INDIAN COWBOY
PLAY OF THE DAY: UTAH vs MINNESOTA
Play: Jazz/Twolves Over 199.5 (pod)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Jazz/Twolves Over 199.5 (pod) I would suggest reading my blog regarding this play, but the Twolves were on pace to scoring 96 against the Mavs as the 4th quarter started but they fell apart and scored just 12 points in the 4th quarter - and the Mavs are a more defensive team and a team that are far more focused on the half-court now with Kidd than a Jazz team who loves to run up and down the floor. I don't see the Twolves offense struggling too much today as they will look to bounce-back from just 83 points yesterday and the Jazz should be fine holding their own as the game against the Clippers the other night - a relatively slow paced half court team similar to the Twolves easily went over and I see this game as being a similar prototype. The over is 4-1 for the Jazz when they play a team with a straight up losing record, meaning that the Jazz defense lacks when they face losing teams such as the Clippers and the over is 5-1 when the Twolves face teams with winning records meaning that the Twolves show up when they play the better teams in the league - and they are at home which should aid their cause as well.
INDIAN COWBOY: S. ILLINOIS vs BRADLEY -1.5
Play: BRADLEY -1.5
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: BRADLEY -1.5 I understand that Ruffin will not be playing today when I rode with this play in the morning, but I still like Bradley. The Missouri Valley Conference and home court advantage have been synonymous for a long time. This is Senior night. Southern Illinois has beat this team the last 3 ballgames including winning by double-digits at home in their most recent game. However, Bradley is 10-5 at home and 2-0 against top 50 to top 100 ranked schools which is where Southern Illinois falls in at top 75. This team has won 3 in a row including winning big over Creighton and they managed to play without one of their stars during his suspension and beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee at home by 12. This team also beat Drake on the road by a point - and that is something that cannot be done simply by 1 player - it takes a lot of guts and galls to go on the road to defeat a team like Drake - who recently beat Butler at their house. Daniel Ruffin was actually the 3rd highest scorer in that game vs. Drake on the road which shows that this team does have other talent and scoring options besides him. Southern Illinois is 2-9 on the road and their 2 wins are against teams outside the top 100 - where as Bradley is in the top 100. But, this team has lost to Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Indiana State - all teams lower in power rankings than Bradley. The Salukis are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 ballgames when facing a team with a winning % of greater than 60% meaning they do not hold their fair share of the deal against better competition and the Braves have covered 8 of their last 9 ballgames in the Missouri Valley.
INDIAN COWBOY: SAN DIEGO STATE vs UNLV
Play: San Diego State +7.5
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: San Diego State +7.5 San Diego State is a top 100 team. In fact, I'm looking forward to seeing them either in the NIT as they should provide for some great value in the upcoming months if they get the invite. San Diego State is playing a Rebel team that is in the top 60. However, San Diego State has some bite, I want you to take a look at their wins: defeating BYU recently at home by 4 who is a top 40 team, beating Utah a top 100 team at home, losing to St. Mary's a top 30 team on neutral footing by 5 and losing to California on the road by 8 who is a top 60 school. Now, this team goes on the road to play a Rebel team who they lost to 69-72 at home and now look to get that revenge. This game reminds me of the Charleston vs. NC Greensboro game the other night in the Southern Conference when Charleston went on the road to cover. Look, UNLV is a good team, but this total is set at 129.5 and getting 7.5 points or roughly 6% of the points in a low scoring ballgame is significant. Who knows, there is even an outside shot at San Diego State winning outright. San Diego State's losses this year have been by 6 to Utah on the road, 6 to TCU on the road and 3 to BYU on the road. This is a game that should be tight all the way, but San Diego State should hang in there well tonight. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning % of more than 60% meaning they show up against the better teams in the league and the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.