Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon:
Tonight's Game...
1. 200,000♦ Titans
2. 50,000♦ Alabama
1. Titans- While playing against the Colts at home has been a dangerous proposition this season (5-2 ATS there), season finales are completely different story, as they're just 2-12 ATS over their last 14, not to mention 0-6 ATS against the division in that spot. We'll take it a step futher, as Tennessee has covered 3 straight against the Indy, including a 22-20 cover as a 7-point dog earlier this season. But you guys know I rely on a lot more than just trends, so let's break down some match ups...
Biggest mismatch is the Titans outstanding run game against a Colts rush defense which has again faded down the stretch, allowing 132 rushing yards per game over their last 4 weeks. We saw the Colts struggle (and fail to cover) against both run-oriented Jacksonville and Oakland, and they'll struggle again tonight.
Of course, we can't mention this contest without mentioning the obvious motivational disparity between these two teams. Colts are the # 2 seed and have a bye, therefore there's literally nothing for them to play for this week. Dungy has had no qualms about resting Manning and company for most of the season finale, therefore, we shouldn't expect much different tonight.
The Titans on the other hand, are in a "win and your in" situation, which is precisely the kind of motivation that I look for in Week 17 match ups. Facing a Jim Sorgi led Colts for most of the game is music to my ears, as the Titans starting defense will play the entire game, and that's a mismatch if I've ever seen one.
Bottom line, based on the number in this contest, its clear oddsmakers do not believe Manning will be on the field for very long. If that's the case, how can you not like this Titans team, with a full head of steam and their destiny in their hands, against the Colts 2nd and 3rd stringers?! Not only have the Titans proven a tough match up for the Colts over their last 3 match ups, but they have the superior motivational edge against an Indy team that could really care less.
Take the Titans comfortably over the Colts as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Alabama- Obviously, the Saban-era hasn't started the way Tide fans had hoped for, sitting at 6-6 and playing in December's Independence Bowl instead of in January. However, if Saban thought his team's loss to UL Monroe was bad, a loss here to Colorado would be devastating for the program and his reputation. His tremedous ego simply couldn't take that, and I believe he's prepared more for this game than any other this season (and definately more than he prepared in the pros).
There's no doubt Saban can coach, and given the extra time, its going to a lot for Cody Hawkins and this Buffalo offense to get anything done against a well-prepared Crimson Tide defense, especially considering they're allowing just 18 on 257 total yards over their last 3 games.
If you watched Alabama down the stretch, you know its not their defense that's the problem, but their offense, scoring a laughable 12 ppg over their last 3 contests! Lucky for the Tide, they get just what the doctor ordered in a Buffaloes defense that's been mediocre over their last 3 games, allowing a mind-boggling 45 ppg on 519 total yards. If Saban can't find a way to beat this Colorado defense with all the time he's had to prepare, then he might as well hang it up, plain and simple.
Bottom line, Colorado overachieved this season, while Alabama underachieved. However, with the spotlight clearly on the Tide and Nick Saban in this game, Alabama must deliver. There's no doubt they have the superior defense, and also the playmakers neccessary to beat this Colorado stop-unit... Now it comes down to execution, and I say they get it done Sunday night in Shreveport.
Take Alabama over Colorado in tonight's Independence Bowl.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Chargers
2. 50,000♦ Redskins
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