Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:
1. 300,000♦ Arizona State
2. 100,000♦ Nevada
3. 50,000♦ Seton Hall
1. Arizona State- Several reasons to love the Sun Devils in this match up, but let's start with public perception. At best this game should be a pick'em, but thanks to public perception, Texas is the undeserved favorite here. Yes, they finshed the season 9-3, but it was a tenious 9-3, with 3 of those wins coming by 3 points or less. If you saw this Longhorns team sputter to the finish line during the regular season, then you know exaclty where I'm coming from.
Speaking of sputtering to the finish line... Did you watch the Texas defense collapse over its final 3 games? They allowed 38 ppg on a mind-boggling 534 total yards of offense (incl. 419 passing yards per game)! Guys, needless to say, the Longhorn's pass defense is their achilles heel in this match up, and Arizona State has all the firepower necessary to take advantage of Texas' deficiencies in the secondary.
Rudy Carpenter led the PAC-10 in passing efficiency, tossing 23 TDs and just 8 interceptions. He's got a stable of solid receivers, including deep-threat Jones (17.4 yards per catch, 8 TDs) & solid possesion receiver McGaha (Team leading 52 catches for 751 yards). Look guys, the Longhorns are ranked 110th in passing yards allowed this season, and there's no reason to believe they can stop this ASU offense, period.
Also, while the Longhorns have their share of talented playmakers on the offensive side, its Arizona State's defense which will win that battle. Granted, it'll be hard to stop stud RB Charles, but make no mistake, the Sun Devils allow just 101 rushing yards per game. The difference between their stop-unit and Texas' unit is the Sun Devils actually defend the pass, allowing 232 passing yards on a 17 TD to 17 INT ratio. The duo of S Nolan (6 picks) and CB Tryon (3 picks) will give McCoy fits all night long.
Bottom line, the Sun Devils are thrilled to be here, and I say they play accordingly. Carpenter can and will shred this Texas secondary, while the Sun Devils defense is more than equipped to slow the McCoy and this Longhorns offense. The public is still living in the past with Texas, while we live in the present with an underrated Sun Devils squad in this one.
Take Arizona State plus the points over Texas as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Nevada- Oddsmakers can sleep on Nevada all they want, but I've seen this team play, and I know damn well they'll keep this game within the number and here's why:
First, they have the necessary size with shot-blocking 6'11 F McGee (38 blocks) to at least challenge Hansbrough, who's the key to this Tarheels offense. McGee may not be the offensive weapon Hansbrough is, but he's a better defender and can clean the glass just as well (8.7 rebounds per game). North Carolina has more depth in frontline, but between McGee and Demarshay Johnson the Wolfpack can hang with the Tarheels.
Second, there's no doubt Ellington and Lawson are nasty, but the backcourt trio of Kemp, Fields, and Armon Johsnon actully have better numbers than the Tarheels three top guards (incl. Ginyard). I'm not saying they're more talented, but the fact of the matter remains, Nevada has been averaging 74 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5 games, thanks in large part to the strong play of their backcourt. Also, the return of G Burleson (8 points in 26 minutes against N. Iowa) adds another solid option to their rotation.
Finally, if Nevada were a poor defensive team, then I'd reconsider this play, but the truth is they've been solid, allowing 66 ppg and more importantly just 39% shooting on the road this season. Of course, this is the Tarheels offense we're talking about, and it'll be a major challenge, but being spotted this many points, I say Nevada is more than up for the challenge. Wolfpack grab the cash in Chapel Hill Thursday night!
Take Nevada plus the points over North Carolina in this college hoops match up.
3. Seton Hall- N.C. State has won 3 straight, but it should come as no surprise that all 3 of those games were at home, because the Wolfpack has yet to win a true road game this season. In fact, NC State lost back-to-back away games, getting crushed at Michigan State 81-58, and then losing outright at East Carolina 75-69 as 9-point favorites. Now you want them to hang tight with a Pirates squad that's undefeated at home, averaging nealry 98 ppg there?!
Speaking of Seton Hall, their run-and-gun offense is paced by stud F Brian Laing, and his 20 ppg and 7+ boards per game. He's complemented by G Eugene Harvey, making for a nasty inside/out combo. While the Pirates don't have much depth, their rotation from 1 thru 7 is far and away better than anything the Wolfpack has to offer.
NC State lives and dies by its frontcourt, which is a problem against a team that loves to press the basketball. Sure, Hickson, Grant, and Costner are all good players, but the lack of a solid distributor, especially since lead-assist guy G Degand is out for the season, will doom this team in this match up. You need soldi guard play to beat this Pirates defense, and the Wolfpack just don't have it.
Bottom line, look for Seton Hall's edge on offense to be the difference here, as the Wolfpack have had way too much trouble scoring points on the road this season (63 ppg on 38% shooting) to keep this game competitive. Pirates roll at home in this one!
Take Seton Hall over N.C. State in this college hoops match up.
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