast, many unfortunately will be lost in the disaster that lies ahead. Today we'll review our current economic environment... and look at why right now could be the best time in 5 years to invest in gold mining shares and the broader mining market.

Why is This Happening in the Financial and Precious Metal Markets?

The root cause is the US financial system, which is in very deep trouble. Continuing the analogy, what is happening to many US financial institutions can be likened to a great earthquake that fractures on the ocean floor and causes a giant wave of water to form. This wave is now rippling across the ocean with amazing speed and headed for shore.

The core issue is deflation, which is rearing its ugly head. Take a look at just a few of the recent examples of this deflation:

1.Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) has written down US$46 billion in asset values and sold US$30.6 billion in CDOs at 22 cents on the dollar!

2.Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has taken US$14.4 Billion in write-downs on its mortgage related portfolio since the third quarter of 2007.

3.Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) has slumped to a quarterly loss of US$2.3 Billion and revealed that it set aside US$5.3 billion to cover credit losses over the three months to June. Freddie Mac, by its own admission, has a negative net worth! The latest reported net market value of its assets is negative US$5.6 billion and growing. Shares of Fannie Mae have lost 86 percent over the past 12 months while shares of Freddie Mac have surrendered 91 percent.

In addition, on August 12, J.P. Morgan Chase disclosed an incremental US$1.5 billion loss related to residential mortgages since the end of its second quarter. The company's shares plummeted 9.5 percent, wiping out more than US$12 billion of market value.

All other big US financial stocks lost another US$50 billion in value on top of that, taking the total one-day loss in the US finance sector to US$62 billion.

The US financial industry is still the year's worst performer with a 28 percent fall so far for 2008.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG), the big insurer, plunged nearly 20 percent for its worst one-day performance in nearly four decades!

AIG shares have plunged 59 percent this year. AIG's quarterly loss was driven by US$5.56 billion in second quarter pretax write-downs tied to all its credit-default swaps. AIG has posted more than US$18 billion in losses over the past three quarters.

These plunging asset values mean deflation at the moment is gaining the upper hand. This will result in a systemic cross defaulting amongst the titans of US finance. An avalanche of US bankruptcies is about to hit our shores, affecting millions of investors.
The Continuing Inflation/Deflation Debate and How it will Affect the Financial and Precious Metal & Mining Markets

Many continue to argue whether deflation or inflation will ultimately rule the day in our economic environment moving forward. While the jury is still out on this issue, my take is that we could see both. First let's define what I am talking about.

Inflation is an increase in the quantity of both money and credit, while deflation is the opposite. In a genuine monetary deflation, all prices fall. It is a situation where the quantity of money and credit contracts. This type of scenario is definitely moving through the system at the moment. Most are already feeling the affects of this deflation in lower house prices and reduced or suspended lines of credit in many situations. There is a real scramble for cash at the moment.

This contraction in the quantity of money and credit is also putting the real estate market in a very tough situation. House prices, which were softening across America, now look like they could implode to the downside as more and more homeowners are feeling the squeeze. It is estimated in one report I read last week that 70% of mortgage holders that purchased a home since 2003 cannot sell their house for what they owe on it. This is an ominous statistic in the face of what is currently underway, and means a huge proportion of US home mortgage holders are looking at staggering losses if they sell. In many cases homeowners will simply walk away and hand over the keys... putting even more pressure on the lenders.

On the Inflationary Side of Things...

The Fed is under enormous pressure to create gargantuan levels of money out of thin air to bail out the many institutions that are in trouble. They have no other option at this point but to create this money. While some believe this will be highly inflationary, others argue that money created for bailouts will not be inflationary since it will only be replacing money in the system that has been destroyed. In other words, replacement money.

While the tug-of-war between the two forces of inflation and deflation continues to be debated, my take is that we will witness deflationary forces at first but see massive inflationary forces later.

The massive amount of debts first need to be removed from the system and that process is underway. The house needs to be cleaned of bad debts so to speak. This is causing deflation at the moment. At some point however, the forces of inflation look like they must hit with a fury as foreigners, fearing the financial condition of the U.S., start dumping our IOU's to them. I am of the opinion that most of the inflation we are going to see will come from foreigners, such as the Saudis, the Chinese, and Japanese, who will at some point start dumping dollars and T-Bills they hold in masse. They are going to want to buy something of real value with those dollars and when that happens, the inflation that we have exported for decades could suddenly come home to roost.

Up until this point, since foreigners have been content to hold our dollars, we could get away from feeling the affects of this inflation. At a point, however, in our not-to-distant future, the forces of inflation look like they will take over. The Fed has said repeatedly they will print as much money as is necessary to avoid deflation. I take them for their word on that promise.

All of this activity will prove good for gold, silver and eventually our mining shares.

Dreadful Times = Opportunity in Gold Mining Shares

I have mentioned several times this year that before we get to the parabolic moves that many are expecting in the metals and mining shares, we may have to witness a downside that could be absolutely dreadful. Well, unfortunately, dreadful is where we are right now.

On top of the carnage in mining shares, gold and silver prices have been hammered to the downside taking the metals to unexpected levels causing investors even more concern and worry. Gold has now sold off almost 25% from its last new high made in March of this year at US$1,031. Typically we have seen gold and silver sell off 10% to 15% after making a new high so this new development is making some headlines. It has been as difficult a time as I can remember in this market, especially since the fundamentals are so strong for much higher prices.

The sell-off in gold and silver this past week, which was unexpected by most including myself, is a short-term phenomenon. It will not last long. We can best endure it by understanding what is happening and knowing that this volatility is a clear indicator that something is really wrong, prompting in my opinion near-term explosive moves in the metals.

