SERVICE ACTION FOR TUES. 2/26

the duke

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Orlando at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 100.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Magic games average 205.1 ppg but most of the scoring comes in the second half, especially of late. Over their last five games, 210.2 ppg have been scored, but just 98.4 in the first half. New Jersey games average just 90.5 ppg in the first half. So, 102.5 is too high, driven up by Orlando's full game averages. Combine this with the Nets' 41-14 UNDER mark in the first half in all games this season, and we have a strong play here on the first-half UNDER. In games with a total over 100, the Nets are 9-1 UNDER. And, when facing teams that average 103+ ppg, they are 12-1 UNDER in the first half! Orlando is 18-4 UNDER in the first half when playing a winning team this year. Everything here points to an UNDER in the first half and that's our play.


Game: Cleveland at Milwaukee (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Bucks have done nothing on the road, but they have flexed their muscles at home, especially against the good teams. The Bucks own an impressive 9-4 ATS mark at home vs the .500+ teams in the NBA. Two of the ATS losses have been by a single point. They have already claimed out-right wins at home vs Denver,Detroit,Washington,Orlando,Dallas,LA Lakers, and Toronto. The Cavs have already lost on the road to the Knicks,Atlanta,Seattle,New Jersey,and Charlotte, so this is far from a lay-up. When you consider they are playing at Boston within 24 hours of this game, it becomes more interesting, because you know that rests in the back of their minds, and this game, which looks easy, may not get their full attention.


Game: Utah at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Timberwolves have played much better of late. A team that won just 5 of their first 34 games, has now won 5 of their last 14. What is more important, is they have become much more competitive as indicated by their 11-5 ATS mark over their last 16 games. This is a team that began the season by losing at home to teams with a winning record by 8+ in 11 of their 1st 12 games. They have now turned those numbers around, as they have lost by 7 or less in 5 of the last 8, in the same situation. The Jazz have been a very hot team, having gone 20-4 over their last 24 games, but the 4 losses have all been on the road, where they are just 12-17 on the season, and that is their ATS record as well on the road. They have been even worse as a road favorite where they are just 7-11 ATS on the season. They also have bigger battles on the horizon, as their next 2 are vs Detroit, and New Orleans. We like the improving Wolves to hang tough at home in this one.



NHL

Game: Minnesota at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Here we get two poor defenses and average offenses although neither offense is playing well right now. Washington has averaged just 2.1 goals per game over their last seven games while Minnesota has scored 3 total goals in their last three games. Washington is coming off a 1-goal performance last game and they are 12-4 UNDER the past three seasons at home in that situation. Under Jacques Lemaire, the Wild are 61-41 UNDER off a home loss. The way these offenses are going, we like the UNDER here.


Game: New Jersey at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)

New Jersey has dominated Carolina this season, outscoring them 15-3 in three games. This is Carolina's last chance at revenge and we like their chances as they are 6-1 this season revenging two straight losses by 2+ goals. The Hurricanes are riding a bit of momentum having won two straight, scoring 11 goals in the process. They will need that kind of offense vs. a Devils team that is keeping all comers out of the net. But, this Carolina team can score (3.3 per game at home this season). If Carolina can get 3 goals, they likely win as New Jersey's offense is weak. Road teams having won five straight lose 60% of the time in that sixth game. Carolina is 20-2 the past three seasons at home off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals. This is a good spot for a motivated Hurricanes team.


Game: Ottawa at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ottawa -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

We faded Ottawa yesterday and they suffered a horrible 5-0 defeat to lowly Toronto. Now we will back them after that embarrassment. They will come out fired up here after that debacle and they are a good road team at 17-12, scoring 3.3 per game. Boston is a losing home team that averages just 2.4 goals per game at home. They have lost by an average of 0.6 goals per game to division foes, allowing 3.1 goals per game and amassing an 8-13 record. They are 28-41 the past three seasons at home vs. poor defensive teams that allow 2.9+ goals per game. Ottawa is a solid 15-6 on the road this season at -100 to -150.


Game: Colorado at Calgary (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)

Hope is back in Colorado. The Avs re-signed legend Peter Forsberg yesterday. Although he doesn't join the team on the ice until Saturday, his signing will provide an emotional lift to the team tonight. On top of that, there is more reason for confidence from the Avs. They finally have their top three weapons back from injury, playing together. Joe Sakcic, Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny played together on Sunday for the first time since November. Colorado has an wining record as an underdog the past two seasons and they are 27-10 over that span coming off a road loss. We look for Colorado, with key players back and the emotional boost from one more coming, to take this game.


