BEN BURNS
B.BURNS' Monday Night MAIN EVENT (10-1 L11 NFL Sides!)
I'm taking the points with DENVER.
Although they've been eliminated from the playoff race, I believe that the Broncos are better than their record indicates. Having been embarrassed 41-3 by the Chargers at Denver in October, I also feel that the Broncos will have plenty of motivation for tonight's contest. Note that Denver has gone 39-23 SU (34-23-6 ATS) the last 62 times it was facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. That includes a 7-3 SU mark the last 10 in that role. Naturally, the Chargers would like to win and keep their momentum going. They also can still finish as the third seed, rather than the fourth. That amounts to the difference between playing at Indianapolis or New England in the divisional round. Either way, to get to the Super Bowl, the Chargers would likely have to beat both those teams. That being said, considering that they've already clinched the division title, I feel that it may be difficult to get as emotionally fired up, as it would be if this game had more meaning. Additionally, if Norv Turner has been paying any attention, he will have noticed that playoff teams like Dallas, Pittsburgh and Tampa all suffered key injuries over the weekend. You may have noticed that the Bucs, who also were playing for the third or fourth spot and who had also just clinched their division, seemed to show little interest in winning their game, losing outright vs. SF. Although the Chargers have won the last few meetings, the Broncos remain a healthy 13-7 the last 20 meetings in the series. Note that only three of those San Diego victories came by greater than eight points. Look for an inspired effort from Shanahan's revenge-minded Broncos as they improve to 4-1 ATS their last five games on a Monday Night. *Monday Night Main Event
B. BURNS Monday Night NFL Total of the Year (29-13 L42!)
I feel this total is much too high and I'm playing on the Chargers and Broncos to finish UNDER the total.
The earlier meeting at Denver just barely crept above the number. However, that was only due to the Chargers breaking a late long touchdown. Additionally, the final combined score of that game was 44 points, so it would have fallen beneath this evening's larger number. In fact, looking at the last 20 games in this series and we find that NONE of them have had an over/under line this high and that 14 of those games finished with 47 points or less. That includes a 4-2-1 "under" mark over the past seven games. Despite the earlier result, dating back to the start of the 2005 season, the Chargers have seen the UNDER go a healthy 11-5 against divisional opponents. During the same stretch, they've seen both their Monday Night appearances fall below the number and they've also seen the UNDER go 5-2 when playing a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49 . As always, the Chargers, who allow a mere 15.1 points per game at home, will be featuring a heavy dose of Tomlinson. That's particularly true as he's trying to ensure that he finishes with another rushing title. Naturally, when teams run the ball, it helps to chew up the clock. Tomlinson and the Chargers will face a Denver defense which will be anxious for a better performance after getting lit up for 41 points in the previous meeting. We saw several examples of relatively low-scoring games (Carolina/Dallas, Cincy/Clev, GB/Chi, Tenn/NJY, Balt/Seattle) this weekend in matchups which featured one team battling for playoff positioning vs. another team "playing for pride." Look for more of the same tonight as the final combined score falls beneath the generous number and the UNDER moves to 12-6-1 the last 17 times that the Chargers played in the month of December. Monday Night Total of the Year