The Fed, knowing a financial hell-storm is about to hit, is trying to prepare as best they can by propping up the dollar. In my opinion the Fed has informed the central banks around the world of what they are dealing with and have asked for help in supporting the dollar. A massive collapse of the dollar would be bad for all involved. So in collusion with other central banks around the world, the Fed has propped up the dollar temporarily knowing what is coming is going to be very negative for the greenback. Their hope would be that as the financial tsunami hits, they can keep the dollar from going below the 70 level on the US Dollar Index. Just prior to this up-move for the dollar of almost 5%, the US Dollar Index was teetering around the 71 to 72 level. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Two pieces of information I look which have been reliable in the past are the Gold/XAU and Gold/HUI ratios for determining where the bottom may be for gold and silver prices. Based on these ratios, I see that the price of gold and silver may have bottomed last Friday. For me this was a totally unexpected buying opportunity last week and a gift for those who were looking to add precious metals to their portfolio. Bullion dealers everywhere however have been reporting that they have little or no inventory of items to sell. On top of that the U.S. Treasury announced they have suspended the minting of gold and silver eagles for the time being. All of this is very unsettling but very positive for much higher gold and silver prices.

An Upturn in Mining Shares

Our mining stocks are acting even more problematic, but I sense this market will soon bottom out as well over the next several weeks. Hedge Funds, which are blowing everything out the door in order to raise cash, have been the biggest culprits affecting our mining shares. With so few buyers at the moment in the precious metal markets, we are seeing the best purchase opportunity I have seen in the junior mining shares in the past five years. There are some exceptional values out there at the moment. Several of our stocks will be moved back into the buy category in the August Mining Speculator which will be out later this week. In this edition I will have a full update on our mining stocks and which companies would be the best places to put new money right now. I sense the turn to the upside could be very close as we head into the fall.

For now, all we can do is exercise patience and prepare as best as we can for the major changes that are coming. Please do not panic and sell your mining shares at these ridiculous levels. A better time is right around the corner.

Greg McCoach

 

[LOR]

Wed morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas, we have the major Asian indices split this morning, with the Nikkei down only 0.20% and the Hang Seng up almost 2%. The major European indices are trading mixed this morning, with the financial sector stocks once again taking a hit, on continued concerns about the economic slowdown and wories that there is still further fallout coming, because of the subprime credit crunch issues. The FTSE in England is slightly in the green this morning as energy and mining stocks are showing gains, because of higher commodity prices. On the economic calendar today we have the Durable Goods Order numbers at 8:30am, followed by the all important Crude Inventories numbers at 10:35 this morning. The early futures numbers are pointing to a positive opening on the US indices. IF commodity prices remain strong, it should bode well for the Canadian indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake, it was another dreary day of low volume for NOT again yesterday. The share price was down 2.5%, as NOT continues to trade in a narrow range. For today we have support at $2.61 and resistance at $2.77. NOT continues to struggle to break through it's 13(MA) at $2.73 and this remains a key resistance point. The junior mining stock sector continues to have total lack of interest from investors as evidenced by some of the lowest volumes traded on NOT, since the discovery of Eagle One was announced a year ago. It will obviously, take some news from one of NOT's drilling programs, to bring investors back to the table. When the share price does break from this sideways consolidation pattern, I suspect it will be a violent move to the upside. My bias for the upside break is because, the break will most likely come from news stemming from the AT-12 anomoly drilling program. By all accounts, we are expecting some barnburner assay results from AT-12. Many are expecting the AT-12 anomoly to be a sister pod to the Eagle One pod. We all remember what happened to NOT's share price, when the Eagle One assay results hit the news wires last year at this time. If we can get some nickel assays in the 2% or better range, the words "Eagle Three has landed" will be the headlines of the day !!! JMHO

The markets are still struggling with trying to put a valuation on the chrome deposit of Blackbird One and Two. What will it take to get some kind of recognition from the market that this is a world class discovery is anybody's guess. Perhaps it will take a buyin from a major for a percentage of NOT, for investors to wake up. Nemis has told investors numerous times, that he has been in discussions with several majors, who are taking a serious look at what NOT has discovered so far. You have to wonder at what point a major will decide to jump in and take this discovery to the next level. Perhaps the majors are waiting to see what FNC comes up with, then see if Nemis can come up with some sort of JV agreement with Peter Smith. Of course this is all depending on what the drill finds on FNC's property. There is always the possibility that FNC could turn out to be a dud. Perhaps it is the remote location of McFaulds Lake and the tremendous costs of infrastructure, that is holding the majors back from taking the leap. However, I doubt the cost of infrastructure is that big of a deal, if this deposit turns out to be worth $30 to $50 billion as some are suggesting. Maybe the majors are waiting for some of these countless other drilling programs to report what they have found. The reasons why a major would wait are numerous, but at some point in the near future you have to believe one of the big boys will jump into this important discovery. The one thing you have to give Nemis credit for, is he has tied up a good percentage of the companies drilling in McFaulds Lake under the JV umbrella. The longer a major waits for some of these drill programs to unfold, the costlier it will become for the major to buy in. Many of these majors are sitting on huge cash positions right now, the metal prices have been on the high end for the last couple of years and the producers are pocketing enormous sums of cash. At some point one of these majors will want to put some of this cash to work. The junior mining companies offer excellent buy in values right now, as their share prices are near 52 week lows for many of them.

It is my opinion, a major will take a shot at NOT in the not too distant future. This is one of the many reasons I think NOT is severely undervalued at current share prices. JMHO

FNC was back in play yesterday. The share price was up over 13% for the day and the chart is showing signs of turning the corner. There is a down gap on the chart from $1.85 that appears destined to be filled. FNC's 13(MA) is at $1.65 and we are getting close to breaking atop this important resistance level and it would turn into support if it occurs. The 50, 100 and 200(MA)'s are all converging right at the big resistance level around the $1.76 mark. If the gap on the chart is going to get filled, we will be trading atop all the major (MA)'s and it affords some blue sky potential for FNC's share price if it occurs. Now, all FNC needs to do is cooperate with their drilling program. The "word" from FNC, is two holes have been completed and they did some downhole data gathering, from these first two holes. Drilling has now restarted and the last two holes will now be drilled.

