Dr Bob
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
DENVER (+3.0) 24 Minnesota 20
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
Denver is a tough place for visitors to win and the Broncos have a long history of stepping up their game against better teams, going 29-7-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points, including 8-1-1 ATS under coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan?s teams are also 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog, including a straight up win over the Steelers earlier this season. The Broncos are coming home off two bad performances at Houston and at San Diego but Shanahan?s teams are 15-9 ATS after consecutive losses, including 3-1 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more. Minnesota is in a must win situation if they hope to make the playoffs (they also need a Washington loss to Dallas), but teams in must win situations are only 48-77-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and that includes Tennessee?s spread loss last week (and you could also include New Orleans in that must win scenario last week, although their loss to Philly didn?t officially eliminate them from the playoffs). Teams in a must win situation wouldn?t be in that situation if they could win whenever they wanted too, so to think that a team will suddenly play better because they need to makes no sense. However, most amateurs like to bet on teams in must win games and the oddsmakers know it, which is why the line is always higher than it should be and which is why it?s best to play against those teams. My math model favors Minnesota by 1 ? points if Brandon Stokley doesn?t play for the Broncos (he?s their most efficient receiver) and Minnesota applies to a negative 38-80-1 ATS last road game situation that is 2-19 ATS for teams that are exactly 1 game over .500 (and presumably needing to win for any hope of the playoffs). Denver has played much better at home this season, going 4-3 straight up with the losses coming to very good teams Jacksonville, San Diego and Green Bay while notching wins against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Minnesota is not nearly as good as the teams that have been able to beat the Broncos at home this season. Young quarterback Jay Cutler has played much better at home, completing 69.5% of this passes and averaging and 7.6 yards per pass play at home while completing just 57.3% for 6.1 yppp on the road. Cutler has also been better than normal in cold weather (8.5 yppp in 3 games at 40 degrees or colder) and his strong arm allows him to play well in windy conditions (7.4 yppp in 5 games designated as windy). Vikings? starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has struggled on the road (52% completions and just 5.4 yppp) and he was horrible in his only career game in sub-40 degree weather (a pathetic 27 yards on 23 pass plays last year at Green Bay). With temperatures expected to be in the mid to low 30?s and with winds up to 20 miles per hour, I expect Cutler to play much better than Jackson. Minnesota will get their yardage on the ground, but Denver?s defense has improved against the run and the pass in 7 games since making defensive changes and Jackson will still have to play well to win this game. If the fair line is truly Minnesota by 1 ? points then the Broncos are a 57.4% play at +3 points even if there were no favorable situations or team trends supporting Denver. I?ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better).
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NFL Strong Opinions
NY GIANTS (+13.5) 19 New England 26
29-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
It?s tough to pick this game without knowing how long the starters will play for each team, but if I knew each team would play their starters an equal amount then I?d be on the Giants without a doubt even though the Patriots are gunning for a perfect season. That motivation is more than adjusted for in the line, as the Giants would be about a 10 point underdog in this game under normal circumstances. New York applies to a 53-11-2 ATS statistical indicator and a 75-27-2 ATS statistical indicator, so there is plenty of technical support to go along with the line value. But, the line value in this game is only real if the Giants? starters play for as long, or longer, than New England?s starters play and that is an unknown as I write this. New York has the good rushing attack (4.8 ypr) that has given the Patriots? defense problems this season (New England has allowed 4.4 ypr and the Giants bring enough pressure on defense (3.5 sacks per game) to potentially throw off the timing of the Patriots? aerial attack. New England has averaged a more reasonable 28 points per game in their last 5 games, with the weather not as conducive to a wide-open aerial attack, so I think the Giants can keep this close if their starters play a good portion of the game. I?ll consider New York a Strong Opinion in this game.