Game: Detroit at Edmonton (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -140 (risk 3 to win 2.1)

Detroit's slide continues. After complete domination of all comers through February 5th, the Red Wings have lost eight of nine games. The good news is that their defense only slipped a bit. Over those nine losses, they have allowed 2.8 goals per game. It's their offense that has dissappeared. Over those nine games they managed to eclipse two goals just twice and are averaging just 1.7 goals per game. The Wings are 18-10 UNDER this season on the road while Edmonton is 17-11 UNDER at home. Edmonton's road offense is atrocious but at home it's very good (2.5 goals per game). So, we have two UNDER teams with very good defenses and one good offense that is slumping severly. The Red WIngs are 10-2 UNDER this season on the road vs teams that average 2.9+ goals per game allowed. They are also 11-4 UNDER on the road off an UNDER this season.
 

the duke

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LT Profits


Boston College +5.5 (-110)
Tue Feb 26 '08 7:00p
Neither the Boston College Eagles nor the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to the NCAA Tournament this season unless they upset the apple cart in the ACC Tournament, but we do expect a tight battle here, giving the underdog Eagles value at this price.
Yes, Boston College has won just once in nine games, but at least the Eagles have been competitive while going 3-1 against the spread in the last three games, and their last two road efforts have been nice covers at Duke and Florida State. They should also be motivated by revenge here, as they lost 81-73 at home in overtime to the Hokies last month, so they would love to return the favor here in Blacksburg.
On the other hand, we feel that 16-11 Virginia Tech will have a difficult time getting excited about the Eagles, as they are coming off of an upset win at Maryland and a revenge win vs. Georgia Tech, and they have another revenge game vs. Wake Forest up next. Tonight seems like the dead spot in this stretch of games, especially since the Hokies beat BC earlier.
As a result, we see this game going down to the final buzzer with an outright upset not out of the question.
Boston College +5.5




Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames u5.5 (-125)
Tue Feb 26 '08 9:05p
The Under is now 20-10 in all Colorado Avalanche road games this season, as well as 17-12 in all Calgary Flames home games, so look for more of the same tonight.
The Avalanche have had major troubles finding the net lately, as they have now scored two goals or less in six of their last seven games, and they lit the lamp just three times in the other game. Furthermore, they scored one goal or less in four of those games. Things have gotten so desperate for Colorado that they resigned injury-prone 73-year-old Peter Forsberg yesterday, although his return to the ice will not be for at least a couple of games.
Now the Flames have been like night and day defensively home and away this season. While they have been prone to getting involved in shootouts on the road, they have been more like the Calgary of old on this rink, where they are allowing 2.52 goals per game. Most importantly, goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff is at peak form right now, as he has allowed just two goals on 102 shot over his last three starts!
In fact, the Flames as a team have allowed just four goals in four games, so look for another low-scoring affair tonight.

Avalanche, Flames Under 5.5 (-125)
 

the duke

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Steam Plays

LA Lakers Under 203
Washington +13
South Florida Over 144
Memphis Over 213
Bradley pk
So Illinois +1
New Jersey Under 203
Milwaukee Under 198
 

the duke

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VEGAS RUNNER OFFICIAL "STEAM"

NBA
(11-3 REC TO DATE mon-fri)

2* UNDER 198.5 CLEV /MIL
 

GIANTS007

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Sports Monitor

MATCHUP: Sacramento Kings (26-29) at Miami Heat (9-45)

WHEN/WHERE: Tuesday, February 26th 7:30pm EST

THE LINE:
Miami is -1.5 and the total is 202 points

TRENDS: Miami is 18-36 against the spread this season. Miami hascovered ten of the last 11 in this series. Miami hascovered seven of their last 34 home games. The KIngs havecovered seven of the last 26 as the favorite.

GAME SUMMARY: The Heat, less than two years removed from winning their onlyNBA title, will try to extend that success in an effort to snap an 11-game skid. They have also dropped 26 of their last27 games, with the lone win coming against Indiana at home onJan. 26 to halt a 15-game slide, the second-longest in franchise history.




SPORTS MONITOR
PREDICTION: Sacramento 104 Miami 98
 

the duke

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John Ryan

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (NCAAB) - 9:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-105 Vanderbilt Play Title: Not number 1 for long
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Vanderbilt ? AiS shows an 85% probability that Vanderbilt will win this game. So, much for the number one ranking in the country when you have to play in the SEC. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 109-62 ATS since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. UT is a very good team and deserving of the number one ranking in the nation. Yet, these strengths bring out the best in Vanderbilt. Note that Vanderbilt is 16-5 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1997; 31-13 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game since 1997; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home underdog or pick since 1997. Although the Memphis game started out with a blistering scoring pace both defenses took over the game and the UNDER was an easy money winner. This UNDER game puts UT into a very poor role. Note that UT is 2-11 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Vanderbilt also playing with significant revenge after an 80-60 blowout at UT on January 17th. Nothing could be better for Vanderbilt than to get the home win and knock UT out of the ranks of number 1. Take Vanderbilt.
 