The FNC drilling program is without a doubt, the single most important event in McFaulds Lake for 2008. It is no coincidence that NOT is drilling on one side of the imaginary fence and FNC on the other side, at the same time. They can share important downhole information and if they both hit at the same time, it will make a huge splash in the mining world headlines. The rumour mill is working overtime on FNC's side of the fence, as we have heard they hit massive sulphides on their 2nd drill hole. Massive sulphides in itself is meaningless, however after what NOT discovered in their massive sulphides discovery at Eagle One, it does offer a glimpse into what kind of discovery this has the potential to be. The mere fact that NOT came back to drill on the same anomoly, after reading what the VTEM survey had to say, certainly has the appearance of being a telltale sign. With only 27.5 million o/s shares, if FNC hits, you don't have to be a genius with numbers, to figure out what this will do to FNC's share price. A $4 share price would only put FNC's market cap slightly over the $100 million mark. When NOT hit last year at this time, their market cap rose to over $700 million. If FNC ends up being the octopus and NOT just being a tentacle of this discovery, it does open up some interesting possibilities, to say the least. Stay tuned, this play has all the makings of having a fairy tale ending. JMHO

BMK has been very quiet as of late. The share price has taken the proverbial beating, after their last drilling program fiasco. BMK currently has a drill program underway, that is testing 5 high priority anomolies and obviously looking at BMK's share price, investors could careless. If the last drill program is a history lesson, we should be getting some leaks from the current drilling program shortly. Watch for a volume spike to offer some clues. The risk/reward looks tipped towards the reward side for those looking for a lottery ticket, with some decent upside potential. JMHO

ADD/MTX/WSR's huge intersect of 131.9 M of Semi-Massive to Near-Massive Sulphides should be reporting assays shortly. Some investors figure WSR has delayed reporting assay numbers because of the rough market conditions we are experiencing this summer. Why announce assays, when the market just sells off good news anyways, is the theory for the delayed assay news release. It is certainly possible they will be releasing these assays as a batch release and there is some interesting potential here. It was reported in the visuals, there was copper and other base metals in the core samples. Of course visuals need to be backed up by assay results. It has been reported, WSR has built one of the biggest mining camps in McFaulds Lake, since the first halt, when this discovery was announced. The fact that NOT leant one of its drills, to help out with the drilling program of this discovery, is also an important point to remember. For those looking for a good risk/reward situation, this play offers some excellent potential.

FWR/KWG/SPQ's share prices are also showing some early signs of strength. Perhaps the market is just waking up to the potential of the last visuals these companies released and are just now putting some valuation on them. However, all these stocks have some baggage issues. SPQ and KWG with their massive o/s share counts and FWR with the 15.5 million share overhang from free trading paper from their prior PP's. This paper was all taken down at the $.30 and $.35 levels. So the need to churn through some shares to get the share structure cleaned up is there, however a few high volume days would do the trick with FWR. Of the 3, FWR offers the most potential because of all the irons in the fire they have on their numerous properties. In fact FWR should be announcing a drill program on their 100% owned anomoly shortly. The word is FWR will begin drilling on this anomoly sometime in the 2nd week of Sept. The VTEM surveys are showing this anomoly to have some excellent potential.

There is just too much happening in McFaulds Lake these days to report it all in one morning thoughts post. So I will try and mix it up a bit, from day to day, on the various other drilling programs. FNC and NOT are still the leaders in McFaulds Lake and ones most news worthy at this time. Things are definitely heating up in McFaulds Lake !!!

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.





Al

 

[selkirk]

not management and this nemis seems to be more bent on promotion than actually trying to prove a deposit.

also though TC makes some good points he goes from waiting for info on a 5 billion potential to talking of a 15-30 billion deposit. I mean there are so few deposits that even come close to this... it is wrong to be claiming these numbers, until a final feasibility study.

can many companies that do not even have a market cap of 15-30 billion.

not sure if they have made much progress besides management making wild claims, that some investors keep rising...I mean why stop at 30 billion just add a zero or two.

if managment thought the project was huge they would be drilling as quickly as possible and making sure the results were tested as quickly. way back they announced that they were going to use two drills... the results were good.

stock shot back up to 7, then they annouce two drill rigs, and delayed, delayed results are bad, then some mixed ones...

with two drill working, not sure if they are, seems little info is being generated.
also do not buy that any jr. is holding back news, they need all the news they can get.

if they believed it was a resource in the billions they would never have considered mining a small amount a shipping it to sudbury.... a plan that seems impossible to generate large earnings and free cash flow.

the jr. space has been beaten down however this company has to compete with other jrs. for money that have projects closer to production.

not sure why any sr. would take a large positon in a company, that does not seem to be advancing the project with drilling then a pre feasiblilty and final feasibilty study.

the market will take them serious when they have good results and a mine can be proven not until...

they can claim 15- billiion -30 billion or 100 billion it does not matter.

thanks
selkirk

 

[LOR]

Here is a post from AB. I'm off to the cabin for a nice long weekend vacation with family, friends, good food and plenty of beverages of choice. What more could one ask for, NOSOF SP to make a new high while I'm away would be nice. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

