Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Kentucky Wildcats - Wednesday February 27, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Kentucky Wildcats -5.5 (-110)
This pick on Kentucky Wildcats is both on them and against fading Ole Miss, which has seen its Big Dance "stock" plummet lately while playing more like "old miss" (as in missed shots), especially on the SEC road, where they are a pathetic 0-5 both SU and ATS in their last 5, including 0-3 as road dogs with average MOL (margin of loss) of 12 points, capped off with a 20 point drubbing at LSU in their last roadie. We've been fading Rebels ever since their home upset loss to Auburn several games ago, especially when they hit the road, where for some reason, the point production of key offensive components, center Curtis (single digits in 3 of last 4 games) and frosh point guard Warren (32% shooting last 5 games), has suffered lately. For example, in that 20 point upset loss at LSU, Curtis scored only 8 points, on 4-10 shooting, while Warren had 8 as well, on an ugly shooting night (3-16, including 2-10 on treys). And in recent 9 point setback at Alabama, not the best of home teams TY, Curtis got in early foul trouble and scored just 3 points, while Warren had another "brick-like" shooting night, hitting only 5 of 19 shots and just 3-10 from behind the arc. Contrast that to surging Kentucky, which has won its last six SEC home games (5-0-1 ATS in them) and is 9-1 SU in last 10 against Rebs, including 6-0 at Lexington and in SEC Conf tourney. Based on our home/road stats (Kentucky playing at home and Miss away), Wildcats have projected shooting edges of 7% from the floor and 14% from the FT line, as well as a +3 edge on the boards. While Kentucky sometimes goes thru cold shooting spells, especially from behind the arc, their aggressiveness on the boards has continually bailed them out, like it did in their tight 5 point win over Arkansas Saturday (a 5 unit winner for NIte Owl Sports), where they had a +15 RB edge. Bottom line, we like Wildcats at -6 or less, but get your bets in early, as we expect lots of "company" with our pick on Kentucky and as a result, an increase in the line during the day, and while Kentucky has been covering at home lately, they have not been "blowing out" teams, either. If you can't get -6 or less, or if you want some added value from this game, we also suggest teasing Kentucky to -1 or less with Arkansas, teased up to +5 or more over an alabama team which struggles at home vs good teams. But the best way to get the most value today is to buy our one day college hoops pass, our NBA/college hoops combo one day pass, or our one day all sports combo pack, as there is a huge card of games today, and we are on fire in hoops lately, at 11-2/ +16.7 units on our L13 NBA picks, 8-2/ +27 units on our L10 four and five unit college hoops picks, and 3-0/ +15 units on our L3 five unit ATS and $ line combo picks in college hoops.
