BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MISSOURI STATE
Game: Drake vs. Missouri St. Game Time: 2/26/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Missouri St. Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSOURI STATE. Its been an impressive season for the over-achieving Drake Bulldogs. This figures to be an extremely difficult spot though as Drake has already clinched its first regular-season Missouri Valley Conference title in 37 years and is coming off a road win over a top 10 opponent. In other words, the Bulldogs have all but locked up their first trip to the "Big Dance" since 1971. Therefore, it would get pretty easy to have a letdown off the big road win and/or get caught looking ahead to "more important" games. Regardless of the Bulldogs' mindset, winning at Missouri State is no easy task. In fact, the Bulldogs have lost six straight here and are an ugly 1-15 all-time. Drake beat the Bears 65-54 on Jan. 12 in Des Moines. However, that game was closer than the score indicates, as the teams were tied with four minutes remaining. Missouri State may be near the bottom of the MVC, but it has been tough to beat at home, going 13-2. The Bears have won their last three games in Springfield by an average of 23.0 points. This will be the Bears' first game against a ranked opponent of the entire season and I expect a highly inspired effort. Look for them to be the hungrier team, continuing their homecourt dominance in this series.
VANDERBILT
Game: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Game Time: 2/26/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT. I lost by going against Tennessee in the big win at Memphis. I think I was just a game too early though and I'm going to attempt to go against them again this evening. Talk about a "letdown" spot. Not only are the Vols finally in first place in the polls and coming off a huge win over a hated instate rival but that was their first win over a top-ranked opponent since 1969. Letdown or not, this is an extremely difficult venue to play at. In fact, the Commodores have won 17 straight home games and 30 of their last 31 here. To say that the Commodores will be extremely motivated is probably an understatment. Not only do they now get a crack at the #1 team in the country but they also will be attempting to avenge a 20-point blowout loss at Tennessee in January. The Commodores were also slight home underdogs when they hosted the Volunteers last season and they managed a narrow upset win. That dropped Tennessee to 0-2 SU/ATS the past three seasons as road favorites of -3 or less and brought Vanderbilt to 3-1 SU/ATS as home underdogs of +3 or less. Looking back further and we find the Commodores at a profitable 13-7 ATS the last 20 times they were home underdogs of three points or less, with all 13 of those "covers" resulting in outright victories. They've won three of the last four series meetings here and I expect them to score another 'upset' this evening.
SETON HALL
Game: Seton Hall vs. South Florida Game Time: 2/26/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Seton Hall Reason: I'm taking the points with SETON HALL. Recent results have given us solid value with the visitors here. The Bulls have come off three straight pointspread victories, while the Pirates have failed to cover in three straight. A closer look shows some similarities though. Both teams were just 1-2 SU over those games and both teams are coming off an extremely close game. Seton Hall knocked off Depaul by two points while South Florida lost by one at Cincinnati. That was the second straight 1-point game which the Bulls have played (fifth straight decided by 11 or less) and I won't be surprised to see their tendency to play close games continue this evening. Seton Hall already beat South Florida by 10 earlier this season and they also won here last February. In fact, they're 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings. Making it to the Big Dance is pretty unlikely. However, at 16-11, if they can sweep their final four games, they still have an outside shot. That's not quite as unbelievable as it sounds as three of those games come against weak teams (South Florida, St. John's and Rutgers) and the only "good" team is Syracuse, with that game coming at Seton Hall. Again, sweeping those four games is probably unlikely. However, the possibility is there and that gives the Pirates a lot to play for. Look for a highly motivated effort as the Pirates build off the win over Depaul, continue their success in this series and improve to 18-12 ATS the last 30 times (lined games) they had failed to cover the spread in their previous three games.
MIAMI
Game: Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 2/26/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. While their record certainly doesn't show it, the Heat are a better team right now than they have been for quite some time. They came very close to snapping their losing skid last time out, eventually losing in overtime to Philadelphia. As Pat Riley noted: "We did everything we could to win except win..." Facing a team which they have dominated here, I expect them to "take the next step" and earn the first victory of the "post-Shaq" era. The Heat are 16-3 all-time against the Kings here at Miami, winning five games in a row against them there by an average of nearly 13 points. Overall, Miami has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS the last eight meetings and has won the last seven matchups outright, since losing at Sacramento on Jan. 13, 2004. The Kings haven't been playing well defensively lately, as they are allowing 111.3 points over the last three games, while allowing opponents to hit 47.7 percent (31-for-65) from 3-point range. For the season, the Kings are just 9-19 SU on the road, including a 0-1-1 ATS mark as road favorites of three points or less. Looking back further and we find them at just 2-10-2 ATS (4-10 SU) in that role the past three seasons. During the same stretch, the Heat have gone a healthy 9-5 SU/ATS when listed as home underdogs of three points or less. It's also worth noting that the Heat are 28-3 SU, going 21-8-2 ATS, the last 31 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. The Heat play three road games after this, including a rematch with Sacramento on Sunday, and it goes without saying that they'd love to snap their skid before leaving town. As Dwayne Wade said: "Nobody in this locker room is going to quit..." Look for a highly motivated effort and for the Heat to get it done. *Non-Conference GOW
MILWAUKEE
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 2/26/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. I played on the Bucks in their first game back from the Break and they knocked off Detroit. At the time, I mentioned that they were healthier than they had been in the first half and that I expected them to start off the second half on a profitable run, at least at home. Following the upset over the Pistons, it wasn't a huge surprise that they were blown out at Detroit in the rematch. They didn't hang their heads though. Rather, they returned home and upset Denver in their most recent game. Michael Redd appears to finally be back to 100% health as he scored a season-high 41 points in the win over the Nuggets. He had this to say: "Major wins against quality teams, that's encouraging. We have to come out every game, from here on out, with an attitude." This game is arguably more important to Milwaukee. While the Cavs are battling for playoff seeding, currently 3.5 games out of the final spot, the Bucks are battling for their playoff lives. The Cavs were impressive on Sunday as their new players made their debut and the team won by 20 points. That was at home though and it also came against Memphis, the second worst team in the West and one with no shot at the playoffs. Conversely, today's game comes on the road and comes vs. a highly motivated divisional opponent, one which already played the Cavs extremely tough (Bucks were 2-0 ATS) in two games at Cleveland, winning one of those outright. Note that the Cavs are just 1-5 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit victory in their previous game. Its also worth noting that they've got a huge showdown with the Celtics on deck for tomorrow and that the Cavs are just 5-8 ATS on the season when playing the front end of back to back games. Additionally, they're still without Daniel Gibson and there's still likely to be an adjustment period to all the new faces in the lineup. Look for the Bucks to prove to be the hungrier team, continuing their recent strong play at home and improving to 9-3 ATS on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. *Best Bet
UNDER lakers/blazers
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins Game Time: 2/26/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm playing on OTTAWA. We're getting an excellent price with the better team due to the fact that the Sens lost 5-0 at Toronto yesterday. The Sens are 13-7 the last 20 times they played the second of back to back games though and 21-13 the past three seasons after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Additionally, the Sens will be out for "revenge" as the Bruins upset them at Ottawa a few weeks ago. Note that the Sens, who were listed at -200, outshot the Bruins by a 31-22 margin. Additionally, note that they had won four straight series meetings before that and that they've won their last four visits to Boston. This is the Bruins' first game back home off a successful 5-game road trip. That's often a difficult situation and I expect them to stumble against a fully focus and determined Ottawa club. *Eastern Conf. GOW