A big chunk of Blackbird excrement hit?s me square in the forehead

Posted by: cwallace on August 28, 2008 08:42AM

Good Morning NOT
When Kaiser comments on Mcfaulds being potentially "the Greatest Canadian Area Play ever," that is saying something. This guy knows his stuff. As a subscriber, I can tell you, I am and have been pleased with his insight. But, to make this statement, this tells of the amazing potential Kaiser believes Mcfaulds could possess.... Mdfaulds reminds me of young Michael Phelps about 4 weeks ago.
I?ll admit, I sometimes wonder if Eagle 1 will be the only really high grade Nickel we find. I?m a bull on NOT, of course I am, but, the mind does wonder? and then suddenly, I look up, and out of nowhere there it is, a big chunk of Blackbird excrement hit?s me square in the forehead... I see white and I?m back to reality?we have one hell of a find. Lets keep our mind from wondering and our eyes on the prize.
In saying keep our eye on the prize, I truly am somewhat apologetic to again post on the nonsense in the US? skip a few paragraphs if you like? but, lets make one thing clear? I think the whole commodity story is the inverse, polar opposite, choose your term, of the paper fiat world the US and world financial/banking system is.
As shareholders of NOT, everything we are looking for is real? it has value, there is something to it? it?s not printed, it?s found and it has substance. Our commodities are not based on pro-forma, although we can dream?lol ?Our stuff has no obligation attached to it, unlike the nonsense in the financial crisis we are watching. So, as I digress, come along with me for a moment. As I see it, we NOT shareholders will benefit tremendously from the folly to the south. (welcome Windfall.)
Aside, does anyone here really believe FNM's only purpose for existence was to lend money for housing. Aside from enriching many Wall-Streeters and company execs along the way... how on earth did this company continue to trade when they couldn't for years report an audited quarterly financial statement? Is no one going to go to jail for this? Like in the next 30 days? tulips and mortgages.. what a ponzi we are about to see collapse. If there were found a new breed of Tulip, I?d consider naming it Fannie Mae, to remind us, and our kids, of this horrible episode.
You'd think a company with such importance as FNM would own a few computers and would have plenty of information at there finger tips regarding their mortgages and the state of their business... what could be so convoluted to not produce an audited financial statement?? especially when it comes down to trillions of dollars worth of loans.... oh, wait a minute....
Shouldn?t this be the scandal of the decade? bigger then Enron/WorldCom, Martha Stewart and OJ Simpson combined? Alas, likely both parties are up to there elbows in dirt, and the US tax payer, or foreign bag holder, will have to pay for the unscrupulous nature of some of the wealthy and powerful.
I have a few questions? seriously. Do you actually need a house to create a mortgage to lend against? Can you figure out a way to package that phantom mortgage out to investors in Germany and England and Japan and China and Korea and no one know the difference?
I bet you could. I bet you could have multiple mortgages on a single property, or for that matter, multiple mortgages on many properties... you could do this if: no one was accounting for the mortgage properly and if the house and/or homeowner didn?t exist. Is that so far of a stretch? especially without financial statements for years and years. Apparently it is impossible to unwind these bundled mortgage products? I wonder why. But what if the mortgage went into default?
I have an idea, cash in the mortgage default insurance to make it all better. I wonder and worry how messy this housing situation could become.... why can't FNM act like every other company and produce audited financial statements? What on earth are they hiding?
I hope this shows the importance of having real assets, having stuff that has real value? that?s what we have with NOT? and now it?s only a matter of finding more of it and waiting for the world to catch on to the problem with paper.
Second aside, can someone here tell me what a "gold blank" is...? Are we going to find a few gold blanks at Windfall? When the US Mint says they are out of gold blanks, does that mean anything to anyone? I always thought a gold blank was the actual ounce of gold the US stamped their Eagle on. Is the blank not the metal itself? Maybe I am wrong and will be corrected.
If I am correct, why are guys like Dennis Gartman somewhat condescendingly, and with ridicule to gold fans, claiming something to the extent of "there is no shortage of Gold, there is a shortage of minting devices..." what does that mean...? Please, feel free to connect the dots.
My take, there is a shortage of gold (blanks). Do people just believe the crap that is shovelled on them day in and day out? I suspect there is a shortage of gold for making coins and the US isn?t about to dip into Fort Knox to get it. No conspiracy, just a logical supply and demand summary. Holy shit, what is the world coming to?? shortage of minting devices, is that comical. .. I would understand a shortage of ink or paper to print money, but not minting devices. lol
Back to NOT.
As I understand, we have 5 drills going... likely one on Eagle 2, Eagle 1, BB2, AT12, and a JV with WSR... which one are you most excited about? Honestly, think about where we are drilling and the potential for NOT shareholders that each drill holds.
Eagle 1, an extension of the original has tremendous implications... AT12, show me some more nickel tonnage and grades above 1%. For all the drilling at Eagle 2/BB1 does anyone have any estimate of what this tonnage is worth, or what the value of these finds are?... I realise we are handicapped due to Eagle 2 assays etc. BB2, keep proving up our monster chrome deposit. Last, but not least, the JV.... whether it's WSR, or FWR.... wow, wow, wow. ....
and a tsx listing, a major partnering, a neighbor hitting, and surely a Windfall.... bring it all on.
Do you get the picture? Does anyone? what an exciting time... oh and, 45,000 shares traded yesterday? what a day? and what a great time to be a shareholder of NOT.
not financial advise, due your own dd
regards
cwallace

 

[LOR]

Last post til Wed. Have a safe holiday weekend. Lor



Thursday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. Overseas this morning the major Asian indices are mixed with small gains on the Nikkei in Japan and the Hang Seng in China down around 2%. In Europe the major indices are flat this morning. Once again the financial stocks are under selling pressure, this time on 2nd quarter earnings news. The red ink continues to flow in the financial sector. Oil prices are once again nearing the $120 mark on weather related supply concerns, as Tropical Storm Gustav is threatening Gulf of Mexico oil production. On the economic calendar for today we have the Chain Deflator-Prel., GDP-Prel. and Initial Jobless Claims numbers at 8:30 this morning. Yesterday we had a surprise with better than expected Durable Goods numbers, if today the Initial Jobless Claims numbers come in better than expected, it could be the first signs that the economic downturn in the US has bottomed and in the process of turning to the upside. In the US, it has been a strange recession, as it appears to be a Wall St induced recession and as such, it has been hard to predict what the catalyst will be to turn it around. The financial sector is a complete mess, because of mismanagement and corporate greed on Wall St, yet other parts of the economy have shown amazing resilience. The early futures numbers are pointing to a mixed opening for the US indices. If commodity prices remain strong and the $US continues to weaken it should be another good day for the Canadian indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT continued to show total lack of investor interest, as the volume of shares traded hit a new low since the McFaulds Lake discovery was first announced one year ago today. Today marks the one year anniversary for the Eagle One discovery, as it was halted August 28th 2007 and we got our 1st clue, that something special had been discovered in McFaulds Lake. There was only an $.08 spread yesterday between the low of the day and the high of the day. The tight trading range has the chart showing NOT is grinding down into a wedge and at some point in the very near future, we are going to have a violent breakout, either to the downside or the upside. With support at $2.58 and resistance at $2.74, the tight trading range most likely will continue for the rest of the week, barring news. With Nemis on holidays until next week, it is doubtful we will see news from NOT before next week. This week may be the last week to pick up a few shares of NOT at these bargain basement prices. JMHO

