Drew Gordon
Tuesday Picks:
1. 200,000♦ New Mexico
2. 50,000♦ Indiana
3. 50,000♦ Trail Blazers
1. New Mexico- Lobos have been red-hot of late, winning and covering 6 straight games, including crushing 3 weaker opponents at home, and impressive road wins at San Diego State and most recently at Utah! Make no mistake, Brigham Young may be leading the Moutain West, but right now, New Mexico is the hottest team in the conference and it'll show tonight.
First of all, the Cougars have been far from impressive when they travel, going 6-4 SU & 7-6 ATS this season. Those 4 SU road losses all came against strong opposition, including Boise State, Wake Forest, UNLV and San Diego State - All tough road games, all losses SUATS!
Biggest issue for the Cougars has been their offense, which falls apart on the road, scoring just 66 ppg on 42% shooting... That's all long ways from their 75 pgg on 46% shooting they average overall this season! It won't get any easier tonight, as the Lobos are downright nasty on the defensive end at home, allowing just 55 ppg on 38% shooting there this season!
Also, its hard to ignore the fact New Mexico has been a cash machine in Albuquerque this season, going an incredible 13-2 ATS! Its not just their defense either, as they light up the scoreboard on the friendly rims, averaging 77 ppg on 49% shooting! You know the Cougars will bring their defense, but its not nearly enough to slow down the Lobos surging attack.
Bottom line, look for the Lobos streak to continue tonight at home against a Brigham Young team that has shown vulnerability in tough road games this season. Cougars offense will struggle against the Lobos lockdown home D, while Giddens and company will shoot well enough at home to cover the number. In the end, the Lobos are red-hot and staying with them at home is simply too much to ask from this Cougars squad.
Take New Mexico comfortably over Brigham Young as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Indiana- One of two things happens to a team being tested by controversy: Either A. their galvanized by the fire, becoming a stronger unit. Or B. they fall apart at the seams, and start pointing fingers. Needless to say, you can tell by my siding with the Hoosiers, that I'm expecting them to come out a better unit because of the coaching controversy.
They had a close one at Northwestern in their last game, but with several days to let the dust and emotions settle, I say we see one of the more focused efforts this season from Indiana tonight in their first home game in the post-Sampson era. We already know how good their defense can be at home, allowing 61 ppg on 40% shooting, but the real difference-maker is their offense.
Herein lies the problem for the Buckeyes, as they're a young team without a true "go-to" guy. Butler and Koufos are both solid players, but Butler rarely explodes for more than his average, and Koufos is too young and too soft right now to be considered anything but a # 2 option. The numbers prove my point, as Ohio State scores just 64 ppg on 44% shooting on the road this season... Just pop in the tape of their last road game, a 70-80 outright loss at Michigan, and you'll see exactly what I mean, and that was against the 9-18 Wolverines.
Indiana's offense is head and shoulders better than Michigan's, averaging a hearty 80 ppg on 49% shooting (40% from 3-point)! They were able to beat two of the Big Ten's best defenses in Michigan State and Purdue in back-to-back home games, and you best believe they can take care of Buckeyes in Bloomington also!
Bottom line, this is exactly the kind of win the Hooisers need to quell any doubts about this team ability without caoch Sampson. Look for D.J. White and company to come out more focused than ever, thanks in large part to the scare they received at Northwestern 3 days ago. Hoosiers capitalize on the Buckeyes inconsistencies on offense, on their way to the solid home win and cover.
Take Indiana BIG over Ohio State in this Big Ten showdown.
3. Trail Blazers- First things first, I don't care if Brandon Roy is out with ankle injury, as there's no excuse for a professional basketball team to lose by this many points in this spot tonight. True, the Blazers have lost 7 of their last 8 SUATS, but let's not get carried away, as the only game they covered in that span, was the only game they were double-digit underdogs - a 92-81 loss at Detroit back on February 8th.
Okay, so the Lakers are rolling, winners of 8 in a row SUATS, including 7 of those games on the road, which is impressive no doubt. But before we go giving them the crown, let's examine who they played over those 8 games - Atlanta, Miami, Charlotte, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Seattle - Are you starting to see a pattern here? Guys, besides their win against Phoenix, which was a rivalry game, they've beaten NBA cupcake after NBA cupcake. In other words, don't get too carried away by the Lakers success against the bottom-feeders of the league!
Blake, Jack, and Aldridge might not be as good as Kobe, Gasol, and Odom, but being spotted this many points, they don't have to be. Either the Lakers get ahead early, leaving the backdoor wide open all fourth quarter, or we get a relatively competitive contest, with the Blazers keeping it just inside the number. Guys, I can't tell you the anount of times I've doubted an NBA team because of one injury, and then all of a sudden, a player like Jack or Aldridge drops 30 points because they finally got to be the # 1 option.
Bottom line, there's no doubt the Lakers are the superior team right now, but I believe oddsmakers went a bit too far in overestimating the margin in this contest. Granted, the Blazers aren't playing well, but they also know without Roy, they're going to need a "max-effort" tonight or they'll get their asses handed to them. Its that kind of effort, from top to bottom, which propels them to cover tonight.
Take the Trail Blazers plus the points over the LA Lakers in late NBA action.