St. Louis (+6) 22 ARIZONA 23
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Cardinals are now 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more since the beginning of last season after barely escaping with a victory over lowly Atlanta last week. This week the Cardinals are likely to struggle to cover as a favorite again, as they apply to the same negative 36-89-1 ATS situation that applied to them last week. That situation plays against favorites that are playing poorly on defense and Arizona?s defense has struggled since their best two players, DE Bertrand Berry and SS Adrian Wilson were both lost for the season in November. The Cardinals had a decent defense for much of the season but they?ve allowed 6.1 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average team) in 6 games without Berry and Wilson. St. Louis is 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively with a healthy Steven Jackson at running back (he?s been great since returning from a mid-season injury) and with Marc Bulger at quarterback, so the Rams have a 0.5 yppl advantage against Arizona?s banged up defense. Arizona is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback and with both star receivers healthy and the Cardinals have a 0.7 yppl advantage over a Rams defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average. Overall, my math model favors Arizona by 5 ? points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation favors the Rams, who have covered 3 straight road games and are a surprising 6-2-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when visiting a team with a losing record (2-0 ATS this season). I?ll consider St. Louis a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I?d take St. Louis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
DENVER (+3.0) 24 Minnesota 20
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
Denver is a tough place for visitors to win and the Broncos have a long history of stepping up their game against better teams, going 29-7-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points, including 8-1-1 ATS under coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan?s teams are also 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog, including a straight up win over the Steelers earlier this season. The Broncos are coming home off two bad performances at Houston and at San Diego but Shanahan?s teams are 15-9 ATS after consecutive losses, including 3-1 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more. Minnesota is in a must win situation if they hope to make the playoffs (they also need a Washington loss to Dallas), but teams in must win situations are only 48-77-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and that includes Tennessee?s spread loss last week (and you could also include New Orleans in that must win scenario last week, although their loss to Philly didn?t officially eliminate them from the playoffs). Teams in a must win situation wouldn?t be in that situation if they could win whenever they wanted too, so to think that a team will suddenly play better because they need to makes no sense. However, most amateurs like to bet on teams in must win games and the oddsmakers know it, which is why the line is always higher than it should be and which is why it?s best to play against those teams. My math model favors Minnesota by 1 ? points if Brandon Stokley doesn?t play for the Broncos (he?s their most efficient receiver) and Minnesota applies to a negative 38-80-1 ATS last road game situation that is 2-19 ATS for teams that are exactly 1 game over .500 (and presumably needing to win for any hope of the playoffs). Denver has played much better at home this season, going 4-3 straight up with the losses coming to very good teams Jacksonville, San Diego and Green Bay while notching wins against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Minnesota is not nearly as good as the teams that have been able to beat the Broncos at home this season. Young quarterback Jay Cutler has played much better at home, completing 69.5% of this passes and averaging and 7.6 yards per pass play at home while completing just 57.3% for 6.1 yppp on the road. Cutler has also been better than normal in cold weather (8.5 yppp in 3 games at 40 degrees or colder) and his strong arm allows him to play well in windy conditions (7.4 yppp in 5 games designated as windy). Vikings? starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has struggled on the road (52% completions and just 5.4 yppp) and he was horrible in his only career game in sub-40 degree weather (a pathetic 27 yards on 23 pass plays last year at Green Bay). With temperatures expected to be in the mid to low 30?s and with winds up to 20 miles per hour, I expect Cutler to play much better than Jackson. Minnesota will get their yardage on the ground, but Denver?s defense has improved against the run and the pass in 7 games since making defensive changes and Jackson will still have to play well to win this game. If the fair line is truly Minnesota by 1 ? points then the Broncos are a 57.4% play at +3 points even if there were no favorable situations or team trends supporting Denver. I?ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better).
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NFL Strong Opinions
NY GIANTS (+13.5) 19 New England 26
29-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
It?s tough to pick this game without knowing how long the starters will play for each team, but if I knew each team would play their starters an equal amount then I?d be on the Giants without a doubt even though the Patriots are gunning for a perfect season. That motivation is more than adjusted for in the line, as the Giants would be about a 10 point underdog in this game under normal circumstances. New York applies to a 53-11-2 ATS statistical indicator and a 75-27-2 ATS statistical indicator, so there is plenty of technical support to go along with the line value. But, the line value in this game is only real if the Giants? starters play for as long, or longer, than New England?s starters play and that is an unknown as I write this. New York has the good rushing attack (4.8 ypr) that has given the Patriots? defense problems this season (New England has allowed 4.4 ypr and the Giants bring enough pressure on defense (3.5 sacks per game) to potentially throw off the timing of the Patriots? aerial attack. New England has averaged a more reasonable 28 points per game in their last 5 games, with the weather not as conducive to a wide-open aerial attack, so I think the Giants can keep this close if their starters play a good portion of the game. I?ll consider New York a Strong Opinion in this game.
St. Louis (+6) 22 ARIZONA 23
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Cardinals are now 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more since the beginning of last season after barely escaping with a victory over lowly Atlanta last week. This week the Cardinals are likely to struggle to cover as a favorite again, as they apply to the same negative 36-89-1 ATS situation that applied to them last week. That situation plays against favorites that are playing poorly on defense and Arizona?s defense has struggled since their best two players, DE Bertrand Berry and SS Adrian Wilson were both lost for the season in November. The Cardinals had a decent defense for much of the season but they?ve allowed 6.1 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average team) in 6 games without Berry and Wilson. St. Louis is 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively with a healthy Steven Jackson at running back (he?s been great since returning from a mid-season injury) and with Marc Bulger at quarterback, so the Rams have a 0.5 yppl advantage against Arizona?s banged up defense. Arizona is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback and with both star receivers healthy and the Cardinals have a 0.7 yppl advantage over a Rams defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average. Overall, my math model favors Arizona by 5 ? points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation favors the Rams, who have covered 3 straight road games and are a surprising 6-2-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when visiting a team with a losing record (2-0 ATS this season). I?ll consider St. Louis a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I?d take St. Louis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).