It is expected the avalanche of news, that has been pent up from NOT over the slow summers months, is about to be unleashed. My bet is it will start sometime next week. With 3 or 4 drills running 24/7 over the last couple of months, the assay labs must be full of core samples from NOT's numerous drilling programs. All eyes will be on the assay results from the AT-12 anomoly. This was the surprise anomoly that showed up on the VTEM survey, as having tremendous potential, so NOT took a shot and decided to give it a look and was an instant hit, as the visuals look very encouraging. Hopefully for the shareholders of NOT, we hear, sometime next week, that Eagle Three has landed. It should, give the share price, the breakout boost, that many are expecting. A visual report of a hit, on drilling near the border of FNC, would also be something, that could cause the share price, to breakout, out of its current sideways consolidation pattern. With so much on NOT's plate, it is hard to imagine the share price and investor interest staying stagnant for much longer. Realistically, the share price could break out at any time, just on the anticipation of the news that is expected shortly. Bargain shoppers may want to get an early jump, on what could be one last opportunity, to get in, before the NOT promo machine kicks into high gear. JMHO

FNC continued to do the slow climb back up, from last weeks share price flush. The volumes have dropped off this week, but the share price continues to climb, more on the lack of sellers than the abundance of buyers it appears. RBC continues to be the big buyer of FNC over the last week, not sure if this is because someone is in the know however. It could be RBC was one of the big shorters of FNC and is just slowly buying on a daily basis to cover. This way they don't spook the share price up with one big buy order. Whatever the reason for RBC's buying spree, it has definitely been a plus for FNC's share price. It will be interesting to see just how many shorts are left, if any, when the next short report comes out for the period ending August 31st. My bet is they will all be covered, just can't imagine anyone being short FNC right now, unless they knew that FNC was going to miss on this drill program. Hoping to get an update today from FNC to see where they are at with their drill program. Anyone who hears anything today, or takes the time to phone FNC's office, please take the time to keep this board informed. I know many of us that are in FNC currently, are sitting on pins and needles. As much as I try to keep emotion out of my trading, this is one drill program that has me excited. So much is riding on this drill program being a success, for all the McFaulds Lake stocks. A hit by FNC should bring investors back into the fold and put some excitement back into the entire McFaulds Lake area. There is something about a high grade nickel discovery that gets investors attention. The last "rumour" update that I have received is that FNC hit sulphides in their 2nd hole. However it is just a "rumour" and should be treated as such. It will require confirmation from Peter Smith with a news release, before serious investors buy into the rumour. A halt by FNC, to announce a massive sulphide hit would make the share prices of the McFaulds stocks go ballistic and would send investors on a buying frenzy much like we seen last year at this time, when NOT announced their discovery. It's just too bad Peter Smith is not the promotional type of guy to ever do such a thing. The word out of FNC's office is not to expect any news release until the drilling program is complete and Peter Smith can go over all the data. However we can always dream.

PRB's share price continues to struggle after their miss on their drill program on their McFaulds West program. However, we could get assays back at any time to update us on what they found, if anything. The drill program wasn't a total miss as they did report intersecting peridotite over 80 metres, which closely resembled the host peridotite of the Eagle One nickel-copper discovery. PRB will be going back to redrill this property some time this fall. Buying shares at current low prices may prove to be a wise decision if FNC hits with their drilling program. The mere proximity should give PRB's share price a boost if FNC does hit.

MKR, not sure if anyone noticed, but I did talk to Jens Hansen Pres of MKR yesterday and did a follow up post of my conversation with him. I actually was very disappointed to learn, there are no plans to drill the East or West Rim properties before early March 2009. One thing I failed to include in yesterdays post was that Jens did mention there was one target they may drill this fall on the West Rim property. He was waiting to hear back from BOL, their JV partner, before making a decision to drill. From what I could gather this anomoly looked very promising, so they may take a stab at seeing what they can uncover on just a quick hole or two.

http://tradingchief.com/en/mboard.php?page=read&pid=5545

As we wait for news from some of the various companies that are currently drilling in McFaulds Lake, I would like to thank the members that do post on this board. This board needs continued participation to keep the board alive. I realize we have just went through a tough summer for investors in McFaulds, but I think that situation is close to correcting itself as Sept nears.

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.


Al

 

[LOR]

Here's a post from AB.