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Big Al McMordie

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (NBA)
Feb 26, 2008 10:35 PM EST

Play: Los Angeles Lakers


At 10:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers. I'm not going to step in front of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Co. here, as this team is ROLLING right now. After its 20-point blowout of the Sonics, Los Angeles has won a season-high eight straight games, and most were no-sweat wins. Now, Los Angeles will get a break as Portland will be without its best player tonight. Brandon Roy injured his ankle in Sunday's 10-point loss to Boston, and should be out for at least two weeks. Interestingly, this will be the first meeting of the season (with three more still to come) between these Western Conference foes, and in the last game played (last year), Kobe Bryant poured in 65 points. Bryant has averaged 38 ppg in his last 10 games vs. the Blazers, and should be unstoppable again tonight. Lay the wood with LA. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
 

GIANTS007

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*** MY PLAYS ***

(7*) S FLORIDA -4
(7*) S ILLINOIS +1
(7*) UNLV -7 (BOUGHT THE HOOK)
(6*) VANDERBILT +2
(6*) UCONN -10

---NHL-------
(7*) BRUINS / SENATORS: UNDER 5-
(6*) FLAMES -150
 

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Paul Leiner

25* NBA Over 201.5 LAL/Port

25* CBB Over 131 Indiana/Ohio State

25* CBB South Florida -3.5

10* NBA Over 213 Phx/Mem

free play 5* CBB Vanderbilt +2
 
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reilly5337

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John Martin

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John Martin
10* Missouri -5.5
5* SW Missouri St. +1.5
5* BYU +4.5
5* V Tech -5.5
 

GIANTS007

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Michael Cannon

Tuesday's Plays...

20 Dime ?

MAGIC

Take the Magic as the road chalk tonight over the Nets.

Orlando has been one of the best road pointspread teams in the league this year. The Magic are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 away games.

The Nets, conversely, are one of the worst bets at home, going 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26.

And most of those were with Jason Kidd, who is now manning the point for the Mavericks.

Vince Carter is having a terrible season for New Jersey and they lack any kind of inside scoring.

The Nets can?t match the perimeter game of the Magic and they certainly can?t contain Dwight Howard inside.

Take the Magic as they cruise to the road win and cover.


10 Dime ?

UNLV

Take Unlv as the home chalk tonight over San Diego State.

The Aztecs have revenge motive for a 72-69 home loss to Unlv back on January 26. But they also have a freshman point guard going against a Rebels squad that excels in forcing turnovers, and the Aztecs also will be without their second-leading scorer, Kyle Spain, who is suspended.

San Diego State doesn?t possess any real threat from 3-point range, so the chances are great for the Rebels extending their lead tonight.

Unlv has been known to have troubles against big teams, but San Diego State doesn?t qualify in that regard.

Take Unlv minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
 

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Linecrusher (Paid/confirmed)

Tuesday, February 26th
6:00 Eastern Update
3*Sacramento -1.5 over Miami
At this price how can you not fade Miami who threw in the towel a long time ago. The Heat have lost 11 straight, are 1-26 their last 27 games, are 5-22 home, are 9-44 overall and have the worst record in the NBA.

4*Missouri -5.5 over Oklahoma State
Have to figure Oklahoma State will be at least somewhat flat if not totally flat coming off of Saturdays monster 61-60 home upset win vs then #5 ranked Kansas handing the Jayhawks just their 3rd loss of the season. Oklahoma State is just 2-10 straight-up on the road so far this season vs board teams while Missouri is 12-3 at home.

4*Vanderbilt +2 over Tennessee
Good spot for Vandy to be flat as a road favorite coming off of Saturdays huge 66-62 national TV win at Memphis handing the #1 ranked Tigers their first loss of the season and now it is the Vols who are ranked #1 and ripe for an upset loss themselves in this situation. You know Vandy wants this game being a national TV home underdog playing the nations #1 team with the added motivation of playing with revenge for a 20 point 60-80 loss at Tennessee January 20th not to mention the Commodores are a perfect 16-0 straight-up at home this season vs board teams. Upset
 
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