WUNDERDOG
Game: Orlando at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 100.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Magic games average 205.1 ppg but most of the scoring comes in the second half, especially of late. Over their last five games, 210.2 ppg have been scored, but just 98.4 in the first half. New Jersey games average just 90.5 ppg in the first half. So, 102.5 is too high, driven up by Orlando's full game averages. Combine this with the Nets' 41-14 UNDER mark in the first half in all games this season, and we have a strong play here on the first-half UNDER. In games with a total over 100, the Nets are 9-1 UNDER. And, when facing teams that average 103+ ppg, they are 12-1 UNDER in the first half! Orlando is 18-4 UNDER in the first half when playing a winning team this year. Everything here points to an UNDER in the first half and that's our play.
Game: Cleveland at Milwaukee (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Bucks have done nothing on the road, but they have flexed their muscles at home, especially against the good teams. The Bucks own an impressive 9-4 ATS mark at home vs the .500+ teams in the NBA. Two of the ATS losses have been by a single point. They have already claimed out-right wins at home vs Denver,Detroit,Washington,Orlando,Dallas,LA Lakers, and Toronto. The Cavs have already lost on the road to the Knicks,Atlanta,Seattle,New Jersey,and Charlotte, so this is far from a lay-up. When you consider they are playing at Boston within 24 hours of this game, it becomes more interesting, because you know that rests in the back of their minds, and this game, which looks easy, may not get their full attention.
Game: Utah at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Timberwolves have played much better of late. A team that won just 5 of their first 34 games, has now won 5 of their last 14. What is more important, is they have become much more competitive as indicated by their 11-5 ATS mark over their last 16 games. This is a team that began the season by losing at home to teams with a winning record by 8+ in 11 of their 1st 12 games. They have now turned those numbers around, as they have lost by 7 or less in 5 of the last 8, in the same situation. The Jazz have been a very hot team, having gone 20-4 over their last 24 games, but the 4 losses have all been on the road, where they are just 12-17 on the season, and that is their ATS record as well on the road. They have been even worse as a road favorite where they are just 7-11 ATS on the season. They also have bigger battles on the horizon, as their next 2 are vs Detroit, and New Orleans. We like the improving Wolves to hang tough at home in this one.
NHL
Game: Minnesota at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Here we get two poor defenses and average offenses although neither offense is playing well right now. Washington has averaged just 2.1 goals per game over their last seven games while Minnesota has scored 3 total goals in their last three games. Washington is coming off a 1-goal performance last game and they are 12-4 UNDER the past three seasons at home in that situation. Under Jacques Lemaire, the Wild are 61-41 UNDER off a home loss. The way these offenses are going, we like the UNDER here.
Game: New Jersey at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
New Jersey has dominated Carolina this season, outscoring them 15-3 in three games. This is Carolina's last chance at revenge and we like their chances as they are 6-1 this season revenging two straight losses by 2+ goals. The Hurricanes are riding a bit of momentum having won two straight, scoring 11 goals in the process. They will need that kind of offense vs. a Devils team that is keeping all comers out of the net. But, this Carolina team can score (3.3 per game at home this season). If Carolina can get 3 goals, they likely win as New Jersey's offense is weak. Road teams having won five straight lose 60% of the time in that sixth game. Carolina is 20-2 the past three seasons at home off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals. This is a good spot for a motivated Hurricanes team.
Game: Ottawa at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ottawa -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
We faded Ottawa yesterday and they suffered a horrible 5-0 defeat to lowly Toronto. Now we will back them after that embarrassment. They will come out fired up here after that debacle and they are a good road team at 17-12, scoring 3.3 per game. Boston is a losing home team that averages just 2.4 goals per game at home. They have lost by an average of 0.6 goals per game to division foes, allowing 3.1 goals per game and amassing an 8-13 record. They are 28-41 the past three seasons at home vs. poor defensive teams that allow 2.9+ goals per game. Ottawa is a solid 15-6 on the road this season at -100 to -150.
Game: Colorado at Calgary (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)
Hope is back in Colorado. The Avs re-signed legend Peter Forsberg yesterday. Although he doesn't join the team on the ice until Saturday, his signing will provide an emotional lift to the team tonight. On top of that, there is more reason for confidence from the Avs. They finally have their top three weapons back from injury, playing together. Joe Sakcic, Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny played together on Sunday for the first time since November. Colorado has an wining record as an underdog the past two seasons and they are 27-10 over that span coming off a road loss. We look for Colorado, with key players back and the emotional boost from one more coming, to take this game.
Game: Detroit at Edmonton (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -140 (risk 3 to win 2.1)
Detroit's slide continues. After complete domination of all comers through February 5th, the Red Wings have lost eight of nine games. The good news is that their defense only slipped a bit. Over those nine losses, they have allowed 2.8 goals per game. It's their offense that has dissappeared. Over those nine games they managed to eclipse two goals just twice and are averaging just 1.7 goals per game. The Wings are 18-10 UNDER this season on the road while Edmonton is 17-11 UNDER at home. Edmonton's road offense is atrocious but at home it's very good (2.5 goals per game). So, we have two UNDER teams with very good defenses and one good offense that is slumping severly. The Red WIngs are 10-2 UNDER this season on the road vs teams that average 2.9+ goals per game allowed. They are also 11-4 UNDER on the road off an UNDER this season.