Why Noront will be worth $15 in short time - despite economy
Posted by: rodg45 on September 02, 2008 11:42PM

In response to: Re: Outokumpu Oy - Keminmaa... by FANTOMAS

Great research by Fantomas and great contribution! This is why myself and others on here have looked at chromium plays in other parts of the world and their revenues to get a handle on what Noront's Blackbird deposits will do for our stock price. Folks - I've owned stocks that, despite sliding prices in other junior miners and junior exploration stocks, have made great gains. Even if the drop in metal prices continues (which it will not - and I know that for a fact - and if you have not read and considered the many posts on here quoting reliable sources about the continued growth in many other countries' economic development, and their need for steel, foundational for so many basic necessities for modern life - then you will not understand) Noront's value will go up incredibly because we have what many nations need whether times are good or bad, economically. You know you cannot live without food, right? Well, how are you going to get that food to yourself if you are not a subsistence farmer and live in a town or city providing some service or product for some money in which to purchase some food? You've got to have trains or trucks. That means steel and chromium to make that kind of steel. This is simple math and logic people!!!!!!!!! We are sitting on probably the largest and highest grade of chromite in the world, in a country and region that has the best and safest political climate. Also, the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) in America has been working overtime to manipulate the metals markets lower and try to support the equities markets in America (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, etc.), in order to try and make the U.S. dollar look stronger and prevent the many nations from cashing out of U.S. currency to Euros and other currencies. They are desperate to con and deceive the Americans and world that there is still some hope for the U.S. dollar and U.S. stock market to survive. They will fail in the end - because the Fed is printing out so many fiat paper dollars to allow the PPT to pay to short the metals markets, and to pay to support the American equities markets, that they cannot keep up with what they are currently doing. Also, by printing out so many more fiat paper dollars, they are cheapening the value of the U.S. dollar so fast, that the devaluation of American currency will soon become apparent to investors and foreign governments, that this will accelerate the flight from the U.S. dollar into other things that actually have value - nickel, chromium, steel, gold, etc. I'm not going to try and support what I've said with links to articles and websites that do this so well - it would be too burdensome. If you are not aware of this yourself - then you've not done good due diligence. For those of you who have, then this is merely, as we say here in the south, "preaching to the choir" (who already know and support what you are saying).

 

[LOR]

Wednesday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. On the major Asian indices we have a mixed performance with the Hang Seng in China down sharply, on fears of a global economic slowdown. In Japan, the Nikkei is up over 0.6%. In Japan the market is up, as portfolio managers are shifting funds into the market, to replace maturing bonds, before closing their books, for the first half of their business year. In Europe the major indices are down sharply, on hefty declines in commodity prices and worries over global economic growth. Oil prices continue to slide, as concerns about Hurricane Gustav impacting Gulf of Mexico oil production, have receded. The financial stocks are taking a big hit on the FTSE in England, as the sterling has touched 12 year lows vs the $US. On the economic calendar for today we get the ADP Employment numbers at 8:15 am followed by the Factory Orders numbers at 10am. At 10:35am all eyes will be on the Crude Inventories numbers. At 2pm the Fed's Beige Book will be released, giving us a glimpse at current economic conditions in the US. The early futures are pointing to a negative opening for the US indices. The continued decline in commodity prices, has the makings of another rough day for the Canadian indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT had a rather boring session for most of the day, but the volume kicked in on the last hour of trading. NOT ended the session at the high of the day up 4.4% and finally had a close, well above it's 13(MA) for the first time since early August. The 13(MA) at $2.71 is now support. It appears the stock is now headed to test the major resistance point at $2.92, of its 50(MA). What I found interesting yesterday, was how NOT bucked the trend of the major selloff in the TSX-v exchange index and closed at the high of the day, with heavy volume in the last hour. This trend reversal at the close yesterday, looks like someone with deep pockets, was buying in on expected news. The only other explanation for the close yesterday, was someone finally woke up and realized NOT's share price was a tremendous bargain at these share prices and decided to jump in before the herd came to the same realization. The chart indicators all turned positive and further share price gains today certainly look probable. If NOT can achieve a clean break today of the resistance of its 50(MA) at $2.92, this would be a clear sign NOT's downtrend has finally been broken. With the 100(MA) at $3.68 NOT certainly has some blue sky possibilities for a run if it breaks atop it's 50(MA).

Yesterday NOT management announced they had 3 drills in and around the Eagle One deposit. This certainly sounds like good news, for not only NOT, but also FNC. NOT has always stated the Eagle One deposit was open at depth and along strike. Perhaps now that FNC is drilling, NOT has decided to go back in and add some tonnage to its Eagle One discovery. If FNC hits in its drilling program it would open up a host of possibilities that the Eagle One deposit is much larger than the initial resource estimate indicated. There is always the possibility that FNC and NOT could both hit at the same time in their current drill programs and we would see the same kind of excitement that we experienced last year at this time. It has aways intrigued me why NOT would wait to go back drilling this deposit, until FNC was drilling. Nemis being the promotional guy he is, perhaps has known all along FNC would come up with something of significance, on their side of the imaginary fence and he wants to deliver, the double whammy of announcing two hits at once? Stay tuned, this has the makings of a good soap opera if it happens.

We should be getting assays results back from the lab any day now on the AT-12 discovery. NOT originally announced this discovery on July 17th, at that time they reported, encouraging widths of visual copper-nickel-iron sulphide mineralization up to 29.2 meters in MMS style Cu-Ni mineralization in peridotite host rock. We were also told at that time assays were pending. This was 7 weeks ago, so assay results are certainly due. Since that discovery was announced the rumour mill has run rampant. At one time I heard NOT had hit on further drill holes and came up with Hole #5 like mineralization, that was discovered at Eagle One. This is why many are calling AT-12 the sister anomoly to Eagle One. If the grades of nickel at AT-12, prove out to be anything over 2%, one would have to believe NOT's share price is way undervalued at current share prices. It is entirely possible yesterdays high volume at the close, was because someone got a whiff that news was imminent.

