Larry Ness
NBA 24* (1st TY / 2-0 TY in college hoops!)
My 24* play is on the lA Lakers at 9:35 ET. It's been awhile since a Boston/LA game meant this much. The Staples Center will be jumping for this game and the schedule makers couldn't have made things easier for the Lakers. Boston's 25-3 mark is truly impressive, as is their plus-13.6 point-differential (it would be an all-time record!). However, this is Boston's FOURTH game in just five nights. Boston is 3-0 so far on the west coast but come on? The first two wins came at Sacramento and Seattle, which are a combined 20-38. Last night's win in Utah wasn't secured until the game's final seconds and unless you aren't aware, the Jazz have now not only lost 11 of their last 14 but were coming off a Friday night loss in LA to the Lakers (123-109)! Pierce (21.1-5.3-5.0), Allen (19.0-4.0-3.2) and Garnett (18.9-10.5) have been great plus the Celtics are allowing opponents 86.7 PPG and to shoot just 41.7 percent from the field. Both marks lead the league. However, depth is an issue with this team and a FOURTH game in five days (traveling from Salt Lake City, no less), won't help. Phil Jackson was on his team's case when it dropped five of seven from Nov 21-Dec 2. However, the Lakers enter this game having won 10 of 12 (2-point loss at GS and four-point loss at Clev). The Lakers are 9-3 ATS during that run and 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home (lone ATS loss was a backdoor cover by SA). Kobe's sharing the ball more these days, while Bynum's become a credible presence in the middle (12.4-10.0). LA's depth will be a major factor here plus Kobe, who was treated poorly by the Boston fans in LA's 107-94 loss in Boston on Nov 23, just may have some "payback" on his mind. 24* LA Lakers.
Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL (8-1 or 88.9% FB run since Thanksgiving!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET. Barring either the Browns/49ers or Titans/Colts contest resulting in the NFL's first tie since 2002, Cleveland will need Tennessee to lose in Indianapolis on Sunday night in order for the Browns to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2002. That being said, I have little doubt the Browns will "take of business" and then let the chips fall here they may. During the preseason, Browns' fans and many pundits were calling for the Browns to start rookie QB Brady Quinn. Luckily, Romeo Crennel's smarter than the fans and pundits. He dumped Charlie Frye after Week 1 but instead of turning to Quinn, he went Derek Anderson, who's responded beautifully (3,635 passing yards, 28 TD, 18 INT). I know he had a 'meltdown' LW with four INTs but he's led the Browns to a 6-0 SU and ATS mark at home, with a 13-5 ratio and 95.2 rating. Not counting the team's 8-0 "Snow Bowl" win over Buffalo, the Browns have averaged 35.8 PPG at home under Anderson. Lewis is rejuvenated at RB (1,176 / 4.3 / 9 TDs), averaging 110.2 YPG over his last six. Edwards (77 catches / 15 TDs) has had a career year at WR and TE Winslow has finally stayed healthy (78 catches). As for the 49ers, it's the final game of another dreadful season. It's made worse by the fact that Shaun Hill, a breath of 'fresh air' at QB the last three weeks (5-1 ratio / 101.3 rating), is expected to miss with a back problem. The starter is expected to be Chris Weinke, who is 2-17 as an NFL starter! Are you kidding me? Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Cle Browns.
NFL Total of the Year (amazing 15-5 run since '03!)
My 20* is on StL/Az Over at 4:15 ET. We all know there are no guarantees in life but today's StL/Az game as all the markings of a shootout and a 'dead over!' A victory for Ken Whisenhunt's 7-8 Arizona team on Sunday would give Arizona its best record since the 1998 team went 9-7 and reached the postseason. With a loss, the Cardinals will have finished off their ninth consecutive losing season and 18th in 20 seasons since moving from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988. Meanwhile, the Rams come to the desert seeking to sidestep their worst mark since finishing 3-13 as the Los Angeles Rams in 1991! You can be sure that Whisenhunt WANTS an 8-8 finish! However, the Cards can only win in a shootout. Injuries have taken their two best pass rushers (Berry and Okeafor), their best overall defensive player (SS Wilson) plus staring CB Green. Consider this. The Cards have allowed 30.8 PPG over their last six games, allowing 37 to a San Fran team which had entered without topping 17 points in its previous nine games and 27 points to an Atlanta team averaging under 11 PPG over its previous five! The Cards will score though, as Warner's playing with confidence (meaning he feels no pressure to win these days) and been outstanding at home (68.3% / 11-4 ratio / 101.2 rating). It doesn't hurt that in Fitzgerald (89 catches) and the now healthy Boldin (13 catches and two TDs LW), he may have the best WR duo in the NFL? The Rams are no longer "the Greatest Show on Turf" but Bulger is back healthy, as are WRs Bruce and Bennett to join the ever-impressive Holt (86 catches and over 1,000 yards again TY). Also, RB Jackson has been healthy since the team's Week 9 bye, averaging 96.1 YPG with 27 catches the last seven weeks. In the perfect conditions of Glendale, Arizona, these two teams should top 70 points! NFL Total of the Year 20* StL/Az Over.
Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. The Texans have always been a "thorn in the side" of the Jaguars. Jacksonville finished 8-8 last year, losing BOTH games to Houston. The Jags were highly motived earlier this year in their Week 6 meeting, winning 37-17 (I had the Jags as a LEGEND winner!). In this Week 17 matchup, the Jags have nothing to play for. They have their playoff spot secured and enter playing about as well as any team outside of Foxboro (11-4 SU and ATS, with SEVEN straight ATS wins). However, Del Rio has said RB Taylor will be rested and Jones-Drew will be used sparingly. That means either Greg Jones (28-48 on the year) or LaBrandion Toefield (6-12!) will get most of the carries. While I haven't see a direct quote, I can't imagine Del Rio will risk Garrard (18-3 ratio / 102.2 rating) for very long either, especially with Houston's Mario Williams playing so well in the second half of the year. Backup Quinn Gray (just 52.4% / 6-5 ratio / 72.1 rating) is quite a drop-ff at QB! On the other hand, Gary Kubiak has a chance to get the Texans to 8-8, which would be the best record in franchise history. Houston is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS all-time vs Jacksonville at home) and 5-2 SU at home this year. That includes three straight wins and covers, beating the Saints (23-10), Bucs (28-14) and Broncos (31-13). Rosenfels has been solid at QB and the return of Andre Johnson (40 catches and five TDs in six games), makes all the difference in the world for this offense! In the end, this could be Houston's starters topping the Jags' reserves.
Las Vegas Insider
Houston Texans