FNC surprised me yesterday, it had its lowest volume since mid August. The share price was down over 4%, but obviously with the low volume it wasn't on any perceived bad news. It's share price just seemed to follow the general market trend and was down just on general market weakness. The rumour mill chatter, has certainly dried up, after earlier leaks, on the first two holes. I have no idea if this is true, but I heard Billiken fired members of their drilling crew, because of leaks after the first hole was drilled. It is industry knowledge that Billiken prides itself in running a closed lipped drilling operation, so it wouldn't surprise me. FNC should be drilling their 4th and final hole by now, in fact it could be close to being finished. I haven't heard if Billiken stopped and did a downhole on its 3rd hole. Perhaps if someone phones FNC today we can get an update at what stage FNC is at currently? I'm sure Forrestt must be getting itchy for an update here shortly. ...hint, hint

It is public knowledge that FNC only had enough money to drill a certain amount of metres in this drill program. This opens up a host of possibilities. Will FNC announce a PP before drilling is completed and continue this current drill program? Or, will they wait to they get assays back before going to the well to raise money? Or, it is entirely possible, if they come up with nothing of significance on this drilling program, they would JV this property for the expected chrome on other anomolies? The one thing I always found interesting was how Peter Smith refused to do a JV with NOT on this property and wanted to drill it alone. This tells me he was very confident that he would hit something of significance. I do know he was very excited after receiving the VTEM survey results. Take Smith's confidence, add in the fact that NOT decided to go back in and drill at the same time as FNC, across the imaginary fence and it all adds up. Obviously Smith and Nemis both believe there is a pot of nickel at the end of this rainbow. JMHO

PRB's share price continues to languish around the $.25 level after their dismal drill results on the McFaulds West property. The only reason I even mention PRB at this time is because it is possible the share price gets a pop if FNC hits anything of significance. This opens up an opportunity, for investors to lessen their risk, by buying PRB at current share price levels. If FNC hits, you get an instant winner, because of the expected pop in PRB's share price, on just the proximity factor alone. If FNC misses, you still get cheap shares and wait for PRB to go back in and redrill the McFaulds West property, sometime this fall. Investing in PRB, is still a lottery ticket, but at least you get two plays for your buck.

FWR's share price continues to hold up well, even in down days for the market. We have discussed in detail about the 15 million share paper overhang from two previous PP's from $.30 and $.35 that are now free trading. What FWR really needs is good assay results from NOT's AT-12 discovery to get enough volume, to get this share structure cleaned up. FWR has adjoining property to this discovery and it is entirely possible that part of the AT-12 discovery is on their property, so the share price should get a good boost if this pans out. It is expected FWR will announce they are drilling their 100% owned anomoly probably sometime starting next week. Hopefully NOT announces their assay results from AT-12, before FWR starts drilling. This way the share structure will be cleaned up and FWR's share price can run on the anticipated speculative fever. From all reports, the VTEM surveys look very favourable, for a hit by FWR, on this drilling program.

Still nothing from MTX/WSR on their assay results from their discovery. I still believe the risk/reward is above average for those that have invested in this discovery. Hard to imagine why it has taken 2 and half months to get these assay results back, but they have to be very close to being announced. For those wanting an above average lottery ticket possibility, I wouldn't take the chance of waiting much longer to get in.

There is lots happening currently in the McFaulds Lake plays. It is my view, it is only a matter of time before a discovery of significance is announced and investors scramble back into these stocks. That time is very near, so stay tuned, it is no longer a matter of weeks or days before we hear something, it could happen at any minute. JMHO

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.




Al

 

[LOR]

Post from AB

My first bit of DD I would like to share
Posted by: jgocar24 on September 03, 2008 10:10PM

For the most part, I only read posts, ask questions and occationally draw up scenerios to see what you all think. But today I decided to do some real DD to prove something to myself. At first i was very excited about our chomite finds. After watching the market not even flinch with our finds i started to doubt the true value of chromite. So I started looking up other chromite companys and i came up with Chromex (traded on the UK exchange chx.l) Here is the link to their web site http://www.chromexmining.co.uk/Home....

From what i have read about them. They have approx 24 million tonnes of chromite (total resources). They are a UK based company that operates out of South Africa. They have only been publically listed since 07-09-2006. Now here is the good stuff. They are currently trading at approx 39.00 GPB per share or $73.32 CDN. Their outstanding shares are 84.11 million giving them a market cap of 3.2 Billion GPB or 6.15 billion CDN. In Aug -2008 they were trading as high as 46.00 GBP per share (86.48 CDN). So now we now chromite has value but what about demand???

That brings me to my next link http://www.steelguru.com/news/index/...

There are countless articles to support the growing demand for chromite but i like the above article. Read the whole article but the first sentence is "Chromex to step up chrome ore production amid strong demand ". Also the last paragraph is very interesting "Chinese ferrochromium production from imported ore has started to replace some of the South African exporters? market share. Some South African producers have even suggested that the government should clamp down on exports of chromium ore." So high demand and the possibility of South African govenment clamping down on chromium exports (sounds good to me). Never mind the electrical shortage in South Africa I have read about from some of the posters here.

So, 99.9% of my doubt about chromite value is gone. We have excellent grades, tonnage(which will probably improve in time) and demand. IMHO we could easlily be at the value of Chromex or better. It seems the North American market does not understand this yet so it makes perfect sense to start promoting it in Europe where they already GET IT! Hope this clears up some doubt for others like myself. But like everybody else says, do you own DD. I'm glad I did.

GLTA NOT Longs

JGo

 

[LOR]

Thursday morning thoughts from TC

Good morning. On the overseas market the major Asian indices are down around 1% for the day. The Nikkei in Japan closed at a five-month low. Tech stocks were todays biggest losers as investors worry about technology spending in the face of increasing economic doom and gloom. In Europe, the major indices are mixed this morning, as investors wait for central bank rate decisions, later this morning. Financial stocks are once again the biggest drag on the European indices. Commodity stocks are the market leaders, as they track higher oil and metal prices. On the economic calendar today we get the Initial Jobless Claims and Productivity Revised numbers at 8:30am, followed by the ISM Services numbers at 10 am. All eyes will be on the Crude Inventories numbers at 10:35am to give investors clues in the direction of oil prices for the remainder of the week. The early futures are pointing to a down day for the US indices. The rise in commodity prices should bode well for the Canadian indices today, to bounce back from extremely oversold levels.

Back in McFaulds Lake, NOT followed the sharp sell off in commodity stocks to close down nearly 5% for the day. A large sell order was placed in the closing minutes yesterday, as the market maker was determined to close NOT's share price just under the 13(MA). However, the additional volume of shares traded yesterday was a welcomed sign, NOT had it's highest volume in over a month. I was expecting news yesterday from NOT, but looking back at the carnage in the TSX-v exchange stocks, it was just as well they didn't. Hopefully, the higher volume yesterday will lead to higher share prices today. For today, NOT is showing support at $2.51 and $2.95 as resistance. NOT needs to break through the 50(MA) at $2.90, to break out of the ascending triangle. To me this would be confirmation a new uptrend has emerged, after basically trading sideways for the last month. Obviously it will take additional volume, to break through this key resistance point. News from anyone of numerous possibilities would do the trick, perhaps today, is the day.

I have been hearing lots of rumours on various fronts from NOT. As it is hard to decipher fact from fiction, it is best to let NOT give us a news release before commenting on them. The way Nemis has been so quiet lately, it appears he has been slapped with a muzzle order, so no use getting the guy in further trouble, by commenting on rumours. I will say this, lately all the rumours have been very positive, so if any one of them turns into reality, it should bode well for the share price. If there is no halt before the market opens, my plan is to add to my position at some point this morning. Personally I would like to wait, to NOT is trading above it's 50(MA) before adding, but at current share price levels, the downside risks appear very limited to me.

A quick list of possible news at any time from NOT is, 1) assays news or visuals from AT-12, 2) news from Windfall on the progress of the ramp, 3) visual news from drilling on the border anomoly with FNC, 4) visual news from the drilling program around the UC claims*, 5) confirmation of the rumours at AT-5, 6) assays from the Blackbird One and Two Chrome discoveries, 7) assays from the Eagle Two discovery, 8) more JV news, 9) TSX listing news, 10) news from a major taking a % position in NOT. There are probably a few other possibilities that are not on the above list, but just from those listed, we can see NOT has a lot on its plate currently. I'm expecting a very busy next couple of months from NOT. This is the reason I believe at current share prices, NOT is severely undervalued. Before anyone asks about the *, this is something you may want to keep your eye on.

FNC had a rough day yesterday. Obviously, the general miserable market conditions, for junior mining stocks, the last couple of days, isn't conducive to investors being in the mood to be playing speculative stocks like FNC. The low volume tells me yesterdays near 10% haircut in FNC's share price, had more to do with general market conditions than anything else. Forrestt took the time to phone FNC yesterday, he couldn't get a hold of Peter Smith, but he did talk to Debra. Basically he got very little information, other than FNC is still drilling and the plan is for Peter Smith to give an update after the drill program is completed. The general timeline, is not to expect news from Smith, until sometime next week. He also asked if there was any plans to do a PP anytime soon and she had nothing to comment on, from this front. I still believe we will see one of two things from FNC shortly. We will either get news about a PP, or we will see a JV agreement announcement. The most likely candidate for a JV announcement would be with NOT. If FNC goes the route of a PP, I doubt it would be institutional or open to the public. It would most likely be a bought deal financing, taken by insiders. JMHO

Lost in all the excitement of FNC's current drill program in McFaulds Lake, is any further news on the Magpie situation. At one point we were told, holders of stock in FNC would receive one share of a new company, split off from the McFaulds property, called Magpie Mines Inc. The last news we received from this endeavor was back in Feb. At that time we were told that this currently private company, had the intention of going public, within the year from the announcement. The next time someone talks to Peter Smith, perhaps we could get an update from him on the status of this project.

Investors may want to keep FWR on their radar screens. As many stocks were getting hammered in this weeks market correction, the share price of FWR has been very stable. It is one of the few McFaulds stocks that has held up well as of late. The drill program on their 100% owned property could possibly start, sometime next week. Apparently the drill has already arrived in Pickle Lake and is in the process of being transported to FWR's property. Also any good news on the assay front from NOT's AT-12 anomoly would be good news for FWR. News from the Windfall property could have implications for FWR's share price as well.

BMK is still getting no speculative boost, to its share price, from it's current drill program. We could be getting visual news from BMK at any time. At the very least we should be hearing something on the rumour front. I'm very surprised how close lipped the drill program is this time. On the last drilling program, the rumours run rampant. This time, not a peep. This is a huge drill program this round, with 5 different anomolies being drilled. Surely after the last drill program fiasco, the geologists at BMK have a better idea of what they are looking for. At current share prices, the downside risks seem limited. Remembering back to BMK's last PP, many of the mining worlds biggest names, are involved with this stock. Rarely do these industry heavy weights toss their money into something without merit, so on this factor alone, it is worth keeping your eye on this stock.

MTX/WSR still no assay news from these guys. Follow the volume, this one has to be very close to releasing assay news. I hate to keep harping about these stocks, but the risk/reward looks favourable, for those that like a little speculation in their portfolio. Definitely a pair of stocks to keep your eye on. JMHO

There are so many possibilities currently in McFaulds Lake, with all the drilling programs underway, it is hard to keep track of them all. One thing is for sure, at some point McFaulds will end up, becoming a very important mining camp. There have just been too many discoveries of significance to think otherwise. At this time the market doesn't seem to be prepared to give NOT and a few of the other companies, much of a valuation to their market caps, from the chrome discoveries. It should be noted the assay values of these chrome discoveries are on the high end, when compared to some companies at various locations around the world, that already have producing chrome mines. No matter how you slice it, the chrome discovered in McFaulds Lake is world class, at some point in time, in the very near future, the market is going to wake up to this very important fact. Early back of the napkin valuations, on the chrome discovered so far, is somewhere in the neighbourhood of between $40 to $50 billion. These are mind boggling numbers. Once these kind of numbers are applied to the market cap of stocks like NOT, it doesn't take a mathematical genius to figure out the share price is severely undervalued. JMHO

Best of luck to all McFaulds Lake investors.





Al